https://twoweeks.lol/ Status changes, goalpost moves, new predictions and resolved promises from the Elon Musk prediction tracker. en-us https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-ai5-chip-production-q2-2027/2026-07-15-tesla-ai5-chip-production-q2-2027Wed, 15 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction mined from Musk's Feb 5, 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast: Tesla's AI5 inference chip goes from design into production and scale around Q2 2027, with AI6 to follow less than a year later.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/space-most-compelling-place-for-ai-2028/2026-07-15-space-most-compelling-place-for-ai-2028Wed, 15 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction mined from Musk's Feb 5, 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast: 'mark my words,' within 30-36 months orbit becomes the most economically compelling place to run AI compute.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-variant-us-production-2026/2026-07-14-model-y-variant-us-production-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTDelivered ahead of schedule: the first US-built six-seat Model Y L rolled off the line at Giga Texas (reported July 8, 2026), about five months before Musk's end-of-2026 target.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/working-optional-in-20-years/2026-07-14-working-optional-in-20-yearsTue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction added from Musk's Nov 30, 2025 'People by WTF' interview: work becomes optional, 'like a hobby,' in under 20 years.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/2026-07-14-us-deflation-in-three-yearsTue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction added from Musk's Nov 30, 2025 'People by WTF' interview: goods-and-services growth overtakes money-supply growth in about 3 years, followed by deflation and zero interest rates.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-4-5-public-release/2026-07-09-grok-4-5-public-releaseThu, 09 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTDelivered on schedule — Grok 4.5 went public July 9 across the xAI API, Grok Build and all Cursor tiers; graded delivered.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/2026-07-09-first-people-moon-five-yearsThu, 09 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on the Sean Hannity Show (Jul 8 2026) Musk said SpaceX will land its first people on the Moon in under 5 years and grow a city of thousands within a decade.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-4-5-public-release/2026-07-08-grok-4-5-public-releaseWed, 08 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded: on July 8 2026 Musk said xAI would make Grok 4.5 — an 'Opus-class' model, faster and lower cost — available to the public the next day, July 9.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/2026-07-07-gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded (long-form backfill): in SpaceX's June 8, 2026 technical talk on manufacturing/launching AI satellites at scale, Musk said SpaceX aims to reach an annualized rate of ~1 GW/year of space-based AI compute by the end of 2027.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-v3-built-tested-2025/2026-07-03-starship-v3-built-tested-2025Fri, 03 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Missed → Delivered-late. V3 missed the end-2025 target but was built, tested and flown on Flight 12 (May 22, 2026) — reached space, deployed 22 Starlink simulators and splashed down as planned, ~5 months late.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-sold-to-public-2027/2026-07-03-optimus-sold-to-public-2027Fri, 03 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded (long-form backfill): at Davos on Jan 22, 2026, in conversation with Larry Fink, Musk said Tesla expects to begin selling Optimus humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-cpp-stack-massive-gains/2026-07-02-grok-cpp-stack-massive-gainsThu, 02 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded: on June 29 2026 Musk predicted 'truly massive gains' in ~3 months once xAI rewrites its entire training/inference stack in C/C++ and exact-maps Grok to Nvidia GB300 hardware (deadline ~end Sept 2026).https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026/2026-06-29-new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on June 28 2026, announcing Grok 4.5's private beta, Musk said completely-from-scratch new models would be released every month for the rest of the year.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/2026-06-27-x-money-launchSat, 27 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Partial → Delivered Late. X Money launched publicly on June 25, 2026 to select U.S. Premium+ subscribers (first broad consumer launch — live P2P payments, Visa card, $10M FDIC) — ~7 months after the Nov 2025 'soon' promise. The earlier 'partial' waited for full general availability; a real tiered public launch satisfies 'X Money comes out'.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-launch-austin/2026-06-27-robotaxi-launch-austinSat, 27 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Partial → Delivered Late. The Austin robotaxi launched on the predicted date (Jun 22 2025) but supervised; it went genuinely driverless (no in-car monitor) on Jan 22 2026 and metro-wide Jun 3 2026 — a real driverless service, just ~7 months late. The driverless milestone was confirmed by Tesla's AI lead + Musk; the old 'partial' had waited on the supervised-launch caveat.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-27-siteSat, 27 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTAudited every multi-deadline prediction's goalpost trail against Musk's own words (3 independent passes). Corrected: Roadster (dropped an interpolated 2021, added his 2028); Neuralink (2021->2022); Starship orbit (dropped unverified 2021); Starship reusability (added 2023); Semi volume (kept only his named volume years 2024/2026); FSD 'feature complete' (one-shot 2019, not 2020); X 'everything app' (cleared 2023-25 — those were exec/press, not Musk); Mars statements split accurately across the two cards.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/2026-06-26-starlink-spectrum-phones-2-yearsFri, 26 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction added. At the All-In Summit (Sep 2025), Musk said phones able to use the 2 GHz spectrum SpaceX is buying from EchoStar would 'probably start shipping in around 2 years' — direct-to-cell, with matching satellites built in parallel. Deadline ~Sep 2027.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030/2026-06-24-spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030Wed, 24 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: two days after SpaceX's June 12 IPO, Musk forecast on X that SpaceX 'might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030' (~53x its ~$18.7B in 2025), adding he'd be surprised if it weren't above $1T in 2031.