{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — attribution required: link to https://twoweeks.lol",
 "retrieved": "2026-07-04",
 "count": 182,
 "predictions": [
  {
   "id": 2,
   "slug": "90-autopilot-capable-by-2015",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/90-autopilot-capable-by-2015/",
   "title": "90% autopilot capable by 2015",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto.",
   "date_made": "2014-10-01",
   "deadline": "2015-10-01",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJmhpgW0Dmc"
  },
  {
   "id": 3,
   "slug": "cross-country-autonomous-drive",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cross-country-autonomous-drive/",
   "title": "LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year.",
   "date_made": "2016-10-19",
   "deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-01-22",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vjGEEF_p5E"
  },
  {
   "id": 4,
   "slug": "fsd-feature-complete",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-feature-complete/",
   "title": "FSD ‘feature complete’",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving feature this year.",
   "date_made": "2019-10-23",
   "deadline": "2020-06-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2019"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/10/24/tesla-inc-tsla-q3-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx"
  },
  {
   "id": 5,
   "slug": "million-robotaxis",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/million-robotaxis/",
   "title": "1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over the air update; that's all it takes.",
   "date_made": "2019-04-22",
   "deadline": "2020-04-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE"
  },
  {
   "id": 6,
   "slug": "autonomous-robotaxis",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/autonomous-robotaxis/",
   "title": "Autonomous robotaxis in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere.",
   "date_made": "2019-04-22",
   "deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE"
  },
  {
   "id": 7,
   "slug": "no-steering-wheel-cars",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/no-steering-wheel-cars/",
   "title": "Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.",
   "date_made": "2019-04-22",
   "deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-23",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE"
  },
  {
   "id": 8,
   "slug": "level-5-autonomy-complete-by-end",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/level-5-autonomy-complete-by-end/",
   "title": "Level 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.",
   "date_made": "2020-07-09",
   "deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdpZUp4I-H8"
  },
  {
   "id": 9,
   "slug": "robotaxi-functionality-in-2020",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-functionality-in-2020/",
   "title": "Robotaxi functionality in 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.",
   "date_made": "2020-04-12",
   "deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1249210220200550405"
  },
  {
   "id": 10,
   "slug": "fsd-reliable-enough-for-no-attention",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-reliable-enough-for-no-attention/",
   "title": "FSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available until the end of next year.",
   "date_made": "2019-10-23",
   "deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/10/24/tesla-inc-tsla-q3-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx"
  },
  {
   "id": 11,
   "slug": "fsd-price-increase",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-price-increase/",
   "title": "FSD price will keep increasing",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. At that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.",
   "date_made": "2020-05-18",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1262530589506273280"
  },
  {
   "id": 12,
   "slug": "robotaxi-launch-austin",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-launch-austin/",
   "title": "Robotaxi launch in Austin June 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Tentatively, June 22.",
   "date_made": "2025-06-11",
   "deadline": "2025-06-22",
   "resolved_date": "2026-01-22",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932591896939147494"
  },
  {
   "id": 13,
   "slug": "robotaxis-metro-areas",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxis-metro-areas/",
   "title": "500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-31",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6_VfR-CyuM"
  },
  {
   "id": 14,
   "slug": "robotaxis-in-half-of-us-population",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxis-in-half-of-us-population/",
   "title": "Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.",
   "date_made": "2025-07-23",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 16,
   "slug": "owner-cars-added-to-robotaxi-network",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/owner-cars-added-to-robotaxi-network/",
   "title": "Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla fleet.",
   "date_made": "2025-07-23",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 18,
   "slug": "cybertruck-starting-at-39-900",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-starting-at-39-900/",
   "title": "Cybertruck starting at $39,900",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "Starting price of $39,900.",
   "date_made": "2019-11-21",
   "deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=464puoD09dM"
  },
  {
   "id": 19,
   "slug": "cybertruck-volume-production",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/",
   "title": "Cybertruck volume production in 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.",
   "date_made": "2021-01-27",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2023-11-30",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2022",
    "2023",
    "late 2023"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 20,
   "slug": "cybertruck-250-000-units-year-by",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-250-000-units-year-by/",
   "title": "Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.",
   "date_made": "2023-10-01",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/10/18/tesla-tsla-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 21,
   "slug": "tesla-semi-production",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-production/",
   "title": "Tesla Semi production in 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.",
   "date_made": "2017-11-16",
   "deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-12-01",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g&t=1487s"
  },
  {
   "id": 22,
   "slug": "tesla-semi-volume-production-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-volume-production-2024/",
   "title": "Tesla Semi volume production 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.",
   "date_made": "2022-10-19",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-29",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2024",
    "2026"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/10/20/tesla-tsla-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 24,
   "slug": "tesla-roadster-production",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-roadster-production/",
   "title": "Tesla Roadster enters production",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "We expected this to be available in 2020.",
   "date_made": "2017-11-16",
   "deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 7,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "2022",
    "2023",
    "2024",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2027",
    "2028"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g&t=2009s"
  },
  {
   "id": 31,
   "slug": "year-of-the-solar-roof-2019",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/year-of-the-solar-roof-2019/",
   "title": "Year of the solar roof 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Energy",
   "quote": "This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.",
   "date_made": "2019-03-14",
   "deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb_Wn6K0uVs"
  },
  {
   "id": 32,
   "slug": "500-000-cars-in-2019",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/500-000-cars-in-2019/",
   "title": "500,000 cars in 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019",
   "date_made": "2019-02-20",
   "deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1098013283372589056"
  },
  {
   "id": 33,
   "slug": "tesla-20-million-cars",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-20-million-cars/",
   "title": "20 million cars per year by 2030",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent execution.",
   "date_made": "2020-09-22",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1310486616075579393"
  },
  {
   "id": 34,
   "slug": "uncrewed-mars-mission",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/uncrewed-mars-mission/",
   "title": "Uncrewed Mars landing 2018",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details to come",
   "date_made": "2016-04-27",
   "deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/725364699303301120"
  },
  {
   "id": 35,
   "slug": "humans-on-mars",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/",
