{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — attribution required: link to https://twoweeks.lol",
 "retrieved": "2026-10-27",
 "schema_version": "2.0",
 "schema": "https://twoweeks.lol/data/schema.json",
 "claims": [
  {
   "claim_id": "c2",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#highway-on-ramp-to-exit-without-touching-controls-2015",
   "title": "Highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls within a year (2014)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2014-06-03",
   "first_deadline": "2015-06-03",
   "current_deadline": "2015-06-03",
   "resolved_date": "2019-04-03",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Jun 2015",
    "Oct 2015"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 296,
     "date_made": "2014-06-03",
     "deadline": "2015-06-03",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists without touching any controls.",
     "source": "https://electrek.co/2014/06/04/teslas-2014-shareholder-meeting-video/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#highway-on-ramp-to-exit-without-touching-controls-2015"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 2,
     "date_made": "2014-10-01",
     "deadline": "2015-10-01",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJmhpgW0Dmc",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#90-autopilot-capable-by-2015"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised in June 2014 that within a year a Tesla would go from highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls. Navigate on Autopilot reached the maneuver in April 2019, nearly four years late, but still required hands on the wheel. Tesla's current Model Y owner's manual (fetched Oct 26 2026) says Full Self-Driving (Supervised) follows on- and off-ramps while the cabin camera monitors attentiveness rather than requiring hands on the wheel. The 2014 hands-off highway claim is now met, years late.",
    "url": "https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB60804-9CEA-4F4B-8B04-09B991368DC5.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c3",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#cross-country-autonomous-drive",
   "title": "LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2016-10-19",
   "first_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-01-22",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 3,
     "date_made": "2016-10-19",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vjGEEF_p5E",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#cross-country-autonomous-drive"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised a no-touch LA-to-NYC full-autonomy demonstration by end of 2017, with the car parking itself at the end. Tesla never performed that demo. Eight years past the deadline, consumers finally did the substance of it on FSD v14: David Moss completed the first zero-disengagement coast-to-coast run (LA to Myrtle Beach, Dec 30 2025), and on Jan 22 2026 Alex Roy's team drove the literal LA-to-NYC Cannonball route — 3,081 miles, zero interventions, through winter snow and ice. Scored PARTIAL, not delivered: the runs used FSD (Supervised) with a licensed driver in the seat, humans plugged in at every charging stop, and the demo Musk actually promised — an unsupervised Tesla with no one needed at the wheel — has still never happened.",
    "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/01/24/tesla-fsd-just-drove-from-l-a-to-nyc-with-zero-help/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c4",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-feature-complete",
   "title": "FSD ‘feature complete’",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2019-10-23",
   "first_deadline": "2020-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2020-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2020-10-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019"
   ],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 4,
     "date_made": "2019-10-23",
     "deadline": "2020-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving feature this year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/10/24/tesla-inc-tsla-q3-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-feature-complete"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said on the Oct 23, 2019 Q3 call that Tesla would have an early-access, feature-complete FSD release in 2019. No feature-complete FSD was released by end of 2019; on the Jan 29, 2020 Q4 call Musk admitted Tesla only 'got pretty close' and that feature-complete might come 'in a few months.' The limited FSD Beta did not start until October 2020. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): the specific promised event — a limited, supervised, early-access release of 'feature-complete' FSD — genuinely happened on Oct 20, 2020, when Tesla shipped the first FSD Beta to Early Access members, ~10 months after 'this year.' Partial rather than delivered-late because what shipped was a supervised city-streets beta for a small group, far from the capability the phrase implied.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/22/after-release-of-teslas-full-self-driving-beta-elon-musk-promises-roughly-2000-price-hike/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c5",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#million-robotaxis",
   "title": "1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2020-04-22",
   "current_deadline": "2020-04-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 5,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2020-04-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over the air update; that's all it takes.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#million-robotaxis"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "At Autonomy Day on April 22, 2019 Musk said Tesla would have over a million robotaxis on the road by 2020. There were zero Tesla robotaxis on the road in 2020. Fetched Oct 5 2026: CNBC Oct 3 reports 169 Texas-authorized Cybercabs plus 420 Model Y robotaxis on the Texas registry — hundreds, not one million, and more than six years late. Still missed.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/03/tesla-cybercab-pressure-to-expand-after-rocky-first-month-in-austin.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c6",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#autonomous-robotaxis",
   "title": "Autonomous robotaxis in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-09-03",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "Jun 2025",
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 4,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 6,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#autonomous-robotaxis"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 9,
     "date_made": "2020-04-12",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1249210220200550405",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-functionality-in-2020"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 12,
     "date_made": "2025-06-11",
     "deadline": "2025-06-22",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Tentatively, June 22.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932591896939147494",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-launch-austin"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 97,
     "date_made": "2025-10-22",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#driverless-robotaxis-austin"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk predicted autonomous Tesla robotaxis in 2020 (April 22 2019). None operated in 2020. Tesla's first robotaxi pilot launched June 22 2025 with an in-car monitor; public rides with no human in the vehicle began Jan 22 2026. Re-graded delivered-late (2026-10-08): Tesla opened public Cybercab robotaxi rides with no steering wheel or pedals in Austin on Sep 3 2026, and unsupervised Model Y robotaxis already ran in six cities (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa). The Verge (Sep 4, fetched Oct 8) counted 256 unsupervised vehicles across those cities at launch; Wikipedia Tesla Robotaxi lists unsupervised commercial service in those six metros plus Cybercab added Sep 3. The 2020 existence claim is met, six years late. Scale remains a separate card (#5, missed).",
    "url": "https://www.theverge.com/transportation/989501/tesla-cybercab-launch-robotaxi-austin-musk"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c7",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#no-steering-wheel-cars",
   "title": "Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "current_deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-23",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 7,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2021-04-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#no-steering-wheel-cars"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised a car with no steering wheel or pedals in about two years (~2021). Tesla started production of the Cybercab — no steering wheel, no pedals — at Giga Texas in April 2026, about five years late. Fetched Sep 26 2026: Wikipedia records paid public Cybercab rides in Austin from Sep 4 2026 and unsupervised FSD v15 on the Cybercab fleet. The previous partial caveat (no unsupervised operation, no customer rides) is stale. Literal 'make a car with no steering wheel or pedals' delivered late.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercab"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c8",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/",
   "title": "Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2014-10-10",
   "first_deadline": "2018-06-01",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 12,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Oct 2020",
    "2018",
    "Oct 2018",
    "Jun 2018",
    "Apr 2019",
    "2019",
    "2020",
    "2021",
    "2022",
    "2023",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 17,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 374,
     "date_made": "2014-10-10",
     "deadline": "2020-10-10",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Like maybe five or six years from now, I think we'll be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjq6tXRKfUQ&t=218s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#sleep-in-tesla-wake-at-destination-in-5-6-years"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 153,
     "date_made": "2015-03-17",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDm6Snkle70",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#autonomous-driving-solved-problem-2015"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 297,
     "date_made": "2015-10-14",
     "deadline": "2018-10-14",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think Tesla will be able to... will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years. So maybe a bit sooner.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73_Qjez1MbI&t=2752s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#full-autonomy-in-about-three-years-2015"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 299,
     "date_made": "2016-06-01",
     "deadline": "2018-06-01",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we're basically less than two years away from complete autonomy. Wow, complete. Safer than a human. However, regulators will take I think at least another year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4&t=4799s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#less-than-two-years-from-complete-autonomy-2016"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 300,
     "date_made": "2017-04-28",
     "deadline": "2019-04-28",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think that's about two years.",
     "source": "https://www.entrepreneur.com/living/watch-and-read-the-transcript-of-elon-musks-boring-ted/293752",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#sleep-in-your-tesla-in-about-two-years-ted-2017"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 301,
     "date_made": "2018-03-11",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think probably by end of next year, self driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100 to 200% safer than a person by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzlUyrccbos&t=2057s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#self-driving-all-modes-by-end-of-2019-sxsw"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 388,
     "date_made": "2019-04-12",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "But I'd say I'd be shocked if it's not next year at the latest that having a human intervene will decrease safety decrease.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI&t=1342s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#human-intervention-decreases-safety-by-2020"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 363,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And then we start to expect to get regulatory approval, at least in some jurisdictions for that towards the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE&t=9938s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-regulatory-approval-some-jurisdictions-end-of-2020"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 10,
     "date_made": "2019-10-23",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available until the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/10/24/tesla-inc-tsla-q3-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-reliable-enough-for-no-attention"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 8,
     "date_made": "2020-07-09",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdpZUp4I-H8",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#level-5-autonomy-complete-by-end"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 302,
     "date_made": "2021-01-27",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#car-drives-itself-better-than-human-in-2021"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 177,
     "date_made": "2022-01-26",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#shocked-if-fsd-not-safer-than-human-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 293,
     "date_made": "2023-07-19",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I know I am the boy who cried FSD, but I think we will be better than human by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/19/tesla-tsla-earnings-q2-2023.html",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-better-than-human-end-2023"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 184,
     "date_made": "2024-10-10",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 303,
     "date_made": "2025-04-22",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination and I'm confident that will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-1Q25-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#sleep-in-car-many-us-cities-end-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 304,
     "date_made": "2025-04-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-1Q25-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#millions-of-teslas-fully-autonomous-2h-2026"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 305,
     "date_made": "2025-07-23",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#unsupervised-fsd-personal-use-end-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said unsupervised FSD would be available for personal use in certain areas by end of 2025. At year end, customer FSD was still 'Full Self-Driving (Supervised)' everywhere.",
    "url": "https://insideevs.com/news/766820/tesla-promises-unsupervised-fsd-again-2025/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c11",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-price-increase",
   "title": "FSD price will keep increasing",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2020-05-18",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 11,
     "date_made": "2020-05-18",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. At that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1262530589506273280",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-price-increase"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk predicted on May 18, 2020 that FSD's price would keep rising toward a value 'in excess of $100,000' as it neared regulatory-approved full self-driving. The one-time FSD price instead peaked at $15,000 in September 2022, then fell to $12,000 (2023) and $8,000 (2024), and Tesla shifted new buyers to a $99/month subscription by February 2026. The price never approached $100,000 and FSD never achieved approved full autonomy.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/958/tesla-fsd-price-increase-history"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c13",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#tesla-1000-robotaxis-austin-within-few-months",
   "title": "Around 1,000 Tesla robotaxis in Austin within a few months of launch",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-05-20",
   "first_deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Sep 2025",
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 471,
     "date_made": "2025-05-20",
     "deadline": "2025-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "it would probably be at a thousand within a few months",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vizKY0kj01U&t=64s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#tesla-1000-robotaxis-austin-within-few-months"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 13,
     "date_made": "2025-10-31",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6_VfR-CyuM",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxis-metro-areas"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 217,
     "date_made": "2025-11-26",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1993538258253607260",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-fleet-double-dec-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk pledged (Nov 26, 2025) the Austin robotaxi fleet would 'roughly double next month' — after quietly trimming the broader goal from 500 vehicles to about 60. It never doubled on that deadline. Crowdsourced trackers built from Tesla's own app counted ~29 unique robotaxis at the pledge and only 32 by late December 2025 — three more, not a doubling. As of August 25 2026 the picture is mixed but still not a clean later doubling of the original unique-count metric: Texas AV filings list ~188 registered Tesla AVs (Aug 23), Robotaxi Tracker logged 54 unique unsupervised Austin cars over two weeks (The Verge, Aug 20), and Electrek's Aug 24 tracking still puts the active unsupervised fleet at roughly two dozen. The program has not been renounced, so the overdue clock is still ticking.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/08/24/tesla-cybercab-exclusive-access-robotaxi-sept-3/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c14",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxis-in-half-of-us-population",
   "title": "Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-07-23",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 14,
     "date_made": "2025-07-23",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxis-in-half-of-us-population"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 129,
     "date_made": "2026-01-28",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-quarter-to-half-us-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 22 2026: Tesla's Robotaxi safety report (Oct 21) lists unsupervised miles in six metros across two states — Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston) and Florida (Miami, Orlando, Tampa) — plus safety-driver Bay Area service. Coming soon: Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, San Antonio. Elluswamy on the Q3 call: 'We do six cities now.' Six unsupervised metros is a small fraction of US population — not a quarter to half of the United States. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4860/tesla-names-next-robotaxi-cities-shares-miles-driven-safety-data"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c16",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#master-plan-deux-shared-fleet",
   "title": "Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2016-07-20",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "no date",
    "2022",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 160,
     "date_made": "2016-07-20",
     "deadline": null,
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.",
     "source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#master-plan-deux-shared-fleet"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 77,
     "date_made": "2020-01-29",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/01/30/tesla-inc-tsla-q4-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#tesla-network-sharing"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 16,
     "date_made": "2025-07-23",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla fleet.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#owner-cars-added-to-robotaxi-network"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 16 2026: Tesla owners still cannot add or subtract personal cars from the Robotaxi network. Tesla's Robotaxi First Responder Interaction Plan (v1.5, Sep 3) says 'All Robotaxi vehicles are owned and operated by Tesla at this time.' A Sep 3 Cybercab fleet-interest form is for commercial fleet buyers, not personal-owner Airbnb-style add/subtract. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://dockduty.com/blog/tesla-network-explained.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c18",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-starting-at-39-900",
   "title": "Cybertruck starting at $39,900",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2019-11-21",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 18,
     "date_made": "2019-11-21",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "Starting price of $39,900.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=464puoD09dM",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-starting-at-39-900"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised a $39,900 starting Cybertruck in 2019. At the Nov 30 2023 launch the base price was $60,990 and the cheapest model later rose to ~$100,000; the $39,900 price was never available. Re-graded cancelled (2026-07-05 audit): Musk publicly renounced the price at the Aug 4, 2022 shareholder meeting ('the specs and pricing will be different... a little bit of bad news'), and the truck launched Nov 2023 from $60,990 with the cheapest trim later discontinued. The $39,900 Cybertruck is an abandoned promise, not a pending one.",
    "url": "https://www.carscoops.com/2022/08/musk-shares-bad-news-that-cybertruck-prices-and-specs-will-change/amp/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c19",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/",
   "title": "Cybertruck volume production in 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2021-01-27",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-11-30",
   "times_moved": 4,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2022",
    "2023",
    "late 2023",
    "Sep 2023",
    "Nov 2023"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 19,
     "date_made": "2021-01-27",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 397,
     "date_made": "2023-04-19",
     "deadline": "2023-09-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "It's a great product and we're completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga, Texas and we're anticipating having a delivery event, a great delivery event, probably in Q3.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MVIWeU36ZY&t=484s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-delivery-event-q3-2023"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 433,
     "date_made": "2023-10-31",
     "deadline": "2023-11-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We plan to drop first deliveries next month.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAJUwiAqW38&t=134s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-first-deliveries-november-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On the Q4 2020 call (Jan 27 2021) Musk said he expected Cybertruck volume production in 2022. No Cybertrucks were produced in 2022; first deliveries came Nov 30 2023, with volume ramping afterward.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2023/11/30/tesla-cybertruck-range-pricing-deliveries/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c20",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-250-000-units-year-by",
   "title": "Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2023-10-01",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 20,
     "date_made": "2023-10-01",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/10/18/tesla-tsla-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-250-000-units-year-by"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla sold only 20,237 Cybertrucks in all of 2025 — down 48% from 38,965 in 2024 — versus the predicted 250,000/year run rate. Q4 2025 registrations were further inflated by ~1,339 trucks bought by Musk's own companies (SpaceX alone took 1,279).",
    "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-sales-elon-musk/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c21",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/",
   "title": "Tesla Semi production in 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2017-11-16",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-11-30",
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019",
    "2023",
    "2024",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 21,
     "date_made": "2017-11-16",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g&t=1487s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 330,
     "date_made": "2022-08-09",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1557236629412007937",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#tesla-semi-2022-cybertruck-2023"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 22,
     "date_made": "2022-10-19",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/10/20/tesla-tsla-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#tesla-semi-volume-production-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said the Semi would start shipping in 2022 and Cybertruck in 2023. Tesla delivered the first Semis to PepsiCo on December 1 2022 and the first Cybertrucks on November 30 2023.",
    "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-delivers-first-tesla-semi-trucks-2022-12-02/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c24",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/",
   "title": "Tesla Roadster enters production",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2014-06-03",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 8,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019",
    "2020",
    "2022",
    "2023",
    "2024",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2027",
    "2028"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 451,
     "date_made": "2014-06-03",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "in terms of a next generation roadster that's probably, I don't know, five years away",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDwEFvOh9co&t=3243s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#next-gen-roadster-in-five-years-2014"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 24,
     "date_made": "2017-11-16",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We expected this to be available in 2020.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g&t=2009s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 497,
     "date_made": "2026-10-15",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We enter production in 2028.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt5p-_tE8d0",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#tesla-roadster-enters-production-2028"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until December 31, 2028. The Oct 15 2026 McGregor event was an unveil and flying demo, not the start of production.",
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt5p-_tE8d0"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c31",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/",
   "title": "Year of the solar roof 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-03-14",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 31,
     "date_made": "2019-03-14",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb_Wn6K0uVs",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk called 2019 'the year of the solar roof' at the Mar 14 2019 Model Y unveil. It was not — installations were minimal (estimated under ~1,000 total integrated solar roofs by 2021), and Tesla badly missed its 1,000-per-week install target. Tesla then discontinued Solar Roof in August 2026 (site redirects to panels; installers told new tile orders are closed). The 2019 year claim stays missed.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/21/teslas-solar-roof-is-dead-heres-what-went-wrong/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c32",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#500-000-cars-in-2019",
   "title": "500,000 cars in 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-02-20",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2020-12-31",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "end of 2019",
    "Apr 2020 (Apr 14 2019: 'over 500k cars in next 12 months')"
   ],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 32,
     "date_made": "2019-02-20",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1098013283372589056",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#500-000-cars-in-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered approximately 367,500 vehicles in 2019 and produced roughly 365,000, far below the ~500,000 Musk tweeted in February 2019. The shortfall confirms the production claim was not met for the calendar year. Re-graded delivered-late (2026-07-05 audit): 2019 fell short (~365,300 produced / ~367,500 delivered), but Tesla hit the promised half-million one year late — 509,737 vehicles produced and 499,550 delivered in calendar 2020, reported Jan 2, 2021. The milestone was achieved, not missed forever.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c33",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/",
   "title": "20 million cars per year by 2030",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2020-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 33,
     "date_made": "2020-09-22",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent execution.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1310486616075579393",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 19 2026: Tesla's Oct 2 Q3 print was 464,391 produced / 486,532 delivered (~1.85 million/year run-rate; YTD 1,324,681 through three quarters). The company has still never sold 20 million vehicles in a single year. Tesla IR sell-side consensus for 2030 is about 2.7 million deliveries, not 20 million. Deadline Dec 31 2030. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://electronmotion.com/2026/10/02/tesla-q3-2026-deliveries/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c34",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#uncrewed-mars-mission",
   "title": "Uncrewed Mars landing 2018",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2016-04-27",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2018",
    "2022",
    "2026 window",
    "2028-29 window (Moonshots Dec 2025: 'a low probability shot... 29 then')"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 34,
     "date_made": "2016-04-27",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details to come",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/725364699303301120",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#uncrewed-mars-mission"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 164,
     "date_made": "2017-09-29",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for a launch in about five years. Five years seems like a long time to me... That's our goal: to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#bfr-cargo-ships-to-mars-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 88,
     "date_made": "2024-09-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1837908705683059166",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#uncrewed-starships-to-mars-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk restated the 'uncrewed Starships to Mars in the 2026 window' plan several times (2024–2025), but on Feb 9, 2026 he deprioritized Mars by ~5–7 years to focus on a 2027 uncrewed lunar landing — scrubbing the 2026 Mars attempt before the November window opened.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c35",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/",
   "title": "Humans on Mars",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2011-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "current_deadline": "2036-01-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 8,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Apr 2021",
    "2024",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2024",
    "2028",
    "2029",
    "2031",
    "Jan 2036"
   ],
   "statements": 5,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 145,
     "date_made": "2011-04-22",
     "deadline": "2021-04-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiPJsI8pl8Q",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#humans-on-mars-best-case-10-years-2011"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 35,
     "date_made": "2016-06-02",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 165,
     "date_made": "2017-09-29",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly four ships — two of which would be crewed.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#bfr-crewed-mars-flights-2024"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 39,
     "date_made": "2025-03-15",
     "deadline": "2031-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1900774290682683612",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#humans-on-mars-2029-possibly-2031"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 346,
     "date_made": "2026-01-22",
     "deadline": "2036-01-22",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Don't want to get complacent, but if civilization keeps advancing, humans will reach Mars in 5 to 10 years.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014435250214986003",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#humans-reach-mars-in-5-to-10-years-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: Wikipedia Human mission to Mars: only robotic landers, rovers and a helicopter have been on Mars; as of 2026 the farthest humans have been is the Moon (Apollo and Artemis II flyby). No crewed Mars landing. Deadline 2036. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c40",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-reaches-orbit",
   "title": "Starship reaches orbit",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-09-28",
   "first_deadline": "2022-02-28",
   "current_deadline": "2022-02-28",
   "resolved_date": "2026-09-28",
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "2022",
    "Feb 2022",
    "2023"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 40,
     "date_made": "2019-09-28",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOpMrVnjYeY",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-reaches-orbit"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 392,
     "date_made": "2021-11-17",
     "deadline": "2022-02-28",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably means a launch attempt in January or perhaps February.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLC5W53Fsyg&t=2383s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-attempt-jan-feb-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 459,
     "date_made": "2023-04-29",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-WQoC2Pl9U&t=1911s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-reaches-orbit-in-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk wanted Starship to reach orbit in less than six months from the Sep 28, 2019 Starship Update (later restated through 2022). Flights 1–13 stayed suborbital; Flight 3 (Mar 14, 2024) first hit orbital velocity. Re-graded delivered-late (2026-10-10): Starship Flight 14 on Sep 28, 2026 performed an orbital-insertion burn about 25 minutes after liftoff, entered a 262×275 km low Earth orbit, and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites — the first time Starship reached Earth orbit, years after the 2022 deadline. SpaceX shortened the planned six-orbit coast after an engine-out and splashed down north of Hawaii after about three hours.",
    "url": "https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starship-achieves-orbit-for-the-first-time/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c42",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-human-trials",
   "title": "First human Neuralink implant",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-07-16",
   "first_deadline": "2021-05-07",
   "current_deadline": "2021-05-07",
   "resolved_date": "2024-01-28",
   "times_moved": 7,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "2022",
    "2023",
    "May 2021",
    "2022",
    "May 2023",
    "2023",
    "Feb 2024"
   ],
   "statements": 6,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 42,
     "date_made": "2019-07-16",
     "deadline": "2023-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We hope to have this aspirationally in a human patient before the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA77zsJ31nA",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-human-trials"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 428,
     "date_made": "2020-05-07",
     "deadline": "2021-05-07",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we may be able to implant a neuralink in less than a year in a person",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcYjXbSJBN8&t=950s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-in-a-person-within-a-year-2020"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 456,
     "date_made": "2021-12-21",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we're hoping to do our first neuralink into a human next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvGnw1sHh9M&t=4661s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#first-neuralink-human-in-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 438,
     "date_made": "2022-11-30",
     "deadline": "2023-05-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we think probably in about six months we should be able to have a first neural link in a human",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YreDYmXTYi4&t=1456s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#first-neuralink-human-in-six-months-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 398,
     "date_made": "2023-06-16",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Hopefully later this year we'll do our first human device implantation.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyYQTr0kiUo&t=3626s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#first-neuralink-human-implant-in-2023"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 425,
     "date_made": "2023-11-29",
     "deadline": "2024-02-29",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we're getting ready to do the, to do the first implants and hopefully in a few months",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BfMuHDfGJI&t=5043s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#first-neuralink-human-implant-in-a-few-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "At its July 16 2019 launch event Neuralink, with Musk presenting, said it aimed to start testing on human patients in 2020 pending FDA approval. That did not happen; FDA human-trial approval came in May 2023 and the first human Neuralink implant was performed in late January 2024 (announced by Musk Jan 29 2024). The 2020 target was missed by more than three years.",
    "url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/07/17/238818/elon-musks-neuralink-says-its-nearly-ready-for-the-first-human-volunteers/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c46",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#quadriplegics-control-computers-faster-than-people",
   "title": "Quadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-11-30",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 46,
     "date_made": "2022-11-30",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YreDYmXTYi4",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#quadriplegics-control-computers-faster-than-people"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Not achieved by the 2025 deadline. Neuralink participants set BCI records (first patient Noland Arbaugh reached 8-9+ bits per second on Webgrid, roughly double the prior brain-interface record), but the median able-bodied user scores around 10 BPS — patients approached, and did not surpass, people using their hands. Musk himself was still predicting in November 2025 that recipients would 'soon' beat humans at fast-reaction tasks.",
    "url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c48",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#thousand-optimus-factories",
   "title": "1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-06-13",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 4,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 48,
     "date_made": "2024-06-13",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=remZ1KMR_Z4",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#thousand-optimus-factories"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 178,
     "date_made": "2024-07-22",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1815329637188202550",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-genuinely-useful-internal-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 49,
     "date_made": "2025-01-29",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#5-000-optimus-robots-in-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 225,
     "date_made": "2025-04-02",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1907326226517168139",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#legion-of-optimus-robots-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No 'legion' materialized: against a ~5,000-unit target, Tesla built only 'hundreds' by mid-2025, and Musk admitted in Jan 2026 that zero Optimus robots were doing useful factory work.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c50",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/",
   "title": "Optimus high-volume external production 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-07-01",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2026",
    "2027"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 50,
     "date_made": "2024-07-01",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside customers. That will be a production Version 2 of Optimus.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/07/24/tesla-tsla-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 509,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. That's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-outside-customers-end-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c51",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-under-20000",
   "title": "Optimus under $20000",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2022-09-30",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2030"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 100,
     "date_made": "2022-09-30",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-under-20000"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 51,
     "date_made": "2024-10-10",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-20-30k-price-point"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 19 2026: $20,000–$30,000 remains Tesla's stated long-term / at-scale Optimus target, not a current sticker. Optimus is not on public sale; Wikipedia still has no consumer price and says Gen 3 was unrevealed as of September 2026. Deadline 2030. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c52",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-1-million-units-year-in",
   "title": "Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-10-01",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 4,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2030",
    "Jul 2030",
    "2026",
    "no date",
    "2027"
   ],
   "statements": 5,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 52,
     "date_made": "2024-10-01",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/live/pSFvOUswFwA",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-1-million-units-year-in"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 421,
     "date_made": "2025-07-23",
     "deadline": "2030-07-23",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'll be surprised if at the end of 5 years you know 60 months from now if we are not roughly making 100,000 Optimus robots a month",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLjG7a-NX7U&t=2033s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#100000-optimus-a-month-by-2030"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 101,
     "date_made": "2025-10-23",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start towards the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-million-production"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 126,
     "date_made": "2026-01-28",
     "deadline": null,
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory with a long-term goal of having a million units a year. I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#fremont-optimus-factory-million-units"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 510,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We do have the vast majority of a million unit per line production line landed in Fremont right now. I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to 20,000 units a week.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-fremont-20000-a-week-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c53",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#80-of-tesla-value-will-be",
   "title": "80% of Tesla value will be Optimus",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-09-01",
   "first_deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 53,
     "date_made": "2025-09-01",
     "deadline": "2035-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1962618811141812475",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#80-of-tesla-value-will-be"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 22 2026: Tesla Q3 2026 revenue is still auto-dominated ($20.6B automotive vs $2.9B energy vs $4.6B services). Optimus is listed as Early Ramp in Fremont with no disclosed robot revenue. Analysts still treat Optimus as option value, not ~80% of Tesla. Deadline 2035. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/21/tesla-stars-optimus-robot-production-in-california-as-profit-falls-43/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c55",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#global-starlink-coverage-by-end-of",
   "title": "Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2021-02-22",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-02-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 55,
     "date_made": "2021-02-22",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1363774017606348802",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#global-starlink-coverage-by-end-of"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk tweeted Feb 22, 2021 that Starlink would cover 'most of Earth by end of year, all by next year.' At end of 2021 coverage was only North America and parts of Europe; Starlink announced true global coverage (via laser-linked satellites) only in early 2023, with global maritime service announced in February 2023. Date corrected in the 2026-07-05 verdict audit: true global coverage is properly dated to SpaceX's official global-coverage announcement for maritime service on Feb 20, 2023 (laser-linked v1.5 shell complete), matching this entry's own account — the prior 2022-12-01 date matched no documented milestone.",
    "url": "https://smartmaritimenetwork.com/2023/02/20/starlink-announces-global-coverage-for-maritime-service/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c57",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-boat",
   "title": "Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-09-29",
   "first_deadline": "2023-11-30",
   "current_deadline": "2023-11-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 57,
     "date_made": "2022-09-29",
     "deadline": "2023-11-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren't too choppy",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1575508498430820352",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-boat"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Still disputed. No 'boat mode' or certified water-crossing capability has ever shipped, and multiple owner reports of water-stranded Cybertrucks stand unrebutted. No new developments found in 2026 reporting. Re-graded missed (2026-07-05 audit): there is nothing genuinely contested here. No boat capability ever shipped — Wade Mode (32-inch depth, brief shallow fording) is explicitly not boat mode, and real-world attempts ended with a Cybertruck stuck in a river (Apr 2025) and one disabled and taking on water in Grapevine Lake (May 2026). A clean miss, not a dispute.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/05/19/tesla-cybertruck-owner-believed-elon-musk-lake-jail/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c58",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-supervised-safer-than-human-drivers",
   "title": "FSD supervised safer than human drivers",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "disputed",
   "first_said": "2023-11-23",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 58,
     "date_made": "2023-11-23",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "disputed",
