Missed
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.”
— Elon Musk · May 29, 2025 · SpaceX Starbase talk 'The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary', May 29 2025 (Friends of NASA YouTube re-upload) ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — SPACEX STARBASE TALK 'THE ROAD TO MAKING LIFE MULTIPLANETARY', MAY 29 2025 (FRIENDS OF NASA YOUTUBE RE-UPLOAD)
What actually happened
The coin-flip resolved tails: SpaceX cancelled its 2026 Mars attempt outright in February 2026, pivoting to lunar missions and delaying the Mars program roughly five to seven years. CNN — Elon Musk says SpaceX prioritizing the moon, pivots away from his Mars settlement ambition ↗
The Progression
May 29, 2025
The promise: “I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.” · SpaceX Starbase talk 'The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary', May 29 2025 (Friends of NASA YouTube re-upload) ↗
Dec 31, 2026
Deadline passed. The coin-flip resolved tails: SpaceX cancelled its 2026 Mars attempt outright in February 2026, pivoting to lunar missions and delaying the Mars program roughly five to seven years. CNN — Elon Musk says SpaceX prioritizing the moon, pivots away from his Mars settlement ambition ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Cancelled · on time. Quietly shelved.
During a May 2025 talk at Starbase titled 'The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary,' Musk put the odds of SpaceX meeting its 2026 Mars deadline at 50 percent. The estimate covered the first uncrewed Starship mission to Mars. The coin flip resolved against him: SpaceX cancelled the 2026 attempt in February 2026, pivoting to lunar missions and delaying the Mars program roughly five to seven years.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [VIDEO] SpaceX Starbase talk 'The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary', May 29 2025 (Friends of NASA YouTube re-upload)
- [REPORT] aljazeera.com
More from the feed
Missed
Cancelled
Starship to Mars late 2026
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Missed
Starship orbital by March 2020
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.