# twoweeks.lol — Elon Musk Predictions Tracker

> A public tracker of 206 predictions Elon Musk has made in his own words (X posts, video interviews, his blog posts, earnings calls), each scored against reality with citations. 41 missed, 7 cancelled, 20 on time, 31 late, 20 partial, 86 still open. Median Elon-Time multiplier when deadlines slip: ×2.1.

## Key pages
- [The feed](https://twoweeks.lol/): all predictions, filterable by status, topic, company
- [Elon Time, quantified](https://twoweeks.lol/elon-time/): delay statistics and converter
- [Methodology](https://twoweeks.lol/about/): the source rule (his own words only) and scoring
- [Open dataset](https://twoweeks.lol/data/): full JSON/CSV download, CC BY 4.0 with attribution

## Tesla owner tools
- [Tesla battery health test](https://twoweeks.lol/battery/): free degradation check via Tesla Fleet API
- [Tesla VIN decoder](https://twoweeks.lol/vin/): model, year, drive unit, open recalls
- [Battery replacement cost](https://twoweeks.lol/battery-cost/): real quotes + warranty window
- [All owner tools](https://twoweeks.lol/tools/): charging, range, wraps, tire pressure

## Topics
- [Self-Driving](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/self-driving/)
- [Robots](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/robots/)
- [Space](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/space/)
- [AI](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/ai/)
- [Neuralink & Health](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/neuralink-health/)
- [Cars & Energy](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/cars-energy/)
- [Business & Money](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/business-money/)
- [Tunnels & Transport](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/tunnels-transport/)
- [Future of Humanity](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/future-of-humanity/)
- [Politics & Economy](https://twoweeks.lol/topics/politics-economy/)

## Notable predictions
- [1 million people on Mars](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/1-million-people-on-mars/): Pending, 12,545 days left (promised Sep 2016)
- [Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/self-sustaining-mars-city-asap/): Pending, 8,892 days left (promised Dec 2020)
- [Working will be optional in less than 20 years](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/working-optional-in-20-years/): Pending, 7,066 days left (promised Nov 2025)
- [Economy 10x bigger in 10 years](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years/): Pending, 3,779 days left (promised Mar 2026)
- [Money won't matter by 2036](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/money-wont-matter-2036/): Pending, 3,779 days left (promised Jul 2026)
- [AI robot singularity is 10 years away](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-robot-singularity-ten-years/): Pending, 3,618 days left (promised Jul 2026)
- [80% of Tesla value will be Optimus](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/80-of-tesla-value-will-be/): Pending, 3,413 days left (promised Sep 2025)
- [Superhuman abilities via Neuralink](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/superhuman-abilities-via-neuralink/): Pending, 3,413 days left (promised Apr 2025)
- [Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-worth-more-than-top-5/): Pending, 3,413 days left (promised Jun 2024)
- [LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cross-country-autonomous-drive/): Partial, 8.1 years late (promised Oct 2016)
- [Autonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/autonomous-driving-solved-problem-2015/): Missed, 2,796 days past due (promised Mar 2015)
- ['Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/machine-that-builds-machine-v1-2018/): Missed, 2,796 days past due (promised Jul 2016)
- [SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-3-5-trillion-revenue-2033/): Pending, 2,683 days left (promised Aug 2026)
- [90% autopilot capable by 2015](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/90-autopilot-capable-by-2015/): Partial, 7.2 years late (promised Oct 2014)
- [Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017](https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/master-plan-deux-tesla-bus-unveil-2017/): Delivered · Late, 6.8 years late (promised Jul 2016)