     "quote": "Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1727484899374899687",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-supervised-safer-than-human-drivers"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Still disputed. Tesla's 2025 Impact Report (its latest official data) claims 0.19 major incidents per million miles with FSD (Supervised) engaged vs 0.46 for Teslas driven manually and 1.51 for the US average (minor incidents: 0.64 vs 1.39 vs 4.50). Taken at face value that is 'safer than human' — but the long-standing methodological critiques still apply and remain unresolved: the data is self-reported by Tesla, FSD miles skew toward easier driving conditions, incident definitions differ from NHTSA's, and no independent audit of the comparison exists. Tesla's own numbers say yes; independent verification still says unproven.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2025/11/13/is-elon-musk-delusional-or-lying-about-tesla-full-self-driving/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c60",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-5-000-week-by/",
   "title": "Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2017-07-03",
   "first_deadline": "2018-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2018-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2018-07-01",
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Dec 2017",
    "late Q1 2018 (Nov 1 2017 call)",
    "end of Q2 2018 (Feb 2018 call)",
    "Jun 2018"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 60,
     "date_made": "2017-07-03",
     "deadline": "2018-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-5-000-week-by/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 102,
     "date_made": "2018-02-07",
     "deadline": "2018-06-30",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly production rate of 2,500 vehicles by the end of March and 5,000 by the end of Q2.",
     "source": "https://web.archive.org/web/20230804004958/https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144365-tesla-tsla-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-5-000-week-by/#model-3-5000-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla missed its December 2017 target of ~20,000 Model 3s per month (5,000/week); it built only about 793 in the final week of 2017. The 5,000-per-week rate was first reached in the last week of June 2018 (5,031 units), roughly six months after the original deadline.",
    "url": "https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1117521_tesla-model-3-production-reaches-5000-cars-in-last-week-of-june"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c62",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#hw3-sufficient-for-fsd",
   "title": "HW3 sufficient for FSD",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 62,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do is improve the software.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#hw3-sufficient-for-fsd"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No longer merely disputed — definitively false. Musk admitted in January 2025 that HW3 computers would need upgrading for Full Self-Driving, and in April 2026 confirmed HW3 'simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD.' Fetched Oct 5 2026: HW3 cars run FSD v14.2 Lite (supervised); Tesla has said HW3 will not get Unsupervised FSD or join Robotaxi. Missed.",
    "url": "https://tslna.com/en/tesla-hw3-vs-hw4-fsd/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c65",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/",
   "title": "LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)",
   "company": "Boring Company",
   "topic": "Tunnels & Transport",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2013-08-12",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 65,
     "date_made": "2013-08-12",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.",
     "source": "http://web.archive.org/web/20140123014155/http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/hyperloop_alpha3.pdf",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Hyperloop Alpha (Aug 12 2013) specified a 35-minute one-way LA-to-SF trip 'from county line to county line.' Musk/The Boring Company never built an operational Hyperloop; the test tube was dismantled in 2022 and the company pivoted to the low-speed Las Vegas Loop. The 35-minute LA-SF journey was never delivered. Re-graded missed (2026-07-05 audit): 'cancelled' requires the goal to have been publicly abandoned, and it never was — Musk said in Apr 2022 that Boring Co 'will attempt to build a working Hyperloop,' TBC began full-scale hyperloop testing in Nov 2022 and still maintains a live Hyperloop roadmap page, and in April 2026 Musk re-asserted the exact LA-SF route ('<5% of CA HSR's cost'). The promise is alive and unmet — the overdue clock is legitimately ticking.",
    "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/04/51725154/elon-musk-takes-swipe-at-gavin-newsom-says-boring-could-build-la-sf-tunnel-at-less-than-5-cost"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c67",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/",
   "title": "Falcon Heavy launches next month (January 2018)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2011-04-05",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2018-02-06",
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2013",
    "2016",
    "Sep 2017",
    "Jan 2018"
   ],
   "statements": 4,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 67,
     "date_made": "2011-04-05",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch sometime in 2013.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtoADdSry6g",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-heavy-launch-2013"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 377,
     "date_made": "2016-06-01",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "So we want to start re flying them towards the end of summer and then hopefully by the end of this year we'll be launching Falcon Heavy, which will be the most powerful rocket in the world by more than a factor of two.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4&t=859s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-heavy-by-end-of-2016"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 443,
     "date_made": "2017-03-31",
     "deadline": "2017-09-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "our expectation is probably a late summer launch",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRMnRR7PRvU&t=1069s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-heavy-late-summer-2017"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 322,
     "date_made": "2017-12-01",
     "deadline": "2018-01-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Falcon Heavy to launch next month from Apollo 11 pad at the Cape. Will have double thrust of next largest rocket. Guaranteed to be exciting, one way or another.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/936781265675599873",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX unveiled Falcon Heavy at an April 2011 press conference targeting a 2013 first flight. Repeated delays (Falcon 9 anomalies, integration challenges) pushed the maiden launch to February 6, 2018, when it successfully flew carrying a Tesla Roadster - roughly five years past the original target.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy_test_flight"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c68",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-owner-income",
   "title": "Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 68,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-owner-income"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk's April 2019 Autonomy Day claim that owners could earn ~$30,000/year from a personal robotaxi never came true. No customer-owned robotaxi earning network launched by the end of 2020. Fetched Oct 25 2026: Wikipedia Tesla Robotaxi still describes a company-owned fleet (Model Y plus Cybercab in Austin from Sep 3); the owner-car sharing network remains a stated future vision. Individual owners still cannot list their cars for autonomous ride-hailing income. Status stays missed.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Robotaxi"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c72",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#restore-full-body-functionality",
   "title": "Restore full body functionality",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2022-11-30",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 72,
     "date_made": "2022-11-30",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YreDYmXTYi4",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#restore-full-body-functionality"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 22 2026: Wikipedia Neuralink still describes Telepathy-class computer, wheelchair, and robotic-arm control plus speech BCI (VOICE). Blindsight remains a development effort with FDA breakthrough status, not restored walking or full body function below a spinal injury. Deadline 2030. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c73",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#superhuman-abilities-via-neuralink",
   "title": "Superhuman abilities via Neuralink",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-04-03",
   "first_deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 73,
     "date_made": "2025-04-03",
     "deadline": "2035-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolutely provide superhuman abilities via Neuralink in the future.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJysv_Qzkw&t=2443s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#superhuman-abilities-via-neuralink"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 23 2026: Neuralink remains a medical-restoration BCI (Telepathy / VOICE); Blindsight is still a development effort, not shipped superintelligence or extra-wavelength vision. China approved a rival commercial implant (NEO); Neuralink is still investigational in the US. Deadline 2035. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c74",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-beta-wide-release-by-end-2020",
   "title": "FSD Beta wide release by end of 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2020-10-21",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-11-24",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "Nov 2022"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 315,
     "date_made": "2020-10-21",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And so we put it out there last night, and then we'll see how it goes, and then probably release it to more people this weekend or early next week, and then just gradually step it up until – We have, hopefully, a wide release by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-3Q20-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-beta-wide-release-by-end-2020"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 74,
     "date_made": "2022-11-01",
     "deadline": "2022-11-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go to wide beta for all full self-driving customers in North America this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2QSBdFfnRI",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-wide-release-nov-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On November 24, 2022 Musk announced that Tesla FSD Beta was available to anyone in North America who requested it from the car screen (if they had bought the option), removing the prior safety-score gate. This wide North American release occurred within November 2022, meeting the deadline. Note: this was the wide release of FSD *Beta* — a supervised Level-2 driver-assist still requiring hands on the wheel and eyes on the road, not the unsupervised 'Full Self-Driving' capability, which remains unfulfilled.",
    "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1595682322707267584"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c75",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-bulletproof",
   "title": "Cybertruck bulletproof",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2019-11-21",
   "first_deadline": "2023-11-30",
   "current_deadline": "2023-11-30",
   "resolved_date": "2023-11-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 75,
     "date_made": "2019-11-21",
     "deadline": "2023-11-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=464puoD09dM",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-bulletproof"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk claimed the Cybertruck body is bulletproof to a 9mm handgun (Nov 2019). The production truck's stainless steel exoskeleton was shown to stop 9mm handgun, .45 ACP and shotgun rounds; it is bullet-resistant to handguns though not to rifle calibers.",
    "url": "https://insideevs.com/news/438523/bullet-proof-tesla-truck-gun-shots/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c76",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-shatterproof-glass",
   "title": "Cybertruck shatterproof glass",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-11-21",
   "first_deadline": "2019-11-21",
   "current_deadline": "2019-11-21",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 76,
     "date_made": "2019-11-21",
     "deadline": "2019-11-21",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't break.",
     "source": "https://www.rev.com/transcripts/tesla-cybertruck-event-transcript-elon-musk-unveils-cybertruck",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#cybertruck-shatterproof-glass"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "During the Nov 21 2019 Cybertruck unveil, the 'armor glass' demo failed when Franz von Holzhausen's steel ball shattered both the driver and rear windows on stage; Musk later said a prior sledgehammer hit had cracked the glass base. Fetched Oct 5 2026: production Cybertruck glass is marketed as shatter-resistant (Class 4 hail / baseball at 70 mph), not the unbreakable armor-glass demo, and is not ballistic-rated — aftermarket Armored CyberGlass exists because stock glass is not. Still missed; the goal was not later delivered.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybertruck"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c78",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#1-million-people-on-mars",
   "title": "1 million people on Mars",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2016-09-27",
   "first_deadline": "2060-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2060-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 78,
     "date_made": "2016-09-27",
     "deadline": "2060-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could only go every two years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7Uyfqi_TE8",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#1-million-people-on-mars"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: no humans have landed on Mars. Wikipedia SpaceX Mars colonization program still records the Feb 2026 deprioritization toward a lunar city; Starship Flight 14 (Sep 28) was uncrewed orbital/Starlink, not a Mars mission. The one-million-person self-sustaining-city claim remains a multi-decade target (deadline 2060). Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c79",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#self-sustaining-mars-city-asap",
   "title": "Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2020-12-01",
   "first_deadline": "2050-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2050-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 79,
     "date_made": "2020-12-01",
     "deadline": "2050-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGhFmPjAuFg",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#self-sustaining-mars-city-asap"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 18 2026: Wikipedia's SpaceX Mars colonization page still describes a proposed program, not a city. In Feb 2026 Musk delayed Mars ambitions about five to seven years to focus on a lunar base; no Starship has launched to Mars, and no self-sustaining settlement exists. Deadline 2050. Goal has not been abandoned. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c80",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#cars-deliver-themselves-from-factory",
   "title": "Cars deliver themselves from factory",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2025-06-11",
   "first_deadline": "2025-06-28",
   "current_deadline": "2025-06-28",
   "resolved_date": "2025-06-27",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 80,
     "date_made": "2025-06-11",
     "deadline": "2025-06-28",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932591896939147494",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#cars-deliver-themselves-from-factory"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On June 28, 2025, a Tesla Model Y autonomously drove itself from Gigafactory Texas to a customer's home in downtown Austin with no occupant and, per Musk, no remote assistance, completing the world's first autonomous factory-to-customer car delivery. Musk said it was completed a day ahead of schedule, matching his June 28 target.",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2025/06/28/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-austin-first-driverless-delivery-from-factory-to-customer/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c81",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-performing-factory-tasks-2024",
   "title": "Optimus performing factory tasks 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2024-07-01",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-01",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 81,
     "date_made": "2024-07-01",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/07/24/tesla-tsla-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-performing-factory-tasks-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On the Q2 2024 earnings call (July 23 2024) Musk stated 'Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory,' and Optimus units were indeed deployed at Tesla factories in 2024 doing narrow tasks (e.g., battery-cell sorting). However, this was teleoperated/supervised data-collection work, and on the Q4 2025 call (Jan 2026) Musk admitted the units were still primarily for learning, not productive work. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): Optimus units genuinely worked in Tesla factories in 2024 (4680 cell sorting at Fremont), but Musk himself conceded on the Jan 28, 2026 earnings call that deployed units are 'primarily for learning, not productive tasks' — i.e. the 2024 factory work was supervised/teleoperated data collection, not the autonomous productive work claimed. Substance real, caveat material.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/01/28/musk-admits-no-optimus-robots-are-doing-useful-work-at-tesla-after-claiming-otherwise/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c82",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-10x-production-ramp-each-year",
   "title": "Optimus 10x production ramp each year",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-01-29",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 82,
     "date_made": "2025-01-29",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-10x-production-ramp-each-year"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: Electrek (Sep 25), citing The Information, still reports Optimus output at Fremont rose from a few dozen/week in Q2 small-batch testing to several hundred/week in August (~10x in months), targeting >1,000/week by year-end. Tesla has not published an official production rate. That is one intra-year jump from a tiny test baseline, not a scored year-over-year 10x production ramp (quote is an aspiration through 2030). Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/09/25/tesla-optimus-production-ramp-hands-ai-generalization-problems/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c83",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-worth-more-than-top-5/",
   "title": "Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-06-13",
   "first_deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 83,
     "date_made": "2024-06-13",
     "deadline": "2035-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=remZ1KMR_Z4",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-worth-more-than-top-5/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: the 2024 claim was a Tesla valuation 10× the then-most-valuable company (Apple/Microsoft ~$3T class), i.e. tens of trillions. CompaniesMarketCap: Tesla $1.453T as of Oct 19 (world's 11th); Motley Fool live table Oct 20 has Nvidia ~$5.2T as the leader. Tesla is not 10× the current leader. Deadline 2035. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c84",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#semi-500-mile-range",
   "title": "Semi 500 mile range",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2017-11-16",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-12-01",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 84,
     "date_made": "2017-11-16",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scenario.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#semi-500-mile-range"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised the Semi would do 500 miles at 81,000 lb (2017). In Nov 2022 Tesla reported a Semi completed a 500-mile run at 81,000 lb, just before first deliveries on Dec 1 2022. Real-world PepsiCo runs vary with load (~425 mi on lighter freight).",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c85",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-fully-reusable",
   "title": "Starship fully reusable",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2019-09-28",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 6,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2023",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2027",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2027"
   ],
   "statements": 4,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 85,
     "date_made": "2019-09-28",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy Grail of space.",
     "source": "https://elonmuskinterviews.wordpress.com/2021/03/27/starship-presentation-2019-english/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-fully-reusable"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 464,
     "date_made": "2024-03-25",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akXMYvKjUxM&t=1601s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-full-reusability-by-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 405,
     "date_made": "2025-09-07",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "And I think it's, I think, I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over 100 tons to a useful orbit.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeZqZBRA-6Q&t=1267s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-full-reusability-in-2026"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 266,
     "date_made": "2026-09-15",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027. It's really the critical breakthrough that's necessary to extend life beyond Earth.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwBOQeFPAwg",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-full-reusability-rapid-reflight-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: Wikipedia Starship flight 15 still lists a potential first ship tower-catch (NET Nov 8); Flight 14 (Sep 28) reached orbit but both stages splashed down — no tower catch of Ship or Super Heavy, so full reusability with rapid reflight is not achieved. Deadline 2027-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c86",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#ai5-chip-production-2026-2027",
   "title": "AI5 chip production 2026-2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-11-04",
   "first_deadline": "2027-04-30",
   "current_deadline": "2027-04-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2027",
    "Jun 2027",
    "Apr 2027"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 86,
     "date_made": "2025-11-04",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible in 2027.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1985785525429850463",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#ai5-chip-production-2026-2027"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 233,
     "date_made": "2026-02-05",
     "deadline": "2027-06-30",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'll probably happen around the second quarter-ish of next year, hopefully. And then AI6 would hopefully follow less than a year later.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#tesla-ai5-chip-production-q2-2027"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 512,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2027-04-30",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "There is another milestone that I think important we want to get to, which is to integrate the Tesla AI 5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#ai5-in-optimus-april-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of April 2027.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c89",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#first-crewed-mars-mission-12-people",
   "title": "First crewed Mars mission ~12 people",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2016-10-23",
   "first_deadline": "2029-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2029-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 89,
     "date_made": "2016-10-23",
     "deadline": "2029-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.",
     "source": "https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/comment/d94txm0/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#first-crewed-mars-mission-12-people"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 18 2026: Wikipedia still records Musk's 2016 ~12-person first-crewed-Mars architecture and the Feb 2026 delay of Mars ambitions ~5–7 years toward the Moon. No crewed Mars mission has flown; Starship remains uncrewed through Flight 14 (first orbit Sep 28). Deadline 2029. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_program"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c90",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-10x-better-with-new-model",
   "title": "New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-08-06",
   "first_deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 90,
     "date_made": "2025-08-06",
     "deadline": "2025-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953003713666400755",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-10x-better-with-new-model"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet promised a new FSD model with ~10X parameters, likely public by end of September 2025. Tesla shipped FSD v14.1 on Oct 7, 2025 on the ~1-billion-parameter 'small' model. Musk later confirmed (April 9, 2026) that 'V15 will be the large model.' Fetched Sep 26 2026: Wikipedia and Not a Tesla App say Cybercab/robotaxi vehicles are running early FSD v15 builds (10-billion-parameter architecture) but v15 is not yet available for consumer cars; Elluswamy pointed to an October fleet merge and a later customer OTA. A closed/early robotaxi build is not the promised public release (L12/L13). Still missed.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4705/teslas-upcoming-full-self-driving-features"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c91",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/",
   "title": "Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2018-10-31",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-10-13",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019",
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 285,
     "date_made": "2018-10-31",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "By next year, a Tesla should be able to drive around a parking lot, find an empty spot, read signs to confirm it’s valid & park.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1057690425710891009",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/#tesla-finds-parking-spot-reads-signs-2019"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 91,
     "date_made": "2025-10-10",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1976531868800725101",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Partially delivered. FSD v14.1 (October 2025) shipped 'Arrival Options'/'Parking at Destination' — robotaxi-style drop-offs where the car parks itself at the destination — but the full Banish flow (exit the car, it drives off unoccupied to find parking, returns via one-tap Summon) had not shipped by the 2025 deadline. Fetched Sep 5 2026: 2026.26 / FSD 14.3 release notes improve parking-spot selection and map pins; no unoccupied park-and-return Banish. Status stays partial.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/software-updates/version/2026.26.6.5/release-notes"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c92",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-0-60-in-under-1",
   "title": "Roadster 0-60 in under 1 second",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-02-28",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-10-15",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 92,
     "date_made": "2024-02-28",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1762718427775410295",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-0-60-in-under-1"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "At the Oct 15 2026 McGregor reveal Tesla listed sub-one-second 0-60 mph for the rear-thruster \"Thrust\" trim and showed a 0.81-second run on its own clock (not independently timed). That meets the claim as a published spec plus public demo, the same standard used for \"Roadster can fly\" (#95). Production cars arrive in 2028; independent timing will come then.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/tesla-reveals-spacex-powered-roadster-that-flies-and-falls-with-style/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c93",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-620-mile-range",
   "title": "Roadster 620 mile range",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2017-11-16",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 93,
     "date_made": "2017-11-16",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-620-mile-range"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The 2017 unveil claimed ~620 miles from a 200 kWh pack. At the Oct 15 2026 McGregor reveal Tesla listed more than 300 miles of range for every trim (Wikipedia: 310–320 mi claimed). That is an official drop of the 620-mile spec, not a pending test of it. Cancelled — the goal was abandoned — rather than waiting out the 2027 deadline.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster_(second_generation)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c94",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-spacex-package-with-thrusters",
   "title": "Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2018-06-09",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-10-15",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 94,
     "date_made": "2018-06-09",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly around car. These rocket engines dramatically improve acceleration, top speed, braking & cornering. Maybe they will even allow a Tesla to fly …",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1005577738332172289",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-spacex-package-with-thrusters"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On Oct 15 2026 Tesla revealed the new Roadster at SpaceX's McGregor site with SpaceX cold-gas thrusters. Its top \"Rocket\" trim has 10 cold-gas thrusters positioned around the car, close to the ~10 Musk promised in 2018, and the demo used them to accelerate, drive inverted and fly. The rear-thruster \"Thrust\" trim gives sub-one-second 0-60. Tesla is taking reservations (Rocket is invite-only). Production is 2028, but this card is the package's existence and contents, which Tesla showed and listed on Oct 15 2026, before the 2027 deadline.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/tesla-reveals-spacex-powered-roadster-that-flies-and-falls-with-style/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c95",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-can-fly",
   "title": "Tesla Roadster flew at the October 2026 McGregor demo",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-06-15",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-10-15",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 95,
     "date_made": "2024-06-15",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "The new Tesla Roadster can fly.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1801980372823187707",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-can-fly"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On Oct 15 2026 Tesla publicly flew the next-gen Roadster on cold-gas thrusters at SpaceX's McGregor test site: inverted-ramp, mid-air kickflip, and a hop over a line of Teslas. Musk posted 'Turns out the future does have flying cars.' Tesla listed an invite-only Rocket trim as 'air ready.' The 2024 claim was that the new Roadster can fly; the public demo met that by the 2027 deadline.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/tesla-reveals-spacex-powered-roadster-that-flies-and-falls-with-style/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c98",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-prototype",
   "title": "Optimus prototype by 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2021-08-19",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-09-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 98,
     "date_made": "2021-08-19",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-prototype"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled a functional Optimus prototype at AI Day on Sep 30 2022. The 'Bumble-C' prototype walked unaided across the stage and waved to the crowd — Musk noted it was operating untethered for the first time. Though crude, it was a real working prototype delivered within the 2022 window promised at AI Day 2021.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c99",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-production-ready",
   "title": "Optimus production ready by 2023",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-04-07",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 99,
     "date_made": "2022-04-07",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2QSBdFfnRI",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-production-ready"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said at Cyber Rodeo (Apr 7 2022) that Tesla had 'a shot' at producing Optimus version one in 2023. That did not happen — 2023 saw only R&D demonstrations. Limited production slipped to 2025 and remained behind schedule; high-volume production lines were still being installed as of 2026. The 2023 production target was missed.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c103",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/",
   "title": "Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-10-10",
   "first_deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-17",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2026",
    "Jun 2026"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 186,
     "date_made": "2024-10-10",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames' — 'before 2027, let me put it that way', at a price below $30,000.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 103,
     "date_made": "2025-10-23",
     "deadline": "2026-06-30",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#cybercab-mass-production"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Production started inside the window: the first production Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas line on February 17, 2026, with volume ramp beginning around April 2026 under an NHTSA exemption capped at 2,500 vehicles. The sub-$30,000 price remains unproven, and Musk warned on the Q1 2026 call that the initial ramp would 'crawl'.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/23/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-no-nhtsa-2500-vehicle-cap/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c106",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#orbital-satellites-ai-compute",
   "title": "Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-12-07",
   "first_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2029-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2028",
    "Feb 2029",
    "2029"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 106,
     "date_made": "2025-12-07",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1997706687155720229",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#orbital-satellites-ai-compute"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 234,
     "date_made": "2026-02-05",
     "deadline": "2029-02-28",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Mark my words: in 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#space-most-compelling-place-for-ai-2028"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 249,
     "date_made": "2026-08-14",
     "deadline": "2029-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Orbital compute will be the only way to scale AI probably sometime in 2029 due to power availability& permitting problems on land",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2088306926442430578",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#orbital-compute-only-way-2029"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 19 2026: Musk's Aug 14 claim remains a 2029 forecast, not a current fact. Orbital Radar: no Starmind satellites in orbit. SpaceX's Q3 preview still centers terrestrial AI hosting (Street ~$6.4B AI revenue). Terrestrial AI campuses continue to scale. Deadline 2029-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://orbitalradar.com/starmind-tracker"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c107",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/",
   "title": "Grok 5 released before end of 2025",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-08-07",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "Mar 2026",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 107,
     "date_made": "2025-08-07",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953515379688714697",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 120,
     "date_made": "2026-01-06",
     "deadline": "2026-03-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "5 is Q1.",
     "source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-5-release-q1-2026"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 407,
     "date_made": "2026-08-04",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "And then with GROK 5, which should be out before the end of this year, we will be incorporating the entire corpus of SpaceX data.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz7B8fgY06c&t=488s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-5-before-end-of-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: docs.x.ai still lists Grok 4.7 as the most capable text model ('For everything else, including code, use Grok 4.7'). x.ai/news newest model post is Introducing Grok 4.7 (Sep 21); Grok Voice 3.0 (Oct 14) is speech, not Grok 5. No grok-5 identifier. Deadline end-2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://docs.x.ai/docs/models"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c108",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-watchable-movie",
   "title": "Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-10-06",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 108,
     "date_made": "2025-10-06",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1975262861346951212",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-watchable-movie"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 190,
     "date_made": "2026-06-17",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Full movies by the end of this year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2067207305503101025",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-full-movies-end-2026"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 235,
     "date_made": "2026-07-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2079758604656316619",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-imagine-odyssey-movie-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 16 2026: x.ai/news has no Grok Imagine Odyssey-film announcement. Latest model launch is Grok 4.7 (Sep 21); Imagine posts remain Imagine Image 2.0 (Aug 7) and Imagine Video 1.5 (Jul 31); Oct 14 is Grok Voice 3.0. On Sep 29 @imagine posted a 4-minute Odyssey *pilot* (Wonder Studios, 15 days) and said Episode 1 is next — a teaser, not a full-length historically accurate Odyssey movie. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c109",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#ai-generated-game",
   "title": "Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-10-06",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 109,
     "date_made": "2025-10-06",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1975064769729327545",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#ai-generated-game"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: x.ai/news has no game-studio title (latest: Grok Voice 3.0 Oct 14, Partner Network Oct 22, Grok 4.7 Sep 21). Grok Build can make user games; that is not an xAI studio release of a great AI-generated game. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c110",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/",
   "title": "X Money launches soon",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-12-21",
   "first_deadline": "2024-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2024-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-06-25",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Jun 2024",
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 458,
     "date_made": "2023-12-21",
     "deadline": "2024-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I would be surprised if we aren't if it takes us longer than the middle of next year to roll out payments",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAvg_1pAATE&t=1411s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/#x-payments-by-middle-of-2024"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 110,
     "date_made": "2025-11-13",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1989003739831865805",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "X Money launched publicly on June 25, 2026, when X began releasing it to a subset of U.S. Premium+ subscribers — its first broad consumer launch after months of internal testing. Peer-to-peer payments went live (a user sent $25 to Musk, who confirmed it), alongside a metal Visa debit card, bill/wire/check payments, and interest on balances via a Cross River Bank cash-sweep with up to $10M FDIC coverage. That is about seven months after the 'comes out soon' promise (Nov 2025) and well past the 2025 deadline; access is still tiered (Premium+ first) ahead of a wider rollout.",
    "url": "https://www.pymnts.com/commerce/social-commerce/2026/x-opens-x-money-to-premium-subscribers-ahead-of-broader-launch/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c111",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/#x-everything-app",
   "title": "X becomes the everything app",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-11-13",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 111,
     "date_made": "2025-11-13",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1989003739831865805",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/#x-everything-app"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Still pending (deadline end of 2026). Encrypted chats/calls shipped; X Money publicly launched to U.S. users in June 2026. Fetched Oct 23 2026: X Money is P2P payments plus a debit card — no in-app travel booking, no native brokerage. Payments + social is progress, not a WeChat-style everything app. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.travelerstoday.com/articles/60321/20260630/x-money-goes-live-what-elon-musks-new-payments-app-does-does-not-do-travelers.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c113",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#blindsight-restore-sight",
   "title": "Blindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-09-04",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 113,
     "date_made": "2025-09-04",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963646030936932737",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#blindsight-restore-sight"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 16 2026: no confirmation of a Blindsight implant in a blind human. Neurofounders Oct 12: Neuralink's Blindsight program would stimulate visual cortex, but 'the company has not yet tested visual stimulation in humans.' MedTech Monitor Oct 7: no Blindsight implant in a person has been publicly reported. A Sep 27 preclinical feline visual-prosthesis implant is not the human 2026 promise. Grade stays pending until Dec 31 2026.",
    "url": "https://www.neurofounders.co/deep-dives/how-neurotech-is-restoring-vision"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c114",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-fast-reaction-games",
   "title": "Neuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-10-31",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 114,
     "date_made": "2025-10-31",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "It won't be long before a Neuralink recipient can beat most and eventually all humans at fast reaction video games.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984296007581262103",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-fast-reaction-games"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: patients still play games with thought (WoW, chess, FPS via QuadStick+BCI) and a Oct 20 vacuum-control demo, but there is no receipt that a recipient has beaten most or all able-bodied humans at fast-reaction video games. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.neurapod.com/blog/neuralink-patient-zach-mcmanus-robot-vacuum"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c115",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/",
   "title": "Thousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-08-22",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 115,
     "date_made": "2024-08-22",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If all goes well, there will be hundreds of people with Neuralinks within a few years, maybe tens of thousands within 5 years, millions within 10 years.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1826409318578565326",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: public patient counts remain in the low dozens, not thousands-per-year. Neura Pod's by-the-numbers page lists 27+ publicly known patients as of October 2026 (Neuralink last confirmed 21 enrolled Jan 28 2026). That is still early human trials, not thousands of implants a year. Deadline 2030-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.neurapod.com/neuralink-by-the-numbers"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c117",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/",
   "title": "US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-12-24",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-24",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-24",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 117,
     "date_made": "2025-12-24",
     "deadline": "2030-12-24",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2003893474878541841",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: BEA third estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP is still +2.2% annualized (Q1 2026 +2.5%). Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q3 2026 at +3.6% as of Oct 15. That is not double-digit US growth. The 12–18 month window from the Dec 24 2025 statement runs through Jun 24 2027 (L10 generous end); the card deadline 2030-12-24 is the ~5-year triple-digit clause. Q3 advance estimate is due Oct 29. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c118",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-high-volume-production-2026",
   "title": "Neuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-12-31",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 118,
     "date_made": "2025-12-31",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026. Device threads will go through the dura, without the need to remove it. This is a big deal.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2006513491105165411",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-high-volume-production-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 16 2026: MedTech Monitor Oct 7 puts Neuralink's human count in the high twenties (21 official in January; ~26th recipient in May for first transdural insertion). That is still tens of investigational implants, not high-volume device production, and surgery is not an almost entirely automated high-volume process. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://medtechmonitor.substack.com/p/what-is-neuralink-actually-doing"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c119",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/",
   "title": "AGI will be achieved in 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2022-05-30",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2029",
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 282,
     "date_made": "2022-05-30",
     "deadline": "2029-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "2029 feels like a pivotal year. I’d be surprised if we don’t have AGI by then. Hopefully, people on Mars too.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1531328534169493506",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#agi-by-2029"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 140,
     "date_made": "2024-03-13",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1767738797276451090",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-smarter-than-any-human-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 119,
     "date_made": "2026-01-06",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think we'll hit AGI next year in 2026.",
     "source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 21 2026: x.ai/news has no AGI or Grok 5 announcement. Latest public flagship is Grok 4.7 (Sep 21). Nobody has a consensus AGI system in production. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c121",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-exceeds-all-humans-2030",
   "title": "AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-01-06",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2031-07-23",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2030",
    "Jul 2031"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 121,
     "date_made": "2026-01-06",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.",
