twoweeks.lol — Elon Musk prediction updates https://twoweeks.lol/ Status changes, goalpost moves, new predictions and resolved promises from the Elon Musk prediction tracker. en-us AI lets solo devs ship studio-quality games by 2027https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solo-devs-ship-ai-games-no-studio-2027/2026-10-14-solo-devs-ship-ai-games-no-studio-2027Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTAsked about a forecast that AI would let every solo developer ship a high-quality game with no studio within one to two years, Elon Musk replied “Next year,” setting a 2027 deadline.SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-ai-revenue-exceeds-rest-september-2026/2026-10-13-spacex-ai-revenue-exceeds-rest-september-2026Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTGraded missed: September ended with no public receipt that SpaceX AI revenue overtook the rest of the company. The last official print still had AI at $2.56 billion versus $5.25 billion from Connectivity and Space, and the big cloud contracts ramp in October.Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-mk1-test-flight-in-one-to-two-months/2026-10-12-starship-mk1-test-flight-in-one-to-two-monthsMon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTSource upgraded: Musk's own words from the Sep 28 2019 Starship update video (00:50:02) replace the SpaceNews paraphrase. Card is live again; grade unchanged (Missed).About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 2027https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/about-1000-starlink-v3-satellites-by-q2-2027/2026-10-12-about-1000-starlink-v3-satellites-by-q2-2027Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Call, August 4, 2026). Graded Pending.Grok 5 out before end of 2026https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-before-end-of-2026/2026-10-12-grok-5-before-end-of-2026Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Call, August 4, 2026). Graded Pending.SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-ai-revenue-exceeds-rest-september-2026/2026-10-12-spacex-ai-revenue-exceeds-rest-september-2026Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX Company Update, August 11, 2026). Graded Pending.SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-full-reusability-in-2026/2026-10-12-starship-full-reusability-in-2026Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (All-In Summit, September 7, 2025). Graded Pending.Half of all miles driven are autonomous in five years (by 2030)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/half-of-miles-driven-autonomous-by-2030/2026-10-12-half-of-miles-driven-autonomous-by-2030Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Verdict with Ted Cruz, March 17, 2025). Graded Pending.People back on the Moon and uncrewed Starships on Mars within five years (by 2029)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/people-on-moon-and-ships-on-mars-within-five-years/2026-10-12-people-on-moon-and-ships-on-mars-within-five-yearsMon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (In Good Company, April 8, 2024). Graded Pending.Starship ship reused in 2025https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-ship-reused-in-2025/2026-10-12-starship-ship-reused-in-2025Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Making Life Multiplanetary, April 4, 2024). Graded Missed.80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-booster-catch-80-90-percent-2024/2026-10-12-starship-booster-catch-80-90-percent-2024Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Making Life Multiplanetary, April 4, 2024). Graded Delivered.Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-pad-turnaround-under-24-hours-2024/2026-10-12-starship-pad-turnaround-under-24-hours-2024Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase, March 18, 2024). Graded Missed.Starlink Mini launches later in 2024https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-mini-later-in-2024/2026-10-12-starlink-mini-later-in-2024Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase, March 18, 2024). Graded Delivered.First Neuralink human implant later in 2023https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-neuralink-human-implant-in-2023/2026-10-12-first-neuralink-human-implant-in-2023Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (VivaTech, June 16, 2023). Graded Missed.Cybertruck delivery event probably in Q3 2023https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-delivery-event-q3-2023/2026-10-12-cybertruck-delivery-event-q3-2023Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Q1 2023 Earnings Call, April 19, 2023). Graded Missed.Musk finds a new Twitter CEO around the end of 2023https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/new-twitter-ceo-by-end-of-2023/2026-10-12-new-twitter-ceo-by-end-of-2023Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (World Government Summit, February 15, 2023). Graded Delivered.FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 2022https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/fsd-beta-worldwide-by-end-of-2022/2026-10-12-fsd-beta-worldwide-by-end-of-2022Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla AI Day, September 30, 2022). Graded Missed.Tesla exits 2022 at a 2-million-car annual run ratehttps://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-2-million-run-rate-end-of-2022/2026-10-12-tesla-2-million-run-rate-end-of-2022Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Shareholder Meeting, August 4, 2022). Graded Missed.A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-and-booster-every-month-by-end-of-2022/2026-10-12-starship-and-booster-every-month-by-end-of-2022Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX Starship Update, February 10, 2022). Graded Missed.Starship orbital launch attempt in January or February 