Pending
Starship fully reusable
“Unlike SpaceX's fleet of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, which are partially reusable, Musk's aim is to …”
SpaceX predictions, scored.
Mars, Starship, Starlink and the art of the aspirational launch window. Scorecard so far: 5 delivered · 16 missed · 8 still open.
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29 CLAIMSPending
Pending
Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
Pending
Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 → 2029 · moved 2×
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars with one million people.”
Pending
Cancelled
Humans on Mars by 2026
“Highly confident SpaceX will land humans on Mars about six years from now. If we get lucky, maybe four years.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Cancelled
Starship to Mars late 2026
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Cancelled
50% chance Starship to Mars by late 2026
“I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.”
Cancelled
5 uncrewed Starships to Mars 2026
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
Missed
Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
Missed
Humans on Mars by 2024
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
Missed
Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
Missed
Missed
Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
Missed
'Highly confident' Starship reaches orbit in 2022
“I feel at this point highly confident that we'll get to orbit this year.”
Missed
Starship orbital 2021
“Now SpaceX expects its first orbital flight test won't happen until 2021.”
goalposts: Mar 2020 → 2021 · moved 1×
Missed
Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
Missed
Starship orbital by March 2020
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
Missed
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
Missed
Space tourism around Moon by 2018
“We are excited to announce that SpaceX has been approached to fly two private citizens on a trip around the…”
Missed
80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
Delivered
Delivered · Late
Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · Late
Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered · Late
SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
Delivered · Late
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