     "source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-exceeds-all-humans-2030"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 240,
     "date_made": "2026-07-23",
     "deadline": "2031-07-23",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about, in around five years.",
     "source": "https://elonmuskarchive.org/video/economist-elon-musk-2026-07-23",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-exceed-sum-human-intelligence"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: SpaceXSI's newsroom lists Grok 4.7 (Sep 21) and Grok Voice 3.0 (Oct 14) with no claim that AI exceeds the sum of all human intelligence. Deadline ~2031. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c122",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-better-surgeon-three-years",
   "title": "Optimus a better surgeon than the best humans in 3 years (by 2029)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-01-06",
   "first_deadline": "2029-01-06",
   "current_deadline": "2029-01-06",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 122,
     "date_made": "2026-01-06",
     "deadline": "2029-01-06",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Three years.",
     "source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-better-surgeon-three-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 22 2026: Wikipedia Optimus still has Generation 3 unrevealed. Tesla's Q3 2026 letter reports early Fremont production of production-quality bots, not surgical capability. No Tesla/exec claim that Optimus performs surgery, let alone better than the best human surgeons. Deadline Jan 6 2029. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c123",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-refilling-within-two-years-2022",
   "title": "Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2022-02-10",
   "first_deadline": "2024-02-10",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Feb 2024",
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 481,
     "date_made": "2022-02-10",
     "deadline": "2024-02-10",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for doing the refilling",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpTLExoMAtQ&t=4846s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-refilling-within-two-years-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 442,
     "date_made": "2024-04-04",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to ship propellant transfer",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI&t=13s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-to-ship-propellant-transfer-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 123,
     "date_made": "2026-01-06",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'd say towards the end of the year.",
     "source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-refueling-end-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: the Starship-to-Starship propellant-transfer demo has not flown. Wikipedia still lists it unscheduled (originally March 2025, then March 2026). Ars Technica's Oct 20 SpaceX earnings report quotes Gwynne Shotwell saying SpaceX will seek to complete the demo early in 2027 — company-exec, not Elon, so the end-2026 deadline is not moved. Flight 15 (NET Nov 8) is a catch attempt; Wikipedia notes docking/hatch aspects may begin testing, not a tanker-pair cryogenic transfer. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/10/spacex-will-attempt-to-reach-weekly-starship-launches-by-early-2027/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c124",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-beta-europe-summer-2022",
   "title": "FSD Beta in Europe this summer (2022)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2022-03-29",
   "first_deadline": "2022-09-22",
   "current_deadline": "2022-09-22",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-10",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Sep 2022",
    "Feb 2026"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 329,
     "date_made": "2022-03-29",
     "deadline": "2022-09-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "FSD Beta should be available in Europe for LHD this summer, RHD a few months later. These dates depend on regulatory approval.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1508890304287592450",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-beta-europe-summer-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 124,
     "date_made": "2026-01-22",
     "deadline": "2026-02-28",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a similar timing, timing for China.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-europe-china-approval-february-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said at Davos (Jan 22, 2026) European FSD approval was coming 'hopefully next month.' The Dutch authority RDW granted European type approval for FSD Supervised on April 10, 2026 — about six weeks after the Feb 2026 target. Caveats: it covers FSD 'Supervised' (classified Level 2 driver assistance, not self-driving), applies in the Netherlands first with EU-wide recognition still pending, and China approval has not happened.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/10/tesla-fsd-supervised-approved-netherlands-rdw-europe/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c125",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-x-production-ends-2026/",
   "title": "Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2026-01-28",
   "first_deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-09",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 125,
     "date_made": "2026-01-28",
     "deadline": "2026-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-x-production-ends-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "After Musk's January 28, 2026 announcement, Tesla built the last Model S and Model X units at its Fremont plant in early May 2026 and confirmed on X that production of both premium models had ended. The wind-down was completed within Q2 2026, ahead of the June 30 deadline, as the lines are repurposed for Optimus.",
    "url": "https://www.electrive.com/2026/05/11/final-tesla-model-s-rolls-off-the-production-line/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c127",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-3-unveil-few-months",
   "title": "Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2026-01-28",
   "first_deadline": "2026-07-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-07-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 127,
     "date_made": "2026-01-28",
     "deadline": "2026-07-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-3-unveil-few-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On the Jan 28 2026 Q4 call Musk said Tesla would 'probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months' (interpreted generously as by end of July 2026). Tesla's Oct 21 Q3 letter confirmed early Optimus production on Fremont high-volume lines of production-quality bots, but that is a start-of-production receipt (#135), not a public unveil of the Gen 3 body. Re-checked Oct 25 2026: no Tesla showing of V3 as a reveal. Missed; watch for any Tesla showing of the Gen 3 body (→ delivered-late).",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4866/tesla-officially-begins-optimus-robot-production"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c131",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/",
   "title": "Starship's next flight (V3 debut)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-05-29",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-22",
   "times_moved": 4,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "~Mar 9 2026 (Jan 26: 'Starship launch in 6 weeks')",
    "Mar 2026",
    "May 2026",
    "Apr 2026"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 445,
     "date_made": "2025-05-29",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "version 3 of Starship which we're aiming to launch for the first time at the end of this year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9Rv-Q20zRE&t=0s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-v3-first-launch-end-of-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 210,
     "date_made": "2026-02-21",
     "deadline": "2026-03-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Starship flies again next month",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2025352946733490471",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 131,
     "date_made": "2026-03-07",
     "deadline": "2026-04-10",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2030202126282973682",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-v3-first-flight-april-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Promised in Feb 2026 that Starship would fly 'next month' (March), re-affirmed in April that the V3 booster and ship would be ready 'in a few weeks.' Flight 12 — the V3 debut — slipped and launched May 22, 2026, ~2 months past the March target.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c132",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/",
   "title": "Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-03-21",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 132,
     "date_made": "2026-03-21",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035506574182199757",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026 from the Tesla Q3 2026 earnings-call transcript: Musk said Terafab aspires to useful chips at volume around Q3 2028 (already carded as #511 vs #267) and that AI5 'comes in, hopefully in volume, around April of next year.' #132's deadline is keyed to AI5 volume in 2027, which that line restates rather than moves. Wikipedia/construction 2028 is the building, not a new Elon date for this card. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c133",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-dozen-states-end-2026",
   "title": "Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 133,
     "date_made": "2026-04-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://whatsuptesla.com/2026/04/22/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-call-elon-musks-vision-for-the-ai-robotics-future-april-22-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-dozen-states-end-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 22 2026: Tesla's Robotaxi safety report (Oct 21) lists unsupervised commercial service in two states — Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston) and Florida (Miami, Orlando, Tampa) — plus safety-driver service in California (San Francisco Bay Area). Coming soon: Nevada (Las Vegas), Arizona (Phoenix), Jacksonville (FL) and San Antonio (TX). That is 2 unsupervised states / 3 with any live service, not a dozen. Cybercab Dallas next month does not add a state. Deadline end-2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4860/tesla-names-next-robotaxi-cities-shares-miles-driven-safety-data"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c134",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-v15-end-of-2026",
   "title": "FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 134,
     "date_made": "2026-04-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI5.",
     "source": "https://whatsuptesla.com/2026/04/22/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-call-elon-musks-vision-for-the-ai-robotics-future-april-22-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-v15-end-of-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Quote promised Version 15 as a complete software-architecture overhaul that 'will run on AI5,' hopefully by end of 2026 / certainly early 2027. Fetched Oct 22 2026: customer cars are still on FSD (Supervised) v14.3.13 (update 2026.38.5.10, Oct 20). Robotaxi fleets have run early v15 builds since July on Hardware 4 — not a customer FSD v15 complete overhaul on AI5. AI5 volume remains 2027. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4679/tesla-ai-chief-talks-about-whats-coming-in-fsd-v15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c135",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-v3-production-august-2026",
   "title": "Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2026-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2026-08-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-10-21",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 135,
     "date_made": "2026-04-22",
     "deadline": "2026-08-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.",
     "source": "https://whatsuptesla.com/2026/04/22/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-call-elon-musks-vision-for-the-ai-robotics-future-april-22-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-v3-production-august-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla's Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Oct 21) says Optimus production began on Fremont high-volume lines and that the bots coming off the line are 'the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured,' with a process 'suitable for a commercial product.' Musk called it 'early production.' The July/August start-of-production target was missed; Tesla's first official SOP receipt is the Oct 21 letter covering Q3. Rate is still Early Ramp, far from volume. Delivered-late on the start-of-production claim.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/21/tesla-stars-optimus-robot-production-in-california-as-profit-falls-43/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c138",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/battery-swap-stations-2013/",
   "title": "Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2013-06-20",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 138,
     "date_made": "2013-06-20",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or free?",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqN9-_7iNP8",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/battery-swap-stations-2013/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk demoed battery swapping on June 20 2013 and pitched swap stations across Tesla's network. Only one pilot station was ever built (Harris Ranch, opened ~March 2015) and it was shut down by 2016 after minimal use — of ~200 invited owners, only about five tried it. Musk himself buried the idea at the June 9 2015 annual shareholder meeting: owners \"don't seem to be very interested\" in pack swap and, \"based on what we're seeing here, it's unlikely to be something that's worth expanding.\" Tesla abandoned swapping for Superchargers; the network never materialized.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_battery_station"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c139",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/#solar-roof-cheaper-than-normal-roof",
   "title": "Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-11-17",
   "first_deadline": null,
   "current_deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 139,
     "date_made": "2016-11-17",
     "deadline": null,
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-arnlSOCgs",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/#solar-roof-cheaper-than-normal-roof"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "At the Oct 28 2016 unveil Musk claimed a solar roof would cost less than a normal roof. In reality, as of 2025–2026 a Tesla Solar Roof costs roughly $50–$63 per square foot (over $100k for an average home) — far more than a conventional roof, and far more than a normal roof plus standard solar panels. The claim was not met.",
    "url": "https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-much-does-the-tesla-solar-roof-cost-compared-to-conventional-solar"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c141",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#dojo-operational-2022",
   "title": "Dojo supercomputer operational in 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2021-08-19",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-07-19",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 141,
     "date_made": "2021-08-19",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "We should have Dojo operational next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#dojo-operational-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "At AI Day 2021 Musk said Tesla's Dojo supercomputer should be 'fully operational' the next year. The 2022 deadline passed unmet. Dojo then arrived late and diminished: Tesla's own Q2 2023 shareholder letter (July 19, 2023) announced the start of production of Dojo training computers, and Musk said in Jan 2024 that 'Dojo is working' and 'doing training jobs' — though the production start was contested, exaflop targets were never met, and Nvidia remained Tesla's real training backbone. In August 2025 the program was shut down outright (team disbanded, chip efforts converged on AI5/AI6). Graded partial: it operated, late and below the promise, before being killed — 'cancelled' is reserved for goals renounced without ever being achieved.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000095017023033544/tsla-ex99_1.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c142",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-plurality-of-us-power-by-2033/",
   "title": "Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2013-02-27",
   "first_deadline": "2033-02-27",
   "current_deadline": "2033-02-27",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 142,
     "date_made": "2013-02-27",
     "deadline": "2033-02-27",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgKWPdJWuBQ",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-plurality-of-us-power-by-2033/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: EIA September STEO press release (Sep 9) puts U.S. electricity generation shares at natural gas 40% in 2025–2027, solar 7% (2025) / 8% (2026) / 9% (2027). Natural gas remains the plurality. Deadline Feb 27 2033. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press592.php"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c143",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/",
   "title": "Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2013-02-27",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2014-01-27",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 143,
     "date_made": "2013-02-27",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgKWPdJWuBQ",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla completed its first coast-to-coast Supercharger corridor in late January 2014, about a month after the end-of-2013 target. A father-daughter pair completed the first LA-NY trip on the network in January 2014, and Tesla ran an official cross-country rally days later.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/27/tesla-completes-first-coast-to-coast-supercharger-route/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c146",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/",
   "title": "SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2007-01-03",
   "first_deadline": "2011-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2011-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2020-05-30",
   "times_moved": 5,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2011",
    "Apr 2014",
    "2015",
    "2017",
    "2018",
    "Sep 2019"
   ],
   "statements": 7,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 478,
     "date_made": "2007-01-03",
     "deadline": "2011-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "starting in 2011, SpaceX's rocket will replace the space shuttle in servicing the space station with astronauts and cargo transportation",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0e8Ffh75qc&t=160s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/#spacex-replaces-shuttle-crew-and-cargo-2011"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 146,
     "date_made": "2011-04-22",
     "deadline": "2014-04-22",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiPJsI8pl8Q",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 373,
     "date_made": "2014-05-16",
     "deadline": "2015-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Then next year, if schedules hold, we'll be transporting astronauts to the space station for the first time.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxS9mlZ7n8s&t=1707s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/#spacex-astronauts-to-iss-in-2015"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 477,
     "date_made": "2015-09-02",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "in approximately two years, we'll be transporting NASA astronauts to the space station",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVCkmNbhkvM&t=210s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/#nasa-astronauts-to-iss-in-two-years-2015"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 378,
     "date_made": "2016-06-01",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And then, and then next year we'll be flying Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking up to seven astronauts to the space station.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4&t=1017s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/#crew-dragon-flying-in-2017"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 323,
     "date_made": "2017-08-03",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Looking forward to launching @NASA astronauts to the International Space Station next year!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/893176500005908482",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/#nasa-astronauts-to-iss-in-2018"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 426,
     "date_made": "2019-03-02",
     "deadline": "2019-09-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "unless something goes wrong, I would think that we'll be flying hopefully this year. Yeah, I mean, this summer, hopefully.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umc47uaoJ6U&t=1095s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/#crew-dragon-flies-astronauts-summer-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX's first crewed flight came nine years after the prediction, not three. Crew Dragon Demo-2 carried NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS on May 30, 2020 — six years past the promised ~2014 date, after Commercial Crew funding shortfalls, two Falcon 9 failure investigations, and Crew Dragon development setbacks.",
    "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-astronauts-launch-from-america-in-historic-test-flight-of-spacex-crew-dragon/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c148",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012/",
   "title": "Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2009-04-10",
   "first_deadline": "2011-04-30",
   "current_deadline": "2011-04-30",
   "resolved_date": "2012-06-22",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Apr 2011",
    "Jul 2012"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 371,
     "date_made": "2009-04-10",
     "deadline": "2011-04-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Well, the car will be available in two years, which is. That's when we'll be finished with all the crash testing and all the regulatory stuff and have built out the factory.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxB7uNgS6J4&t=1129s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012/#model-s-available-in-two-years-2009"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 148,
     "date_made": "2012-02-09",
     "deadline": "2012-07-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mURbzh9t0_0",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Delivered, and slightly early. Tesla handed the first customer Model S sedans to buyers — including earliest depositor Steve Jurvetson — at a Fremont factory event on June 22, 2012, beating the 'no later than July' commitment by more than a month. One of the few clean timeline wins of the early Tesla era.",
    "url": "https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1076737_first-2012-tesla-model-s-delivered-to-earliest-depositor-steve-jurvetson"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c149",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-x-volume-production-q2-2015/",
   "title": "Model X volume production in Q2 2015",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2014-06-03",
   "first_deadline": "2015-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2015-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2016-06-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 149,
     "date_made": "2014-06-03",
     "deadline": "2015-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in the second quarter next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDwEFvOh9co",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-x-volume-production-q2-2015/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Q2 2015 passed with zero Model X production. First deliveries were a six-car ceremony at the end of September 2015, and Tesla's own Q4 2015 numbers showed just 507 Model X built and 208 delivered in the entire quarter — volume production only arrived in 2016 after months of falcon-wing-door and seat-supplier problems. Reclassified delivered-late: volume production DID arrive — by Q2 2016 Tesla was delivering ~4,625 Model X per quarter (Tesla's own Q2 2016 report), roughly a year past the promised quarter. Late, not never.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2016/01/03/tesla-delivered-17400-vehicles-q4-50580-2015/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c150",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-land-and-refly-within-12-months-2014",
   "title": "80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2014-10-24",
   "first_deadline": "2015-10-24",
   "current_deadline": "2015-10-24",
   "resolved_date": "2017-03-30",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Oct 2015",
    "2016"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 150,
     "date_made": "2014-10-24",
     "deadline": "2015-10-24",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the first time, but there's a lot of launches that will occur over the next year — there's at least a dozen launches that will occur over the next 12 months — and I think it's quite likely, probably 80, 90 percent likely, that one of those flights will be able to land and refly.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DUbiCQpw_4",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-land-and-refly-within-12-months-2014"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 375,
     "date_made": "2015-12-21",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "So I think we'll end up re flying one of the subsequent boosters. ... I think probably before sometime next year we would aim to refly one of the [rockets].",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgNekVW0pps&t=433s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-reflies-landed-booster-in-2016"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk gave '80-90% odds' a Falcon 9 would land and refly within a year (by ~Oct 2015). Neither happened in that window, but SpaceX landed a Falcon 9 first stage Dec 22, 2015 and reflew a recovered booster March 30, 2017 — the predicted capability was achieved, roughly 17 months to 2.5 years late. Reusable boosters are now routine.",
    "url": "https://www.space.com/36291-spacex-used-rocket-launch-landing-success.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c151",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/snake-charger-for-realz-2014/",
   "title": "'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2014-12-31",
   "first_deadline": null,
   "current_deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 151,
     "date_made": "2014-12-31",
     "deadline": null,
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a solid metal snake. For realz.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/550297212769402881",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/snake-charger-for-realz-2014/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla showed a working prototype in an August 2015 video — and Musk personally demoed it again in an October 2016 tweet — but the snake charger never shipped, never got a price or date, and quietly vanished from Tesla's plans. More than a decade later it remains vaporware; in June 2026 Xiaomi shipped a home robotic-arm EV charger delivering essentially the product Musk teased in 2014. A single robotic prototype was demoed in August 2015 and never productized; Tesla quietly dropped the project. Abandoned, not overdue.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/06/12/xiaomi-robotic-arm-ev-charger-tesla-snake-charger/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c152",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-apple-market-cap-by-2025/",
   "title": "Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2015-02-11",
   "first_deadline": "2025-02-11",
   "current_deadline": "2025-02-11",
   "resolved_date": "2021-01-07",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 152,
     "date_made": "2015-02-11",
     "deadline": "2025-02-11",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6L-AMDt1cM",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-apple-market-cap-by-2025/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Delivered four years early — by the wrong route. Tesla's market cap blew past Apple's 2015 value of ~$700 billion in the first week of January 2021, passing Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company at ~$773 billion, and stayed near or above $1 trillion through the Feb 2025 deadline. The underlying model was wrong (2024 revenue was ~$98B, nowhere near the ~$345B that 50% compounding implied, with margins and P/E wildly different), but the headline market-cap call landed.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/tesla-passes-facebook-to-become-fifth-most-valuable-us-company.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c154",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/powerwall-ships-in-3-4-months-2015/",
   "title": "$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2015-04-30",
   "first_deadline": "2015-08-31",
   "current_deadline": "2015-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2016-03-19",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 154,
     "date_made": "2015-04-30",
     "deadline": "2015-08-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going to start shipping in approximately three or four months.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIgzzAMgnSU",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/powerwall-ships-in-3-4-months-2015/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Shipping slipped and the headline product died. Only ~500 pilot units trickled out of Fremont in 2015, with real customer installations starting in early 2016 — months past the 'three or four months' promise. Worse, the $3,500 10 kWh backup Powerwall Musk priced on stage was quietly discontinued by March 2016, less than a year after the reveal, leaving only the smaller 7 kWh daily-cycling version.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2016/03/19/tesla-discontinued-10-kwh-powerwall-backup-power/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c156",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/australia-battery-100-days-or-free/",
   "title": "Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2017-03-10",
   "first_deadline": "2017-12-01",
   "current_deadline": "2017-12-01",
   "resolved_date": "2017-12-01",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 156,
     "date_made": "2017-03-10",
     "deadline": "2017-12-01",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That serious enough for you?",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/840032197637685249",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/australia-battery-100-days-or-free/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered. The 100 MW / 129 MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia — then the world's largest lithium-ion battery — was built in roughly 60 days from the grid-connection agreement and officially switched on December 1, 2017, comfortably inside the 100-day bet window. One of Musk's cleanest wins.",
    "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-42190358"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c158",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#master-plan-deux-semi-unveil-2017",
   "title": "Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2016-07-20",
   "first_deadline": "2017-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2017-09-30",
   "resolved_date": "2017-11-16",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2017",
    "Sep 2017"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 158,
     "date_made": "2016-07-20",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.",
     "source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#master-plan-deux-semi-unveil-2017"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 452,
     "date_made": "2017-06-06",
     "deadline": "2017-09-30",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "the semi truck we're going to unveil at the end of September",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9cT4jvn71A&t=2s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#tesla-semi-unveil-end-of-september-2017"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Delivered on time: Musk unveiled the Tesla Semi (alongside the surprise next-gen Roadster) at the Hawthorne design studio on November 16, 2017 — within the 'next year' window promised in Master Plan, Part Deux. Production, promised for 2019, is tracked separately and slipped to 2022-2026.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/tesla-semi-truck-has-a-500-mile-range-ceo-elon-musk-reveals.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c159",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/master-plan-deux-tesla-bus-unveil-2017/",
   "title": "Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2016-07-20",
   "first_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-10",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 159,
     "date_made": "2016-07-20",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. ... With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager.",
     "source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/master-plan-deux-tesla-bus-unveil-2017/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The 'high passenger-density urban transport' vehicle — described as a smaller autonomous bus with summon buttons at bus stops — was never unveiled in 2017 or any year since. The closest thing Tesla ever showed is the 20-passenger Robovan concept at the 'We, Robot' event in October 2024, seven years after the promised unveiling, and that vehicle has no production date. Re-graded delivered-late (2026-07-05 audit): the promised milestone was an unveiling of a high-passenger-density urban transport vehicle, and on Oct 10, 2024 Tesla officially unveiled exactly that — the 20-passenger autonomous Robovan at the 'We, Robot' event, 6.8 years late. Press coverage explicitly tied the Robovan to the Master Plan Deux bus promise; the program remains alive (production teased ~2028).",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2024/10/10/tesla-unveils-robovan-a-20-seat-autonomous-passenger-cargo-van/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c161",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/machine-that-builds-machine-v1-2018/",
   "title": "'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2016-07-20",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 161,
     "date_made": "2016-07-20",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.",
     "source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/machine-that-builds-machine-v1-2018/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Instead of a hyper-automated 'alien dreadnought' v1.0 in 2018, Tesla spent that year ripping robots out of the Fremont line and finishing Model 3s in a tent. Musk publicly killed the plan on April 13, 2018: 'Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated.' Re-graded cancelled (2026-08-29 settled re-check): the 2018 factory-machine v1.0 was abandoned, not merely late — missed would keep an overdue clock on a goal he himself renounced.",
    "url": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c162",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/",
   "title": "Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2018-04-13",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-01-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 162,
     "date_made": "2018-04-13",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984705630106673152",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Delivered — at the time one of his most doubted calls. Tesla posted GAAP net income of $312M with $881M free cash flow in Q3 2018 and $139M net income in Q4 2018, its first back-to-back profitable quarters ever. (The 'no need to raise money' half held only briefly: Tesla raised ~$2.7 billion in May 2019.)",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tesla-earnings-q3-2018.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c163",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#v9-full-self-driving-features-august-2018",
   "title": "First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2018-06-10",
   "first_deadline": "2018-08-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2020-10-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 163,
     "date_made": "2018-06-10",
     "deadline": "2018-08-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of our long-awaited Tesla Version 9. To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1005782088841232385",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#v9-full-self-driving-features-august-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Version 9 didn't ship in August — it began rolling out in October 2018, and it contained no 'full self-driving features.' Its flagship addition was Navigate on Autopilot, a supervised highway feature, while the Full Self-Driving package was actually pulled from Tesla's order pages that same month, with Musk calling it 'too confusing.' FSD-branded features didn't reach customers until years later. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): V9 (Oct 2018) shipped with zero FSD features, but Tesla did 'begin to enable full self-driving features' via software update on Oct 20, 2020, when the first city-streets FSD Beta reached Early Access customers — ~26 months late, supervised where full self-driving was promised, and initially limited to a small group.",
    "url": "https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-to-release-fsd-beta-to-early-assess-program-eap-members-today"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c166",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/#chicago-ohare-loop-18-to-24-months",
   "title": "Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)",
   "company": "Boring Company",
   "topic": "Tunnels & Transport",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2018-06-14",
   "first_deadline": "2021-06-14",
   "current_deadline": "2021-06-14",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 166,
     "date_made": "2018-06-14",
     "deadline": "2021-06-14",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than three years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ise2EKRUWGc",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/#chicago-ohare-loop-18-to-24-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Not a single shovel ever went into the ground. The project's champion, Mayor Rahm Emanuel, left office in May 2019; his successor Lori Lightfoot called Musk's no-city-money plan 'a total fantasy,' and within a year of the announcement the O'Hare Express Loop was reported dead. The Boring Company quietly dropped it, and no contract was ever finalized — let alone an operational system within Musk's three-year outer bound. (Abandoned 2019-06-14.)",
    "url": "https://www.archpaper.com/2019/06/ohare-express-system-elon-musk-system-dead/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c167",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-insurance-in-about-a-month-2019/",
   "title": "Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-04-24",
   "first_deadline": "2019-05-24",
   "current_deadline": "2019-05-24",
   "resolved_date": "2019-08-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 167,
     "date_made": "2019-04-24",
     "deadline": "2019-05-24",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/04/25/tesla-inc-tsla-q1-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-insurance-in-about-a-month-2019/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla Insurance launched on August 28, 2019 — about four months after the 'about a month' promise, not one — and only in California, with claimed savings of 20-30% for Tesla owners. Hours after launch Tesla had to take the quote tool briefly offline for an algorithm fix; expansion to other states took years (Texas followed in 2021).",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/tesla-starts-selling-its-own-car-insurance-in-california.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c168",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#shanghai-gigafactory-timeline-2019",
   "title": "Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2019-01-07",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-12-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 168,
     "date_made": "2019-01-07",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume production next year",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082116267568377857",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#shanghai-gigafactory-timeline-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "All three legs landed. The Giga Shanghai building shell was completed in mid-2019, trial Model 3 production began in October, and the first 15 customer cars were delivered on December 30, 2019 — 357 days after groundbreaking, a record for a car plant in China. High-volume production followed in 2020, with roughly 150,000 vehicles built despite the pandemic.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/tesla-begins-deliveries-of-china-made-model-3-cars.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c169",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/covid-close-to-zero-new-cases-april-2020/",
   "title": "Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2020-03-19",
   "first_deadline": "2020-04-30",
   "current_deadline": "2020-04-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 169,
     "date_made": "2020-03-19",
     "deadline": "2020-04-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/covid-close-to-zero-new-cases-april-2020/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The US was reporting roughly 25,000-35,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day at the end of April 2020 — about a million cumulative cases by April 28 — not 'close to zero'. The pandemic went on to kill over a million Americans, making this one of Musk's most cited failed predictions.",
    "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c170",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#tesla-robotaxi-unveil-on-8-8-2024",
   "title": "Tesla Robotaxi unveil on August 8, 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2024-04-05",
   "first_deadline": "2024-08-08",
   "current_deadline": "2024-08-08",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-10",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 170,
     "date_made": "2024-04-05",
     "deadline": "2024-08-08",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#tesla-robotaxi-unveil-on-8-8-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The robotaxi unveil did not happen on 8/8. Tesla pushed the event to October 10, 2024 — Bloomberg reported in July that the team needed more time to build prototypes — and the 'We, Robot' event at Warner Bros. studio finally showed the Cybercab two months late.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/elon-musk-hypes-a-30000-tesla-cybercab-robovan-at-robotaxi-event.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c171",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-subscription-early-2021",
   "title": "FSD subscription released early 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2020-12-20",
   "first_deadline": "2021-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2021-07-17",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 171,
     "date_made": "2020-12-20",
     "deadline": "2021-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340592138829099009",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-subscription-early-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The $199/month FSD subscription did not arrive in 'early' 2021 — Tesla launched it on July 17, 2021, roughly a quarter or two after the promised window, and owners with older HW2.5 computers had to pay $1,500 for a hardware upgrade to subscribe.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/tesla-debuts-fsd-subscription-for-199-per-month.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c172",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-end-of-2024",
   "title": "Grok 3 by end of 2024",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2024-07-01",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-02-17",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2024",
    "Feb 2025"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 172,
     "date_made": "2024-07-01",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1807643760584708363",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-end-of-2024"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 457,
     "date_made": "2025-02-13",
     "deadline": "2025-02-27",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we're really in the final stages of polishing Grok 3. Probably it gets released in about a week or two.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV396ioBs3g&t=812s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-release-in-a-week-or-two"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Grok 3 did not ship by the end of 2024 — TechCrunch flagged the miss on January 2, 2025, noting it added to a trend of delayed frontier models. xAI ultimately released Grok 3 on February 17, 2025, about a month and a half late.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/02/xais-next-gen-grok-model-didnt-arrive-on-time-adding-to-a-trend/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c173",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-2-comes-out-august-2024",
   "title": "Grok 2 comes out in August 2024",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-07-01",
   "first_deadline": "2024-08-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-08-14",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 173,
     "date_made": "2024-07-01",
     "deadline": "2024-08-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes out in August, will be a giant improvement in this regard.",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1807637096129241529",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-2-comes-out-august-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Delivered on time: xAI released Grok 2 and Grok 2 mini in beta to X Premium subscribers on August 13-14, 2024, inside the promised August window — one of the rare Musk ship dates hit as stated.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/13/xais-grok-can-now-generate-images-on-x/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c174",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/25k-tesla-in-3-years-battery-day/",
   "title": "$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2020-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2023-09-22",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Sep 2023",
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 174,
     "date_made": "2020-09-22",
     "deadline": "2023-09-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/25k-tesla-in-3-years-battery-day/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 344,
     "date_made": "2024-01-24",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "But our current schedule says that we will start production towards the end of 2025, so sometime in the second half. That's just what our current schedule says.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-4Q23-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/25k-tesla-in-3-years-battery-day/#tesla-next-gen-low-cost-vehicle-production-2h-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No all-new low-cost Tesla platform began production in 2025. Tesla instead launched cheaper 'Standard' trims of the Model Y and Model 3 in October 2025 on existing lines. Cybercab, the next-gen platform's first product, began production at Giga Texas in 2026.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/07/tesla-reveals-slightly-cheaper-standard-versions-of-the-model-3-and-model-y/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c175",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/4680-pilot-10-gwh-within-a-year/",
   "title": "4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2020-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2021-09-22",
   "current_deadline": "2021-09-22",
   "resolved_date": "2024-09-14",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 175,
     "date_made": "2020-09-22",
     "deadline": "2021-09-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/4680-pilot-10-gwh-within-a-year/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "At Battery Day (Sep 2020) Musk said the Kato Road 4680 pilot plant would reach a 10 GWh/year capacity in about a year. The pilot line never got there — it stayed a development facility. But the substance arrived roughly three years late elsewhere: Tesla's Giga Texas 4680 lines scaled past a 10 GWh/year run rate by 2024 (its 100-millionth 4680 cell was announced Sep 14, 2024, ~15-17 GWh annualized), and output kept growing into 2026. Graded partial: Tesla did reach 10+ GWh/year of 4680 production, but not via the pilot plant the claim named and about three years late.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2024/09/16/tesla-produced-100-millionth-battery-cell-heres-what-it-means/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c176",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-v2-direct-to-phone-2023",
   "title": "Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2022-08-26",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-01-02",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 176,
