https://twoweeks.lol/ Status changes, goalpost moves, new predictions and resolved promises from the Elon Musk prediction tracker. en-us https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cross-country-autonomous-drive/2026-06-12-cross-country-autonomous-driveFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTTwo entries for the same Oct 2016 coast-to-coast autonomous-drive promise were merged into one.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-12-siteFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTTitles clarified, verbatim quotes restored from primary sources, paraphrases now labeled, and several resolution dates made precise.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-ipo/2026-06-12-spacex-ipoFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTDELIVERED — SPCX started trading on the Nasdaq June 12 at $135/share (~$1.75T valuation), the largest IPO ever. Predicted December 2025; landed with six months to spare.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-10x-better-with-new-model/2026-06-12-fsd-10x-better-with-new-modelFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTDELIVERED-LATE — FSD v14.1 with the promised ~10x parameter count began rolling out October 7, 2025, about a week past the 'end of next month' (Sept 30, 2025) target from Musk's Aug 6 tweet.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-12-siteFri, 12 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTHistorical build-out (2008–2024 sweeps): Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013); Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013; Supercharging free for Model S buyers, forever (2013); Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011); SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011); Model X production end of 2013, bulk production in 2014…https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-11-siteThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTtwoweeks.lol rebuilt: 117 predictions, per-prediction pages, primary sources, daily robot updates.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxis-metro-areas/2026-06-11-robotaxis-metro-areasThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Austin ended 2025 with roughly 60-72 robotaxis, nowhere near the 500+ Musk predicted on the Oct 2025 earnings call.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxis-in-half-of-us-population/2026-06-11-robotaxis-in-half-of-us-populationThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. At the end of 2025, Tesla's only robotaxi deployment was Austin (Bay Area rides used human safety drivers), and even Austin rides still had in-car safety monitors until January 22, 2026.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/driverless-robotaxis-in-3-weeks-from/2026-06-11-driverless-robotaxis-in-3-weeks-fromThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Partial. Within a week of the Dec 9 claim, Tesla began testing completely empty robotaxis (no occupants at all) on Austin roads, confirmed by Musk around Dec 13-15, 2025 — satisfying the literal claim inside the 3-week window.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-250-000-units-year-by/2026-06-11-cybertruck-250-000-units-year-byThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Tesla sold only 20,237 Cybertrucks in all of 2025 — down 48% from 38,965 in 2024 — versus the predicted 250,000/year run rate.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-semi-volume-production-2025/2026-06-11-tesla-semi-volume-production-2025Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Delivered Late. Volume production did not start in 2025.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/humans-on-mars/2026-06-11-humans-on-marsThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Cancelled. Humans on Mars by 2026 is now impossible: on February 8, 2026, Musk announced SpaceX has shifted focus to building a city on the Moon, with Mars development pushed back about five to seven years.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-to-mars-late-2026/2026-06-11-starship-to-mars-late-2026Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Cancelled. SpaceX abandoned the late-2026 Mars window.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/50-chance-starship-to-mars-by/2026-06-11-50-chance-starship-to-mars-byThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Cancelled. The coin-flip resolved tails: SpaceX cancelled its 2026 Mars attempt outright in February 2026, pivoting to lunar missions and delaying the Mars program roughly five to seven years..https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/quadriplegics-control-computers-faster-than-people/2026-06-11-quadriplegics-control-computers-faster-than-peopleThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Not achieved by the 2025 deadline.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/thousand-optimus-factories/2026-06-11-thousand-optimus-factoriesThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Tesla did not have 1,000+ Optimus robots working in its factories by end of 2025.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/5-000-optimus-robots-in-2025/2026-06-11-5-000-optimus-robots-in-2025Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Missed. Tesla promised 'several thousand' Optimus robots in 2025 (internal plan ~10,000) but reportedly completed only a few hundred, and Musk admitted in January 2026 that none were doing useful factory work in a material way.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/hw3-sufficient-for-fsd/2026-06-11-hw3-sufficient-for-fsdThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Disputed → Missed. No longer merely disputed — definitively false.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/5-uncrewed-starships-to-mars-2026/2026-06-11-5-uncrewed-starships-to-mars-2026Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Cancelled. The five-ship uncrewed Mars campaign for the Nov-Dec 2026 transfer window was shelved.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoff/2026-06-11-banish-feature-auto-parking-after-dropoffThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Partial. Partially delivered.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/driverless-robotaxis-austin/2026-06-11-driverless-robotaxis-austinThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Delivered → Delivered Late. The current 'delivered 2025-12-14' marking is too generous: at end of 2025 only a handful of empty test vehicles were running (testing confirmed ~Dec 13-15), while the rider-facing fleet still carried safety monitors.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybercab-mass-production/2026-06-11-cybercab-mass-productionThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Partial. Cybercab production began at Giga Texas — first unit reportedly rolled off the line February 17, 2026, and Musk confirmed the start on the Q1 2026 earnings call (April 23) — but it is a slow pilot ramp, not mass production.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/2026-06-11-x-money-launchThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Partial. 'Soon' (Nov 2025) did not mean 2025.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/billion-x-accounts/2026-06-11-billion-x-accountsThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Pending → Disputed. Never substantiated.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-11-siteThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew entries from the 2026 sweep: Neuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026; AGI will be achieved in 2026; Grok 5 ships in Q1 2026; AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030; Optimus a better surgeon than the best humans in 3 years (by 2029); Starship orbital refueling demo by end of 2026; FSD approval in Europe (and maybe China) by February 2026; Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)…https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-11-siteThu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTEvery live prediction now cites Elon Musk directly (tweet, video, his own writing, or earnings transcript). 5 entries without a verifiable primary source were unpublished pending better sourcing.