   "title": "Humans on Mars",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.",
   "date_made": "2016-06-02",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2024",
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4"
  },
  {
   "id": 39,
   "slug": "humans-on-mars-2029-possibly-2031",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars-2029-possibly-2031/",
   "title": "Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.",
   "date_made": "2025-03-15",
   "deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2028",
    "2029",
    "2031"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1900774290682683612"
  },
  {
   "id": 40,
   "slug": "starship-reaches-orbit",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-reaches-orbit/",
   "title": "Starship reaches orbit",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.",
   "date_made": "2019-09-28",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-03-14",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "2022"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOpMrVnjYeY"
  },
  {
   "id": 42,
   "slug": "neuralink-human-trials",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/neuralink-human-trials/",
   "title": "First human Neuralink implant",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Human Trials",
   "quote": "We hope to have this aspirationally in a human patient before the end of next year.",
   "date_made": "2019-07-16",
   "deadline": "2023-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2024-01-28",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 2,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2020",
    "2022",
    "2023"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA77zsJ31nA"
  },
  {
   "id": 46,
   "slug": "quadriplegics-control-computers-faster-than-people",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/quadriplegics-control-computers-faster-than-people/",
   "title": "Quadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Capabilities",
   "quote": "To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.",
   "date_made": "2022-11-30",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YreDYmXTYi4"
  },
  {
   "id": 48,
   "slug": "thousand-optimus-factories",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousand-optimus-factories/",
   "title": "1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.",
   "date_made": "2024-06-13",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=remZ1KMR_Z4"
  },
  {
   "id": 49,
   "slug": "5-000-optimus-robots-in-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/5-000-optimus-robots-in-2025/",
   "title": "5,000 Optimus robots in 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.",
   "date_made": "2025-01-29",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 50,
   "slug": "optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-high-volume-external-production-2026/",
   "title": "Optimus high-volume external production 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside customers. That will be a production Version 2 of Optimus.",
   "date_made": "2024-07-01",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/07/24/tesla-tsla-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 51,
   "slug": "optimus-20-30k-price-point",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-20-30k-price-point/",
   "title": "Optimus $20-30k price point",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.",
   "date_made": "2024-10-10",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs"
  },
  {
   "id": 52,
   "slug": "optimus-1-million-units-year-in",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-1-million-units-year-in/",
   "title": "Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.",
   "date_made": "2024-10-01",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/live/pSFvOUswFwA"
  },
  {
   "id": 53,
   "slug": "80-of-tesla-value-will-be",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/80-of-tesla-value-will-be/",
   "title": "80% of Tesla value will be Optimus",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus.",
   "date_made": "2025-09-01",
   "deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1962618811141812475"
  },
  {
   "id": 55,
   "slug": "global-starlink-coverage-by-end-of",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/global-starlink-coverage-by-end-of/",
   "title": "Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starlink",
   "quote": "Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.",
   "date_made": "2021-02-22",
   "deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-12-01",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1363774017606348802"
  },
  {
   "id": 57,
   "slug": "cybertruck-boat",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-boat/",
   "title": "Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren't too choppy",
   "date_made": "2022-09-29",
   "deadline": "2023-11-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "disputed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1575508498430820352"
  },
  {
   "id": 58,
   "slug": "fsd-supervised-safer-than-human-drivers",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-supervised-safer-than-human-drivers/",
   "title": "FSD supervised safer than human drivers",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.",
   "date_made": "2023-11-23",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "disputed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1727484899374899687"
  },
  {
   "id": 60,
   "slug": "model-3-5-000-week-by",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-5-000-week-by/",
   "title": "Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec",
   "date_made": "2017-07-03",
   "deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2018-07-01",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832"
  },
  {
   "id": 62,
   "slug": "hw3-sufficient-for-fsd",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/hw3-sufficient-for-fsd/",
   "title": "HW3 sufficient for FSD",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do is improve the software.",
   "date_made": "2019-04-22",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE"
  },
  {
   "id": 65,
   "slug": "la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-sf-tunnel-travel-time-30/",
   "title": "LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)",
   "company": "Boring Company",
   "topic": "Tunnels & Transport",
   "category": "Transport",
   "quote": "The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.",
   "date_made": "2013-08-12",
   "deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "http://web.archive.org/web/20140123014155/http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/hyperloop_alpha3.pdf"
  },
  {
   "id": 67,
   "slug": "falcon-heavy-launch-2013",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-launch-2013/",
   "title": "Falcon Heavy launch 2013",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Falcon Heavy",
   "quote": "We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch sometime in 2013.",
   "date_made": "2011-04-05",
   "deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2018-02-06",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtoADdSry6g"
  },
  {
   "id": 68,
   "slug": "robotaxi-owner-income",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-owner-income/",
   "title": "Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.",
   "date_made": "2019-04-22",
   "deadline": "2020-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE"
  },
  {
   "id": 72,
   "slug": "restore-full-body-functionality",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/restore-full-body-functionality/",
   "title": "Restore full body functionality",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Capabilities",
   "quote": "We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.",
   "date_made": "2022-11-30",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YreDYmXTYi4"
  },
  {
   "id": 73,
   "slug": "superhuman-abilities-via-neuralink",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/superhuman-abilities-via-neuralink/",
   "title": "Superhuman abilities via Neuralink",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Capabilities",
   "quote": "If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolutely provide superhuman abilities via Neuralink in the future.",
   "date_made": "2025-04-03",
   "deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJysv_Qzkw&t=2443s"
  },
  {
   "id": 74,
   "slug": "fsd-wide-release-nov-2022",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-wide-release-nov-2022/",
   "title": "FSD Beta wide release (Nov 2022)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go to wide beta for all full self-driving customers in North America this year.",
   "date_made": "2022-11-01",
   "deadline": "2022-11-30",
   "resolved_date": "2022-11-24",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2QSBdFfnRI"
  },
  {
   "id": 75,
   "slug": "cybertruck-bulletproof",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-bulletproof/",
   "title": "Cybertruck bulletproof",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.",
   "date_made": "2019-11-21",
   "deadline": "2023-11-30",
   "resolved_date": "2023-11-30",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=464puoD09dM"
  },
  {
   "id": 76,