     "date_made": "2022-08-26",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1562956451538014209",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-v2-direct-to-phone-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No direct-to-phone satellites launched in 2023. The full-size Starlink V2 needed Starship and never flew on schedule; SpaceX instead launched its first six direct-to-cell satellites on a Falcon 9 on January 2, 2024, and the first satellite texts were sent January 10, 2024. T-Mobile's commercial T-Satellite texting service did not launch until July 2025, and dead zones were not 'eliminated worldwide'.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/spacex-t-mobile-send-first-texts-via-starlink-satellites.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c180",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-creator-ad-revenue-share-starting-today/",
   "title": "Creator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-02-03",
   "first_deadline": "2023-02-03",
   "current_deadline": "2023-02-03",
   "resolved_date": "2023-07-13",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 180,
     "date_made": "2023-02-03",
     "deadline": "2023-02-03",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Starting today, Twitter will share ad revenue with creators for ads that appear in their reply threads",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1621544497388875777",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-creator-ad-revenue-share-starting-today/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Nothing started that day. No revenue-sharing program existed in February 2023; the first creator payouts went out July 13, 2023 — five months after 'starting today' — when Musk announced the first $5 million block of payments to verified creators.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/13/twitter-starts-sharing-ad-revenue-with-verified-creators/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c182",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/",
   "title": "First people on the Moon in less than 5 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2021-08-15",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2024",
    "Apr 2029",
    "2031"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 182,
     "date_made": "2021-08-15",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Probably sooner",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1426713672706052101",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/#starship-humans-on-moon-sooner-than-2024"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 403,
     "date_made": "2024-04-08",
     "deadline": "2029-04-08",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "So taking, I think, I think we'll get people back to the moon, I should say within five years and we'll get uncrewed ships landed on Mars within five years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rQBZ3vKRA0&t=904s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/#people-on-moon-and-ships-on-mars-within-five-years"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 230,
     "date_made": "2026-07-08",
     "deadline": "2031-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think we'll have landed our first people on the moon in less than 5 years. We might be able to put the first astronauts on the moon in 2 to 3 years and then expand rapidly from there so that in say 10 years from now there are thousands of people on the moon.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uFXlSRTlfU",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 15 2026: no SpaceX or NASA crew has landed on the Moon. Wikipedia Artemis III is a 2027 low-Earth-orbit docking demo (NET June 2027), not a landing; first crewed lunar landing is planned as Artemis IV in early 2028. Musk's 'less than 5 years' window from the July 2026 statement runs to end of 2031. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c183",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/",
   "title": "Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-07-24",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-04-07",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2021"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 417,
     "date_made": "2019-07-24",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "until we have European cake factory operational and that's but that that's probably a couple years before it you know probably 2021",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3DXoI9x-Qc&t=1922s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#europe-gigafactory-operational-2021"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 183,
     "date_made": "2021-01-27",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 429,
     "date_made": "2021-10-09",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we're aiming to start production in a few months, basically November or December in terms of and hopefully deliver our first cards in December",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twFLent82bM&t=1096s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#giga-berlin-first-deliveries-december-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Neither factory started production in 2021. Giga Berlin — delayed by German permitting — delivered its first Model Ys on March 22, 2022, and Giga Texas held its 'Cyber Rodeo' opening with first deliveries on April 7, 2022, roughly a quarter past the promise.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/gigafactory-berlin-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-opens-electric-vehicle-plant.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c185",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#xai-open-source-grok-this-week",
   "title": "xAI will open source Grok 'this week' (March 2024)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-03-11",
   "first_deadline": "2024-03-17",
   "current_deadline": "2024-03-17",
   "resolved_date": "2024-03-17",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 185,
     "date_made": "2024-03-11",
     "deadline": "2024-03-17",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "This week, @xAI will open source Grok",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1767108624038449405",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#xai-open-source-grok-this-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Delivered, barely inside the window: xAI published the Grok-1 base-model weights and architecture (314B-parameter MoE, Apache 2.0) on Sunday, March 17, 2024 — the last day of the promised week. Notably it was the raw pre-training checkpoint, not the fine-tuned model that powered Grok on X.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2024/03/17/xai-open-sources-base-model-of-grok-but-without-any-training-code/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c187",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-v12-to-customers-in-two-weeks",
   "title": "FSD v12 to customers in 'about 2 weeks' (Nov 2023)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-11-12",
   "first_deadline": "2023-11-26",
   "current_deadline": "2023-11-26",
   "resolved_date": "2024-03-11",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 187,
     "date_made": "2023-11-12",
     "deadline": "2023-11-26",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "About 2 weeks",
     "source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1723852174818471956",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-v12-to-customers-in-two-weeks"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Customers did not get FSD v12 in two weeks. Tesla pushed v12 to employees on November 24, 2023, but the customer rollout the question actually asked about only began with v12.3's wide release in March 2024 — roughly four months later. The episode cemented 'two weeks' as a running joke among Tesla watchers.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2024/03/26/tesla-fsd-beta-free-trial-promotion-driver-assistance/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c188",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031",
   "title": "5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-13",
   "first_deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 188,
     "date_made": "2026-06-13",
     "deadline": "2031-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2065705276334833951",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: azmth/CelesTrak live count as of Oct 25 07:53 UTC is 16,792 active satellites, of which 11,140 are Starlink (~66% of all active sats, ~1.97× the rest of the world's 5,652). Still far from 5× the rest of the world. Deadline 2031. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://azmth.space/stats"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c189",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#1-million-tons-to-orbit-2031",
   "title": "1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-10",
   "first_deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 189,
     "date_made": "2026-06-10",
     "deadline": "2031-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2064519180464861192",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#1-million-tons-to-orbit-2031"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: Starship Flight 14 (Sep 28) remains the first orbital Starship mission (26 Starlink V3 sats, then splashdown). Flight 15 is still unflown (Wikipedia NET Nov 8). There is still no operational Starship cadence and no 1 million tons/year to orbit. Deadline 2031. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c191",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-von-neumann-probe",
   "title": "A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-17",
   "first_deadline": null,
   "current_deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 191,
     "date_made": "2026-06-17",
     "deadline": null,
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2067128845623611830",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-von-neumann-probe"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: Tesla's Q3 letter says Optimus production began on Fremont high-volume lines for internal/commercial-process use. Wikipedia Optimus still has no spaceflight, self-replicating probe, or solar-panel legion in orbit or on another body. Undated aspiration. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/21/tesla-stars-optimus-robot-production-in-california-as-profit-falls-43/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c192",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-stockfish-level-coding",
   "title": "AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-16",
   "first_deadline": "2028-03-01",
   "current_deadline": "2028-03-01",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "undated (Jun 16 2026 tweet)",
    "2028-03-01 (G20: next year / 12–18 months)"
   ],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 192,
     "date_made": "2026-06-16",
     "deadline": "2028-03-01",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2066880262668247091",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-stockfish-level-coding"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 21 2026: x.ai/news still leads with Grok 4.7 (Sep 21) as SpaceXAI's latest public coding/knowledge-work model. Grok 4.8 remains unreleased. Vendor scores on 4.7: CursorBench 4.0 46.3%, DeepSWE v1.1 71.0% (high), Terminal-Bench 4.0 37.6% — competitive with other frontier models, not a Stockfish-level (decisively superhuman) coding/computer-use bar. Deadline 2028-03-01. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-4-7"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c193",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#recover-starship-ship-intact-2025",
   "title": "Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-02-28",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 193,
     "date_made": "2025-02-28",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it back intact this year. We might be able to refly one with a fair bit of work by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSOxPJD-VNo",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#recover-starship-ship-intact-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Said on JRE #2281 (Feb 28, 2025), so 'this year' = 2025. SpaceX never recovered a Starship upper-stage SHIP intact in 2025. Across all 2025 flights the ship was either destroyed or, at best, did a controlled ocean splashdown and was NOT brought back: Flight 7 (Jan 16) ship exploded over Turks & Caicos; Flight 8 (Mar 6) ship lost attitude control and was lost; Flight 9 (May 27, Ship 35) broke up on re-entry; Flight 10 (Aug 26) made a powered splashdown in the Indian Ocean (not recovered); Flight 11 (Oct 13, the final flight of 2025) softly splashed down in the Indian Ocean then tipped over and exploded. Only the Super Heavy BOOSTER was caught by the tower during 2025 — catching the booster ≠ recovering the ship. No ship was caught by the tower or returned to land intact in 2025. The 'get it back intact this year' milestone was MISSED.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c195",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#conversational-grok-in-fsd",
   "title": "Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2026-06-18",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 195,
     "date_made": "2026-06-18",
     "deadline": "2026-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2067430722399539385",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#conversational-grok-in-fsd"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Deadline Sep 30 2026 passed without the June 18 FSD planning-layer commands ('Hey Grok, turn right here' / drop-off-then-park). Tesla's Sep 22 Grok Bot launch lets owners run cabin/errand tasks while FSD drives. A Sep 29 owner demo of 'Grok, turn right up ahead' is a fan-built Tesla navigation-API hack, not a shipped Tesla feature. Re-checked Oct 25 2026: no Tesla/Elon receipt of mid-drive FSD planning-layer commands. Missed.",
    "url": "https://www.teslaoracle.com/2026/08/28/tesla-merges-fsd-v14-3-8-and-the-summer-update-2026-26-6-5-grok-voice-commands-gain-more-control/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c196",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years/",
   "title": "Economy 10x bigger in 10 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-03-13",
   "first_deadline": "2036-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2036-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 196,
     "date_made": "2026-03-13",
     "deadline": "2036-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfortable prediction.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: FOMC Sep 16 2026 SEP remains the latest projection — median real GDP growth 2.3% (2026) / 2.4% (2027) / 2.2% (2028) — not a path to 10× world output by 2036. Deadline Dec 31 2036. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c197",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030",
   "title": "SpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-14",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 197,
     "date_made": "2026-06-14",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2066273584645869808",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: SpaceX Q3 2026 revenue $14.575B (Motley Fool transcript Oct 20); first-nine-month 2026 revenue $27.1B. Management guided $100B ARR by Dec 2026 and $500B–$1T ARR by end-2027 — still two orders of magnitude below ~$1T annual revenue in 2030. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/20/spacex-spcx-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c198",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/",
   "title": "Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-09-10",
   "first_deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 198,
     "date_made": "2025-09-10",
     "deadline": "2027-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around 2 years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeZqZBRA-6Q",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: FCC Oct 6 order (DA 26-1078) licensed a 15,000-sat D2D constellation using EchoStar AWS-4/H-block, but SpaceX may not start commercial operations in those bands until the EchoStar transfer closes (targeted Nov 2027). TechTimes Oct 23: Shotwell still points to next-gen Starlink Mobile by end of 2027, contingent on chipset availability. Today's T-Satellite service uses partner PCS, not the acquired EchoStar bands. No shipping handset is using that spectrum. Deadline Sep 30 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/329424/20261023/fcc-trades-tower-mandate-orbital-milestones-starlink-mid-band-license-transfer.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c199",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026",
   "title": "A new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-28",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 199,
     "date_made": "2026-06-28",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2071184354756477041",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 16 2026: xAI newsroom latest public foundation model is still Grok 4.7 (Sep 21). October's newsroom drop is Grok Voice 3.0 (Oct 14), a voice model, not a completely-from-scratch new foundation model. That is not a monthly cadence of from-scratch models through year-end. Grok 4.8 remains unreleased. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c200",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-american-airlines-2027",
   "title": "Starlink comes to American Airlines by 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-23",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 200,
     "date_made": "2026-06-23",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Starlink coming to @AmericanAir next year!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2069535601892987275",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-american-airlines-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: American Airlines' Oct 8 newsroom release still says installations of Starlink across the entire mainline fleet (1,000+ aircraft) will begin in early 2027. No passenger Starlink service is flying on American yet. Deadline end of 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2026/Full-fleet-full-speed-full-connection-American-Airlines-will-bring-Starlink-to-every-mainline-jet-MKG-OB-10/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c201",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#xai-open-source-0-5t-model-2026",
   "title": "xAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-05-25",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 201,
     "date_made": "2026-05-25",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2058796067592736866",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#xai-open-source-0-5t-model-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: Hugging Face xai-org still lists only grok-1 (Mar 2024) and grok-2 (Nov 2025). No 0.5T / 500B Grok weights. xAI has open-sourced Grok Build (a coding agent), not the 0.5T model. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://huggingface.co/xai-org"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c202",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-10-ships-2026",
   "title": "SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-05-18",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 202,
     "date_made": "2026-05-18",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2056399924246278366",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-10-ships-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 16 2026: Wikipedia List of Starship vehicles shows 2026 flights of Ship 39 (Flight 12, May 21, expended), Ship 40 (Flight 13, Jul 24, retired after ocean recovery), and Ship 41 (Flight 14, Sep 28, expended). Ship 42 is listed as engine installation for unflown Flight 15; Ships 43–45 are under construction. That is three completed 2026 ships plus a handful in the pipeline, not ~10 finished this year. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_vehicles"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c203",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#xai-catches-up-to-leaders-2026",
   "title": "xAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-03-14",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 203,
     "date_made": "2026-03-14",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need the James Webb telescope to see who is in second place",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2032816322929897506",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#xai-catches-up-to-leaders-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: BenchLeader/Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 lists Grok 4.7 (xhigh) 32nd at 46.5, behind Claude Opus 5.5 (57.6), Claude Sonnet 5.5 (56), Muse Wonder Full (55.8), Kimi K3.1 Pro (55.1) and GPT-6 Astra (52.7). xAI has not caught up to the leaders. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.benchleader.com/benchmarks/aa_intelligence_index"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c204",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-next-gen-3x-2026",
   "title": "Next-gen Neuralink implant (3X capability) ready by end of 2026",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-01-28",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 204,
     "date_made": "2026-01-28",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "The next generation Neuralink cybernetic augment with 3X capability will be ready later this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2016575739655504070",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-next-gen-3x-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 23 2026: VOICE-trial participant Terry still has a 3,000-channel investigational implant (~3× the original ~1,024-electrode N1). Neuralink has not announced that a next-gen 3X product line is ready or FDA-approved; coverage still describes the device as experimental. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.neurapod.com/neuralink-patients/terence-mandable"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c205",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grokipedia-exceeds-wikipedia-2026",
   "title": "Grokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-01-02",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 205,
     "date_made": "2026-01-02",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grokipedia-exceeds-wikipedia-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: English Wikipedia has 7,255,016 articles (Wikipedia:Size of Wikipedia, 12:12 UTC Oct 25). Grokipedia's own page still lists 6,092,140 articles (displayed total frozen since ~Jan 10 2026). Grokipedia has not far exceeded Wikipedia. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Size_of_Wikipedia"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c206",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-v3-20kw-at-scale-2026",
   "title": "Starlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-12-10",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 206,
     "date_made": "2025-12-10",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1998872465087541752",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-v3-20kw-at-scale-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: Wikipedia List of Starlink launches counts 46 V3 satellites launched as of Oct 27 (20 on Flight 13 plus 26 orbital on Flight 14, Sep 28). Jonathan McDowell via X Oct 24: 26 V3s still raising orbits. SpaceX says V3 volume ramps through end-2026 and 2027. 46 birds is first orbital deploy, not 'launched at scale'. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshield_launches"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c207",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-95pct-earth-payload-2026",
   "title": "SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 207,
     "date_made": "2025-09-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1969988976259092692",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-95pct-earth-payload-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: Elon Times mass-to-orbit tracker (updated Oct 27) has SpaceX at 1,672 t / 81.0% of 2,065 t YTD through Oct 17. BeInCrypto/ooinsights mid-Oct put the share near 80%. Motley Fool Q3 recap cited 90% mass-to-orbit in the quarter, still not >95% for the year. Starship is not yet flying frequently with real payloads. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://elontimes.com/mass-to-orbit"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c208",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-variant-us-production-2026/",
   "title": "New Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2025-08-20",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-07-08",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 208,
     "date_made": "2025-08-20",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1958069174892474729",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-variant-us-production-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said on Aug 20, 2025 that this Model Y variant would not start US production until the end of 2026. Tesla beat that: the six-seat Model Y L opened US orders on July 2, 2026 (Launch Series from $61,990) and the first US-built Model Y L rolled off the line at Giga Texas as reported on July 8, 2026, with customer deliveries scheduled to begin in September 2026 — roughly five months ahead of his stated timeline.",
    "url": "https://thedriven.io/2026/07/08/tesla-starts-us-production-of-best-selling-6-seater-model-y-l/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c209",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/",
   "title": "SpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-06-03",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 209,
     "date_made": "2025-06-03",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "@SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929950051415273504",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: NASA FY2026 enacted appropriations remain $24.4 billion (Wikipedia Budget of NASA). SpaceX Q3 space+connectivity was $7.015B (Starlink $5.248B + rockets $1.767B); AI/SI $7.56B is not space-commercial. Nine-month space-commercial is still below NASA's budget and 2026 is not closed. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_NASA"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c211",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-cortex-2-half-gigawatt-mid-2026/#cortex-first-half-active-2026",
   "title": "First half of Cortex active by April 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2026-03-07",
   "first_deadline": "2026-04-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-04-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 211,
     "date_made": "2026-03-07",
     "deadline": "2026-04-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "First half of Cortex will be active next month",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2030166566277632192",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-cortex-2-half-gigawatt-mid-2026/#cortex-first-half-active-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Cortex (Tesla/xAI Giga Texas AI supercomputer) reportedly brought its first ~250MW phase — the 'first half' — online in April 2026, matching the 'next month' timeline; full buildout targeted mid-2026.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c212",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-2-order-of-magnitude-2026",
   "title": "Grok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2026-02-17",
   "first_deadline": "2026-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-03-18",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 212,
     "date_made": "2026-02-17",
     "deadline": "2026-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes next month.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2023836036896555294",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-2-order-of-magnitude-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Grok 4.2 shipped and improved on Grok 4, but gains were incremental (e.g. ~75% SWE-bench), not the promised 'order of magnitude' smarter and faster. Date added in the 2026-07-05 verdict audit: the partial fulfillment is anchored to ~Mar 18, 2026, when Grok 4.2 exited public beta — the exact reference point of the claim ('when the public beta concludes'). Grok 4.2 shipped and improved on Grok 4, but benchmarks (~70.8% SWE-Bench vs GPT-5's ~74.9% and Claude 4.5's 80.9%) are nowhere near 'an order of magnitude smarter and faster.'",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c213",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-code-oneshot-upgrade-2026",
   "title": "Major Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2026-01-08",
   "first_deadline": "2026-02-28",
   "current_deadline": "2026-02-28",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-17",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 213,
     "date_made": "2026-01-08",
     "deadline": "2026-02-28",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2009167253741424855",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-code-oneshot-upgrade-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "A major coding upgrade landed on time: Grok 4.20 launched in beta Feb 17, 2026 with a multi-agent architecture aimed at one-shotting complex tasks (the standalone Grok Build agent came later, in May). Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): the promise named Grok Code specifically, and that product line never received the upgrade — grok-code-fast-1 was deprecated May 15, 2026 without a successor in the window. What landed near the deadline was Grok 4.20 beta (Feb 17), a general-purpose flagship with strong one-shot coding, and the dedicated coding agent (Grok Build) only reached early beta May 14 — ~2.5 months late. Substance adjacent, promise-as-stated unfulfilled.",
    "url": "https://www.verdent.ai/guides/grok-for-coding-2026"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c214",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-420-3-weeks-grok5-2025",
   "title": "Grok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2025-12-09",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-17",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 214,
     "date_made": "2025-12-09",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1998470209066160405",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-420-3-weeks-grok5-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Grok 4.20 slipped from the ~3-week (late-Dec 2025) target to a Feb 17, 2026 beta; Grok 5 remained in training with no release as of mid-2026. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): Grok 4.20 genuinely shipped — public beta Feb 17, 2026, ~7 weeks past the '~3 weeks' deadline — so 'missed' was factually wrong. Partial rather than delivered-late because the compound promise's second half (Grok 5 'a few months later') never materialized: Q1 slipped, Q2 passed, and as of July 2026 Grok 5 is still in training with no release date.",
    "url": "https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2026/02/xai-launches-grok-4-20-and-it-has-4-ai-agents-collaborating.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c215",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/open-source-all-x-codebase-2026/",
   "title": "Open-source the entire X codebase",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2025-12-05",
   "first_deadline": "2026-01-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-01-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-01-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 215,
     "date_made": "2025-12-05",
     "deadline": "2026-01-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "hopefully by next month, we should be able to open source literally all of the @X codebase. Nothing left out at all.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1996989600602996811",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/open-source-all-x-codebase-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Partial — algorithm only (Jan 20 2026). Fetched Oct 27 2026: GitHub xai-org/x-algorithm README is still the For You ranking stack (latest commit 2f25214 Oct 27, 'Open-source X Recommendation Algorithm'). No public drop of the full X codebase. Status stays partial.",
    "url": "https://github.com/xai-org/x-algorithm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c216",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-chat-security-open-source-2026/",
   "title": "Security-test and open-source all of X Chat",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2026-02-09",
   "first_deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 216,
     "date_made": "2026-02-09",
     "deadline": "2026-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2020912495381057909",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-chat-security-open-source-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised (Feb 9, 2026) that 'in the next few months' X would run rigorous security tests of X Chat AND open-source all the code (window closing mid-2026). That did not happen by the deadline: no whitepaper, no public source, no independent audit; the only Trail of Bits review of X Chat's protocol is dated October 2025, four months BEFORE this promise, so it cannot count. Musk has since restated the pledge with a new target — on July 24, 2026 he said 'Next month, every line of code touching the X system will be open source and third-party audited' (i.e. August 2026) — but as of August 13, 2026 the code is still not open-sourced. The goal has not been renounced, so the overdue clock keeps ticking.",
    "url": "https://www.esecurityplanet.com/cybersecurity/xs-new-encrypted-chat-has-major-security-flaws-experts-warn/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c218",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-algorithm-purely-ai-nov-2025/",
   "title": "X algorithm 'purely AI' by November 2025",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-09-19",
   "first_deadline": "2025-11-30",
   "current_deadline": "2025-11-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-01-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 218,
     "date_made": "2025-09-19",
     "deadline": "2025-11-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "The algorithm will be purely AI by November, with significant progress along the way.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1969081066578149547",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-algorithm-purely-ai-nov-2025/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised (Sep 19, 2025) 'the algorithm will be purely AI by November.' November passed with the main feed still on the legacy stack (in late October he was still promising to remove heuristics 'within 4-6 weeks'). But the promised thing shipped about seven weeks late: on Jan 20, 2026 X released its new production For You algorithm — live on the platform and open-sourced — which 'relies entirely' on a Grok-based transformer, with all hand-engineered ranking features removed. Delivered-late: purely-AI ranking arrived, just not by November.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/20/x-open-sources-its-algorithm-while-facing-a-transparency-fine-and-grok-controversies/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c219",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-v3-built-tested-2025",
   "title": "Starship V3 built & tested by end of 2025",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-08-27",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-22",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 219,
     "date_made": "2025-08-27",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1960812698037518540",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-v3-built-tested-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said on Aug 27, 2025 that Starship V3 should be 'built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.' V3 was not ready by Dec 31, 2025 — V2 flew through 2025. V3 finally debuted on Flight 12 on May 22, 2026: it reached space, deployed 22 Starlink simulators and the Ship splashed down in the Indian Ocean as planned (the Super Heavy booster crash-landed downrange). Built, tested and flown — about five months past the end-2025 target.",
    "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-starship-v3-megarocket-first-test-flight"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c220",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-imagine-v2-step-change-2025",
   "title": "Grok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-08-13",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-01",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 220,
     "date_made": "2025-08-13",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1955645757899641294",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-imagine-v2-step-change-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The promised Grok Imagine video step-change did not land by end of 2025; Imagine 1.0 shipped Feb 1, 2026 and the leaderboard-topping V1.5 followed in May 2026, months late.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c221",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-step-change-update-2025",
   "title": "FSD update: step-change for rare conditions",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-08-08",
   "first_deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "resolved_date": "2025-10-07",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 221,
     "date_made": "2025-08-08",
     "deadline": "2025-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953658200471040159",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-step-change-update-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised the September FSD update as a step-change for rare conditions; a bug delayed it and FSD v14 only began rolling out in early October 2025, missing the deadline.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c222",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#dojo-2-online-2025",
   "title": "Bring Dojo 2 online in 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2025-06-05",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 222,
     "date_made": "2025-06-05",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "We start bringing Dojo 2 online later this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930689309860045184",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#dojo-2-online-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla never brought Dojo 2 online: Musk shut down the entire Dojo project and disbanded the team in August 2025, calling Dojo 2 'an evolutionary dead end' and pivoting to AI5/AI6.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c223",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#first-factory-to-customer-self-delivery-2025",
   "title": "First autonomous factory-to-customer delivery",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2025-05-29",
   "first_deadline": "2025-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2025-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2025-06-27",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 223,
     "date_made": "2025-05-29",
     "deadline": "2025-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1927970940874354941",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#first-factory-to-customer-self-delivery-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla completed its first fully autonomous factory-to-customer delivery of a Model Y in Austin on June 27, 2025 — no human in the vehicle, one day ahead of schedule.",
    "url": null
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c224",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-catch-end-of-2024",
   "title": "Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2023-10-05",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-11-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 5,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2024",
    "2025",
    "2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14)",
    "2026-11 (a few months)",
    "2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds)",
    "Nov 2026"
   ],
   "statements": 4,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 430,
     "date_made": "2023-10-05",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0Hrz_Kv2L8&t=266s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-catch-end-of-2024"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 224,
     "date_made": "2025-05-14",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1922585324766507425",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-caught-by-tower-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 237,
     "date_made": "2026-07-25",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2080876967839031712",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#spacex-ship-tower-catch-next-flight"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 507,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2026-11-30",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "For Flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we're going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. This will be, if we succeed, will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-flight-15-catch-booster-and-ship-november-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: Wikipedia Starship flight 15 still NET November 8; Space.com Oct 21 records the planned simultaneous booster-and-ship catch. The flight has not launched, so neither catch has happened. Deadline Nov 30 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c226",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-cpp-stack-massive-gains",
   "title": "Massive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2026-06-29",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 226,
     "date_made": "2026-06-29",
     "deadline": "2026-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++ and massively simplified (most software layers will be deleted completely) and we exact-map Grok to work incredibly well on a GB300",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2071385784154759468",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-cpp-stack-massive-gains"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Deadline Sep 30 2026 passed with no public receipt of 'truly massive gains' from a full C/C++ training-and-inference rewrite exact-mapped to GB300. Fetched Oct 25 2026: docs.x.ai/docs/models still lists grok-4.7 as the flagship with no grok-4.8 id; x.ai/news latest model post is still Introducing Grok 4.7 (Sep 21). Internal C++ pre-training without shipped inference/GB300 gains is not the June 29 promise. Missed.",
    "url": "https://docs.x.ai/docs/models"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c227",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-sold-to-public-2027",
   "title": "Selling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-01-22",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 227,
     "date_made": "2026-01-22",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-sold-to-public-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: Electrek / AI Business (Oct 22) — first deliveries are to outside companies around end of 2027 for industrial work; no household-buyer date, no public Tesla sales route, MSRP or consumer orders. Deadline end of 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/10/22/tesla-optimus-delivery-late-2027-hands-ai-problems/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c228",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/",
   "title": "1 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-06-08",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 228,
     "date_made": "2026-06-08",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space AI compute.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG5Quo6xA74",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: no SpaceX orbital AI-compute constellation is flying at gigawatt scale. Open-sweep Oct 26: official Starmind page still plans Gigasat deployment of thousands of AI satellites as soon as late 2027. Earth-side Colossus is not space compute. Deadline end of 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.spacex.com/spacexsi/starmind"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c229",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-5-public-release",
   "title": "Grok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2026-07-08",
   "first_deadline": "2026-07-09",
   "current_deadline": "2026-07-09",
   "resolved_date": "2026-07-09",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 229,
     "date_made": "2026-07-08",
     "deadline": "2026-07-09",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more token-efficient and lower cost.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2074740539874775163",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-5-public-release"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk announced on July 8, 2026 that xAI would make Grok 4.5 public the next day. It shipped on schedule: as of July 9, 2026 Grok 4.5 is live on the xAI API (priced $2/1M input, $6/1M output tokens), set as the default in Grok Build, available across all Cursor plan tiers, and on the SpaceXAI console (EU excluded at launch). Musk billed it as an 'Opus-class' model that is faster, more token-efficient and lower cost.",
    "url": "https://docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c231",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/working-optional-in-20-years/",
   "title": "Working will be optional in less than 20 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-11-30",
   "first_deadline": "2045-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2045-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 231,
     "date_made": "2025-11-30",
     "deadline": "2045-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby pretty much.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rni7Fz7208c",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/working-optional-in-20-years/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 15 2026: 'Working will be optional' remains a long-horizon claim (deadline 2045). Wikipedia Optimus still has Gen 3 unrevealed as of September 2026. No material evidence that working is optional as a hobby in any major economy. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c232",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/",
   "title": "US output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-11-30",
   "first_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 232,
     "date_made": "2025-11-30",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "In 3 years or less, my guess is goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth in about 3 years. Maybe after those three years you have deflation and then interest rates go to zero.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rni7Fz7208c",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 15 2026: the US has not entered a goods-and-services-growth-exceeds-money-supply-growth deflation regime. FOMC Sep 2026 SEP median real GDP growth is 2.3% (2026) / 2.4% (2027) / 2.2% (2028); median PCE inflation 3.7% in 2026, not deflation. Deadline 2028. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c236",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#semi-self-driving-end-2026-early-2027",
   "title": "Self-driving working on the Tesla Semi by end of 2026 or early 2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-07-22",
   "first_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 236,
     "date_made": "2026-07-22",
     "deadline": "2027-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi, probably around the end of this year or early next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H5y9Uag8AA",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/#semi-self-driving-end-2026-early-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: no receipt that self-driving is working on the Tesla Semi. Customer Semis still require a licensed commercial driver. Tesla has shown Semi test trucks with FSD validation / ground-truthing hardware (June 2026 sightings) and launched high-volume Semi production Sep 24, but that is not FSD working. Deadline Mar 31 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.ttnews.com/articles/tesla-semi-high-volume"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c238",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-robot-singularity-ten-years",
   "title": "AI robot singularity is 10 years away",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-07-23",
   "first_deadline": "2036-07-23",
   "current_deadline": "2036-07-23",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 238,
     "date_made": "2026-07-23",
     "deadline": "2036-07-23",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "The AI robot singularity is 10 years away.",
     "source": "https://elonmuskarchive.org/video/economist-elon-musk-2026-07-23",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-robot-singularity-ten-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: no public receipt that an 'AI robot singularity' has arrived. Optimus V3 remains unrevealed as a commercial product; xAI's newsroom flagship is still Grok 4.7 (Sep 21) plus Grok Voice 3.0 (Oct 14). Deadline 2036-07-23. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c239",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-6-out-in-a-week",
   "title": "Grok 4.6 comes out in a week (by Aug 6, 2026)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2026-07-30",
   "first_deadline": "2026-08-06",
   "current_deadline": "2026-08-06",
   "resolved_date": "2026-08-07",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 239,
     "date_made": "2026-07-30",
     "deadline": "2026-08-06",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "And Grok 4.6 comes out in a week",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2082707547203518569",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-6-out-in-a-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On July 30, 2026 Musk said Grok 4.6 would 'come out in a week' (~Aug 6). xAI publicly released Grok 4.6 on August 7, 2026 — one day past the implied deadline. It is a 1.5T-parameter model on the same V9 foundation as Grok 4.5, with gains from improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. Delivered, one day late.",
    "url": "https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/musk-announces-grok-4-6-release-on-august-7-2026"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c241",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/money-wont-matter-2036/",