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years/2026-06-21-economy-10x-bigger-in-10-yearsSun, 21 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: at the March 2026 Abundance Summit Musk forecast the global economy growing ~10x in 10 years ('a fairly comfortable prediction' barring WW3); he re-shared the clip June 21.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-fully-reusable/2026-06-18-starship-fully-reusableThu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTGoalpost moved to 2027: on the June 16 Joe Rogan interview Musk said rapid reusability of the whole Starship stack would come 'next year,' slipping from the end-2026 target.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/recover-starship-ship-intact-2026/2026-06-18-recover-starship-ship-intact-2026Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: Musk told Joe Rogan SpaceX will 'probably recover the ship sometime this year,' a 2026 milestone toward reusability.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/several-starships-to-mars-end-2027/2026-06-18-several-starships-to-mars-end-2027Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: Musk told Joe Rogan the 'default plan' is to launch several uncrewed Starships to Mars in the late-2027 window.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/conversational-grok-in-fsd/2026-06-18-conversational-grok-in-fsdThu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: Musk said conversational Grok in Tesla FSD (natural-language driving commands) will arrive 'in about 3 months or so' (~Sept 2026).https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/recover-starship-ship-intact-2025/2026-06-18-recover-starship-ship-intact-2025Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTCorrected: stated on JRE #2281 (Feb 28 2025), not 2026. 'This year' meant 2025 — no ship was recovered intact in 2025, so this is now resolved MISSED.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-full-movies-end-2026/2026-06-17-grok-full-movies-end-2026Wed, 17 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW — Musk (June 17) escalated his AI-movie claim to 'full movies by the end of this year,' replying to xAI's Grok Imagine Video 1.5.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-von-neumann-probe/2026-06-17-optimus-von-neumann-probeWed, 17 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW — Musk (June 17) said a legion of Optimus robots plus solar panels would be the first Von Neumann probe (self-replicating spacecraft); no timeline.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-stockfish-level-coding/2026-06-16-ai-stockfish-level-codingTue, 16 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW — Musk (June 16) predicted AI will achieve 'Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use,' after SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031/2026-06-15-5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW prediction tracked — Musk (June 13) predicted Starlink would have ~5× the satellites of the rest of the world within ~5 years.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/1-million-tons-to-orbit-2031/2026-06-15-1-million-tons-to-orbit-2031Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW prediction tracked — Musk (June 10) said 1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughly 5 years (~2031).https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cross-country-autonomous-drive/2026-06-12-cross-country-autonomous-driveFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTTwo entries for the same Oct 2016 coast-to-coast autonomous-drive promise were merged into one.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-12-siteFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTTitles clarified, verbatim quotes restored from primary sources, paraphrases now labeled, and several resolution dates made precise.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-ipo/2026-06-12-spacex-ipoFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTDELIVERED — SPCX started trading on the Nasdaq June 12 at $135/share (~$1.75T valuation), the largest IPO ever. Predicted December 2025; landed with six months to spare.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-10x-better-with-new-model/2026-06-12-fsd-10x-better-with-new-modelFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTDELIVERED-LATE — FSD v14.1 with the promised ~10x parameter count began rolling out October 7, 2025, about a week past the 'end of next month' (Sept 30, 2025) target from Musk's Aug 6 tweet.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-12-siteFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTHistorical build-out (2008–2024 sweeps): Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013); Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013; Supercharging free for Model S buyers, forever (2013); Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011); SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011); Model X production end of 2013, bulk production in 2014…https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-11-siteThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTtwoweeks.lol rebuilt: 117 predictions, per-prediction pages, primary sources, daily robot updates.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxis-metro-areas/2026-06-11-robotaxis-metro-areasThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Austin ended 2025 with roughly 60-72 robotaxis, nowhere near the 500+ Musk predicted on the Oct 2025 earnings call.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxis-in-half-of-us-population/2026-06-11-robotaxis-in-half-of-us-populationThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. At the end of 2025, Tesla's only robotaxi deployment was Austin (Bay Area rides used human safety drivers), and even Austin rides still had in-car safety monitors until January 22, 2026.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/driverless-robotaxis-in-3-weeks-from/2026-06-11-driverless-robotaxis-in-3-weeks-fromThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Partial. Within a week of the Dec 9 claim, Tesla began testing completely empty robotaxis (no occupants at all) on Austin roads, confirmed by Musk around Dec 13-15, 2025 — satisfying the literal claim inside the 3-week window.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-250-000-units-year-by/2026-06-11-cybertruck-250-000-units-year-byThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Tesla sold only 20,237 Cybertrucks in all of 2025 — down 48% from 38,965 in 2024 — versus the predicted 250,000/year run rate.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-volume-production-2025/2026-06-11-tesla-semi-volume-production-2025Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Delivered Late. Volume production did not start in 2025.