Elon Time, quantified.
"Two weeks" is a unit of hope, not time. Across 181 tracked predictions, when a deadline slips, the median slipped prediction takes ×1.5 the promised time — and that excludes the 79 that never arrived at all.
The Elon-Time Converter
Elon says:
→ history says:
Median Elon-Time multiplier ×1.5, derived from every late-but-delivered prediction with a dated promise. The 79 promises that never arrived are excluded — so consider this the optimistic case.
Latest deliveries on record
Miss rate by company
RESOLVED CLAIMS ONLYHouse records
Total goalposts moved
40
Distinct deadline revisions across all claims.
Average delivery delay
269 days
Mean lateness across everything that shipped late.
Delivered, eventually
48
Credit where due — the wins are on the board too.
/// The Daily Verdict
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