   "slug": "cybertruck-shatterproof-glass",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-shatterproof-glass/",
   "title": "Cybertruck shatterproof glass",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't break.",
   "date_made": "2019-11-21",
   "deadline": "2019-11-21",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.rev.com/transcripts/tesla-cybertruck-event-transcript-elon-musk-unveils-cybertruck"
  },
  {
   "id": 77,
   "slug": "tesla-network-sharing",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-network-sharing/",
   "title": "Tesla Network car sharing before robotaxi",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators.",
   "date_made": "2020-01-29",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/01/30/tesla-inc-tsla-q4-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx"
  },
  {
   "id": 78,
   "slug": "1-million-people-on-mars",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/1-million-people-on-mars/",
   "title": "1 million people on Mars",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could only go every two years.",
   "date_made": "2016-09-27",
   "deadline": "2060-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7Uyfqi_TE8"
  },
  {
   "id": 79,
   "slug": "self-sustaining-mars-city-asap",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/self-sustaining-mars-city-asap/",
   "title": "Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.",
   "date_made": "2020-12-01",
   "deadline": "2050-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGhFmPjAuFg"
  },
  {
   "id": 80,
   "slug": "cars-deliver-themselves-from-factory",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cars-deliver-themselves-from-factory/",
   "title": "Cars deliver themselves from factory",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.",
   "date_made": "2025-06-11",
   "deadline": "2025-06-28",
   "resolved_date": "2025-06-27",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932591896939147494"
  },
  {
   "id": 81,
   "slug": "optimus-performing-factory-tasks-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-performing-factory-tasks-2024/",
   "title": "Optimus performing factory tasks 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.",
   "date_made": "2024-07-01",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-01",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/07/24/tesla-tsla-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 82,
   "slug": "optimus-10x-production-ramp-each-year",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-10x-production-ramp-each-year/",
   "title": "Optimus 10x production ramp each year",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.",
   "date_made": "2025-01-29",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 83,
   "slug": "tesla-worth-more-than-top-5",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-worth-more-than-top-5/",
   "title": "Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today",
   "date_made": "2024-06-13",
   "deadline": "2035-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=remZ1KMR_Z4"
  },
  {
   "id": 84,
   "slug": "semi-500-mile-range",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/semi-500-mile-range/",
   "title": "Semi 500 mile range",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scenario.",
   "date_made": "2017-11-16",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-12-01",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g"
  },
  {
   "id": 85,
   "slug": "starship-fully-reusable",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-fully-reusable/",
   "title": "Starship fully reusable",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy Grail of space.",
   "date_made": "2019-09-28",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 3,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2023",
    "2025",
    "2026",
    "2027"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://elonmuskinterviews.wordpress.com/2021/03/27/starship-presentation-2019-english/"
  },
  {
   "id": 86,
   "slug": "ai5-chip-production-2026-2027",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai5-chip-production-2026-2027/",
   "title": "AI5 chip production 2026-2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible in 2027.",
   "date_made": "2025-11-04",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1985785525429850463"
  },
  {
   "id": 88,
   "slug": "uncrewed-starships-to-mars-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/uncrewed-starships-to-mars-2026/",
   "title": "Uncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years.",
   "date_made": "2024-09-22",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1837908705683059166"
  },
  {
   "id": 89,
   "slug": "first-crewed-mars-mission-12-people",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-crewed-mars-mission-12-people/",
   "title": "First crewed Mars mission ~12 people",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.",
   "date_made": "2016-10-23",
   "deadline": "2029-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/comment/d94txm0/"
  },
  {
   "id": 90,
   "slug": "fsd-10x-better-with-new-model",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-10x-better-with-new-model/",
   "title": "New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.",
   "date_made": "2025-08-06",
   "deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953003713666400755"
  },
  {
   "id": 91,
   "slug": "banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/",
   "title": "Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-10",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-10-13",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1976531868800725101"
  },
  {
   "id": 92,
   "slug": "roadster-0-60-in-under-1",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/roadster-0-60-in-under-1/",
   "title": "Roadster 0-60 in under 1 second",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part",
   "date_made": "2024-02-28",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1762718427775410295"
  },
  {
   "id": 93,
   "slug": "roadster-620-mile-range",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/roadster-620-mile-range/",
   "title": "Roadster 620 mile range",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.",
   "date_made": "2017-11-16",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RRmepp7i5g"
  },
  {
   "id": 94,
   "slug": "roadster-spacex-package-with-thrusters",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/roadster-spacex-package-with-thrusters/",
   "title": "Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly around car. These rocket engines dramatically improve acceleration, top speed, braking & cornering. Maybe they will even allow a Tesla to fly …",
   "date_made": "2018-06-09",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1005577738332172289"
  },
  {
   "id": 95,
   "slug": "roadster-can-fly",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/roadster-can-fly/",
   "title": "Roadster can fly",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "The new Tesla Roadster can fly.",
   "date_made": "2024-06-15",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1801980372823187707"
  },
  {
   "id": 97,
   "slug": "driverless-robotaxis-austin",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/driverless-robotaxis-austin/",
   "title": "Driverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-22",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-01-22",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 98,
   "slug": "optimus-prototype",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-prototype/",
   "title": "Optimus prototype by 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.",
   "date_made": "2021-08-19",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-09-30",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M"
  },
  {
   "id": 99,
   "slug": "optimus-production-ready",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-production-ready/",
   "title": "Optimus production ready by 2023",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.",
   "date_made": "2022-04-07",
   "deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2QSBdFfnRI"
  },
  {
   "id": 100,
   "slug": "optimus-under-20000",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-under-20000/",
   "title": "Optimus under $20000",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.",
   "date_made": "2022-09-30",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU"
  },
  {
   "id": 101,
   "slug": "optimus-million-production",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-million-production/",
   "title": "Optimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start towards the end of next year.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-23",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 102,
   "slug": "model-3-5000-week",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-3-5000-week/",
   "title": "Model 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly production rate of 2,500 vehicles by the end of March and 5,000 by the end of Q2.",
   "date_made": "2018-02-07",
   "deadline": "2018-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2018-06-30",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://web.archive.org/web/20230804004958/https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144365-tesla-tsla-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript"