   "title": "Money won't matter by 2036",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-07-23",
   "first_deadline": "2036-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2036-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 241,
     "date_made": "2026-07-23",
     "deadline": "2036-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Money won't matter in 2036.",
     "source": "https://elonmuskarchive.org/video/economist-elon-musk-2026-07-23",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/money-wont-matter-2036/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Searched Oct 18 2026: coverage of Musk's 2036 money-won't-matter line remains a forecast (The Economist interview and later restatements). Money still rations goods, housing, and capital. Deadline 2036-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://tech.yahoo.com/ai/articles/elon-musk-says-money-might-145749353.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c242",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-flight-a-day-within-year",
   "title": "Starship flies at least once a day within a year",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-04",
   "first_deadline": "2027-08-04",
   "current_deadline": "2027-08-04",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 242,
     "date_made": "2026-08-04",
     "deadline": "2027-08-04",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day, possibly more.",
     "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-spacex-beats-revenue-estimates-in-q2-2026-shares-swing-93CH-4836052",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-flight-a-day-within-year"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: Starship is not flying daily. Flight 14 launched Sep 28; Flight 15 is NET November 8. Cadence remains weeks between flights, not one a day. Deadline 2027-08-04. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c243",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#terafab-50x-pentagon",
   "title": "Terafab will be 50× the size of the Pentagon when complete",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-07",
   "first_deadline": null,
   "current_deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 243,
     "date_made": "2026-08-07",
     "deadline": null,
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Terafab will be 50 times the size of the Pentagon when complete",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2085530890759749760",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#terafab-50x-pentagon"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: Terafab is still a planned Grimes County, Texas chip campus. County/state filings describe four phases through 2036 and ~100 million sq ft at full build-out; Phase 1 is 2026–28. Site work/clearing reported, not a completed 50×-Pentagon building. No deadline. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.enr.com/articles/63809-spacex-records-fight-exposes-119b-terafab-buildout-plans"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c244",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-safe-for-humans-2027",
   "title": "Starship safe enough to fly people by end of 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-04",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 244,
     "date_made": "2026-08-04",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-spacex-beats-revenue-estimates-in-q2-2026-shares-swing-93CH-4836052",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-safe-for-humans-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 18 2026: Starship has flown 14 times through Flight 14 (Sep 28 2026), the first orbital mission, which still carried no crew. Wikipedia's launch list (reviewed Oct 17, fetched today) shows none crewed. Flight 15 is upcoming NET Nov 8 and uncrewed. No SpaceX/Musk claim that the vehicle is already human-rated. Deadline end of 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c246",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-100-billion-arr-december-2026",
   "title": "SpaceX reaches $100 billion-plus ARR in December 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-04",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 246,
     "date_made": "2026-08-04",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/11/spacex-spcx-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-100-billion-arr-december-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 19 2026: KeepTrack Oct 19 — SpaceX Q3 due Oct 20 (Street $12.89B); Evercore still treats a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate as a year-end target, not a current result. Q2 2026 revenue was $7.81B (~$31B annualized). Deadline Dec 31 2026 has not passed. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://keeptrack.space/x-report/spacex-brief-2026-10-19"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c247",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-reused-in-2025",
   "title": "Starship ship reused in 2025",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-04-04",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "Mar 2027"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 402,
     "date_made": "2024-04-04",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI&t=1382s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-reused-in-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 247,
     "date_made": "2026-08-20",
     "deadline": "2027-03-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2090305535937851863",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-first-ship-reflight-early-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: no Starship upper stage has been reflown. Ship 40, recovered from the Indian Ocean after Flight 13, returned to Starbase Megabay in mid-October for inspection (SpaceX: first Ship back at the launch site) — data collection, not a reflight. Flight 15 is planned with new Ship 42. Deadline Mar 31 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.notebookcheck.net/SpaceX-brings-Starship-back-to-launch-site-for-the-first-time-three-months-after-launch.1424321.0.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c248",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#vera-rubin-nvl72-orbit-q4-2027",
   "title": "Space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 launches to orbit in Q4 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-24",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2027"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 248,
     "date_made": "2026-08-24",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to orbit in Q4 next year, with significant scale in 2028",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2091939113008238838",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#vera-rubin-nvl72-orbit-q4-2027"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 496,
     "date_made": "2026-10-15",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "The Star Mind computer being co-engineered by SpaceX and Nvidia is far better than almost anyone expects and will reach volume production next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2110789964430786745",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/#spacex-nvidia-starmind-volume-production-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until December 31, 2027 (volume production 'next year' from October 2026).",
    "url": "https://x.com/firesidealpha/status/2110731226776789366"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c250",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-30-launches-per-day-2030",
   "title": "30+ Starship launches per day in 2030",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-21",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 250,
     "date_made": "2026-08-21",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2090597441552679012",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-30-launches-per-day-2030"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: Wikipedia List of Starship launches (reviewed Oct 18) still counts 14 Starship flights total as of Sep 28, not 30+ per day. Flight 15 has not launched (NET Nov 8). Deadline 2030-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c251",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starbase-louisiana-dozen-towers",
   "title": "Starbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-25",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 251,
     "date_made": "2026-08-25",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights per day and making it the biggest launch site on Earth!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2092292773915537580",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starbase-louisiana-dozen-towers"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: Wikipedia SpaceX Starbase, Louisiana still lists the site as planned (Vermilion Parish; 12 launch pads planned; construction expected 2027, first launch targeting 2029). No towers built, no launches. Deadline 2030-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starbase,_Louisiana"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c252",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-3-5-trillion-revenue-2033",
   "title": "SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-27",
   "first_deadline": "2033-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2033-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 252,
     "date_made": "2026-08-27",
     "deadline": "2033-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2093063724282138821",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-3-5-trillion-revenue-2033"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 20 2026: SpaceX Q2 2026 revenue was $7.81 billion (company earnings, recapped on Exploding Topics Oct 20). Q3 results are due after the close today; consensus is about $13 billion, still not a $3.5 trillion annual run-rate. Management is targeting ~$100 billion ARR by Dec 2026 and ~$1 trillion revenue around 2030. Deadline 2033-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://explodingtopics.com/blog/spacex-revenue"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c253",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#100-million-humanoid-robots-five-years",
   "title": "At least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-05-19",
   "first_deadline": "2031-05-19",
   "current_deadline": "2031-05-19",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 253,
     "date_made": "2026-05-19",
     "deadline": "2031-05-19",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PTCFgmUVaE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#100-million-humanoid-robots-five-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 21 2026: Electrek Sep 25 reports Tesla ramped Optimus to several hundred/week in August, targeting 1,000/week by year-end — still internal test/training units, not a global installed base of 100 million humanoid robots. Deadline 2031-05-19. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/09/25/tesla-optimus-production-ramp-hands-ai-generalization-problems/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c254",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-doubles-in-five-to-seven-years/",
   "title": "Global economy doubles in 5–7 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-05-19",
   "first_deadline": "2033-05-19",
   "current_deadline": "2033-05-19",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 254,
     "date_made": "2026-05-19",
     "deadline": "2033-05-19",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PTCFgmUVaE",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-doubles-in-five-to-seven-years/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 21 2026: IMF October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 — not a doubling. Global output has not doubled since the May 19 2026 statement. Deadline 2033-05-19 (L10 generous 7-year end). Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c255",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-inhouse-turbine-casting-18-months/",
   "title": "In-house SpaceX turbine casting pulls nat-gas turbines forward by up to 18 months",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-29",
   "first_deadline": "2028-02-29",
   "current_deadline": "2028-02-29",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 255,
     "date_made": "2026-08-29",
     "deadline": "2028-02-29",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "By doing in-house casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate nat gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, which is a profound game-changer.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2093794565274669068",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-inhouse-turbine-casting-18-months/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 21 2026: AustinIO Bastrop foundry page — construction/buildout underway, hiring active, permits pending as of September 2026, operational date not announced. No independent receipt that in-house casting has already pulled turbines online by up to 18 months. Deadline 2028-02-29. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://austinio.com/bastrop-turbine-blade-foundry.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c256",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-digital-superhuman-end-2027",
   "title": "AI does any digital work at superhuman level by end of 2027",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-31",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 256,
     "date_made": "2026-08-31",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "AI will be able to do anything digital (that doesn’t require shaping atoms) at a superhuman level by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2094242307511853196",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-digital-superhuman-end-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 21 2026: x.ai/news still leads with Grok 4.7 (Sep 21), SpaceXAI's latest public model for coding and knowledge work. Vendor benches mixed vs Fable 5.1 / GPT-5.6 Sol (CursorBench 46.3%, Terminal-Bench 37.6%) — not a claim that AI can do any digital work at superhuman level. Deadline 2027-12-31. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-4-7"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c257",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-compute-15gw-cannot-turn-on-2027/",
   "title": "~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-29",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 257,
     "date_made": "2026-08-29",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2093810234141634702",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-compute-15gw-cannot-turn-on-2027/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 22 2026: the claim is a 2027 outcome (deadline Dec 31 2027) and has not resolved. Industry coverage still treats a multi-gigawatt 2027 power/transformer/cooling bottleneck as live (grid interconnection often 24–72 months; transformer lead times still years). No 2027 chip/power-on data exists yet. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.emsnow.com/global-datacenter-capacity-where-are-the-bottlenecks/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c258",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#billion-humanoid-robots-ten-years",
   "title": "Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-01",
   "first_deadline": "2036-09-01",
   "current_deadline": "2036-09-01",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 258,
     "date_made": "2026-09-01",
     "deadline": "2036-09-01",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFUp66FB4xw",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#billion-humanoid-robots-ten-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 17 2026: Wikipedia's Optimus page still has Generation 3 unrevealed (as of September 2026). Tesla has published no fleet anywhere near a billion humanoid robots. Deadline 2036-09-01. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c259",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-7-out-in-10-days",
   "title": "Grok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2026-09-01",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-16",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-16",
   "resolved_date": "2026-09-21",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2026-09-11 (in 10 days)",
    "2026-09-16 (a few more days)"
   ],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 259,
     "date_made": "2026-09-01",
     "deadline": "2026-09-16",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Grok 4.7 comes out in 10 days",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2094983639780204846",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-7-out-in-10-days"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Deadline Sep 16 2026 passed with no public Grok 4.7 (Missed Sep 17). On Sep 21 2026, xAI publicly released Grok 4.7 — available today in Cursor and Grok Build, and on the xAI API as grok-4.7 (docs.x.ai/docs/models lists it as the flagship text model; release notes confirm API availability). Delivered, 5 days late.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-4-7"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c260",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-austin-30k-jobs-by-2028/",
   "title": "Over 30k high-paying Tesla jobs in Austin by 2028",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-03",
   "first_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 260,
     "date_made": "2026-09-03",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Probably over 30k people working in high-paying jobs at Tesla HQ & manufacturing in Austin by 2028!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2095604997668892983",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-austin-30k-jobs-by-2028/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 15 2026: Tesla finished 2025 with 16,506 Austin-area employees (Travis County compliance report via Austin American-Statesman). No newer official 2026 headcount this run. Musk's Sep 3 claim is over 30k high-paying Tesla HQ & manufacturing jobs in Austin by 2028 — still roughly a doubling from the ~16.5k baseline. Deadline Dec 31 2028. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.statesman.com/business/article/tesla-expansion-mustang-ridge-austin-gigafactory-22414197.php"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c261",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-doubles-in-five-to-seven-years/#ai-robots-double-economy-under-10-years",
   "title": "AI+robots more than double the global economy in under 10 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-09",
   "first_deadline": "2036-09-08",
   "current_deadline": "2036-09-08",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 261,
     "date_made": "2026-09-09",
     "deadline": "2036-09-08",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "AI+robots will more than double the global economy in less than 10 years",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2097686835338375265",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-doubles-in-five-to-seven-years/#ai-robots-double-economy-under-10-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 27 2026: IMF October 2026 WEO still projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, not a doubling. Deadline 2036-09-08. No Musk restatement of a new date. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c262",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#most-epic-demo-ever-by-end-of-2025",
   "title": "'Most epic demo ever' by end of 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-07-14",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-10-15",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "2026-10-01 (New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01)",
    "2026-10-15 (postponed by 2 weeks / QT Tesla Oct 15)"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 307,
     "date_made": "2025-07-14",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Just left the @Tesla design studio. Most epic demo ever by end of year. Ever.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1944585146952470601",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#most-epic-demo-ever-by-end-of-2025"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 262,
     "date_made": "2026-09-12",
     "deadline": "2026-10-15",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2098932438055469451",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/#roadster-unveil-october-1-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled the second-generation Roadster on October 15 2026 at SpaceX's McGregor rocket-test site near Waco, livestreamed on X. The demo used SpaceX cold-gas thrusters and a suction system to drive upside down, flip, and land; Musk said production starts in 2028. Deadline was Oct 15 after Elon's Sep 29 two-week weather postponement. Delivered on the current deadline.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/tesla-reveals-spacex-powered-roadster-that-flies-and-falls-with-style/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c263",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-8-finish-training-this-week",
   "title": "Grok 4.8 finishes training this week (by Sep 20, 2026)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2026-09-13",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-20",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-20",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 263,
     "date_made": "2026-09-13",
     "deadline": "2026-09-20",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and start RL",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2099308197802631191",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-8-finish-training-this-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Deadline Sep 20 2026 passed with no public receipt that Grok 4.8 finished training. Fetched Oct 25 2026: docs.x.ai/docs/models has no grok-4.8 id; flagship listed is still grok-4.7. x.ai/news has no 4.8 post. Training-complete is an internal milestone with no public receipt. Missed; watch to flip missed → delivered-late if xAI/Elon confirms training finished / RL started, or any public 4.8 ships (L13).",
    "url": "https://docs.x.ai/docs/models"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c264",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-next-flight-september-22-2026",
   "title": "Next Starship flight on September 22, 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2026-09-15",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-22",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-22",
   "resolved_date": "2026-09-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Sep 2026"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 264,
     "date_made": "2026-09-15",
     "deadline": "2026-09-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Next Starship flight on 9/22",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2099927224761881030",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-next-flight-september-22-2026"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 274,
     "date_made": "2026-09-27",
     "deadline": "2026-09-28",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Starship Flight 14 aiming to launch tomorrow morning",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2104361390123430335",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-flight-14-september-28-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Sep 27 evening CT) said Starship Flight 14 was aiming to launch tomorrow morning — deadline Sep 28. Wikipedia Starship flight 14 (fetched Sep 29 2026) records liftoff at 2026-09-28 12:48:59 UTC (7:48:59 CDT) from Starbase OLP-2 — morning CT, on the named day. Super Heavy splashed down in the Gulf; Ship reached orbit, deployed Starlink Group 31-1, then splashed down in the Pacific. Literal launch-date claim delivered on time.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_14"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c265",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-v3-deploy-starts-september-2026",
   "title": "Starlink V3 constellation starts deploying this month (by Sep 30, 2026)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2026-09-15",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-09-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 265,
     "date_made": "2026-09-15",
     "deadline": "2026-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month. \n\nUltimately, it will deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of our current 11,000 satellite constellation.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2099933912697127398",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-v3-deploy-starts-september-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Sep 15) said Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month — deadline Sep 30. Fetched Sep 29 2026: Starship Flight 14 on Sep 28 reached orbit and deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites as Starlink Group 31-1, the first operational V3 batch (Flight 13's 20 V3s were suborbital and reentered). Space.com (Sep 28): 'Construction of the Starlink V3 satellite megaconstellation is officially underway.' Literal start-of-deployment claim delivered two days before the Sep 30 bound.",
    "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/wow-watch-spacexs-starship-megarocket-deploy-satellites-into-orbit-for-1st-time-ever-photos-video"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c267",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#terafab-rd-something-useful-end-2027",
   "title": "TeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-15",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2028-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2027",
    "Sep 2028"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 267,
     "date_made": "2026-09-15",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwBOQeFPAwg",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#terafab-rd-something-useful-end-2027"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 511,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2028-09-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/#terafab-useful-chips-at-volume-q3-2028"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of Q3 2028.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c268",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/#ai-doubles-us-gdp-growth-next-year-to-about-4-percent",
   "title": "AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year to ~4%",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-18",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 268,
     "date_made": "2026-09-18",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2101011740574052697",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/#ai-doubles-us-gdp-growth-next-year-to-about-4-percent"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: FOMC September 2026 SEP remains the latest projection — median real GDP growth 2.3% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027 (range 2.0–2.9%) — not ~4%. Musk's 'next year' (~4%) window is calendar 2027; deadline Dec 31 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c269",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starship-orbit-starlink-v3-operational-7-days",
   "title": "Starship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2026-09-21",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-28",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-28",
   "resolved_date": "2026-09-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 269,
     "date_made": "2026-09-21",
     "deadline": "2026-09-28",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "In 7 days, the first Starship launch to orbit will be carrying Starlink V3 satellites intended for operational use",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2102068280156414171",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starship-orbit-starlink-v3-operational-7-days"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Sep 21) said in 7 days the first Starship launch to orbit would carry Starlink V3 satellites intended for operational use — deadline Sep 28. Fetched Sep 29 2026: Wikipedia Starship flight 14 launched Sep 28 12:48:59 UTC, completed an orbital-insertion burn, and deployed all 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites as Group 31-1 (payload deploy complete +01:04:50). Scientific American: first operational payloads Starship carried to orbit. Literal orbit + operational-V3-payload claim delivered on the deadline day.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_14"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c270",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-beat-all-fields-by-end-2028",
   "title": "AI will beat all fields by end of 2027 or 2028 latest",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 270,
     "date_made": "2026-09-22",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "AI will beat all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2102451875140501761",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/#ai-beat-all-fields-by-end-2028"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 15 2026: Musk's Sep 22 claim that AI will beat all fields by end of 2027 or 2028 latest remains untested. India Today restates the dated forecast; no independent receipt that AI has surpassed humans across all scientific and professional fields. Deadline Dec 31 2028. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/news/story/elon-musk-says-ai-will-master-all-fields-by-2028-3001054-2026-09-23"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c271",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#spacex-fable-gpt6-level-model-2-3-months",
   "title": "SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-24",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-24",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-24",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 271,
     "date_made": "2026-09-24",
     "deadline": "2026-12-24",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2103151040858067289",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#spacex-fable-gpt6-level-model-2-3-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Sep 24) was 'cautiously optimistic' SpaceX would have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months (deadline Dec 24 2026). Fetched Oct 18 2026: docs.x.ai flagship is still grok-4.7; x.ai/news latest foundation-model post is Grok 4.7 (Sep 21); Oct 14 Grok Voice 3.0 is speech, not Fable/GPT-6 class. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://docs.x.ai/docs/models"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c272",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#colossus-220k-gb300-operational-next-week",
   "title": "Colossus +220k GB300 fully operational next week",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2026-09-24",
   "first_deadline": "2026-10-04",
   "current_deadline": "2026-10-04",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 272,
     "date_made": "2026-09-24",
     "deadline": "2026-10-04",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet another 220k GB300 by late December.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2103329761690865846",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#colossus-220k-gb300-operational-next-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Sep 24) said another 220k GB300 would be fully operational next week (outer bound Oct 4). The deadline passed with no independent confirmation the tranche is live. Re-fetched Oct 25 2026: Epoch AI Colossus 2 page is still last updated Jul 30 2026 and still lists Nvidia B200 / B300 hardware with no +220k GB300 operational receipt. Missed; watch to flip missed → delivered-late the moment Epoch/xAI/Elon confirm the tranche is live.",
    "url": "https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers/directory/colossus-2"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c273",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-hourly-flights-2-3-years",
   "title": "Starship hourly flights in 2–3 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-27",
   "first_deadline": "2029-09-27",
   "current_deadline": "2029-09-27",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 273,
     "date_made": "2026-09-27",
     "deadline": "2029-09-27",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Starship is 2 to 3 years away from hourly flights",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2104241521746649165",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-hourly-flights-2-3-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Sep 27 2026) said Starship is 2 to 3 years away from hourly flights (deadline Sep 27 2029). Fetched Oct 18 2026: Starship has completed Flight 14 (Sep 28, first orbit + Starlink V3); Flight 15 is NET Nov 8 — weeks between flights, not hourly. Status pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c275",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-90pct-commercial-q4-gov-under-5-2026",
   "title": "SpaceX ~90% commercial revenue in 2026; Q4 government share under 5%",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-02",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 275,
     "date_made": "2026-10-02",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Correct, roughly 90% of SpaceX’s revenue this year will be commercial. In Q4, our government revenue will be less than 5%!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2106085868209590570",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-90pct-commercial-q4-gov-under-5-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk (Oct 2) said roughly 90% of SpaceX 2026 revenue will be commercial and Q4 government revenue will be less than 5%. Fetched Oct 15 2026: TIKR notes that claim is still a forecast until SpaceX reports Q4; newest official mix is the Q2 2026 10-Q (Enterprise & Government $1.806B / 23% of $7.81B, mixed enterprise+gov). Q3 10-Q not out. Year-end commercial/gov split is not yet measurable. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/musk-fires-back-spacexs-government-revenue-will-be-less-than-5-in-q4"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c276",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-india-launch-2021/",
   "title": "Tesla enters India in 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2020-10-02",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-07-15",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 276,
     "date_made": "2020-10-02",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Next year for sure",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1311931936261263360",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-india-launch-2021/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Tesla would enter India 'next year for sure' (2021). Tesla registered Tesla India Motors and Energy in Jan 2021 but sold no cars; it formally entered India with a Mumbai showroom and Model Y orders on Jul 15 2025, about 3.5 years late.",
    "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sell-model-y-cars-starting-69766-india-2025-07-15/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c277",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-300mbps-20ms-2021",
   "title": "Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 2021",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2021-02-22",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 277,
     "date_made": "2021-02-22",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Speed will double to ~300Mb/s & latency will drop to ~20ms later this year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1363763858121256963",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-300mbps-20ms-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said speed would double to ~300Mb/s and latency drop to ~20ms in 2021. Ookla's US Starlink medians were 97.23Mb/s download in Q2 2021 and 87.25Mb/s in Q3 2021, with 44ms median latency in Q3. Neither target was met in 2021.",
    "url": "https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hughesnet-viasat-performance-q3-2021"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c278",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/#recession-until-spring-2024",
   "title": "Recession lasts until spring 2024",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-10-21",
   "first_deadline": "2024-06-20",
   "current_deadline": "2024-06-20",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 278,
     "date_made": "2022-10-21",
     "deadline": "2024-06-20",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1583320632174837760",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/#recession-until-spring-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk forecast a recession lasting until spring 2024. The NBER business-cycle chronology lists no US recession after April 2020; US real GDP grew through 2023 and 2024. The forecast recession did not happen.",
    "url": "https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c279",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/#boring-la-tunnel-opens-dec-10-2018",
   "title": "First Boring tunnel opens Dec 10, free public rides next day",
   "company": "Boring Company",
   "topic": "Tunnels & Transport",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2018-10-22",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-19",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-19",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2018-12-10 (opens Dec 10, free rides next day)",
    "2018-12-18 (product launch Dec 18)"
   ],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 279,
     "date_made": "2018-10-22",
     "deadline": "2018-12-19",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Opens Dec 10",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1054164838430064640",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/#boring-la-tunnel-opens-dec-10-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said the Hawthorne test tunnel would open Dec 10 2018 with free public rides on Dec 11. The opening slipped to Dec 18 (CNBC), when only invited media and guests rode; the tunnel stayed a private test facility and never offered public rides.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/elon-musk-opening-of-tunnel-under-hawthorne-la-delay-to-dec-18.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c280",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/#model-3-35k-3-to-6-months-after-5k-week",
   "title": "$35,000 Model 3 ships 3–6 months after 5k/week",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2018-05-21",
   "first_deadline": "2019-01-01",
   "current_deadline": "2019-01-01",
   "resolved_date": "2019-02-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 280,
     "date_made": "2018-05-21",
     "deadline": "2019-01-01",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/998400110156550144",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/#model-3-35k-3-to-6-months-after-5k-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reached 5,000 Model 3/week at the end of June 2018, putting Musk's window at Oct 2018–Jan 1 2019. Tesla announced the $35,000 Standard Model 3 on Feb 28 2019, roughly two months late; it was moved to off-menu in-store ordering weeks later.",
    "url": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c281",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-open-source-in-6-months",
   "title": "Grok 3 open-sourced in about 6 months",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-08-23",
   "first_deadline": "2026-02-28",
   "current_deadline": "2026-02-28",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 281,
     "date_made": "2025-08-23",
     "deadline": "2026-02-28",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "The @xAI Grok 2.5 model, which was our best model last year, is now open source. Grok 3 will be made open source in about 6 months.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1959379349322313920",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-open-source-in-6-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Grok 3 would be open-sourced in about 6 months (~Feb 2026). xAI's Hugging Face organization, checked Oct 11 2026, lists only xai-org/grok-1 and xai-org/grok-2; no Grok 3 weights have been released.",
    "url": "https://huggingface.co/xai-org"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c283",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-10-patients-end-2024",
   "title": "Neuralink implants 10 people by end of 2024",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-08-02",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 283,
     "date_made": "2024-08-02",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "It depends somewhat on the regulatory approval, the rate at which we get regulatory approvals. So, we’re hoping to do 10 by the end of this year, total of 10. So, eight more.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kbk9BiPhm7o",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#neuralink-10-patients-end-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk hoped for 10 Neuralink implants by end of 2024. In January 2025 he said Neuralink had implanted three people (Bloomberg, AP), far short of 10. Target missed.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-11/musk-says-neuralink-implanted-third-patient-with-brain-device"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c284",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/#summon-across-country-in-2-years",
   "title": "Summon your Tesla from across the country in ~2 years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-01-10",
   "first_deadline": "2018-01-10",
   "current_deadline": "2018-01-10",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 284,
     "date_made": "2016-01-10",
     "deadline": "2018-01-10",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/#summon-across-country-in-2-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said in January 2016 that within about two years Summon would bring a Tesla across the country, LA to NY. Summon today still works only within a parking lot, with the owner nearby; cross-country Summon never shipped.",
    "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-actually-smart-summon-feature-2024-9"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c286",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/#advanced-summon-ready-in-6-weeks-2018",
   "title": "Advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks (Nov 2018)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2018-11-01",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-13",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-13",
   "resolved_date": "2024-09-03",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Dec 2018",
    "Sep 2023"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 286,
     "date_made": "2018-11-01",
     "deadline": "2018-12-13",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars made in past 2 years (Autopilot hardware V2+).",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1057871356367269888",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/#advanced-summon-ready-in-6-weeks-2018"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 334,
     "date_made": "2023-06-21",
     "deadline": "2023-09-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Actually smart auto wiper software releases in about 3 weeks. Our patented, “Actually Smart Summon (ASS)” is probably a month or two after that.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1671703741626499075",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/#actually-smart-summon-mid-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk put Actually Smart Summon a month or two after mid-July 2023. Tesla released it on September 3 2024, about a year late.",
    "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2232/tesla-releases-actually-smart-summon-features-videos"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c287",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/#solar-roof-1000-per-week-end-2019",
   "title": "1,000 Solar Roofs a week by end of 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2019-07-30",
   "first_deadline": "2021-04-29",
   "current_deadline": "2021-04-29",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "end of 2019",
    "~Apr 2021 (Q1 2020 call: 'within the next year or maybe even by end of year')"
   ],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 287,
     "date_made": "2019-07-30",
     "deadline": "2021-04-29",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "Spooling up production line rapidly. Hoping to manufacture ~1000 solar roofs/week by end of this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1156005185656782848",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/#solar-roof-1000-per-week-end-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk hoped for about 1,000 Solar Roofs a week by end of 2019 (later restated toward 2021). Wood Mackenzie estimated Tesla installed only about 21 a week even in 2022, peaking around 3,000 US systems in seven years. In August 2026 Tesla discontinued Solar Roof: new tile orders closed, tesla.com/solarroof redirects to conventional panels. The 1,000-a-week goal is abandoned. Cancelled, not missed-and-counting.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/08/20/tesla-discontinues-solar-roof-panels-only/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c288",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-5-early-beta-next-week",
   "title": "Grok 3.5 early beta next week (May 2025)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-04-29",
   "first_deadline": "2025-05-06",
   "current_deadline": "2025-05-06",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 288,
     "date_made": "2025-04-29",
     "deadline": "2025-05-06",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Next week, Grok 3.5 early beta release to SuperGrok subscribers only.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1917099777327829386",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-5-early-beta-next-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said on April 29 2025 that a Grok 3.5 early beta would come the next week. No Grok 3.5 ever shipped; xAI skipped to Grok 4, released July 9 2025.",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260509094258/https:/x.ai/news/grok-4"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c289",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-billion-monthly-users-12-18-months/",
   "title": "Twitter tops a billion monthly users in 12–18 months",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-11-27",
   "first_deadline": "2024-05-27",
   "current_deadline": "2024-05-27",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 289,
     "date_made": "2022-11-27",
     "deadline": "2024-05-27",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1596751751532937217",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-billion-monthly-users-12-18-months/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk saw a path to over a billion monthly users by May 2024. In May 2024 he said X had about 600 million monthly active users, and X told advertisers about 570 million.",
    "url": "https://digiday.com/marketing/x-claims-to-advertisers-that-it-has-a-reach-of-570-million-monthly-active-users/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c290",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-v9-and-download-button-next-month-2021",
   "title": "FSD Beta V9 and the download button next month (April 2021)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2021-03-20",
   "first_deadline": "2021-04-30",
   "current_deadline": "2021-04-30",
   "resolved_date": "2021-09-25",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 290,
     "date_made": "2021-03-20",
     "deadline": "2021-04-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limited value to testing 8.x. Hoping to upload V9.0 & button next month.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1373145910549483522",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-v9-and-download-button-next-month-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk hoped to ship FSD Beta V9 and a public request button in April 2021. V9 reached early testers on July 10 2021 and the 'Request FSD Beta' button arrived with update 2021.32.22 on September 25 2021, about five months late.",
    "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-full-self-driving-elon-musk-beta-update-safety-score-2021-9"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c291",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-profitable-q1-2019-and-all-quarters",
   "title": "Tesla profitable in Q1 2019 and all quarters going forward",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-01-30",
   "first_deadline": "2019-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 291,
     "date_made": "2019-01-30",
     "deadline": "2019-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.",
     "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/01/31/tesla-tsla-q4-2018-earnings-conference-call-transc.aspx",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-profitable-q1-2019-and-all-quarters"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk was optimistic about a Q1 2019 profit and every quarter after. Tesla reported a Q1 2019 GAAP net loss of $702 million.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-earnings-q1-2019.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c292",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-10000-per-week-by-end-2018",
   "title": "Tesla hits a 10,000-car week by end of 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2017-08-02",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "end of 2018",
    "end of 2019 (Q4 2018 call)",
    "2019"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 292,
     "date_made": "2017-08-02",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-production-reservations/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-10000-per-week-by-end-2018"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 389,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "So what we're going to do this year is we're going to reach combined production of 10,000 a week between SX and 3.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE&t=11109s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#10000-cars-a-week-in-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla built about 105,000 cars in Q4 2019, about 8,000 a week. It didn't reach a sustained 10,000 a week across S, X and 3 that year.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc."
