Missed
Humans on Mars by 2024
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
— Elon Musk · Mar 15, 2025 · Musk X post, Mar 15 2025 (same post as starship-to-mars-late-2026) ↗
The Progression
Mar 15, 2025
The promise: “If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.” · Musk X post, Mar 15 2025 (same post as starship-to-mars-late-2026) ↗
2026
Timeline pushed to 2026.
Goalpost #1
Goalpost #1
2029
Timeline pushed to 2029.
Goalpost #2
Goalpost #2
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,298 days left. Still waiting.
In the same March 2025 X post that targeted an uncrewed Starship for Mars in late 2026, Musk said human landings 'may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.' Crewed-landing targets had already moved twice, from 2024 to 2026 to 2029. The prediction remains pending against a 2029 deadline.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11More from the feed
Missed
Cancelled
Humans on Mars by 2026
“Highly confident SpaceX will land humans on Mars about six years from now. If we get lucky, maybe four years.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars with one million people.”
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