PendingSpaceX predictions, scored.
Mars, Starship, Starlink and the art of the aspirational launch window. Scorecard so far: 9 delivered · 9 missed · 19 still open.
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37 CLAIMS
37 shown
Pending
PendingSpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
PendingStarlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026
“Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.”
PendingSpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026
“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of …”
PendingSpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026
“@SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.”
PendingPhones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the ph…”
PendingStarship fully reusable
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 · moved 3×
PendingStarlink comes to American Airlines by 2027
“Starlink coming to @AmericanAir next year!”
Pending1 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 2027
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space A…”
PendingOrbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
PendingSpace becomes the most economically compelling place for AI within ~30 months
“Mark my words: in 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to pu…”
PendingFirst crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
PendingSpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030
“I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030”
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
Pending5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years
“Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world”
Pending1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
PendingFirst people on the Moon in less than 5 years
“I think we'll have landed our first people on the moon in less than 5 years. We might be able to put the fi…”
PendingSelf-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
CancelledUncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
MissedRecover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
MissedStarship ship caught by the tower in 2025
“Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster”
MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
MissedFour BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
Missed
MissedTwo BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
MissedHumans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
Delivered · LateStarship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
Delivered · LateStarship's next flight (V3 debut)
“Starship flies again next month”
goalposts: Mar 2026 → May 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateStarship V3 built & tested by end of 2025
“V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.”
PartialStarship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateStarlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · LateGlobal Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered · LateSpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
Delivered · LateFalcon Heavy launch 2013
“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch som…”
Delivered · Late80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
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