Pending
Pending
Grok Bot reaches wide enterprise deployment within a few weeks
“We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment with…”
SpaceX predictions, scored.
Mars, Starship, Starlink and the art of the aspirational launch window. Scorecard so far: 34 delivered · 15 missed or cancelled · 44 still open.
Looking at Starlink? Compare Mini vs Standard vs Roam — kit plus monthly as one number — all owner tools.
The Feed
93 CLAIMS
93 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Pending
Pending
Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024
“if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) → 2026-11 (a few months) → 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) → Nov 2026 · moved 5×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
Pending
Pending
Starlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026
“Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026
“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of …”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026
“@SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches $100 billion-plus ARR in December 2026
“As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX ~90% commercial revenue in 2026; Q4 government share under 5%
“Correct, roughly 90% of SpaceX’s revenue this year will be commercial. In Q4, our government revenue will b…”
Pending
Pending
Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024)
“Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for do…”
goalposts: Feb 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX brings about 200,000 GB300s online every month for the rest of 2026
“We're tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for every month [that remains] t…”
Pending
Pending
Starship ship reused in 2025
“So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.”
goalposts: 2025 → Mar 2027 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027)
“I'd be surprised if it's, if it's longer than about three years to be landing starships on the moon”
Pending
Pending
About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 2027
“So we need some critical mass of [V3] satellites, probably at least on the order of about 1,000, but probab…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX has a 440,000 Vera Rubin training cluster online by the end of Q2 2027
“We're also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,0…”
Pending
Pending
Starship flies at least once a day within a year
“We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing a…”
Pending
Pending
Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the ph…”
Pending
Pending
Starship fully reusable
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 · moved 6×
Pending
Pending
Pending
1 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 2027
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space A…”
Pending
Pending
Starship safe enough to fly people by end of 2027
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on …”
Pending
Pending
Space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 launches to orbit in Q4 2027
“SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to or…”
goalposts: 2027 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence in 2027
“we expect starship to ultimately next year, I think probably reach a weekly or twice weekly cadence”
goalposts: 2027 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
Elon gives one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America in 2027
“Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX brings about 13 GW of AI compute online by the end of 2027
“I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That wou…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027
“In a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of '27 is somewhere between…”
Pending
Pending
In-house SpaceX turbine casting pulls nat-gas turbines forward by up to 18 months
“By doing in-house casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate nat gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, w…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
Starlink has about 100 times today's bandwidth within about three years
“What I expect over time is not in the distant future, probably within three years, is that we will have abo…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Pending
Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
goalposts: 2028 → Feb 2029 → 2029 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030
“I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030”
Pending
Pending
30+ Starship launches per day in 2030
“We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.”
Pending
Pending
Starbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day
“Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights …”
Pending
Pending
5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years
“Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world”
Pending
Pending
1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
Pending
Pending
First people on the Moon in less than 5 years
“I think we'll have landed our first people on the moon in less than 5 years. We might be able to put the fi…”
goalposts: 2024 → Apr 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033
“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw”
Pending
Pending
Humans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: Apr 2021 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2024 → 2028 → 2029 → 2031 → Jan 2036 · moved 8×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX valuation exceeds $100 trillion within 10 years
“Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years”
Pending
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 window → 2028-29 window (Moonshots Dec 2025: 'a low probability shot... 29 then') · moved 3×
Missed
Missed
Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
Missed
Missed
Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024
“We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours p…”
Missed
Missed
Five or six more Starship flights in 2024
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
Missed
Missed
A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022
“And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.”
Missed
Missed
Starship launch capability at Cape 39A and an ocean platform by end of 2022
“hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the…”
Missed
Missed
Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 2021
“Speed will double to ~300Mb/s & latency will drop to ~20ms later this year”
Missed
Missed
2020 Hyperloop competition in a 10 km vacuum tunnel
“Next year's @Hyperloop competition will be in a 10km vacuum tunnel with a curve”
Missed
Missed
Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)
“Our plan is in basically one to two months to do the 20 kilometer or 65,000 foot flight with Starship Mark 1.”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019
“probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018
“And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.”
Missed
Missed
A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018
“probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)
“I'm pretty sure we'll serve fairing recovery in the next six months.”
Missed
Missed
Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016
“We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004
“Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → Feb 2022 → 2023 · moved 3×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Next Starship flight on September 22, 2026
“Next Starship flight on 9/22”
goalposts: Sep 2026 · moved 0×
Delivered
Delivered
Starlink V3 constellation starts deploying this month (by Sep 30, 2026)
“Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month.
Ultimately, it will deliver more than 100 tim…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days
“In 7 days, the first Starship launch to orbit will be carrying Starlink V3 satellites intended for operatio…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship's next flight (V3 debut)
“Starship flies again next month”
goalposts: 2025 → ~Mar 9 2026 (Jan 26: 'Starship launch in 6 weeks') → Mar 2026 → May 2026 → Apr 2026 · moved 4×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship V3 built & tested by end of 2025
“V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024
“we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
SpaceX brings the two long-stay ISS astronauts home in about four weeks
“I think it's about about four weeks to bring them back”
Delivered
Delivered
80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which…”
Delivered
Delivered
Dragon takes astronauts farther than anyone in 50 years, in 2024
“This year, the @SpaceX Dragon spaceship will take astronauts the furthest they've been from Earth in over h…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starlink Mini launches later in 2024
“And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
First orbital Starship stack ready to fly in a few weeks (Aug 2021)
“First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship launch attempt next month (March 2023)
“If remaining tests go well, we will attempt a Starship launch next month”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered
Delivered
SpaceX aims for 60 launches in 2022
“SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX building about a Raptor engine a day by 2020
“SpaceX engine production is gearing up to build about a Raptor a day by next year, so up to 365 engines per…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
goalposts: 2011 → Apr 2014 → 2015 → 2017 → 2018 → Sep 2019 · moved 5×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship update presentation in 'two weeks or so' (July 2019)
“Now that Hopper has flown, Starship update probably in two weeks or so.”
Partial
Partial
Starship short hop flights in the first half of 2019
“And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the f…”
Delivered
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon Heavy launches at the end of June 2019
“the next thing is probably the Falcon Heavy launch at the end of this month”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017)
“Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon Heavy launches next month (January 2018)
“Falcon Heavy to launch next month from Apollo 11 pad at the Cape. Will have double thrust of next largest r…”
goalposts: 2013 → 2016 → Sep 2017 → Jan 2018 · moved 3×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX unveils its new spacesuit by end of 2013
“New spacesuit almost done. Hoping to unveil by end of year.”
goalposts: 2013 → 2015 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
goalposts: Oct 2015 → 2016 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Mars transport architecture presented around the end of 2015
“The Mars transport system will be a completely new architecture. Am hoping to present that towards the end …”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon 9 first stage lands intact within a year (said Nov 2015)
“I think within the next year we'll be able to land the rocket intact”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 2014
“completing that certification this year”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Hyperloop design published in about four weeks (2012)
“Will publish something on the Hyperloop in about four weeks. Will forgo patents on the idea and just open s…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Dragon visits the space station for the first time in 2010
“And then next year we go to the space station for the first time.”
goalposts: 2010 → Jan 2012 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
First Dragon flies on Falcon 9 by end of 2009
“Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft f…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon 9 first launch later in 2009 from Cape Canaveral
“And then later this year we'll be launching our big rocket from Cape Canaveral.”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.