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c294",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/",
   "title": "Tesla vehicle sales grow 20–30% in 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-10-23",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 294,
     "date_made": "2024-10-23",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think 20 to 30% vehicle growth next year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-3Q24-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk guessed 20–30% vehicle growth in 2025. Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in 2025, down 8.6% from 2024.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/02/tesla-annual-sales-decline-9-as-its-overtaken-by-byd-as-global-ev-leader/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c295",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-8-to-10-metro-areas-end-2025",
   "title": "Robotaxi in 8–10 metro areas by end of 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-10-22",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 295,
     "date_made": "2025-10-22",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And then we do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.",
     "source": "https://signals.ai/symbol/tsla/earnings/q3-fy25/transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#robotaxi-8-to-10-metro-areas-end-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk expected Robotaxi in about 8 to 10 metro areas by end of 2025. At year end Tesla's ride service ran only in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area.",
    "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-missed-milestones-deadlines-2026-1"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c306",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#hundreds-of-thousands-self-driving-teslas-end-2026",
   "title": "Hundreds of thousands of self-driving Teslas in the US by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-05-20",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 306,
     "date_made": "2025-05-20",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "But my prediction is that probably by the end of next year we will have probably hundreds of thousands, if not— Over a million Teslas doing self-driving in the U.S.",
     "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/20/cnbc-transcript-elon-musk-sits-down-with-cnbcs-david-faber-live-on-cnbc-today-.html",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#hundreds-of-thousands-self-driving-teslas-end-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: Tesla's unsupervised Robotaxi fleet is hundreds of vehicles (Austin 300+ Cybercabs; Texas registry on the order of ~800), not hundreds of thousands. Unsupervised FSD for customer-owned cars was pushed to Q2 2027 and only inside Robotaxi zones. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/10/21/tesla-unsupervised-fsd-q2-2027-robotaxi-fleet/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c308",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-higher-sales-2024-than-2023",
   "title": "Tesla sells more cars in 2024 than in 2023",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-04-23",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 308,
     "date_made": "2024-04-23",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-1Q24-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-higher-sales-2024-than-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk expected higher sales in 2024 than 2023. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 cars in 2024, down 1.1% from 2023 and its first annual decline in over a decade.",
    "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-posts-first-fall-annual-deliveries-demand-slows-2025-01-02/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c309",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#half-million-to-million-cars-in-2020",
   "title": "Tesla makes half a million to a million cars in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2018-08-01",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2021-01-02",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 309,
     "date_made": "2018-08-01",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "We'll aim for a million in 2020, but somewhere between half a million and a million seems pretty likely.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-2Q18-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#half-million-to-million-cars-in-2020"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk aimed for a million cars in 2020 and called half a million to a million pretty likely. Tesla produced 509,737 and delivered 499,550 in 2020: inside his range at the very bottom, half his stated aim.",
    "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-2020-deliveries-beat-estimates-fall-just-short-musks-target-2021-01-02/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c310",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-profitable-q3-2019",
   "title": "Tesla back to profit in Q3 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2019-07-24",
   "first_deadline": "2019-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2019-09-30",
   "resolved_date": "2019-10-23",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 310,
     "date_made": "2019-07-24",
     "deadline": "2019-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable next quarter.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-2Q19-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-profitable-q3-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk expected Tesla to be profitable in Q3 2019. Tesla reported a surprise Q3 2019 net profit of $143 million.",
    "url": "https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/10/tesla-made-a-profit-of-143-million-in-q3-2019-on-record-deliveries/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c311",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-at-least-50-percent-growth-2022",
   "title": "At least 50% Tesla growth in 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2021-07-26",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 311,
     "date_made": "2021-07-26",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we feel confident of, say, at least a 50% growth year over year next year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-2Q21-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-at-least-50-percent-growth-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk was confident of at least 50% growth in 2022. Tesla delivered 1.31 million cars in 2022, up 40%; production rose 47%.",
    "url": "https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/2/23535573/tesla-vehicle-delivery-q4-2022-50-percent-growth"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c312",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/inflation-declines-toward-end-of-2022/",
   "title": "Inflation declines toward the end of 2022",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2022-07-20",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-01-12",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 312,
     "date_made": "2022-07-20",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "If I were to guess, and I wouldn't take this with a grain of salt, I think inflation is will decline towards the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-2Q22-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/inflation-declines-toward-end-of-2022/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk guessed in July 2022 that inflation would decline toward year end. US CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and fell to 6.5% by December.",
    "url": "https://apnews.com/article/december-2022-inflation-report-72bb938a443ab0500bd72d23f62214ad"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c313",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-1-8-million-deliveries-2023",
   "title": "Tesla delivers 1.8 million cars in 2023",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2023-07-19",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-01-02",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 313,
     "date_made": "2023-07-19",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got summer shutdowns to for a lot of factory upgrades.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-2Q23-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-1-8-million-deliveries-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk targeted 1.8 million deliveries in 2023. Tesla delivered 1,808,581.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2023-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c314",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#tesla-europe-gigafactory-site-by-end-of-2018",
   "title": "Tesla picks a European Gigafactory site before end of 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2018-08-02",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-11-12",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2018",
    "2019"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 386,
     "date_made": "2018-08-02",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I should say we are hoping to identify a gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1I9UtyZMTek&t=4178s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#tesla-europe-gigafactory-site-by-end-of-2018"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 314,
     "date_made": "2019-10-23",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "In fact, we will announce the location of that Gigafactory before the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-3Q19-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#europe-gigafactory-location-by-end-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Tesla would announce its European Gigafactory location before end of 2019. On November 12 2019 he announced it would be built near Berlin.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/12/elon-musk-picks-berlin-for-teslas-europe-gigafactory/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c316",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-plaid-production-oct-nov-2020/",
   "title": "Model S Plaid in production around Oct/Nov 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-09-17",
   "first_deadline": "2020-11-30",
   "current_deadline": "2020-11-30",
   "resolved_date": "2021-06-10",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Nov 2020",
    "Feb 2021"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 326,
     "date_made": "2019-09-17",
     "deadline": "2020-11-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "It's a start. We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid variant that goes into production around Oct/Nov next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1173992505672519680",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-plaid-production-oct-nov-2020/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 316,
     "date_made": "2021-01-27",
     "deadline": "2021-02-28",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "The Model S Plaid, we're actually in production now and we'll be delivering next month.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-4Q20-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-plaid-production-oct-nov-2020/#model-s-plaid-deliveries-next-month-feb-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said in January 2021 that Model S Plaid deliveries would start the next month. Tesla held the Plaid delivery event on June 10 2021, about three and a half months late.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/tesla-model-s-plaid-delivery-event.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c317",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/#difficult-recession-in-2023",
   "title": "A pretty difficult recession in 2023",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2023-01-25",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 317,
     "date_made": "2023-01-25",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-4Q22-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/#difficult-recession-in-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk predicted a pretty difficult recession in 2023. There was none: US real GDP grew 2.5% in 2023.",
    "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c318",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#giga-texas-optimus-factory-summer-2027",
   "title": "Second Optimus factory at Giga Texas starts production around summer 2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2027-09-22",
   "current_deadline": "2027-09-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 318,
     "date_made": "2026-04-22",
     "deadline": "2027-09-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "And we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start production around summer next year.",
     "source": "https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/TSLA-1Q26-transcript",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#giga-texas-optimus-factory-summer-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: Tesla Q3 2026 Update lists Texas Optimus as Construction (factory and tool installation), with no capacity figure. CFO Taneja said Tesla has started constructing a larger Austin Optimus factory than Fremont. Production has not started at Giga Texas. Deadline around summer 2027. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/22/tesla-austin-optimus-factory-bigger-fremont/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c319",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/#hyperloop-paper-in-about-four-weeks-2012",
   "title": "Hyperloop design published in about four weeks (2012)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2012-07-15",
   "first_deadline": "2012-08-12",
   "current_deadline": "2012-08-12",
   "resolved_date": "2013-08-12",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 319,
     "date_made": "2012-07-15",
     "deadline": "2012-08-12",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Will publish something on the Hyperloop in about four weeks. Will forgo patents on the idea and just open source it. Not a vac tunnel btw.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/224406502188916739",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/#hyperloop-paper-in-about-four-weeks-2012"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said in July 2012 he would publish the Hyperloop design in about four weeks. The Hyperloop Alpha paper came out on August 12 2013, about a year late.",
    "url": "https://archive.org/details/hyperloop_alpha"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c320",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-spacesuit-unveil-by-end-of-2013/",
   "title": "SpaceX unveils its new spacesuit by end of 2013",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2013-07-10",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2017-08-23",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2013",
    "2015"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 320,
     "date_made": "2013-07-10",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "New spacesuit almost done. Hoping to unveil by end of year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/354999620629303296",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-spacesuit-unveil-by-end-of-2013/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 488,
     "date_made": "2015-01-06",
     "deadline": "2015-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Our spacesuit design is finally coming together and will also be unveiled later this year",
     "source": "https://www.reddit.com/comments/2rgsan/_/cnfq5qf/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-spacesuit-unveil-by-end-of-2013/#spacex-spacesuit-unveiled-in-2015"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk hoped to unveil SpaceX's new spacesuit by end of 2013. He posted the first photo of it on August 23 2017, three and a half years late.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/23/elon-musk-shares-first-photo-of-spacexs-new-spacesuit/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c321",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/",
   "title": "Model 3 production starts in about two years (2015)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2014-06-03",
   "first_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2017-07-28",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2016",
    "Sep 2017",
    "2017"
   ],
   "statements": 3,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 450,
     "date_made": "2014-06-03",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "move in sync to market release in hopefully sort of the late 2016 timeframe",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDwEFvOh9co&t=909s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/#gen-3-tesla-market-release-late-2016"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 321,
     "date_made": "2015-09-02",
     "deadline": "2017-09-02",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafactory needed.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/639171519197777920",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 447,
     "date_made": "2016-03-31",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "when are deliveries? Well, they're next year, so. So I do feel fairly confident that it will be next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4VGQPk2Dl8&t=749s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/#model-3-deliveries-start-2017"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla handed over the first 30 Model 3s at a Fremont event on July 28, 2017.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c324",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/",
   "title": "Las Vegas Convention Center tunnel finished by end of 2019",
   "company": "Boring Company",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-05-22",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2021-06-08",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019",
    "2020"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 324,
     "date_made": "2019-05-22",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Boring Company starts digging Vegas tunnel in 2 months. Aiming to finish by end of year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1131373357922865152",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 390,
     "date_made": "2020-10-16",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "And we have the first production tunnel or useful tunnel in Vegas that's going to open in a month or two. So a few months I guess, and hopefully we'll be ready for prime time around the Consumer Electronics Show.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OnelpilSkU&t=1969s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/vegas-tunnel-finished-by-end-of-2019/#las-vegas-loop-opens-in-a-month-or-two"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The LVCC Loop carried its first convention visitors in April-June 2021 (World of Concrete, Jun 8 2021), months after the target. CES 2021 went virtual. It happened late: the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop carried its first convention visitors in June 2021. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_Vegas_Convention_Center_Loop"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c325",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/#hyperloop-competition-10km-tunnel-2020",
   "title": "2020 Hyperloop competition in a 10 km vacuum tunnel",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-07-21",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 325,
     "date_made": "2019-07-21",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Next year's @Hyperloop competition will be in a 10km vacuum tunnel with a curve",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1153144324915228673",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/#hyperloop-competition-10km-tunnel-2020"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said the 2020 Hyperloop pod competition would run in a 10 km vacuum tunnel with a curve. The tunnel was never built and no 2020 competition was held.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop_pod_competition"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c327",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-stack-ready-in-a-few-weeks-2021",
   "title": "First orbital Starship stack ready to fly in a few weeks (Aug 2021)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2021-08-14",
   "first_deadline": "2021-09-14",
   "current_deadline": "2021-09-14",
   "resolved_date": "2023-04-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 327,
     "date_made": "2021-08-14",
     "deadline": "2021-09-14",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1426715232475533319",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-stack-ready-in-a-few-weeks-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said in August 2021 that the first orbital Starship stack would be ready to fly in a few weeks. The first integrated flight came on April 20 2023, about 20 months later.",
    "url": "https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/04/20/spacex-launches-largest-rocket-ever-built-but-test-flight-ends-in-explosion/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c328",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-60-launches-in-2022",
   "title": "SpaceX aims for 60 launches in 2022",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2022-03-28",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-12-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 328,
     "date_made": "2022-03-28",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-60-launches-in-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk aimed for 60 Falcon launches in 2022. SpaceX flew 61, ending the year on December 30.",
    "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-closes-out-22-with-record-setting-61st-falcon-9-launch/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c331",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-ad-free-tier-in-2023/",
   "title": "Twitter offers a no-ads subscription tier in 2023",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2022-12-12",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-10-27",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 331,
     "date_made": "2022-12-12",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Basic Blue will have half the number of ads. We will offer a higher tier with no ads next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1602466059579232257",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-ad-free-tier-in-2023/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised a no-ads tier in 2023. X launched Premium+, with no ads in the For You and Following feeds, on October 27 2023.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/27/x-is-launching-new-premium-and-basic-subscription-tiers/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c332",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/open-source-all-x-codebase-2026/#twitter-recommendation-code-by-feb-2023",
   "title": "Twitter publishes its recommendation code by February 2023",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-01-13",
   "first_deadline": "2023-02-28",
   "current_deadline": "2023-02-28",
   "resolved_date": "2023-03-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 332,
     "date_made": "2023-01-13",
     "deadline": "2023-02-28",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Twitter will publish tweet recommendation code & make account/tweet status visible no later than next month. Transparency builds trust.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1613995936585519104",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/open-source-all-x-codebase-2026/#twitter-recommendation-code-by-feb-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk promised the recommendation code no later than February 2023. Twitter published it on GitHub on March 31 2023, a month late.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/31/twitter-reveals-some-of-its-source-code-including-its-recommendation-algorithm/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c333",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-launch-attempt-next-month-mar-2023",
   "title": "Starship launch attempt next month (March 2023)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-02-04",
   "first_deadline": "2023-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-04-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 333,
     "date_made": "2023-02-04",
     "deadline": "2023-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "If remaining tests go well, we will attempt a Starship launch next month",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1621998434289942529",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-launch-attempt-next-month-mar-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said SpaceX would attempt a Starship launch in March 2023. The first integrated flight launched on April 20 2023, about three weeks late.",
    "url": "https://apnews.com/article/spacex-starship-launch-elon-musk-d9989401e2e07cdfc9753f352e44f6e2"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c335",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-diner-ready-late-2023/",
   "title": "Tesla's LA diner ready later in 2023",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-08-04",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-07-21",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 335,
     "date_made": "2023-08-04",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Our Tesla futuristic diner (Grease meets The Jetsons with Supercharging) in LA should be ready later this year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1687694538863697920",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-diner-ready-late-2023/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said the Tesla diner in LA should be ready later in 2023. It opened in Hollywood on July 21 2025, about 19 months late.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/21/teslas-retro-futuristic-diner-officially-opens-as-elon-musk-hints-at-more-locations/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c336",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-for-all-premium-plus-next-week-2023",
   "title": "Grok available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week (Nov 2023)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2023-11-21",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-02",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-02",
   "resolved_date": "2023-12-08",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 336,
     "date_made": "2023-11-21",
     "deadline": "2023-12-02",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Yeah. Grok should be available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1727141345876402236",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-for-all-premium-plus-next-week-2023"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Grok would reach all Premium+ subscribers the next week. The rollout started on December 7 and was finished for US Premium+ users by December 8 2023, about a week late.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/08/xs-ai-chatbot-grok-now-rolled-out-to-all-u-s-premium-subscribers-english-language-users-are-next/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c337",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-1-5-next-month-feb-2024",
   "title": "Grok 1.5 out next month (February 2024)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2024-01-22",
   "first_deadline": "2024-02-29",
   "current_deadline": "2024-02-29",
   "resolved_date": "2024-03-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 337,
     "date_made": "2024-01-22",
     "deadline": "2024-02-29",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Yes, Grok 1.5 should be out next month with substantial improvements across the board",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1749481112076751120",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-1-5-next-month-feb-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Grok 1.5 would be out in February 2024. xAI announced Grok-1.5 on March 28 2024 and rolled it out to users over the next weeks.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-1.5"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c338",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/dragon-furthest-astronauts-in-50-years-2024/",
   "title": "Dragon takes astronauts farther than anyone in 50 years, in 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-02-09",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-09-10",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 338,
     "date_made": "2024-02-09",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "This year, the @SpaceX Dragon spaceship will take astronauts the furthest they've been from Earth in over half a century",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1756009604822020521",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/dragon-furthest-astronauts-in-50-years-2024/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Dragon would take astronauts farther from Earth than anyone in over 50 years during 2024. Polaris Dawn reached about 1,408 km in September 2024, the farthest since Apollo.",
    "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/spacex-set-launch-billionaires-private-crew-breakthrough-spacewalk-mission-2024-09-10/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c339",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-150-flights-in-2024",
   "title": "Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2024-03-18",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-12-31",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2024",
    "2025"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 444,
     "date_made": "2024-03-18",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUQzeUaGxBI&t=12s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-150-flights-in-2024"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 339,
     "date_made": "2024-11-27",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights!",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1861825141581152440",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-over-150-flights-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk aimed for more than 150 Falcon flights in 2025. SpaceX flew 165 Falcon 9 orbital launches that year, a record.",
    "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/spacex-shatters-its-rocket-launch-record-yet-again-167-orbital-flights-in-2025"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c340",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grokipedia-v0-1-in-two-weeks-2025",
   "title": "Grokipedia v0.1 published in two weeks (Oct 2025)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2025-10-04",
   "first_deadline": "2025-10-18",
   "current_deadline": "2025-10-18",
   "resolved_date": "2025-10-27",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 340,
     "date_made": "2025-10-04",
     "deadline": "2025-10-18",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Version 0.1 early beta of Grokipedia will be published in 2 weeks",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1974698202625679361",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grokipedia-v0-1-in-two-weeks-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk said Grokipedia v0.1 would be published within two weeks. It went live on October 27 2025, about nine days late, with about 885,000 articles.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/elon-musks-ai-wikipedia-competitor-grokipedia-goes-live.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c342",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#supercharger-100-percent-of-europe-2019",
   "title": "Superchargers cover 100% of Europe in 2019, Ireland to Kiev",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2018-12-26",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 342,
     "date_made": "2018-12-26",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Yes. Supercharger coverage will extend to 100% of Europe next year. From Ireland to Kiev, from Norway to Turkey.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1078021840444903424",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#supercharger-100-percent-of-europe-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla never opened a Supercharger in Ukraine. Ukrainian press noted in 2021 that the promised Kyiv-area stations still had not appeared, so coverage did not reach 'Kiev' or 100% of Europe in 2019.",
    "url": "https://focus.ua/uk/auto/478584-3000-poezdok-na-lunu-i-obratno-set-tesla-supercharger-v-evrope-vyrosla-do-6000-tochek-zaryadki"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c343",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#spacex-a-raptor-a-day-by-2020",
   "title": "SpaceX building about a Raptor engine a day by 2020",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-11-08",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-02-10",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 343,
     "date_made": "2019-11-08",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "SpaceX engine production is gearing up to build about a Raptor a day by next year, so up to 365 engines per year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1192605854270312448",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#spacex-a-raptor-a-day-by-2020"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX did not reach that rate in 2020. At the Feb 10 2022 Starbase update Musk said SpaceX was now making about one Raptor a day, about 14 months late.",
    "url": "https://payloadspace.com/starship-feb-22-update/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c345",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#10-billion-humanoid-robots-by-2040",
   "title": "At least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-10-29",
   "first_deadline": "2040-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2040-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 345,
     "date_made": "2024-10-29",
     "deadline": "2040-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If you say like 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. So on the order of 10 billion",
     "source": "https://elonmuskarchive.org/video/fii8-riyadh-2024-musk",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#10-billion-humanoid-robots-by-2040"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: Tesla just began early Optimus production at Fremont; Q3 Update lists no Optimus capacity figure. Global humanoid volumes remain in the tens of thousands. Far short of 10 billion. Deadline 2040. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2026-Update.pdf"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c347",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-20000-cars-in-2013",
   "title": "Tesla delivers more than 20,000 cars in 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2013-02-20",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2013-12-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 347,
     "date_made": "2013-02-20",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "I mean, I'm quite certain that we'll deliver more than 20,000 cars this year.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23987-q4-2012/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-20000-cars-in-2013"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered 22,477 Model S cars in 2013.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312514058778/d676319dex991.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c348",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-exit-2015-at-2000-cars-a-week",
   "title": "Tesla exits 2015 making 2,000 cars a week",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2014-07-31",
   "first_deadline": "2015-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2015-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 348,
     "date_made": "2014-07-31",
     "deadline": "2015-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We feel confident of exiting next year at 2,000 units a week of production and demand, absent some macroeconomic shock.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23981-q2-2014/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-exit-2015-at-2000-cars-a-week"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla built 14,037 cars in Q4 2015, about 1,100 a week, roughly half the promised rate.",
    "url": "https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/Q4_15_Tesla_Update_Letter"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c349",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-50-percent-growth-2015-and-2016",
   "title": "Tesla grows at least 50% in 2015 and again in 2016",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2014-11-05",
   "first_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2017-01-03",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 349,
     "date_made": "2014-11-05",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We feel pretty confident with at least a 50% increase next year, and a 50% increase the year after.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23980-q3-2014/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-50-percent-growth-2015-and-2016"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Deliveries rose from 31,655 in 2014 to 50,580 in 2015 (+60%) and to 76,230 in 2016 (+51%).",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/tesla-deliveries-totaled-76230-in-2016-slight-short-of-expectations.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c350",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-55000-cars-in-2015",
   "title": "Tesla delivers 55,000 cars in 2015",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2015-02-11",
   "first_deadline": "2015-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2015-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 350,
     "date_made": "2015-02-11",
     "deadline": "2015-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I should correct, even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I'm still confident we could do the 55,000 cars.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23979-q4-2014/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-55000-cars-in-2015"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered 50,580 cars in 2015, short of 55,000.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312516418701/d106308dex991.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c351",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#100k-to-200k-model-3s-in-second-half-2017",
   "title": "100,000-200,000 Model 3s built in the second half of 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-05-04",
   "first_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 351,
     "date_made": "2016-05-04",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "You know, as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23974-q1-2016/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#100k-to-200k-model-3s-in-second-half-2017"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla built 260 Model 3s in Q3 2017 and 2,425 in Q4 2017, about 2,700 in the half, under 3% of the low end.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/03/tesla-made-2425-model-3s-in-q4-2017-aims-to-make-2500-weekly-by-end-of-q1-2018/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c352",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-500000-cars-in-2018",
   "title": "Tesla builds 500,000 cars in 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-05-04",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 352,
     "date_made": "2016-05-04",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Well, I mean, obviously, if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production of on the order of 500,000 cars in 2018, can't be more than sort of two years to get there.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23974-q1-2016/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-500000-cars-in-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced 254,530 vehicles in 2018, about half the target.",