2022https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-orbital-attempt-jan-feb-2022/2026-10-12-starship-orbital-attempt-jan-feb-2022Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (NASEM Space Studies Board, November 17, 2021). Graded Missed.Model Y becomes the world's best-selling vehicle in 2023https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023/2026-10-12-model-y-best-selling-car-in-world-2023Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Shareholder Meeting, October 7, 2021). Graded Delivered.Las Vegas Loop opens in a month or two (Oct 2020)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/las-vegas-loop-opens-in-a-month-or-two/2026-10-12-las-vegas-loop-opens-in-a-month-or-twoMon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Mars Society Convention, October 16, 2020). Graded Missed.Tesla reaches 10,000 cars a week across S, X and 3 in 2019https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/10000-cars-a-week-in-2019/2026-10-12-10000-cars-a-week-in-2019Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Autonomy Day, April 22, 2019). Graded Missed.Human intervention makes a Tesla less safe by 2020 at the latesthttps://twoweeks.lol/predictions/human-intervention-decreases-safety-by-2020/2026-10-12-human-intervention-decreases-safety-by-2020Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Lex Fridman Podcast, April 12, 2019). Graded Missed.$39,000 Standard Range Model Y in 2021https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/39000-model-y-standard-in-2021/2026-10-12-39000-model-y-standard-in-2021Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Model Y Unveiling, March 14, 2019). Graded Missed.Tesla picks a European Gigafactory site before end of 2018https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-europe-gigafactory-site-by-end-of-2018/2026-10-12-tesla-europe-gigafactory-site-by-end-of-2018Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Q2 2018 Earnings Call, August 2, 2018). Graded Missed.Starship short hop flights in the first half of 2019https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-short-hops-first-half-of-2019/2026-10-12-starship-short-hops-first-half-of-2019Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SXSW, March 11, 2018). Graded Partial.SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-fairing-recovery-within-six-months/2026-10-12-spacex-fairing-recovery-within-six-monthsMon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Falcon Heavy Post-Launch Press Conference, February 6, 2018). Graded Missed.SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-30-launches-in-2018/2026-10-12-spacex-30-launches-in-2018Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (SpaceX All-Hands Company Talk with Elon Musk (2017), September 8, 2017). Graded Missed.Three times as many Superchargers by end of 2018https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/three-times-as-many-superchargers-by-end-of-2018/2026-10-12-three-times-as-many-superchargers-by-end-of-2018Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Model 3 Handover Event, July 28, 2017). Graded Missed.Model Y hits the roads around 2019https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-on-the-roads-in-2019/2026-10-12-model-y-on-the-roads-in-2019Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Shareholder Meeting, June 6, 2017). Graded Missed.Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production by early 2018https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/solar-roof-spanish-tile-french-slate-early-2018/2026-10-12-solar-roof-spanish-tile-french-slate-early-2018Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Tesla Shareholder Meeting, June 6, 2017). Graded Missed.Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 2017https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-announces-gigafactory-locations-in-2017/2026-10-12-tesla-announces-gigafactory-locations-in-2017Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (TED, April 28, 2017). Graded Missed.Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/crew-dragon-flying-in-2017/2026-10-12-crew-dragon-flying-in-2017Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Code Conference, June 1, 2016). Graded Missed.Falcon Heavy launches by end of 2016 (Code 2016)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/falcon-heavy-by-end-of-2016/2026-10-12-falcon-heavy-by-end-of-2016Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Code Conference, June 1, 2016). Graded Missed.Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/well-over-a-dozen-spacex-launches-in-2016/2026-10-12-well-over-a-dozen-spacex-launches-in-2016Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Post-Landing Telecon). Graded Missed.SpaceX reflies a landed Falcon 9 booster in 2016https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-reflies-landed-booster-in-2016/2026-10-12-spacex-reflies-landed-booster-in-2016Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Post-Landing Telecon). Graded Missed.Sleep in your car and wake at your destination in 5-6 years (2014)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/sleep-in-tesla-wake-at-destination-in-5-6-years/2026-10-12-sleep-in-tesla-wake-at-destination-in-5-6-yearsMon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (Interview with Bloomberg, October 10, 2014). Graded Missed.SpaceX flies astronauts to the space station in 2015https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-astronauts-to-iss-in-2015/2026-10-12-spacex-astronauts-to-iss-in-2015Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (World Energy Innovation Forum, May 16, 2014). Graded Missed.Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/half-of-new-cars-fully-autonomous-by-2022/2026-10-12-half-of-new-cars-fully-autonomous-by-2022Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew card from the interview-checklist transcript mine (World Energy Innovation Forum, May 16, 2014). Graded Missed.