  },
  {
   "id": 103,
   "slug": "cybercab-mass-production",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-mass-production/",
   "title": "Cybercab mass production Q2 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-23",
   "deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-23",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 106,
   "slug": "orbital-satellites-ai-compute",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/orbital-satellites-ai-compute/",
   "title": "Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI Compute",
   "quote": "Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.",
   "date_made": "2025-12-07",
   "deadline": "2028-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1997706687155720229"
  },
  {
   "id": 107,
   "slug": "grok-5-release",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/",
   "title": "Grok 5 released before end of 2025",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.",
   "date_made": "2025-08-07",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953515379688714697"
  },
  {
   "id": 108,
   "slug": "grok-watchable-movie",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-watchable-movie/",
   "title": "Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-06",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1975262861346951212"
  },
  {
   "id": 109,
   "slug": "ai-generated-game",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-generated-game/",
   "title": "Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year",
   "date_made": "2025-10-06",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1975064769729327545"
  },
  {
   "id": 110,
   "slug": "x-money-launch",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/",
   "title": "X Money launches soon",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Features",
   "quote": "𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.",
   "date_made": "2025-11-13",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-06-25",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "2025",
    "2026"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1989003739831865805"
  },
  {
   "id": 111,
   "slug": "x-everything-app",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-everything-app/",
   "title": "X becomes the everything app",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Features",
   "quote": "𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)",
   "date_made": "2025-11-13",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1989003739831865805"
  },
  {
   "id": 113,
   "slug": "blindsight-restore-sight",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/blindsight-restore-sight/",
   "title": "Blindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Vision",
   "quote": "Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year",
   "date_made": "2025-09-04",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963646030936932737"
  },
  {
   "id": 114,
   "slug": "neuralink-fast-reaction-games",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/neuralink-fast-reaction-games/",
   "title": "Neuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Performance",
   "quote": "It won't be long before a Neuralink recipient can beat most and eventually all humans at fast reaction video games.",
   "date_made": "2025-10-31",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984296007581262103"
  },
  {
   "id": 115,
   "slug": "thousands-neuralink-implants",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousands-neuralink-implants/",
   "title": "Thousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Scaling",
   "quote": "If all goes well, there will be hundreds of people with Neuralinks within a few years, maybe tens of thousands within 5 years, millions within 10 years.",
   "date_made": "2024-08-22",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1826409318578565326"
  },
  {
   "id": 117,
   "slug": "elon-economic-growth-prediction",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/elon-economic-growth-prediction/",
   "title": "US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "category": "Economy",
   "quote": "Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years.",
   "date_made": "2025-12-24",
   "deadline": "2030-12-24",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2003893474878541841"
  },
  {
   "id": 118,
   "slug": "neuralink-high-volume-production-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/neuralink-high-volume-production-2026/",
   "title": "Neuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Scaling",
   "quote": "Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026. Device threads will go through the dura, without the need to remove it. This is a big deal.",
   "date_made": "2025-12-31",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2006513491105165411"
  },
  {
   "id": 119,
   "slug": "agi-achieved-in-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/agi-achieved-in-2026/",
   "title": "AGI will be achieved in 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AGI",
   "quote": "I think we'll hit AGI next year in 2026.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-06",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 120,
   "slug": "grok-5-release-q1-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release-q1-2026/",
   "title": "Grok 5 ships in Q1 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "5 is Q1.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-06",
   "deadline": "2026-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 121,
   "slug": "ai-exceeds-all-humans-2030",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-exceeds-all-humans-2030/",
   "title": "AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "AGI",
   "quote": "I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-06",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 122,
   "slug": "optimus-better-surgeon-three-years",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-better-surgeon-three-years/",
   "title": "Optimus a better surgeon than the best humans in 3 years (by 2029)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "Three years.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-06",
   "deadline": "2029-01-06",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 123,
   "slug": "starship-orbital-refueling-end-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-orbital-refueling-end-2026/",
   "title": "Starship orbital refueling demo by end of 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "I'd say towards the end of the year.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-06",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://singjupost.com/moonshots-220-w-elon-musk-on-agi-abundance-and-the-future-of-humanity-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 124,
   "slug": "fsd-europe-china-approval-february-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-europe-china-approval-february-2026/",
   "title": "Supervised FSD approval in Europe by Feb 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a similar timing, timing for China.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-22",
   "deadline": "2026-02-28",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-10",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0"
  },
  {
   "id": 125,
   "slug": "model-s-x-production-ends-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-x-production-ends-2026/",
   "title": "Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-28",
   "deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-09",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 126,
   "slug": "fremont-optimus-factory-million-units",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fremont-optimus-factory-million-units/",
   "title": "Fremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory with a long-term goal of having a million units a year. I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-28",
   "deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 127,
   "slug": "optimus-3-unveil-few-months",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-3-unveil-few-months/",
   "title": "Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-28",
   "deadline": "2026-07-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 129,
   "slug": "robotaxi-quarter-to-half-us-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-quarter-to-half-us-2026/",
   "title": "Robotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-28",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 131,
   "slug": "starship-v3-first-flight-april-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-v3-first-flight-april-2026/",
   "title": "Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks",
   "date_made": "2026-03-07",
   "deadline": "2026-04-10",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-22",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2030202126282973682"
  },
  {
   "id": 132,
   "slug": "terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/terafab-chip-fab-ai5-2027/",
   "title": "Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI Compute",
   "quote": "We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.",
   "date_made": "2026-03-21",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035506574182199757"
  },
  {
   "id": 133,