    "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/01/02/1679576/0/en/Tesla-Q4-2018-Vehicle-Production-Deliveries-Also-Announcing-2-000-Price-Reduction-in-US.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c353",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-1-million-vehicles-in-2020",
   "title": "Tesla makes close to 1 million vehicles in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-05-04",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 353,
     "date_made": "2016-05-04",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I mean, it's fair to say like probably like, you know, our 2020 target for volume is, you know, closer to, you know, maybe close to 1 million vehicles in 2020 or something like that.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23974-q1-2016/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-1-million-vehicles-in-2020"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020, about half of 1 million.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c354",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-half-a-million-cars-in-2020",
   "title": "Tesla makes half a million cars in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2015-08-05",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2021-01-02",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 354,
     "date_made": "2015-08-05",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "I do remain confident about half a million cars in 2020, and, you know, maybe being able to exceed that.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23977-q2-2015/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-half-a-million-cars-in-2020"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced 509,737 vehicles and delivered 499,550 in 2020, hitting the half-million mark on production.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c355",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#tesla-china-production-in-about-three-years-2017",
   "title": "Tesla China factory starts production in about three years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2017-11-01",
   "first_deadline": "2020-11-01",
   "current_deadline": "2020-11-01",
   "resolved_date": "2019-12-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 355,
     "date_made": "2017-11-01",
     "deadline": "2020-11-01",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "The China plan is sort of maybe something like ... a rough target of start of production in about three years.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23967-q3-2017/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#tesla-china-production-in-about-three-years-2017"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Giga Shanghai delivered its first China-built Model 3s on Dec 30 2019, about two years after the call and ahead of the three-year target.",
    "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/dec/30/tesla-delivers-first-china-made-cars-from-shanghai-factory"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c356",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012/#model-s-europe-deliveries-early-2013",
   "title": "Model S European deliveries start early 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2012-05-09",
   "first_deadline": "2013-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2013-08-07",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 356,
     "date_made": "2012-05-09",
     "deadline": "2013-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We expect to start delivering in Europe early next year, and we have not yet announced final pricing for Europe.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23990-q1-2012/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012/#model-s-europe-deliveries-early-2013"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The first European Model S deliveries happened in Oslo on Aug 7 2013, about four months after 'early' 2013.",
    "url": "https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086101_first-2013-tesla-model-s-delivered-outside-north-america--in-oslo"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c357",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cuphead-in-tesla-arcade-august-2019/",
   "title": "Cuphead arrives in Tesla Arcade in August 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-07-27",
   "first_deadline": "2019-08-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-09-26",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 357,
     "date_made": "2019-07-27",
     "deadline": "2019-08-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Cuphead for Tesla coming out in August",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1155147649814683648",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cuphead-in-tesla-arcade-august-2019/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Cuphead: Tesla Edition shipped in Software Version 10.0, which began rolling out on Sep 26 2019, about four weeks after August ended.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/26/tesla-v10-0-car-software-update-adds-smart-summon-netflix-youtube-spotify-karaoke-and-more/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c358",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-update-in-two-weeks-or-so-2019",
   "title": "Starship update presentation in 'two weeks or so' (July 2019)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-07-28",
   "first_deadline": "2019-08-11",
   "current_deadline": "2019-08-11",
   "resolved_date": "2019-09-28",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 358,
     "date_made": "2019-07-28",
     "deadline": "2019-08-11",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Now that Hopper has flown, Starship update probably in two weeks or so.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1155415096387969024",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-update-in-two-weeks-or-so-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The Starship update was held at Boca Chica on Sep 28 2019, about seven weeks after 'two weeks or so'.",
    "url": "https://spacenews.com/musk-vows-to-accelerate-starship-development/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c359",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-mk1-test-flight-in-one-to-two-months",
   "title": "Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-09-28",
   "first_deadline": "2019-11-28",
   "current_deadline": "2019-11-28",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 359,
     "date_made": "2019-09-28",
     "deadline": "2019-11-28",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Our plan is in basically one to two months to do the 20 kilometer or 65,000 foot flight with Starship Mark 1.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOpMrVnjYeY&t=3002s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-mk1-test-flight-in-one-to-two-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Starship Mk1 never flew. Its top bulkhead blew off during a pressure test on Nov 20 2019 and SpaceX retired the prototype. The first high-altitude Starship flight (SN8) came on Dec 9 2020.",
    "url": "https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/11/20/spacexs-first-starship-prototype-ruptures-during-cryogenic-test/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c360",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#supercharger-coverage-north-america-europe-end-of-2014",
   "title": "Superchargers cover North America and Europe by end of 2014",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2013-11-05",
   "first_deadline": "2014-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2014-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2014-12-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 360,
     "date_made": "2013-11-05",
     "deadline": "2014-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Just like Superchargers alone, we're aiming to have essentially all of North America covered in detail by the end of next year ... we expect to be able to travel anywhere in Europe, or at least Western Europe and many parts of Eastern Europe by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/23984-q3-2013/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#supercharger-coverage-north-america-europe-end-of-2014"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla grew from 64 to about 334 Supercharger stations in 2014 (141 in North America) and main corridors were covered, but large areas of North America and most of Eastern Europe had none.",
    "url": "https://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/30/north-american-tesla-supercharger-network-surpasses-chademo-charging-point-numbers/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c362",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/4680-pilot-10-gwh-within-a-year/#tesla-3-twh-battery-production-by-2030",
   "title": "Tesla makes 3 TWh of batteries a year by 2030",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2020-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 362,
     "date_made": "2020-09-22",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Long term, we're expecting to make on the order of 3,000 GWh per year. I think we've got a good chance of achieving this, actually, before 2030. But I'm highly confident that we could do it by 2030.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds&t=3803s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/4680-pilot-10-gwh-within-a-year/#tesla-3-twh-battery-production-by-2030"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 24 2026: Tesla Q3 Update lists battery cell manufacturing at Nevada LFP 7 GWh (early ramp) and Texas 4680 >40 GWh, plus Megapack 40+20+50 GWh. Installed cell + pack capacity is on the order of ~0.1 TWh, not 3 TWh. Deadline 2030. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2026-Update.pdf"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c364",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#tesla-next-fsd-chip-in-about-two-years-2019",
   "title": "Next Tesla self-driving chip (HW4) in about two years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "current_deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "resolved_date": "2023-01-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 364,
     "date_made": "2019-04-22",
     "deadline": "2021-04-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "We don't want to talk too much about the next-generation chip, but it'll be at least, let's say, three times better than the current system. About two years away.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE&t=6201s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#tesla-next-fsd-chip-in-about-two-years-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Hardware 4 first appeared in refreshed Model S and Model X builds in January 2023 (EU type approval Jan 20 2023), about 21 months late.",
    "url": "https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-hw4-computer-gets-type-approval-in-europe-comes-on-model-s-x-first-210161.html"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c366",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-flight-15-before-thanksgiving-2026",
   "title": "Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-10",
   "first_deadline": "2026-11-25",
   "current_deadline": "2026-11-25",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 366,
     "date_made": "2026-10-10",
     "deadline": "2026-11-25",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about right. Probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving is my guess.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUHHZsN7tPM",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-flight-15-before-thanksgiving-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: Wikipedia Starship flight 15 still lists NET November 8 2026, which is before Thanksgiving (Nov 26). The flight has not launched. Deadline Nov 25 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c367",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-cortex-2-half-gigawatt-mid-2026/",
   "title": "Tesla Cortex 2: half a gigawatt, operational by mid-2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2026-01-06",
   "first_deadline": "2026-07-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-07-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-07-22",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 367,
     "date_made": "2026-01-06",
     "deadline": "2026-07-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "Well, we have Cortex 2 that's being built out. That'll be half a gigawatt and operational middle of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSNuB9pj9P8&t=1107s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-cortex-2-half-gigawatt-mid-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Cortex 2 was listed as in Production in Tesla's Q2 2026 update (Jul 22 2026), so it was operational by mid-2026, but at more than 115 MW, roughly a quarter of the half gigawatt Musk described.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026049213/tsla-20260722-gen.pdf"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c368",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-1-first-launch-vandenberg-march-2004",
   "title": "Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2003-10-08",
   "first_deadline": "2004-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2004-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 368,
     "date_made": "2003-10-08",
     "deadline": "2004-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March of next year, basically early next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afZTrfvB2AQ&t=1383s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-1-first-launch-vandenberg-march-2004"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Falcon 1 never launched from Vandenberg. Its first launch came on Mar 24 2006 from Omelek Island in Kwajalein Atoll, two years late, and failed about 30 seconds after liftoff.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c369",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-dragon-on-falcon-9-end-of-2009/",
   "title": "First Dragon flies on Falcon 9 by end of 2009",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2009-04-07",
   "first_deadline": "2009-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2009-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2010-12-08",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 369,
     "date_made": "2009-04-07",
     "deadline": "2009-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft from Falcon 9.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CxU98Lc25Y&t=3585s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-dragon-on-falcon-9-end-of-2009/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Dragon first flew on Falcon 9 flight 2 (COTS Demo Flight 1) on Dec 8 2010, about a year after the end-2009 target. It happened late: Dragon flew on Falcon 9 on December 8 2010. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_COTS_Demo_Flight_1"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c370",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-first-launch-later-in-2009",
   "title": "Falcon 9 first launch later in 2009 from Cape Canaveral",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2009-08-11",
   "first_deadline": "2009-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2009-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2010-06-04",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 370,
     "date_made": "2009-08-11",
     "deadline": "2009-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "And then later this year we'll be launching our big rocket from Cape Canaveral.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktkV0N0Oask&t=299s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-first-launch-later-in-2009"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Falcon 9 made its first flight from Cape Canaveral on Jun 4 2010, about five months after the 2009 deadline. It happened late: Falcon 9 first flew on June 4 2010. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_1"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c372",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#half-of-new-cars-fully-autonomous-by-2022",
   "title": "Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2014-05-16",
   "first_deadline": "2022-05-16",
   "current_deadline": "2027-07-15",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "May 2022",
    "Jul 2027"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 372,
     "date_made": "2014-05-16",
     "deadline": "2022-05-16",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully autonomous.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxS9mlZ7n8s&t=1018s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#half-of-new-cars-fully-autonomous-by-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 437,
     "date_made": "2017-07-15",
     "deadline": "2027-07-15",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I think almost all cars produced will be autonomous in 10 years. Almost all. It will be rare to find one that is not in 10 years.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeKqlDURpf8&t=820s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#almost-all-new-cars-autonomous-by-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: Tesla's Q3 2026 Update still brands FSD as Supervised (active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous). California DMV (list dated Oct 21 2026) has Tesla Robotaxi LLC on drivered testing only, not driverless testing or deployment. Almost all new cars are not autonomous; July 2027 deadline has not passed. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c376",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#well-over-a-dozen-spacex-launches-in-2016",
   "title": "Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2015-12-21",
   "first_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 376,
     "date_made": "2015-12-21",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgNekVW0pps&t=423s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#well-over-a-dozen-spacex-launches-in-2016"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX flew 8 Falcon 9 missions in 2016, and the Amos-6 pad explosion on Sep 1 grounded the fleet for the rest of the year.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches_(2010%E2%80%932019)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c379",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#tesla-announces-gigafactory-locations-in-2017",
   "title": "Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2017-04-28",
   "first_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 379,
     "date_made": "2017-04-28",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJOefM3yB_8&t=1705s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#tesla-announces-gigafactory-locations-in-2017"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla named no new Gigafactory sites in 2017. Its Shanghai agreement came on Jul 10 2018 and Berlin was picked in November 2019.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Shanghai"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c380",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/#solar-roof-spanish-tile-french-slate-early-2018",
   "title": "Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production by early 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2017-06-06",
   "first_deadline": "2018-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 380,
     "date_made": "2017-06-06",
     "deadline": "2018-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "And then hopefully by early next year we'll be in production with the Spanish tile and the French slate versions.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9cT4jvn71A&t=396s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/#solar-roof-spanish-tile-french-slate-early-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla never brought the Tuscan/Spanish tile or French slate Solar Roof styles to production; the product shipped only as a single flat glass tile. In August 2026 Tesla discontinued Solar Roof entirely: tesla.com/solarroof now redirects to solar panels, the product is gone from the Energy menu, and installers were told new tile orders are closed. The styles will not ship. Cancelled, not missed-and-counting.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/21/teslas-solar-roof-is-dead-heres-what-went-wrong/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c381",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#model-y-on-the-roads-in-2019",
   "title": "Model Y hits the roads around 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2017-06-06",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2020-03-13",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 381,
     "date_made": "2017-06-06",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "So we're aiming for that, you know, to hit the roads in 2019 approximately and probably the demand for the Model Y will exceed the demand for the Model 3.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9cT4jvn71A&t=1330s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#model-y-on-the-roads-in-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Model Y production started in January 2020 and first deliveries came on Mar 13 2020. It happened late: first Model Y deliveries came on March 13 2020. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c382",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#three-times-as-many-superchargers-by-end-of-2018",
   "title": "Three times as many Superchargers by end of 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2017-07-28",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 382,
     "date_made": "2017-07-28",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "By the end of next year, there will be three times as many superchargers as there are today.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzT0uNT0ds8&t=597s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#three-times-as-many-superchargers-by-end-of-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reported 1,421 Supercharger stations and 12,002 connectors at the end of 2018, roughly double, not triple, its mid-2017 network (about 6,000 connectors at 900 stations).",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c383",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-30-launches-in-2018",
   "title": "SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2017-09-08",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 383,
     "date_made": "2017-09-08",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.",
     "source": "https://elonmuskarchive.org/video/spacex-2017-company-update",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-30-launches-in-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX flew 21 times in 2018 (20 Falcon 9 plus the Falcon Heavy debut).",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_in_spaceflight"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c384",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-fairing-recovery-within-six-months",
   "title": "SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2018-02-06",
   "first_deadline": "2018-08-06",
   "current_deadline": "2018-08-06",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 384,
     "date_made": "2018-02-06",
     "deadline": "2018-08-06",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I'm pretty sure we'll serve fairing recovery in the next six months.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQkAlaZIs1s&t=1911s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-fairing-recovery-within-six-months"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The first fairing half caught by the recovery ship came on STP-2 on Jun 25 2019.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Test_Program-2"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c385",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-short-hops-first-half-of-2019",
   "title": "Starship short hop flights in the first half of 2019",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "partial",
   "first_said": "2018-03-11",
   "first_deadline": "2019-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2019-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2019-07-25",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 385,
     "date_made": "2018-03-11",
     "deadline": "2019-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "partial",
     "quote": "And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the first half of next year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzlUyrccbos&t=374s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-short-hops-first-half-of-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Starhopper made tethered hops of a few centimetres in early April 2019, but its first free hop (about 20 m) came on Jul 25 2019, after the first-half deadline.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starhopper"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c387",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#39000-model-y-standard-in-2021",
   "title": "$39,000 Standard Range Model Y in 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-03-14",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 387,
     "date_made": "2019-03-14",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And then sometime in 2021 we'll have the sort of standard version which will be have a $39,000 price point.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3s1awGu1-M&t=191s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#39000-model-y-standard-in-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla listed a Standard Range Model Y in January 2021 at $41,990, not $39,000, and pulled it within weeks. No $39,000 Model Y was sold in 2021.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c391",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/",
   "title": "Model Y becomes the world's best-selling vehicle in 2023",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2021-04-26",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-01-26",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2022",
    "2023"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 419,
     "date_made": "2021-04-26",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "more likely than not that in 2022, Model Y is the best-selling car or truck of any kind in the world",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhfj_m0rP2g&t=181s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#model-y-best-selling-vehicle-2022"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 391,
     "date_made": "2021-10-07",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We think the Model Y will be the best selling vehicle of any kind globally. ... I think we've got a good chance of it being the best selling vehicle by revenue next year and then I think quite likely to be the best selling vehicle in just of any kind numerically in 23 and 2023.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5axNR8R7XI8&t=119s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "JATO Dynamics ranked the Model Y the world's best-selling car of 2023, with about 1.23 million registrations.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c393",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-and-booster-every-month-by-end-of-2022",
   "title": "A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-02-10",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 393,
     "date_made": "2022-02-10",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpTLExoMAtQ&t=4448s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-and-booster-every-month-by-end-of-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX had not flown a single integrated Starship by the end of 2022, and production ran far below one ship plus one booster a month.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c394",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-2-million-run-rate-end-of-2022",
   "title": "Tesla exits 2022 at a 2-million-car annual run rate",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-08-04",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 394,
     "date_made": "2022-08-04",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million vehicle run rate by the end of the year. ... I think we might get close to, or we'll get Approximately at the 1.5 million mark and be exiting the year at a 2 million unit run rate.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnXy8c0GOpE&t=129s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-2-million-run-rate-end-of-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced 439,701 vehicles in Q4 2022, an annual rate of about 1.76 million.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc."
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c395",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-beta-worldwide-by-end-of-2022",
   "title": "FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-09-30",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 395,
     "date_made": "2022-09-30",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We're hopeful to be able to, I think from a technical standpoint FSD Beta should be, should be possible to roll out FSD Beta worldwide by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU&t=10349s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-beta-worldwide-by-end-of-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "FSD Beta stayed limited to the US and Canada through 2022. Its first rollout outside North America came in China in February 2025.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c396",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/new-twitter-ceo-by-end-of-2023/",
   "title": "Musk finds a new Twitter CEO around the end of 2023",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2023-02-15",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-05-12",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 396,
     "date_made": "2023-02-15",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "So I don't know, I'm guessing probably towards the end of this year would be good timing to find someone else to run the company because I think it should be in a stable position around, you know, the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmNrlNgXx_U&t=936s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/new-twitter-ceo-by-end-of-2023/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk named Linda Yaccarino as Twitter CEO on May 12 2023, ahead of his end-of-year guess.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Yaccarino"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c399",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-mini-later-in-2024",
   "title": "Starlink Mini launches later in 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-03-18",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-06-18",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 399,
     "date_made": "2024-03-18",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUQzeUaGxBI&t=2091s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-mini-later-in-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Starlink Mini went on sale in June 2024, first in Latin America, then in the US.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c400",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-pad-turnaround-under-24-hours-2024",
   "title": "Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-03-18",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 400,
     "date_made": "2024-03-18",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours pad turnaround by the end of this year.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUQzeUaGxBI&t=932s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-pad-turnaround-under-24-hours-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Starship flew four times in 2024, with weeks to months between flights. Pad turnaround never got near 24 hours.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c401",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-booster-catch-80-90-percent-2024",
   "title": "80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-04-04",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-13",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 401,
     "date_made": "2024-04-04",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which is insane.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI&t=690s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-booster-catch-80-90-percent-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The launch tower's arms caught the Super Heavy booster on Flight 5, Oct 13 2024.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_5"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c404",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#half-of-miles-driven-autonomous-by-2030",
   "title": "Half of all miles driven are autonomous in five years (by 2030)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-03-17",
   "first_deadline": "2030-03-17",
   "current_deadline": "2030-03-17",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 404,
     "date_made": "2025-03-17",
     "deadline": "2030-03-17",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "In five years, probably 50% of all miles driven will be autonomous.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMcmuKTfr54&t=1352s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#half-of-miles-driven-autonomous-by-2030"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 25 2026: Wikipedia Tesla Robotaxi still lists unsupervised commercial service in six US metros (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa) plus safety-driver Bay Area rides — a rounding error of US vehicle-miles, not 50% of all miles driven. Deadline 2030. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Robotaxi"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c406",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-ai-revenue-exceeds-rest-september-2026",
   "title": "SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2026-08-11",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-10-20",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 406,
     "date_made": "2026-08-11",
     "deadline": "2026-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month, and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwNyUTH0asI&t=936s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-ai-revenue-exceeds-rest-september-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX's Q3 2026 results (quarter ended Sep 30, reported Oct 20) showed Super Intelligence (AI) revenue of about $7.6 billion, versus about $5.2 billion from Connectivity (Starlink) and $1.8 billion from Space. AI exceeded the rest of SpaceX ($7.0 billion combined) for that quarter, the first official print covering September. Graded delivered-late: the September crossover is confirmed by the Q3 print, which arrived after the Sep 30 deadline and is a quarterly total rather than a September-only monthly. The quote's separate Q4 'significantly exceed' line remains open.",
    "url": "https://www.theverge.com/science/1014150/spacex-q3-2026-earnings"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c408",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#about-1000-starlink-v3-satellites-by-q2-2027",
   "title": "About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-08-04",
   "first_deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 408,
     "date_made": "2026-08-04",
     "deadline": "2027-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "So we need some critical mass of [V3] satellites, probably at least on the order of about 1,000, but probably that's, you know, I mean, approximately second quarter next year would be, I think, where we'd get to that point.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz7B8fgY06c&t=3500s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#about-1000-starlink-v3-satellites-by-q2-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: independent trackers still count 26 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit, all from Starship Flight 14 on Sep 28 2026 (Jonathan McDowell / Upside Curve compiled Oct 26). Falcon 9 batches since then are not V3. About 1,000 V3s around Q2 2027 remains well ahead. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://upsidecurve.com/trackers/starlink"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c409",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-x-volume-production-q2-2015/#model-x-prototype-unveil-mid-december-2011",
   "title": "Model X prototype unveiled in mid-December 2011",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2011-08-03",
   "first_deadline": "2011-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2011-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2012-02-09",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 409,
     "date_made": "2011-08-03",
     "deadline": "2011-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "the plan is to have a an unveiling of the model X prototype um at the end of this year so some probably in the mid December time frame",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j1ncI1kqb4&t=1505s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-x-volume-production-q2-2015/#model-x-prototype-unveil-mid-december-2011"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled the Model X prototype on February 9, 2012, about two months after the mid-December 2011 target. It happened late: the Model X prototype was unveiled February 9 2012. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_X"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c410",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#first-supercharger-sf-la-jan-feb-2012",
   "title": "First Supercharger between SF and LA by Jan–Feb 2012",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2011-11-02",
   "first_deadline": "2012-02-29",
   "current_deadline": "2012-02-29",
   "resolved_date": "2012-09-24",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 410,
     "date_made": "2011-11-02",
     "deadline": "2012-02-29",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "we're hoping to have the first one installed um between San Francisco and N La probably in the Jan or February time frame",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DupKlGRuQU0&t=1721s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#first-supercharger-sf-la-jan-feb-2012"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled its first six Superchargers in California, on the SF–LA corridor, on September 24, 2012, about seven months after the Jan–Feb target. It happened late: the first Superchargers opened on the SF-LA corridor on September 24 2012. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c411",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#30000-a-year-run-rate-end-of-2013",
   "title": "Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2012-07-25",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 411,
     "date_made": "2012-07-25",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at least at the 30,000 unit",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNyScCJW4yc&t=2094s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#30000-a-year-run-rate-end-of-2013"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla built 6,587 Model S in Q4 2013, roughly a 26,000/year rate and short of the 30,000/year run rate.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-fourth-quarter-2013-shareholder-letter"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c412",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-profitable-q1-2013",
   "title": "Tesla profitable in Q1 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2013-02-20",
   "first_deadline": "2013-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2013-03-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 412,
     "date_made": "2013-02-20",
     "deadline": "2013-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we we we really are have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqLbRUITDl0&t=775s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-profitable-q1-2013"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reported its first quarterly profit for Q1 2013 on May 8, 2013: $11.2M GAAP net income, $15M non-GAAP.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc."
