Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
SpaceX predictions, scored.
Mars, Starship, Starlink and the art of the aspirational launch window. Scorecard so far: 31 delivered · 51 missed · 42 still open.
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The Feed
124 CLAIMS
124 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
Pending
Pending
Pending
SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
Pending
Pending
Starlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026
“Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026
“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of …”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026
“@SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX catches the Ship with the tower on the next Starship flight
“Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower…”
goalposts: 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) → 2026-11 (a few months) → 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches $100 billion-plus ARR in December 2026
“As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX ~90% commercial revenue in 2026; Q4 government share under 5%
“Correct, roughly 90% of SpaceX’s revenue this year will be commercial. In Q4, our government revenue will b…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026
“And I think it's, I think, I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full re…”
Pending
Pending
First reflight of a Starship by early 2027
“First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next.”
Pending
Pending
Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027)
“I'd be surprised if it's, if it's longer than about three years to be landing starships on the moon”
Pending
Pending
About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 2027
“So we need some critical mass of [V3] satellites, probably at least on the order of about 1,000, but probab…”
Pending
Pending
Starship flies at least once a day within a year
“We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing a…”
Pending
Pending
Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the ph…”
Pending
Pending
Starship fully reusable
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 · moved 3×
Pending
Pending
Pending
1 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 2027
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space A…”
Pending
Pending
Starship safe enough to fly people by end of 2027
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on …”
Pending
Pending
Space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 launches to orbit in Q4 2027
“SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to or…”
Pending
Pending
Starship full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027
“I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027. …”
Pending
Pending
Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence in 2027
“we expect starship to ultimately next year, I think probably reach a weekly or twice weekly cadence”
Pending
Pending
In-house SpaceX turbine casting pulls nat-gas turbines forward by up to 18 months
“By doing in-house casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate nat gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, w…”
Pending
Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
Pending
Pending
About 20 Starships launch to Mars in the 2028-29 window
“So this is a tentative game plan here where we're hoping to achieve where we increase the cadence of flight…”
Pending
Pending
Space becomes the most economically compelling place for AI within ~30 months
“Mark my words: in 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to pu…”
Pending
Pending
People back on the Moon and uncrewed Starships on Mars within five years (by 2029)
“So taking, I think, I think we'll get people back to the moon, I should say within five years and we'll get…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Pending
Pending
Orbital compute is the only way to scale AI by 2029
“Orbital compute will be the only way to scale AI probably sometime in 2029 due to power availability& permi…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030
“I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030”
Pending
Pending
30+ Starship launches per day in 2030
“We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.”
Pending
Pending
Starbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day
“Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights …”
Pending
Pending
Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years
“Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world”
Pending
Pending
1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
Pending
Pending
First people on the Moon in less than 5 years
“I think we'll have landed our first people on the moon in less than 5 years. We might be able to put the fi…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033
“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw”
Pending
Pending
Humans reach Mars in 5 to 10 years (said 2026)
“Don't want to get complacent, but if civilization keeps advancing, humans will reach Mars in 5 to 10 years.”
Pending
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Uncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
goalposts: 2026 window → 2028-29 window (Moonshots Dec 2025: 'a low probability shot... 29 then') · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Missed
Missed
Missed
Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
Missed
Missed
Starship ship caught by the tower in 2025
“Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster”
Missed
Missed
Starship ship reused in 2025
“So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.”
Missed
Missed
Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demo in 2025
“next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to ship propellant transfer”
Missed
Missed
Starship V3 first launch at the end of 2025
“version 3 of Starship which we're aiming to launch for the first time at the end of this year”
Missed
Missed
Starship full reusability of booster and ship by 2025
“I think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year”
Missed
Missed
Humans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
Missed
Missed
Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
Missed
Missed
Missed
Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024
“We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours p…”
Missed
Missed
Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024
“if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year”
Missed
Missed
Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024
“we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year”
Missed
Missed
Five or six more Starship flights in 2024
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
Missed
Missed
Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024)
“Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for do…”
Missed
Missed
Starship reaches orbit in 2023
“I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit”
Missed
Missed
Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
Missed
Missed
A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022
“And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.”
Missed
Missed
Starship launch capability at Cape 39A and an ocean platform by end of 2022
“hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the…”
Missed
Missed
Starship orbital launch attempt in January or February 2022
“We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably mea…”
Missed
Missed
Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 2021
“Speed will double to ~300Mb/s & latency will drop to ~20ms later this year”
Missed
Missed
Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
Missed
Missed
2020 Hyperloop competition in a 10 km vacuum tunnel
“Next year's @Hyperloop competition will be in a 10km vacuum tunnel with a curve”
Missed
Missed
Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)
“Our plan is in basically one to two months to do the 20 kilometer or 65,000 foot flight with Starship Mark 1.”
Missed
Missed
Crew Dragon flies astronauts in summer 2019
“unless something goes wrong, I would think that we'll be flying hopefully this year. Yeah, I mean, this sum…”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019
“probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018
“And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.”