   "slug": "robotaxi-dozen-states-end-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-dozen-states-end-2026/",
   "title": "Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by the end of this year.",
   "date_made": "2026-04-22",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://whatsuptesla.com/2026/04/22/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-call-elon-musks-vision-for-the-ai-robotics-future-april-22-2026/"
  },
  {
   "id": 134,
   "slug": "fsd-v15-end-of-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-v15-end-of-2026/",
   "title": "FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI5.",
   "date_made": "2026-04-22",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://whatsuptesla.com/2026/04/22/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-call-elon-musks-vision-for-the-ai-robotics-future-april-22-2026/"
  },
  {
   "id": 135,
   "slug": "optimus-v3-production-august-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-v3-production-august-2026/",
   "title": "Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.",
   "date_made": "2026-04-22",
   "deadline": "2026-08-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://whatsuptesla.com/2026/04/22/tesla-q1-2026-earnings-call-elon-musks-vision-for-the-ai-robotics-future-april-22-2026/"
  },
  {
   "id": 138,
   "slug": "battery-swap-stations-2013",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/battery-swap-stations-2013/",
   "title": "Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Charging",
   "quote": "The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or free?",
   "date_made": "2013-06-20",
   "deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqN9-_7iNP8"
  },
  {
   "id": 139,
   "slug": "solar-roof-cheaper-than-normal-roof",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-roof-cheaper-than-normal-roof/",
   "title": "Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Energy",
   "quote": "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account.",
   "date_made": "2016-11-17",
   "deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-arnlSOCgs"
  },
  {
   "id": 140,
   "slug": "ai-smarter-than-any-human-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-smarter-than-any-human-2025/",
   "title": "AI smarter than any single human by end of 2025",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AGI",
   "quote": "My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.",
   "date_made": "2024-03-13",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1767738797276451090"
  },
  {
   "id": 141,
   "slug": "dojo-operational-2022",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/dojo-operational-2022/",
   "title": "Dojo supercomputer operational in 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI Compute",
   "quote": "We should have Dojo operational next year.",
   "date_made": "2021-08-19",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M"
  },
  {
   "id": 142,
   "slug": "solar-plurality-of-us-power-by-2033",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-plurality-of-us-power-by-2033/",
   "title": "Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Energy",
   "quote": "I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.",
   "date_made": "2013-02-27",
   "deadline": "2033-02-27",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgKWPdJWuBQ"
  },
  {
   "id": 143,
   "slug": "la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/la-to-ny-superchargers-end-2013/",
   "title": "Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Charging",
   "quote": "By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else.",
   "date_made": "2013-02-27",
   "deadline": "2013-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2014-01-27",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgKWPdJWuBQ"
  },
  {
   "id": 145,
   "slug": "humans-on-mars-best-case-10-years-2011",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars-best-case-10-years-2011/",
   "title": "Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.",
   "date_made": "2011-04-22",
   "deadline": "2021-04-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiPJsI8pl8Q"
  },
  {
   "id": 146,
   "slug": "spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-first-crew-in-three-years-2011/",
   "title": "SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Crewed Spaceflight",
   "quote": "I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.",
   "date_made": "2011-04-22",
   "deadline": "2014-04-22",
   "resolved_date": "2020-05-30",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiPJsI8pl8Q"
  },
  {
   "id": 148,
   "slug": "model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-s-deliveries-by-july-2012/",
   "title": "Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.",
   "date_made": "2012-02-09",
   "deadline": "2012-07-31",
   "resolved_date": "2012-06-22",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mURbzh9t0_0"
  },
  {
   "id": 149,
   "slug": "model-x-volume-production-q2-2015",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-x-volume-production-q2-2015/",
   "title": "Model X volume production in Q2 2015",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in the second quarter next year.",
   "date_made": "2014-06-03",
   "deadline": "2015-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2016-06-30",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDwEFvOh9co"
  },
  {
   "id": 150,
   "slug": "falcon-9-land-and-refly-within-12-months-2014",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-9-land-and-refly-within-12-months-2014/",
   "title": "80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Reusability",
   "quote": "It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the first time, but there's a lot of launches that will occur over the next year — there's at least a dozen launches that will occur over the next 12 months — and I think it's quite likely, probably 80, 90 percent likely, that one of those flights will be able to land and refly.",
   "date_made": "2014-10-24",
   "deadline": "2015-10-24",
   "resolved_date": "2017-03-30",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DUbiCQpw_4"
  },
  {
   "id": 151,
   "slug": "snake-charger-for-realz-2014",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/snake-charger-for-realz-2014/",
   "title": "'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Charging",
   "quote": "Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a solid metal snake. For realz.",
   "date_made": "2014-12-31",
   "deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/550297212769402881"
  },
  {
   "id": 152,
   "slug": "tesla-apple-market-cap-by-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-apple-market-cap-by-2025/",
   "title": "Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Financials",
   "quote": "If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.",
   "date_made": "2015-02-11",
   "deadline": "2025-02-11",
   "resolved_date": "2021-01-07",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6L-AMDt1cM"
  },
  {
   "id": 153,
   "slug": "autonomous-driving-solved-problem-2015",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/autonomous-driving-solved-problem-2015/",
   "title": "Autonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.",
   "date_made": "2015-03-17",
   "deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDm6Snkle70"
  },
  {
   "id": 154,
   "slug": "powerwall-ships-in-3-4-months-2015",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/powerwall-ships-in-3-4-months-2015/",
   "title": "$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Energy",
   "quote": "The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going to start shipping in approximately three or four months.",
   "date_made": "2015-04-30",
   "deadline": "2015-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2016-03-19",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIgzzAMgnSU"
  },
  {
   "id": 156,
   "slug": "australia-battery-100-days-or-free",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/australia-battery-100-days-or-free/",
   "title": "Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Energy",
   "quote": "Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That serious enough for you?",
   "date_made": "2017-03-10",
   "deadline": "2017-12-01",
   "resolved_date": "2017-12-01",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/840032197637685249"
  },
  {
   "id": 158,
   "slug": "master-plan-deux-semi-unveil-2017",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/master-plan-deux-semi-unveil-2017/",
   "title": "Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.",
   "date_made": "2016-07-20",
   "deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2017-11-16",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux"
  },
  {
   "id": 159,
   "slug": "master-plan-deux-tesla-bus-unveil-2017",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/master-plan-deux-tesla-bus-unveil-2017/",
   "title": "Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. ... With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager.",
   "date_made": "2016-07-20",
   "deadline": "2017-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux"
  },
  {
   "id": 160,
   "slug": "master-plan-deux-shared-fleet",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/master-plan-deux-shared-fleet/",