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c413",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-china-deliveries-february-2014/",
   "title": "Model S China deliveries start Feb 2014",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2013-11-05",
   "first_deadline": "2014-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2014-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2014-04-22",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 413,
     "date_made": "2013-11-05",
     "deadline": "2014-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "we'll start delivering cars in the the first quarter. Uh probably either we're aiming for February but it could be March",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCRfj5SCNu8&t=1165s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-china-deliveries-february-2014/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered its first Model S cars in China on April 22, 2014, after Q1 2014 ended. It happened late: first China Model S deliveries came April 22 2014. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c414",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/#model-3-unveiled-around-march-2016",
   "title": "Model 3 shown in approximately March 2016",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2015-05-06",
   "first_deadline": "2016-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2016-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2016-03-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 414,
     "date_made": "2015-05-06",
     "deadline": "2016-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we are hoping to show off the model 3 in approximately March of next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Tw-V1EJJJI&t=3479s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-production-in-about-two-years-2015/#model-3-unveiled-around-march-2016"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled the Model 3 on March 31, 2016, in Hawthorne, CA.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c415",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-gaap-profitable-q4-2016",
   "title": "Tesla GAAP-profitable in Q4 2016",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-02-10",
   "first_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 415,
     "date_made": "2016-02-10",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRzQJLeMqIU&t=254s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/#tesla-gaap-profitable-q4-2016"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reported a Q4 2016 GAAP net loss of about $121M (Feb 22, 2017). Q3 2016 had been GAAP-profitable, but Q4 was not.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2016-financial-results"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c416",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-deliveries-up-50-percent-in-2019",
   "title": "Tesla deliveries about 50% higher in 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2019-01-30",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-12-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 416,
     "date_made": "2019-01-30",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "expecting deliveries just this year to be about fifty percent higher than last year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8OlbfpoT6o&t=212s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-deliveries-up-50-percent-in-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered about 367,500 vehicles in 2019, up roughly 50% from 245,240 in 2018.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c418",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#new-factory-locations-announced-end-of-2022",
   "title": "New Tesla factory locations announced by end of 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2022-01-26",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-03-01",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 418,
     "date_made": "2022-01-26",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "we will uh through 2022 look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year I expect",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMA6myXpfqI&t=555s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/#new-factory-locations-announced-end-of-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla announced no new factory site in 2022. Giga Mexico was announced at Investor Day on March 1, 2023. It happened late: Tesla announced Giga Mexico at Investor Day on March 1 2023. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Mexico"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c420",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/battery-day-probably-april-2020/",
   "title": "Tesla Battery Day probably in April 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-06-11",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-04-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019",
    "Apr 2020"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 462,
     "date_made": "2019-06-11",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "investor day that's hopefully this summer before the end of the year for sure",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va5i42D13cI&t=3623s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/battery-day-probably-april-2020/#battery-investor-day-before-end-of-2019"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 420,
     "date_made": "2020-01-29",
     "deadline": "2020-04-30",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we're going to talk about this in battery day, which is probably April",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTOetiSVJnc&t=3449s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/battery-day-probably-april-2020/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Battery Day was held on September 22, 2020, five months after April.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Battery_Day"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c422",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-400-mile-range-epa-retest/",
   "title": "Model S gets a 400+ mile EPA range on retest",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2020-04-29",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2020-06-15",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 422,
     "date_made": "2020-04-29",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we're extremely confident that we will achieve a 400 mile or greater range with the Model S",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEvXfHHEdNc&t=88s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-400-mile-range-epa-retest/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On June 15, 2020, Tesla announced an EPA-rated 402 miles for the Model S Long Range Plus.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c423",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-1-5-million-cars-in-2021",
   "title": "Tesla makes 1.5 million cars in 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2019-02-19",
   "first_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 423,
     "date_made": "2019-02-19",
     "deadline": "2021-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "what's my guess for 2021 is one and a half million cars for Tesla",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrIeiSB_fB8&t=367s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-1-5-million-cars-in-2021"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced about 930,000 vehicles in 2021 (936,000 delivered), well short of 1.5 million.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c424",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-dragon-on-falcon-9-end-of-2009/#dragon-to-space-station-in-2010",
   "title": "Dragon visits the space station for the first time in 2010",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2009-04-07",
   "first_deadline": "2010-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2010-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2012-05-25",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2010",
    "Jan 2012"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 424,
     "date_made": "2009-04-07",
     "deadline": "2010-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "And then next year we go to the space station for the first time.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CxU98Lc25Y&t=3559s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-dragon-on-falcon-9-end-of-2009/#dragon-to-space-station-in-2010"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 439,
     "date_made": "2011-09-29",
     "deadline": "2012-01-31",
     "change": "goalpost_moved",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "it looks like things will be more like January for the launch of the space station",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrVD3tcVWTY&t=2181s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-dragon-on-falcon-9-end-of-2009/#dragon-iss-launch-january-2012"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Dragon first berthed at the ISS on May 25, 2012 (COTS 2/3 / Dragon C2+), about a year and a half after the 2010 target. The visit happened, just late. Regraded missed → delivered-late on 2026-10-23 (L7: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens).",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_C2%2B"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c427",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-booster-reflown-within-24-hours-2018",
   "title": "A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2017-07-19",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 427,
     "date_made": "2017-07-19",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv5LjA62Uw8&t=79s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-booster-reflown-within-24-hours-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No Falcon booster has flown twice within 24 hours. The record turnaround, set by B1088 between March 12 and March 21, 2025 (NROL-57), is 9 days 3 hours; the prior record was B1080 at ~13.5 days.",
    "url": "https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/03/20/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-reconnaissance-satellites-for-the-nro-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-vandenberg/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c431",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-lands-intact-within-a-year-2015",
   "title": "Falcon 9 first stage lands intact within a year (said Nov 2015)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2015-11-06",
   "first_deadline": "2016-11-06",
   "current_deadline": "2016-11-06",
   "resolved_date": "2015-12-21",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 431,
     "date_made": "2015-11-06",
     "deadline": "2016-11-06",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "I think within the next year we'll be able to land the rocket intact",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsIbGKosY1E&t=2498s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-lands-intact-within-a-year-2015"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "On December 21, 2015, the Falcon 9 first stage on the ORBCOMM-2 flight landed intact at Landing Zone 1, six weeks later.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c432",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-discovers-new-technologies-by-2026",
   "title": "Grok discovers useful new technologies no later than 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2025-07-09",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 432,
     "date_made": "2025-07-09",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I would expect Grock to yeah literally discover new new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbNODZwQQuw&t=768s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-discovers-new-technologies-by-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: x.ai/news since the Grok 4 launch is product releases (Grok 4.7, Voice 3.0, Grok Bot, Partner Network). No official or press receipt that Grok discovered a useful new technology. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c434",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-plaid-production-oct-nov-2020/#model-s-plaid-plus-500-miles-in-a-year",
   "title": "Model S Plaid+ with ~500 miles of range in about a year",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "cancelled",
   "first_said": "2021-02-11",
   "first_deadline": "2022-02-11",
   "current_deadline": "2022-02-11",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 434,
     "date_made": "2021-02-11",
     "deadline": "2022-02-11",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "cancelled",
     "quote": "Plus if you. That's maybe a year from now, that'll be on the order of 500 miles.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbb2rV7Vpnw&t=5306s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-plaid-production-oct-nov-2020/#model-s-plaid-plus-500-miles-in-a-year"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk cancelled the Plaid+ on June 6, 2021, saying the standard Plaid was good enough. No ~500-mile Model S shipped.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c435",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-over-100-billion-revenue-2024/",
   "title": "Tesla does over $100 billion in revenue in 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-08-03",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 435,
     "date_made": "2024-08-03",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "Tesla this year we'll do over 100 billion in revenue",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kbk9BiPhm7o&t=4711s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-over-100-billion-revenue-2024/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reported 2024 revenue of $97.69 billion, under $100 billion.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-releases-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c436",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/half-of-us-new-cars-electric-by-2027/",
   "title": "More than half of new US vehicle production electric within 10 years (by 2027)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2017-07-15",
   "first_deadline": "2027-07-15",
   "current_deadline": "2027-07-15",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 436,
     "date_made": "2017-07-15",
     "deadline": "2027-07-15",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Probably in 10 years, more than a half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeKqlDURpf8&t=820s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/half-of-us-new-cars-electric-by-2027/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: EIA Today in Energy (Oct 19) says battery-electric vehicles were 6% of US new light-duty sales in Q3 2026, down from 10% in Q3 2025, and 6% in the first nine months of 2026. More than half of new US vehicle production electric by July 2027 is not in sight. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68325"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c440",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-weekly-launch-cadence-mid-2019",
   "title": "SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2017-09-08",
   "first_deadline": "2019-07-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-07-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 440,
     "date_made": "2017-09-08",
     "deadline": "2019-07-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days",
     "source": "https://elonmuskarchive.org/video/spacex-2017-company-update",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#spacex-weekly-launch-cadence-mid-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "SpaceX flew 13 launches in all of 2019, about one every four weeks. Weekly cadence came only in 2022.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches_(2010%E2%80%932019)"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c441",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-hopper-flights-in-2019",
   "title": "Starship hopper flights in 2019",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2018-09-17",
   "first_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-07-25",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 441,
     "date_made": "2018-09-17",
     "deadline": "2019-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we still anticipate doing hopper flights next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5EqUKNCGd0&t=3666s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-hopper-flights-in-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Starhopper made its first untethered hop on July 25, 2019, and a 150 m hop on August 27, 2019.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starhopper"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c446",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-30-40-percent-growth-in-2020",
   "title": "Tesla grows 30–40% in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2020-09-22",
   "first_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2020-12-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 446,
     "date_made": "2020-09-22",
     "deadline": "2020-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Probably somewhere between 30 to 40% growth despite a lot of very difficult circumstances",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds&t=6s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-30-percent-vehicle-growth-2025/#tesla-30-40-percent-growth-in-2020"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered 499,550 vehicles in 2020, up about 36% from 367,500 in 2019.",
    "url": "https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c448",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-10-million-cumulative-vehicles-2026/",
   "title": "Tesla passes 10 million cumulative vehicles in 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2025-03-20",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-07-30",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 448,
     "date_made": "2025-03-20",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we will actually have made over 10 million vehicles next year. So we'll pass the 10 million vehicle cumulative.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJysv_Qzkw&t=108s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-10-million-cumulative-vehicles-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced its 10 millionth vehicle, a Model Y, at Fremont during the week of July 30 2026. Tesla announced the global cumulative production milestone on X that day; Elon Musk congratulated the team. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Delivered.",
    "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/07/30/tesla-produces-its-10-millionth-vehicle-at-fremont-factory/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c449",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/megapack-3-production-houston-2026/",
   "title": "Megapack 3 production starts in Houston later in 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2026-04-22",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-08-06",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 449,
     "date_made": "2026-04-22",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we're excited to begin production of Megapack 3 later this year in our new world class factory outside Houston",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO7T5zgRvXM&t=606s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/megapack-3-production-houston-2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla Megapack said Megapack 3 was rolling off the line at the Brookshire, Texas Megafactory on August 6 2026 — Tesla's Houston-area plant. Electrek reported the production start the same day. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Delivered.",
    "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/08/06/tesla-megapack-3-production-starts-texas/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c453",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#model-y-unveil-around-march-2019",
   "title": "Model Y unveiled approximately March 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2018-06-05",
   "first_deadline": "2019-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2019-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-03-14",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 453,
     "date_made": "2018-06-05",
     "deadline": "2019-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "We're aiming to unveil the Model Y approximately March next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep0Ns5EeGu4&t=1s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/#model-y-unveil-around-march-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled the Model Y on March 14, 2019, in Hawthorne, CA.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c454",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#supercharger-v3-production-end-of-2018",
   "title": "Supercharger V3 in production around end of 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2018-06-05",
   "first_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-03-06",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 454,
     "date_made": "2018-06-05",
     "deadline": "2018-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "the next generation Supercharger. That is it's mostly finished in design and will go into production hopefully around the end of this year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep0Ns5EeGu4&t=1s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/#supercharger-v3-production-end-of-2018"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla unveiled the 250 kW V3 Supercharger on March 6, 2019, with the first public site opening that April. It happened late: Tesla unveiled the V3 Supercharger on March 6 2019, first public site that April. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c455",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-fleet-7-million-by-end-of-2024/",
   "title": "Over 7 million Teslas by end of 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2024-06-13",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-22",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 455,
     "date_made": "2024-06-13",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "it's going to be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year. Over 7 million vehicles.",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQhnxPu67G4&t=3290s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-fleet-7-million-by-end-of-2024/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla produced its 7 millionth vehicle (a Model Y at Fremont) on October 22, 2024, ahead of the end-of-year target.",
    "url": "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-celebrates-7-million-vehicles-produced/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c460",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#blindsight-first-human-implant-2025",
   "title": "First Blindsight human implant later in 2025",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-03-30",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 460,
     "date_made": "2025-03-30",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we're hoping later this year to do our first device implant for human enabling someone who is completely blind to see",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhIIS_9ZtDE&t=9442s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/#blindsight-first-human-implant-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No human Blindsight implant happened in 2025. On Jan 28–29, 2026, Musk posted that Neuralink was 'ready to do our first Blindsight' implant pending regulatory approval, and as of Oct 2026 none has been reported.",
    "url": "https://www.mobihealthnews.com/news/elon-musk-announces-neuralinks-first-human-implant-blindsight-coming-year"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c461",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#tesla-pickup-unveil-summer-2019",
   "title": "Tesla pickup truck unveiled in summer 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2019-06-11",
   "first_deadline": "2019-09-22",
   "current_deadline": "2019-09-22",
   "resolved_date": "2019-11-21",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 461,
     "date_made": "2019-06-11",
     "deadline": "2019-09-22",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "the pickup truck which we hope to unveil hopefully this summer",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va5i42D13cI&t=3491s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/#tesla-pickup-unveil-summer-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The Cybertruck was unveiled on November 21, 2019, two months after summer ended. It happened late: the Cybertruck was unveiled on November 21 2019. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybertruck"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c463",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-five-or-six-more-flights-in-2024",
   "title": "Five or six more Starship flights in 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2024-03-25",
   "first_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 463,
     "date_made": "2024-03-25",
     "deadline": "2024-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akXMYvKjUxM&t=1601s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-five-or-six-more-flights-in-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "After March 25, 2024 Starship flew three more times that year (Flights 4, 5 and 6 in June, October and November), not five or six.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c465",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/#starships-landing-on-moon-within-three-years-2024",
   "title": "Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2024-03-25",
   "first_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 465,
     "date_made": "2024-03-25",
     "deadline": "2027-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'd be surprised if it's, if it's longer than about three years to be landing starships on the moon",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akXMYvKjUxM&t=1601s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/#starships-landing-on-moon-within-three-years-2024"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: no Starship has landed on the Moon. NASA (Oct 23) now targets a crewed lunar landing in 2028 (Artemis IV), with Artemis III in 2027 as an Earth-orbit docking demo with a Starship test article — not a lunar landing. Musk's March 2027 window has not passed. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/nasa-partners-accelerate-lander-development-for-2028-moon-missions/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c466",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-few-million-cars-a-year-by-2025",
   "title": "Tesla making a few million cars a year within 10 years (by 2025)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2015-01-13",
   "first_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 466,
     "date_made": "2015-01-13",
     "deadline": "2025-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years a year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea9LoOnMTiE&t=540s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-few-million-cars-a-year-by-2025"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla delivered about 1.64 million vehicles in 2025 (down from 1.79 million in 2024), well short of a few million a year.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc."
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c467",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-repays-doe-loan-in-half-the-time-2013/",
   "title": "Tesla cuts the repayment time on its DOE loan in half",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2013-02-26",
   "first_deadline": "2018-02-26",
   "current_deadline": "2018-02-26",
   "resolved_date": "2013-05-22",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 467,
     "date_made": "2013-02-26",
     "deadline": "2018-02-26",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "Tesla is going to cut the payment time in half of the loan",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMPRcBN4K20&t=1981s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-repays-doe-loan-in-half-the-time-2013/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla repaid its $465 million Department of Energy loan in full on May 22, 2013, nine years before it was due in 2022.",
    "url": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-repays-department-energy-loan-nine-years-early"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c468",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-largest-electricity-source-by-2050/",
   "title": "Solar is the single largest source of electricity by mid-century",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2015-10-02",
   "first_deadline": "2050-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2050-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 468,
     "date_made": "2015-10-02",
     "deadline": "2050-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "solar power will be the single largest source of electricity generation by the midpoint of the century",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpcJ3jX-2DA&t=0s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-largest-electricity-source-by-2050/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: Ember's April 2026 Global Electricity Review still has 2025 solar at 2,778 TWh versus coal at 10,476 TWh, so solar is not yet the largest source. Deadline is 2050. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c469",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/oil-approaches-200-dollars-by-2012/",
   "title": "Oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2010-2012",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2009-08-11",
   "first_deadline": "2012-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2012-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 469,
     "date_made": "2009-08-11",
     "deadline": "2012-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we'll see it sort of approach $200 and beyond by 2010, 1112, somewhere in there",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktkV0N0Oask&t=1071s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/oil-approaches-200-dollars-by-2012/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Oil never came near $200 in 2010-2012. Brent peaked at about $127 a barrel in April 2011, below the 2008 record of about $147.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c470",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/doge-trillion-dollar-deficit-reduction-fy2026/",
   "title": "DOGE achieves a $1 trillion deficit reduction in fiscal year 2026",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2025-02-26",
   "first_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "current_deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 470,
     "date_made": "2025-02-26",
     "deadline": "2026-09-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we do need to move quickly if we are to achieve a trillion dollar deficit reduction in financial year 2026. It requires saving $4 billion per day, every day from now through the end of September. But we can do it, and we will do it",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMpL4Hze__4&t=558s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/doge-trillion-dollar-deficit-reduction-fy2026/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The FY2026 federal deficit was about $2.0 trillion, $218 billion larger than FY2025, according to CBO's October 8, 2026 estimate.",
    "url": "https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/cbo-estimates-20-trillion-deficit-fiscal-year-2026"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c472",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-heavy-launch-end-of-june-2019",
   "title": "Falcon Heavy launches at the end of June 2019",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2019-06-13",
   "first_deadline": "2019-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2019-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2019-06-25",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 472,
     "date_made": "2019-06-13",
     "deadline": "2019-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "the next thing is probably the Falcon Heavy launch at the end of this month",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVW50KRaBd8&t=2572s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-heavy-launch-end-of-june-2019"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Falcon Heavy flew the STP-2 mission on June 25, 2019, its third flight and first for the US Air Force.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Test_Program_Flight_2"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c473",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-weekly-cadence-in-2027",
   "title": "Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence in 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-29",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2027"
   ],
   "statements": 2,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 473,
     "date_made": "2026-09-29",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "we expect starship to ultimately next year, I think probably reach a weekly or twice weekly cadence",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=388P7IFSpwE&t=983s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-weekly-cadence-in-2027"
    },
    {
     "statement_id": 508,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "restated",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We expect Starship to fly weekly at some point in the first half of next year and then second half of next year twice weekly or maybe even more frequently than that by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-weekly-h1-twice-weekly-h2-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c474",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-1000-km-range-by-2017/",
   "title": "A Tesla breaks 1,000 km of range by 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2015-09-15",
   "first_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 474,
     "date_made": "2015-09-15",
     "deadline": "2017-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "probably we could break a thousand kilometers within a year or two",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl5vLC3Xlgc&t=384s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-1000-km-range-by-2017/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "No Tesla offered anything close to 1,000 km (621 mi) of range by 2017. The longest-range Model S 100D was rated about 335 mi (539 km) EPA in 2017, and no production Tesla has reached 1,000 km since.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c475",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-25-percent-gross-margin-end-of-2013/",
   "title": "Tesla reaches at least 25% gross margin by the end of 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2013-04-02",
   "first_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2013-12-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 475,
     "date_made": "2013-04-02",
     "deadline": "2013-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "we would achieve at least a 25% gross margin by the end of the year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS2BCL6SWYI&t=305s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-25-percent-gross-margin-end-of-2013/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reported Q4 2013 automotive gross margin of 25.2% non-GAAP (25.8% GAAP) with no ZEV credit sales, meeting the 25% target. (Achieved in Q4 2013 and reported Feb 19, 2014.)",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312514058778/d676319dex991.htm"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c476",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#cybercab-commercial-in-california-mid-2027",
   "title": "Cybercab operating commercially in California by mid-2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-09-25",
   "first_deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 476,
     "date_made": "2026-09-25",
     "deadline": "2027-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Probably by middle of next year it will be operating commercially in California",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34-5wOGmCKc&t=198s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/#cybercab-commercial-in-california-mid-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: California DMV list dated Oct 21 2026 still has Tesla Robotaxi LLC on testing-with-a-driver only; Tesla is absent from driverless-testing and deployment lists. Cybercab paid rides remain Austin-only. Mid-2027 California commercial deadline has not passed. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c479",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-headcount-higher-a-year-after-june-2022/",
   "title": "Tesla headcount higher a year after the June 2022 salaried cut",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2022-06-21",
   "first_deadline": "2023-06-21",
   "current_deadline": "2023-06-21",
   "resolved_date": "2023-01-31",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 479,
     "date_made": "2022-06-21",
     "deadline": "2023-06-21",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "a year from now, I think our headcount will be higher in both Salaried and obviously in hourly",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl8S-T33mbs&t=766s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-headcount-higher-a-year-after-june-2022/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Tesla reported 127,855 employees at the end of 2022, up from 99,290 a year earlier, and 140,473 at the end of 2023, so headcount kept rising after the mid-2022 salaried trim.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001318605&type=10-K"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c480",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-launch-from-39a-and-ocean-platform-end-2022",
   "title": "Starship launch capability at Cape 39A and an ocean platform by end of 2022",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-02-10",
   "first_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 480,
     "date_made": "2022-02-10",
     "deadline": "2022-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the ocean platforms as well",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpTLExoMAtQ&t=5667s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-launch-from-39a-and-ocean-platform-end-2022"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Neither existed by the end of 2022. Starship's first launch of any kind was from Starbase in April 2023, the 39A Starship pad was still under construction in 2026, and the converted oil rigs (Phobos and Deimos) were sold off in 2024 without ever launching.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starbase"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c482",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#eelv-certification-in-2014",
   "title": "Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 2014",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2014-03-05",
   "first_deadline": "2014-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2014-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2015-05-26",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 482,
     "date_made": "2014-03-05",
     "deadline": "2014-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "completing that certification this year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upnx_DD9zSQ&t=3016s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#eelv-certification-in-2014"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The US Air Force certified Falcon 9 for national security launches on May 26, 2015, after SpaceX sued over the block-buy contract. It happened late: the Air Force certified Falcon 9 on May 26 2015. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c483",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#ai-drives-90-percent-of-distance-by-2036",
   "title": "AI drives 90% of all distance driven within about 10 years (by 2036)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-05-18",
   "first_deadline": "2036-05-31",
   "current_deadline": "2036-05-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 483,
     "date_made": "2026-05-18",
     "deadline": "2036-05-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self driving car",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgsUPJBNZcc&t=504s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#ai-drives-90-percent-of-distance-by-2036"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Fetched Oct 26 2026: Tesla Q3 2026 Update reports unsupervised Robotaxi miles growing eightfold quarter over quarter from a small Austin Cybercab/Robotaxi base, while FSD remains Supervised on owner cars. AI is not driving 90% of distance. Deadline 2036. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2026-Update.pdf"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c484",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#hardware-2-autopilot-parity-december-2016",
   "title": "Autopilot Hardware 2 reaches feature parity with Hardware 1 in December 2016",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2016-10-19",
   "first_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2016-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 484,
     "date_made": "2016-10-19",
     "deadline": "2016-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "we expect to reach feature parity following field validation of Hardware 2, probably in December",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vjGEEF_p5E&t=308s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#hardware-2-autopilot-parity-december-2016"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "HW2 cars got their first Autosteer and adaptive cruise in January 2017. Higher-speed Autosteer and Summon came with v8.1 in March 2017, and near parity (Autopark, speed limits lifted) arrived through May–June 2017.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/29/teslas-8-1-software-update-brings-autopilot-2-0-cars-up-to-speed/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c485",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-cash-flow-break-even-2023/",
   "title": "Twitter roughly cash-flow break-even in 2023",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "missed",
   "first_said": "2022-12-21",
   "first_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 485,
     "date_made": "2022-12-21",
     "deadline": "2023-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "missed",
     "quote": "I think we will be about, hopefully, sort of roughly cash flow break even. That's what I expect for next year",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkNkSQ42jg4&t=2152s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-cash-flow-break-even-2023/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "In July 2023, more than halfway through the year, Musk said Twitter's cash flow was still negative because of a ~50% drop in advertising revenue and a heavy debt load. No break-even for 2023 was reported.",
    "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-says-twitters-cash-flow-still-negative-ad-revenue-drops-2023-07-15/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c486",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/stranded-astronauts-back-in-about-four-weeks-2025/",
   "title": "SpaceX brings the two long-stay ISS astronauts home in about four weeks",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered",
   "first_said": "2025-02-18",
   "first_deadline": "2025-03-18",
   "current_deadline": "2025-03-18",
   "resolved_date": "2025-03-18",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 486,
     "date_made": "2025-02-18",
     "deadline": "2025-03-18",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered",
     "quote": "I think it's about about four weeks to bring them back",
     "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCXN2CFX1uc&t=944s",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/stranded-astronauts-back-in-about-four-weeks-2025/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Crew-9's Dragon splashed down on March 18, 2025, bringing Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore home after their extended stay, exactly four weeks after the interview.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Crew-9"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c487",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#mars-transport-architecture-presented-end-of-2015",
   "title": "Mars transport architecture presented around the end of 2015",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2015-01-06",
   "first_deadline": "2015-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2015-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2016-09-27",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 487,
     "date_made": "2015-01-06",
     "deadline": "2015-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "The Mars transport system will be a completely new architecture. Am hoping to present that towards the end of this year",
     "source": "https://www.reddit.com/comments/2rgsan/_/cnfq5qf/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/#mars-transport-architecture-presented-end-of-2015"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Musk first presented the Mars architecture (the Interplanetary Transport System) at the IAC in Guadalajara on September 27, 2016, about nine months after the end of 2015. It happened late: Musk presented the Mars architecture at IAC on September 27 2016. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Interplanetary_Transport_System"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c489",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-block-5-first-flight-mid-2017",
   "title": "Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "first_said": "2016-10-23",
   "first_deadline": "2017-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2017-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2018-05-11",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 489,
     "date_made": "2016-10-23",
     "deadline": "2017-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "delivered-late",
     "quote": "Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months",
     "source": "https://www.reddit.com/comments/590wi9/_/d94v8p8/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-next-month-jan-2018/#falcon-9-block-5-first-flight-mid-2017"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "The first Falcon 9 Block 5 launched Bangabandhu-1 on May 11, 2018, about 18 months after the AMA. It happened late: the first Falcon 9 Block 5 flew on May 11 2018. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens.",
    "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_Block_5"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c493",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#solo-devs-ship-ai-games-no-studio-2027",
   "title": "AI lets solo devs ship studio-quality games by 2027",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-13",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 493,
     "date_made": "2026-10-13",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Next year",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2110225499205390759",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#solo-devs-ship-ai-games-no-studio-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://x.com/georgevibing/status/2109966141011394804"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c494",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/china-making-lot-of-ram-2028/",
   "title": "China will be making a lot of RAM in 2028",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-14",
   "first_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 494,
     "date_made": "2026-10-14",
     "deadline": "2028-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2110566143983223006",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/china-making-lot-of-ram-2028/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2028.",
    "url": "https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2110550475632460251"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c495",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-over-100-trillion-within-10-years",
   "title": "SpaceX valuation exceeds $100 trillion within 10 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-14",
   "first_deadline": "2036-10-14",
   "current_deadline": "2036-10-14",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 495,
     "date_made": "2026-10-14",
     "deadline": "2036-10-14",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2110564479742120079",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-over-100-trillion-within-10-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until October 14, 2036 (under 10 years from the claim).",
    "url": "https://x.com/SPCX100T/status/2110210270182396112"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c498",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ram-shortage-through-2027/",
   "title": "Memory chip shortage lasts through 2027, may ease in 2028",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-16",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 498,
     "date_made": "2026-10-16",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "For sure in 2027, but if China ramps LP5 & LP6 as fast as they’ve ramped other manufactured products, then 2028 will be a different story. HBM is a tougher hill to climb, however.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2111136408484069470",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ram-shortage-through-2027/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2111129780271636574"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c499",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/#us-output-50-percent-growth-by-2030",
   "title": "US economic output grows more than 50% by 2030 thanks to AI",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-17",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 499,
     "date_made": "2026-10-17",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "If this is rephrased as “useful output of US”, then >50% growth by 2030 due to SI is extremely likely, unless there is a major war",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2111610981046452541",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/#us-output-50-percent-growth-by-2030"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2030.",
    "url": "https://x.com/Kalshi/status/2111500047875481946"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c500",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-shares-to-every-kid-in-america/",
   "title": "Elon gives one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America in 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-19",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 500,
     "date_made": "2026-10-19",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2112089556615123114",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-shares-to-every-kid-in-america/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2112089556615123114"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c501",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-13-gigawatts-ai-compute-end-2027/",
   "title": "SpaceX brings about 13 GW of AI compute online by the end of 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-20",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 501,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That would be in addition to the roughly 3 gigawatts, maybe 2 and a half to 3 gigawatts that we'll have online by the end of this year. So, I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-13-gigawatts-ai-compute-end-2027/"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027. Musk said about 2.5-3 GW will be online by the end of 2026.",
    "url": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c502",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-13-gigawatts-ai-compute-end-2027/#spacex-200k-gb300-per-month-rest-of-2026",
   "title": "SpaceX brings about 200,000 GB300s online every month for the rest of 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-20",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 502,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2026-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We're tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for every month [that remains] this year and continuing that pace next year with next year being primarily Rubin compute.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-13-gigawatts-ai-compute-end-2027/#spacex-200k-gb300-per-month-rest-of-2026"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2026.",
    "url": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c503",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-13-gigawatts-ai-compute-end-2027/#spacex-440k-vera-rubin-training-cluster-q2-2027",
   "title": "SpaceX has a 440,000 Vera Rubin training cluster online by the end of Q2 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-20",
   "first_deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "current_deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 503,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2027-06-30",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We're also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,000 Vera Rubin computers deployed for optimal training.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-13-gigawatts-ai-compute-end-2027/#spacex-440k-vera-rubin-training-cluster-q2-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until June 30, 2027.",
    "url": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c504",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-arr-500-billion-to-1-trillion-end-2027",
   "title": "SpaceX reaches $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-20",
   "first_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 504,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2027-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "In a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of '27 is somewhere between $500 billion and a trillion.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/#spacex-arr-500-billion-to-1-trillion-end-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2027.",
    "url": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c505",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-100x-bandwidth-within-three-years",
   "title": "Starlink has about 100 times today's bandwidth within about three years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-20",
   "first_deadline": "2029-10-20",
   "current_deadline": "2029-10-20",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 505,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2029-10-20",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "What I expect over time is not in the distant future, probably within three years, is that we will have about 100 times the bandwidth of the current Starlink constellation.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-100x-bandwidth-within-three-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until about October 2029.",
    "url": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c506",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-bot-enterprise-wide-deployment-few-weeks",
   "title": "Grok Bot reaches wide enterprise deployment within a few weeks",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-20",
   "first_deadline": "2026-11-17",
   "current_deadline": "2026-11-17",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 506,
     "date_made": "2026-10-20",
     "deadline": "2026-11-17",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers for GrokBot.",
     "source": "https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2112653610953887818",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-bot-enterprise-wide-deployment-few-weeks"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until about November 17, 2026. Grok Bot for Enterprise was listed on x.ai as of Sep 3 (early/trusted deployment, which the Oct 20 quote already acknowledged). Fetched Oct 25 2026: x.ai/news latest Grok Bot posts are incident-sweep (Oct 20) and the Partner Network (Oct 22); no receipt of wide enterprise deployment beyond trusted customers. Status stays pending.",
    "url": "https://x.ai/news"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c513",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-eu-wide-approval-by-q1-2027",
   "title": "EU-wide FSD approval by the end of Q1 2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-21",
   "first_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "current_deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 513,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2027-03-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We are now approved in many countries in Europe, and we are hoping for an EU-wide approval. It is hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/#fsd-eu-wide-approval-by-q1-2027"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of Q1 2027.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c514",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-5-million-vehicles-a-year-2030",
   "title": "Tesla makes 5 million vehicles a year by about 2030",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-21",
   "first_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "current_deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 514,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2030-12-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "We have also been laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. We are, I think, aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030. I think we have got a good shot of achieving that goal.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/#tesla-5-million-vehicles-a-year-2030"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until the end of 2030.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c515",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-unscripted-video-month-or-two",
   "title": "Tesla shows Optimus doing unscripted tasks on video within a month or two",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-21",
   "first_deadline": "2026-12-21",
   "current_deadline": "2026-12-21",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 515,
     "date_made": "2026-10-21",
     "deadline": "2026-12-21",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "So I want to release a video where it is Optimus doing things that are not pre-programmed. I think that is maybe a month or 2 for that to have a demo that you can believe what you see type of thing.",
     "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/#optimus-unscripted-video-month-or-two"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until Dec 21, 2026.",
    "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/transcripts/712902-q3-2026/"
   }
  },
  {
   "claim_id": "c516",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-mobile-us-network-2-or-3-years",
   "title": "Starlink Mobile's US carrier network is built out in 2 or 3 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "status": "pending",
   "first_said": "2026-10-26",
   "first_deadline": "2029-10-31",
   "current_deadline": "2029-10-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "statements": 1,
   "timeline": [
    {
     "statement_id": 516,
     "date_made": "2026-10-26",
     "deadline": "2029-10-31",
     "change": "first",
     "status": "pending",
     "quote": "Will take 2 or 3 years",
     "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114774224015663608",
     "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/#starlink-mobile-us-network-2-or-3-years"
    }
   ],
   "resolution": {
    "summary": "Pending until Oct 31, 2029.",
    "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114774224015663608"
   }
  }
 ],
 "statements": 463,
 "count": 346
}