Missed
Missed
A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018
“probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)
“I'm pretty sure we'll serve fairing recovery in the next six months.”
Missed
Missed
Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016)
“And then, and then next year we'll be flying Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking …”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX flying NASA astronauts to the ISS in about two years (by 2017)
“in approximately two years, we'll be transporting NASA astronauts to the space station”
Missed
Missed
Falcon Heavy first launch in late summer 2017
“our expectation is probably a late summer launch”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017)
“Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX reflies a landed Falcon 9 booster in 2016
“So I think we'll end up re flying one of the subsequent boosters. ... I think probably before sometime next…”
Missed
Missed
Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016
“We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.”
Missed
Missed
Falcon Heavy launches by end of 2016 (Code 2016)
“So we want to start re flying them towards the end of summer and then hopefully by the end of this year we'…”
Missed
Missed
Dragon starts flying people by the end of 2016
“As for people, it’s quite likely by the end of 2016 we will start [flying them]”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX flies astronauts to the space station in 2015
“Then next year, if schedules hold, we'll be transporting astronauts to the space station for the first time.”
Missed
Missed
Mars transport architecture presented around the end of 2015
“The Mars transport system will be a completely new architecture. Am hoping to present that towards the end …”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX spacesuit design unveiled later in 2015
“Our spacesuit design is finally coming together and will also be unveiled later this year”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 2014
“completing that certification this year”
Missed
Missed
Dragon's space station launch around January 2012
“it looks like things will be more like January for the launch of the space station”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX's rocket services the ISS with astronauts and cargo starting in 2011
“starting in 2011, SpaceX's rocket will replace the space shuttle in servicing the space station with astron…”
Missed
Missed
Dragon visits the space station for the first time in 2010
“And then next year we go to the space station for the first time.”
Missed
Missed
First Dragon flies on Falcon 9 by end of 2009
“Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft f…”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 9 first launch later in 2009 from Cape Canaveral
“And then later this year we'll be launching our big rocket from Cape Canaveral.”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004
“Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March…”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 1 maiden launch as early as December 2003
“Musk says SpaceX's Falcon rocket could take off as early as December”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Starlink V3 constellation starts deploying this month (by Sep 30, 2026)
“Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month.
Ultimately, it will deliver more than 100 tim…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days
“In 7 days, the first Starship launch to orbit will be carrying Starlink V3 satellites intended for operatio…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starship Flight 14 aims to launch tomorrow morning (Sep 28, 2026)
“Starship Flight 14 aiming to launch tomorrow morning”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship's next flight (V3 debut)
“Starship flies again next month”
goalposts: ~Mar 9 2026 (Jan 26: 'Starship launch in 6 weeks') → Mar 2026 → May 2026 · moved 2×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship V3 built & tested by end of 2025
“V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon flies more than 150 times in 2025
“And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights!”
Delivered
Delivered
SpaceX brings the two long-stay ISS astronauts home in about four weeks
“I think it's about about four weeks to bring them back”
Delivered
Delivered
80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which…”
Delivered
Delivered
Dragon takes astronauts farther than anyone in 50 years, in 2024
“This year, the @SpaceX Dragon spaceship will take astronauts the furthest they've been from Earth in over h…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starlink Mini launches later in 2024
“And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
First orbital Starship stack ready to fly in a few weeks (Aug 2021)
“First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship launch attempt next month (March 2023)
“If remaining tests go well, we will attempt a Starship launch next month”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered
Delivered
SpaceX aims for 60 launches in 2022
“SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX building about a Raptor engine a day by 2020
“SpaceX engine production is gearing up to build about a Raptor a day by next year, so up to 365 engines per…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX launches NASA astronauts to the ISS in 2018
“Looking forward to launching @NASA astronauts to the International Space Station next year!”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship update presentation in 'two weeks or so' (July 2019)
“Now that Hopper has flown, Starship update probably in two weeks or so.”
Partial
Partial
Starship short hop flights in the first half of 2019
“And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the f…”
Delivered
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon Heavy launches at the end of June 2019
“the next thing is probably the Falcon Heavy launch at the end of this month”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon Heavy launch 2013
“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch som…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Falcon Heavy launches next month (January 2018)
“Falcon Heavy to launch next month from Apollo 11 pad at the Cape. Will have double thrust of next largest r…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX unveils its new spacesuit by end of 2013
“New spacesuit almost done. Hoping to unveil by end of year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon 9 first stage lands intact within a year (said Nov 2015)
“I think within the next year we'll be able to land the rocket intact”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Hyperloop design published in about four weeks (2012)
“Will publish something on the Hyperloop in about four weeks. Will forgo patents on the idea and just open s…”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon 1 reaches orbit within one to three more tries (after the third failure)
“It might take us one, two or three more tries, but we will”
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