   "title": "Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.",
   "date_made": "2016-07-20",
   "deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux"
  },
  {
   "id": 161,
   "slug": "machine-that-builds-machine-v1-2018",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/machine-that-builds-machine-v1-2018/",
   "title": "'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.",
   "date_made": "2016-07-20",
   "deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux"
  },
  {
   "id": 162,
   "slug": "tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-profitable-q3-q4-2018/",
   "title": "Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Financials",
   "quote": "The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.",
   "date_made": "2018-04-13",
   "deadline": "2018-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-01-30",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984705630106673152"
  },
  {
   "id": 163,
   "slug": "v9-full-self-driving-features-august-2018",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/v9-full-self-driving-features-august-2018/",
   "title": "First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of our long-awaited Tesla Version 9. To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features.",
   "date_made": "2018-06-10",
   "deadline": "2018-08-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1005782088841232385"
  },
  {
   "id": 164,
   "slug": "bfr-cargo-ships-to-mars-2022",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/bfr-cargo-ships-to-mars-2022/",
   "title": "Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for a launch in about five years. Five years seems like a long time to me... That's our goal: to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous.",
   "date_made": "2017-09-29",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI"
  },
  {
   "id": 165,
   "slug": "bfr-crewed-mars-flights-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/bfr-crewed-mars-flights-2024/",
   "title": "Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Mars",
   "quote": "The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly four ships — two of which would be crewed.",
   "date_made": "2017-09-29",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI"
  },
  {
   "id": 166,
   "slug": "chicago-ohare-loop-18-to-24-months",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/chicago-ohare-loop-18-to-24-months/",
   "title": "Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)",
   "company": "Boring Company",
   "topic": "Tunnels & Transport",
   "category": "Transport",
   "quote": "Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than three years.",
   "date_made": "2018-06-14",
   "deadline": "2021-06-14",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ise2EKRUWGc"
  },
  {
   "id": 167,
   "slug": "tesla-insurance-in-about-a-month-2019",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-insurance-in-about-a-month-2019/",
   "title": "Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Financials",
   "quote": "The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.",
   "date_made": "2019-04-24",
   "deadline": "2019-05-24",
   "resolved_date": "2019-08-28",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/04/25/tesla-inc-tsla-q1-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx"
  },
  {
   "id": 168,
   "slug": "shanghai-gigafactory-timeline-2019",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/shanghai-gigafactory-timeline-2019/",
   "title": "Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume production next year",
   "date_made": "2019-01-07",
   "deadline": "2019-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2019-12-30",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082116267568377857"
  },
  {
   "id": 169,
   "slug": "covid-close-to-zero-new-cases-april-2020",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/covid-close-to-zero-new-cases-april-2020/",
   "title": "Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "COVID",
   "quote": "Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April",
   "date_made": "2020-03-19",
   "deadline": "2020-04-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960"
  },
  {
   "id": 170,
   "slug": "tesla-robotaxi-unveil-on-8-8-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-robotaxi-unveil-on-8-8-2024/",
   "title": "Tesla Robotaxi unveil on August 8, 2024",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8",
   "date_made": "2024-04-05",
   "deadline": "2024-08-08",
   "resolved_date": "2024-10-10",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368"
  },
  {
   "id": 171,
   "slug": "fsd-subscription-early-2021",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-subscription-early-2021/",
   "title": "FSD subscription released early 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.",
   "date_made": "2020-12-20",
   "deadline": "2021-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2021-07-17",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1340592138829099009"
  },
  {
   "id": 172,
   "slug": "grok-3-end-of-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-3-end-of-2024/",
   "title": "Grok 3 by end of 2024",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI",
   "quote": "Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special",
   "date_made": "2024-07-01",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-02-17",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1807643760584708363"
  },
  {
   "id": 173,
   "slug": "grok-2-comes-out-august-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-2-comes-out-august-2024/",
   "title": "Grok 2 comes out in August 2024",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI",
   "quote": "Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes out in August, will be a giant improvement in this regard.",
   "date_made": "2024-07-01",
   "deadline": "2024-08-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-08-14",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1807637096129241529"
  },
  {
   "id": 174,
   "slug": "25k-tesla-in-3-years-battery-day",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/25k-tesla-in-3-years-battery-day/",
   "title": "$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.",
   "date_made": "2020-09-22",
   "deadline": "2023-09-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds"
  },
  {
   "id": 175,
   "slug": "4680-pilot-10-gwh-within-a-year",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/4680-pilot-10-gwh-within-a-year/",
   "title": "4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Energy",
   "quote": "It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.",
   "date_made": "2020-09-22",
   "deadline": "2021-09-22",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds"
  },
  {
   "id": 176,
   "slug": "starlink-v2-direct-to-phone-2023",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-v2-direct-to-phone-2023/",
   "title": "Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starlink",
   "quote": "Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide",
   "date_made": "2022-08-26",
   "deadline": "2023-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2024-01-02",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1562956451538014209"
  },
  {
   "id": 177,
   "slug": "shocked-if-fsd-not-safer-than-human-2022",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/shocked-if-fsd-not-safer-than-human-2022/",
   "title": "'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.",
   "date_made": "2022-01-26",
   "deadline": "2022-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 178,
   "slug": "optimus-genuinely-useful-internal-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-genuinely-useful-internal-2025/",
   "title": "Genuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Optimus",
   "quote": "Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026",
   "date_made": "2024-07-22",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1815329637188202550"
  },
  {
   "id": 180,
   "slug": "twitter-creator-ad-revenue-share-starting-today",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/twitter-creator-ad-revenue-share-starting-today/",
   "title": "Creator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Twitter",
   "quote": "Starting today, Twitter will share ad revenue with creators for ads that appear in their reply threads",
   "date_made": "2023-02-03",
   "deadline": "2023-02-03",
   "resolved_date": "2023-07-13",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1621544497388875777"
  },
  {
   "id": 182,
   "slug": "starship-humans-on-moon-sooner-than-2024",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-humans-on-moon-sooner-than-2024/",
   "title": "Starship lands humans on the Moon 'probably sooner' than 2024",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "Probably sooner",
   "date_made": "2021-08-15",
   "deadline": "2024-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1426713672706052101"
  },
  {
   "id": 183,
   "slug": "giga-berlin-texas-production-2021",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/giga-berlin-texas-production-2021/",
   "title": "Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Vehicles",
   "quote": "We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.",
   "date_made": "2021-01-27",
