twoweeks.lol is an independent tracker that scores every dated prediction Elon Musk makes against what actually happened, with a source for each one.
As of October 26, 2026, twoweeks.lol tracks 346 dated claims Elon Musk made in his own words, from 463 statements (a claim he repeated or re-dated counts once). 229 claims are resolved: 50 were delivered on time (22% of resolved), 77 delivered late, 16 only partly delivered, 75 missed and 11 cancelled. 116 claims are still pending and 1 disputed. He has moved a deadline 134 times. Among claims delivered late with a promised span of more than a month, the median took 1.9 times as long as promised; promises that never shipped are not in that number. Download the data.
346 of his predictions across Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, Neuralink, X and The Boring Company, back to 2011. Each one has the quote, the date he said it, the deadline, every time the deadline moved, and a verdict.
A short email, sent only on days a prediction hits, misses or moves its deadline. Subscribe here; no change, no email.
The whole board as JSON and CSV, plus an embeddable scoreboard, free under CC BY 4.0. Use it in articles, videos, papers or apps with a link back.
Things he said he'd do without a deadline, like the candy company and Tesla home HVAC, sit on a separate, ungraded list so they never skew the scoreboard.
Free calculators for Tesla and Starlink owners: battery health test, FSD buy vs subscribe, range, charging cost and more.
Hudson Labs' scorecard covers 151 Tesla predictions, assessed once, as of July 16, 2026. twoweeks.lol tracks 346 across every Musk company, plus his calls on AI and the economy.
The Tesorb tracker was last updated April 12, 2026, and promises a monthly review. Here the board is checked every day, overdue and near-deadline predictions first and the rest in rotation, and every page shows the date it was last checked.
A prediction gets on the board only if Musk said it himself: his posts, video of him speaking, his own writing, or earnings calls. No paraphrases, no "sources say".
When he restates a promise with a new date, it's logged as a goalpost move, not a fresh start. 134 are on the board so far, and lateness is measured from the first date he gave.
Every number on this site comes from one file anyone can download, under CC BY 4.0. You can check the math yourself.
A robot checks every day for new statements from Musk and for news that settles an open prediction. Each change lands on the prediction's timeline, in the RSS feed and, if it's real news, in the Daily Verdict. The rules for sources, verdicts and deadlines are below, applied the same way to every entry. Found a mistake? Send a fix or message @howardyhuang.
Every prediction on this site is tied to something Elon Musk actually said himself, on the record. We accept exactly four kinds of source:
Secondhand paraphrases, company PR, and "sources say" reporting don't qualify as the basis for an entry. News articles appear only as supporting evidence for outcomes (did the thing ship?), never as the source of the promise itself. Predictions we can't tie to his own words don't get published — they sit in quarantine until we find the tape.
A goalpost is counted each time Musk publicly restated the same promise with a new deadline. Every prediction page shows the full progression — original promise, every slip, and where it stands today.
This is where a tracker can quietly cheat, so here is the rule — applied the same way every time:
We report lateness two ways: the raw gap in days, and the Elon-Time multiplier (how many times the originally-promised duration it actually took) — because "two years late" means something very different on a six-month promise than on a ten-year one.
And a deliberate choice that cuts the other way: a prediction is only graded against itself. A late or even on-time delivery is still logged as late or on-time no matter how impressive the achievement — Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon are world-changing and years behind their promised dates, and both facts live on the same page. This is a scoreboard for what he said versus what happened, not a verdict on whether the thing was worth doing.
A robot scans every day: new statements from Musk, plus news that resolves pending predictions. Goalpost moved? Stance changed? Promise quietly shelved? It lands on the prediction's timeline and in the RSS feed, with the date it was last checked shown on every page. Corrections welcome — submit a prediction or a fix, or ping @howardyhuang.
Members can comment on any prediction. The bar is simple — argue the call, bring receipts, keep it human:
Most comments post instantly. A filter holds anything that trips the lawful/spam lines for a human to review, and any member can Report a comment — enough reports auto-hide it pending review. Repeat offenders get banned. It's the X model: open by default, moderated by exception.
Illustrations are AI-generated in a consistent retro-futurist style — fitting, for a site about futures that haven't arrived yet. They're illustrations, not photographs of real events.
Tesla and Starlink links are personal referral links. Tesla referrals currently include 3 months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) for first-time Tesla buyers. Starlink referrals give you and us the same reward after you have been subscribed for two months ($100 in the US under the terms as of Oct 7, 2026; your amount is shown at checkout; Starlink's referral help page). They cost you nothing extra and keep the lights on. They have zero effect on verdicts — as the 86 missed or cancelled predictions on the books suggest.
Built and maintained by Howard Huang, a growth marketer in Dallas–Fort Worth with 18 years in growth marketing and SEO. He started twoweeks.lol in June 2026 because a lot of news outlets seemed to report on Musk from feelings and emotions, not objective fact. Everyone has a spin on what Musk did, but almost no one links the direct source: his own words. twoweeks.lol is built to be as accurate as possible: Elon's direct words, plus all the context you need to understand what he really means. Find him on X and LinkedIn.
Independent fan project; not affiliated with or endorsed by Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Company, X, xAI, or Elon Musk. It's a scoreboard, not a hit piece: when he delivers, the stamp says so.
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