   "deadline": "2021-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2022-04-07",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/"
  },
  {
   "id": 184,
   "slug": "unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/",
   "title": "Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.",
   "date_made": "2024-10-10",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs"
  },
  {
   "id": 185,
   "slug": "xai-open-source-grok-this-week",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/xai-open-source-grok-this-week/",
   "title": "xAI will open source Grok 'this week' (March 2024)",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI",
   "quote": "This week, @xAI will open source Grok",
   "date_made": "2024-03-11",
   "deadline": "2024-03-17",
   "resolved_date": "2024-03-17",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1767108624038449405"
  },
  {
   "id": 186,
   "slug": "cybercab-production-before-2027",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-production-before-2027/",
   "title": "Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames' — 'before 2027, let me put it that way', at a price below $30,000.",
   "date_made": "2024-10-10",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-17",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs"
  },
  {
   "id": 187,
   "slug": "fsd-v12-to-customers-in-two-weeks",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-v12-to-customers-in-two-weeks/",
   "title": "FSD v12 to customers in 'about 2 weeks' (Nov 2023)",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "About 2 weeks",
   "date_made": "2023-11-12",
   "deadline": "2023-11-26",
   "resolved_date": "2024-03-11",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1723852174818471956"
  },
  {
   "id": 188,
   "slug": "5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031/",
   "title": "5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starlink",
   "quote": "Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world",
   "date_made": "2026-06-13",
   "deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2065705276334833951"
  },
  {
   "id": 189,
   "slug": "1-million-tons-to-orbit-2031",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/1-million-tons-to-orbit-2031/",
   "title": "1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years",
   "date_made": "2026-06-10",
   "deadline": "2031-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2064519180464861192"
  },
  {
   "id": 190,
   "slug": "grok-full-movies-end-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-full-movies-end-2026/",
   "title": "Grok makes full movies by the end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Full movies by the end of this year",
   "date_made": "2026-06-17",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2067207305503101025"
  },
  {
   "id": 191,
   "slug": "optimus-von-neumann-probe",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-von-neumann-probe/",
   "title": "A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Future of Humanity",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe",
   "date_made": "2026-06-17",
   "deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2067128845623611830"
  },
  {
   "id": 192,
   "slug": "ai-stockfish-level-coding",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-stockfish-level-coding/",
   "title": "AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI",
   "quote": "AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use",
   "date_made": "2026-06-16",
   "deadline": null,
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2066880262668247091"
  },
  {
   "id": 193,
   "slug": "recover-starship-ship-intact-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/recover-starship-ship-intact-2025/",
   "title": "Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it back intact this year. We might be able to refly one with a fair bit of work by the end of this year.",
   "date_made": "2025-02-28",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSOxPJD-VNo"
  },
  {
   "id": 195,
   "slug": "conversational-grok-in-fsd",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/conversational-grok-in-fsd/",
   "title": "Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.",
   "date_made": "2026-06-18",
   "deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2067430722399539385"
  },
  {
   "id": 196,
   "slug": "economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years/",
   "title": "Economy 10x bigger in 10 years",
   "company": "General",
   "topic": "Politics & Economy",
   "category": "Economy",
   "quote": "I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfortable prediction.",
   "date_made": "2026-03-13",
   "deadline": "2036-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ"
  },
  {
   "id": 197,
   "slug": "spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030/",
   "title": "SpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Financials",
   "quote": "I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030",
   "date_made": "2026-06-14",
   "deadline": "2030-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2066273584645869808"
  },
  {
   "id": 198,
   "slug": "starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/",
   "title": "Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starlink",
   "quote": "the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around 2 years.",
   "date_made": "2025-09-10",
   "deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeZqZBRA-6Q"
  },
  {
   "id": 199,
   "slug": "new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026/",
   "title": "A new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.",
   "date_made": "2026-06-28",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2071184354756477041"
  },
  {
   "id": 200,
   "slug": "starlink-american-airlines-2027",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-american-airlines-2027/",
   "title": "Starlink comes to American Airlines by 2027",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starlink",
   "quote": "Starlink coming to @AmericanAir next year!",
   "date_made": "2026-06-23",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2069535601892987275"
  },
  {
   "id": 201,
   "slug": "xai-open-source-0-5t-model-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/xai-open-source-0-5t-model-2026/",
   "title": "xAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.",
   "date_made": "2026-05-25",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2058796067592736866"
  },
  {
   "id": 202,
   "slug": "starship-10-ships-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-10-ships-2026/",
   "title": "SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year",
   "date_made": "2026-05-18",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2056399924246278366"
  },
  {
   "id": 203,
   "slug": "xai-catches-up-to-leaders-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/xai-catches-up-to-leaders-2026/",
   "title": "xAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Scaling",
   "quote": "xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need the James Webb telescope to see who is in second place",
   "date_made": "2026-03-14",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2032816322929897506"
  },
  {
   "id": 204,
   "slug": "neuralink-next-gen-3x-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/neuralink-next-gen-3x-2026/",
   "title": "Next-gen Neuralink implant (3X capability) ready by end of 2026",
   "company": "Neuralink",
   "topic": "Neuralink & Health",
   "category": "Implants",
   "quote": "The next generation Neuralink cybernetic augment with 3X capability will be ready later this year.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-28",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2016575739655504070"
  },
  {
   "id": 205,
   "slug": "grokipedia-exceeds-wikipedia-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grokipedia-exceeds-wikipedia-2026/",
   "title": "Grokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grokipedia",
   "quote": "Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-02",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174"
  },
  {
   "id": 206,
   "slug": "starlink-v3-20kw-at-scale-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-v3-20kw-at-scale-2026/",
   "title": "Starlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starlink",
   "quote": "Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.",
   "date_made": "2025-12-10",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1998872465087541752"
  },
  {
   "id": 207,
   "slug": "spacex-95pct-earth-payload-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-95pct-earth-payload-2026/",
   "title": "SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Launch Share",
   "quote": "Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow.",
   "date_made": "2025-09-22",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1969988976259092692"
  },
  {
   "id": 208,
   "slug": "model-y-variant-us-production-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-variant-us-production-2026/",
   "title": "New Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Cars & Energy",
   "category": "Production",
   "quote": "This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.",
   "date_made": "2025-08-20",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1958069174892474729"
  },
  {
   "id": 209,
   "slug": "spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-revenue-exceeds-nasa-budget-2026/",
   "title": "SpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Business & Money",
   "category": "Revenue",
   "quote": "@SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.",
   "date_made": "2025-06-03",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929950051415273504"
  },
  {
   "id": 210,
   "slug": "starship-next-flight-v3-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/",
   "title": "Starship's next flight (V3 debut)",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "Starship flies again next month",
   "date_made": "2026-02-21",
   "deadline": "2026-03-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-22",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 1,
   "goalpost_history": [
    "Mar 2026",
    "May 2026"
   ],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2025352946733490471"
  },
  {
   "id": 211,
   "slug": "cortex-first-half-active-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cortex-first-half-active-2026/",
   "title": "First half of Cortex active by April 2026",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI Compute",
   "quote": "First half of Cortex will be active next month",
   "date_made": "2026-03-07",
   "deadline": "2026-04-30",
   "resolved_date": "2026-04-30",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2030166566277632192"
  },
  {
   "id": 212,
   "slug": "grok-4-2-order-of-magnitude-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-4-2-order-of-magnitude-2026/",
   "title": "Grok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes next month.",
   "date_made": "2026-02-17",
   "deadline": "2026-03-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2023836036896555294"
  },
  {
   "id": 213,
   "slug": "grok-code-oneshot-upgrade-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-code-oneshot-upgrade-2026/",
   "title": "Major Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-08",
   "deadline": "2026-02-28",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-17",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2009167253741424855"
  },
  {
   "id": 214,
   "slug": "grok-420-3-weeks-grok5-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-420-3-weeks-grok5-2025/",
   "title": "Grok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok",
   "quote": "Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months",
   "date_made": "2025-12-09",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1998470209066160405"
  },
  {
   "id": 215,
   "slug": "open-source-all-x-codebase-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/open-source-all-x-codebase-2026/",
   "title": "Open-source the entire X codebase",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Open Source",
   "quote": "hopefully by next month, we should be able to open source literally all of the @X codebase. Nothing left out at all.",
   "date_made": "2025-12-05",
   "deadline": "2026-01-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-03-01",
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1996989600602996811"
  },
  {
   "id": 216,
   "slug": "x-chat-security-open-source-2026",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-chat-security-open-source-2026/",
   "title": "Security-test and open-source all of X Chat",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Encryption",
   "quote": "In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code",
   "date_made": "2026-02-09",
   "deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "partial",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2020912495381057909"
  },
  {
   "id": 217,
   "slug": "robotaxi-fleet-double-dec-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-fleet-double-dec-2025/",
   "title": "Austin robotaxi fleet roughly doubles",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "Robotaxi",
   "quote": "The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month",
   "date_made": "2025-11-26",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2025-12-31",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1993538258253607260"
  },
  {
   "id": 218,
   "slug": "x-algorithm-purely-ai-nov-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-algorithm-purely-ai-nov-2025/",
   "title": "X algorithm 'purely AI' by November 2025",
   "company": "X",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Algorithm",
   "quote": "The algorithm will be purely AI by November, with significant progress along the way.",
   "date_made": "2025-09-19",
   "deadline": "2025-11-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1969081066578149547"
  },
  {
   "id": 219,
   "slug": "starship-v3-built-tested-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-v3-built-tested-2025/",
   "title": "Starship V3 built & tested by end of 2025",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.",
   "date_made": "2025-08-27",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-05-22",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1960812698037518540"
  },
  {
   "id": 220,
   "slug": "grok-imagine-v2-step-change-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-imagine-v2-step-change-2025/",
   "title": "Grok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "Grok Imagine",
   "quote": "Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!",
   "date_made": "2025-08-13",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": "2026-02-01",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1955645757899641294"
  },
  {
   "id": 221,
   "slug": "fsd-step-change-update-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-step-change-update-2025/",
   "title": "FSD update: step-change for rare conditions",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "FSD",
   "quote": "The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions",
   "date_made": "2025-08-08",
   "deadline": "2025-09-30",
   "resolved_date": "2025-10-07",
   "status": "delivered-late",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953658200471040159"
  },
  {
   "id": 222,
   "slug": "dojo-2-online-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/dojo-2-online-2025/",
   "title": "Bring Dojo 2 online in 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI Compute",
   "quote": "We start bringing Dojo 2 online later this year.",
   "date_made": "2025-06-05",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "cancelled",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930689309860045184"
  },
  {
   "id": 223,
   "slug": "first-factory-to-customer-self-delivery-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-factory-to-customer-self-delivery-2025/",
   "title": "First autonomous factory-to-customer delivery",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Self-Driving",
   "category": "Self-Driving",
   "quote": "Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.",
   "date_made": "2025-05-29",
   "deadline": "2025-06-30",
   "resolved_date": "2025-06-27",
   "status": "delivered",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1927970940874354941"
  },
  {
   "id": 224,
   "slug": "starship-ship-caught-by-tower-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-ship-caught-by-tower-2025/",
   "title": "Starship ship caught by the tower in 2025",
   "company": "SpaceX",
   "topic": "Space",
   "category": "Starship",
   "quote": "Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster",
   "date_made": "2025-05-14",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1922585324766507425"
  },
  {
   "id": 225,
   "slug": "legion-of-optimus-robots-2025",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/legion-of-optimus-robots-2025/",
   "title": "A 'legion' of Optimus robots in 2025",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Optimus",
   "quote": "There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year.",
   "date_made": "2025-04-02",
   "deadline": "2025-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "missed",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1907326226517168139"
  },
  {
   "id": 226,
   "slug": "grok-cpp-stack-massive-gains",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-cpp-stack-massive-gains/",
   "title": "Massive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite",
   "company": "xAI",
   "topic": "AI",
   "category": "AI Compute",
   "quote": "Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++ and massively simplified (most software layers will be deleted completely) and we exact-map Grok to work incredibly well on a GB300",
   "date_made": "2026-06-29",
   "deadline": "2026-09-30",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2071385784154759468"
  },
  {
   "id": 227,
   "slug": "optimus-sold-to-public-2027",
   "url": "https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-sold-to-public-2027/",
   "title": "Selling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027",
   "company": "Tesla",
   "topic": "Robots",
   "category": "Robots",
   "quote": "Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public.",
   "date_made": "2026-01-22",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "resolved_date": null,
   "status": "pending",
   "times_moved": 0,
   "goalpost_history": [],
   "primary_source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0"
  }
 ]
}