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Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Space predictions, scored.
Starships, launch windows, and satellites — where Elon Time meets orbital mechanics.
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106 CLAIMS
106 shown
Pending
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SpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
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Starlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026
“Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.”
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SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026
“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of …”
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SpaceX catches the Ship with the tower on the next Starship flight
“Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower…”
goalposts: 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) → 2026-11 (a few months) → 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) · moved 2×
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SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026
“And I think it's, I think, I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full re…”
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First reflight of a Starship by early 2027
“First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next.”
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Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027)
“I'd be surprised if it's, if it's longer than about three years to be landing starships on the moon”
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About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 2027
“So we need some critical mass of [V3] satellites, probably at least on the order of about 1,000, but probab…”
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Starship flies at least once a day within a year
“We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing a…”
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Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the ph…”
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Starship fully reusable
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 · moved 3×
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1 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 2027
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space A…”
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Starship safe enough to fly people by end of 2027
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on …”
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Starship full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027
“I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027. …”
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Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence in 2027
“we expect starship to ultimately next year, I think probably reach a weekly or twice weekly cadence”
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About 20 Starships launch to Mars in the 2028-29 window
“So this is a tentative game plan here where we're hoping to achieve where we increase the cadence of flight…”
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Space becomes the most economically compelling place for AI within ~30 months
“Mark my words: in 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to pu…”
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People back on the Moon and uncrewed Starships on Mars within five years (by 2029)
“So taking, I think, I think we'll get people back to the moon, I should say within five years and we'll get…”
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30+ Starship launches per day in 2030
“We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.”
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Starbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day
“Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights …”
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5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years
“Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world”
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1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
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First people on the Moon in less than 5 years
“I think we'll have landed our first people on the moon in less than 5 years. We might be able to put the fi…”
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Humans reach Mars in 5 to 10 years (said 2026)
“Don't want to get complacent, but if civilization keeps advancing, humans will reach Mars in 5 to 10 years.”
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Uncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
goalposts: 2026 window → 2028-29 window (Moonshots Dec 2025: 'a low probability shot... 29 then') · moved 1×
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Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
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Starship ship caught by the tower in 2025
“Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster”
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Starship ship reused in 2025
“So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.”
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Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demo in 2025
“next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to ship propellant transfer”
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Starship V3 first launch at the end of 2025
“version 3 of Starship which we're aiming to launch for the first time at the end of this year”
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Starship full reusability of booster and ship by 2025
“I think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year”
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Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
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Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024
“We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours p…”
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Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024
“if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year”
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Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024
“we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year”
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Five or six more Starship flights in 2024
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
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Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024)
“Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for do…”
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Starship reaches orbit in 2023
“I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit”
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Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
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A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022
“And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.”
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Starship launch capability at Cape 39A and an ocean platform by end of 2022
“hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the…”
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Starship orbital launch attempt in January or February 2022
“We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably mea…”
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Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 2021
“Speed will double to ~300Mb/s & latency will drop to ~20ms later this year”
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Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
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Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)
“Our plan is in basically one to two months to do the 20 kilometer or 65,000 foot flight with Starship Mark 1.”
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Crew Dragon flies astronauts in summer 2019
“unless something goes wrong, I would think that we'll be flying hopefully this year. Yeah, I mean, this sum…”
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SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019
“probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days”
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Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
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SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018
“And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.”
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A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018
“probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours”
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SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)
“I'm pretty sure we'll serve fairing recovery in the next six months.”
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Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016)
“And then, and then next year we'll be flying Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking …”
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SpaceX flying NASA astronauts to the ISS in about two years (by 2017)
“in approximately two years, we'll be transporting NASA astronauts to the space station”
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Falcon Heavy first launch in late summer 2017
“our expectation is probably a late summer launch”
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Falcon 9 Block 5 first flight 6–8 months after Oct 2016 (by mid-2017)
“Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months”
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SpaceX reflies a landed Falcon 9 booster in 2016
“So I think we'll end up re flying one of the subsequent boosters. ... I think probably before sometime next…”
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Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016
“We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.”
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Falcon Heavy launches by end of 2016 (Code 2016)
“So we want to start re flying them towards the end of summer and then hopefully by the end of this year we'…”
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Dragon starts flying people by the end of 2016
“As for people, it’s quite likely by the end of 2016 we will start [flying them]”
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SpaceX flies astronauts to the space station in 2015
“Then next year, if schedules hold, we'll be transporting astronauts to the space station for the first time.”
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Mars transport architecture presented around the end of 2015
“The Mars transport system will be a completely new architecture. Am hoping to present that towards the end …”
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SpaceX spacesuit design unveiled later in 2015
“Our spacesuit design is finally coming together and will also be unveiled later this year”
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Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 2014
“completing that certification this year”
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Dragon's space station launch around January 2012
“it looks like things will be more like January for the launch of the space station”
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SpaceX's rocket services the ISS with astronauts and cargo starting in 2011
“starting in 2011, SpaceX's rocket will replace the space shuttle in servicing the space station with astron…”
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Dragon visits the space station for the first time in 2010
“And then next year we go to the space station for the first time.”
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First Dragon flies on Falcon 9 by end of 2009
“Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft f…”
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Falcon 9 first launch later in 2009 from Cape Canaveral
“And then later this year we'll be launching our big rocket from Cape Canaveral.”
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Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004
“Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March…”
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Falcon 1 maiden launch as early as December 2003
“Musk says SpaceX's Falcon rocket could take off as early as December”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Starlink V3 constellation starts deploying this month (by Sep 30, 2026)
“Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month.
Ultimately, it will deliver more than 100 tim…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days
“In 7 days, the first Starship launch to orbit will be carrying Starlink V3 satellites intended for operatio…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starship Flight 14 aims to launch tomorrow morning (Sep 28, 2026)
“Starship Flight 14 aiming to launch tomorrow morning”
Delivered · Late
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Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
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Starship's next flight (V3 debut)
“Starship flies again next month”
goalposts: ~Mar 9 2026 (Jan 26: 'Starship launch in 6 weeks') → Mar 2026 → May 2026 · moved 2×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starship V3 built & tested by end of 2025
“V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon flies more than 150 times in 2025
“And next year, Falcon is aiming for >150 flights!”
Delivered
Delivered
SpaceX brings the two long-stay ISS astronauts home in about four weeks
“I think it's about about four weeks to bring them back”
Delivered
Delivered
80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which…”
Delivered
Delivered
Dragon takes astronauts farther than anyone in 50 years, in 2024
“This year, the @SpaceX Dragon spaceship will take astronauts the furthest they've been from Earth in over h…”
Delivered
Delivered
Starlink Mini launches later in 2024
“And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · Late
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First orbital Starship stack ready to fly in a few weeks (Aug 2021)
“First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval”
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Starship launch attempt next month (March 2023)
“If remaining tests go well, we will attempt a Starship launch next month”
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Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered
Delivered
SpaceX aims for 60 launches in 2022
“SpaceX Falcon team is making excellent progress – aiming for 60 launches this year!”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX building about a Raptor engine a day by 2020
“SpaceX engine production is gearing up to build about a Raptor a day by next year, so up to 365 engines per…”
Delivered · Late
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SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
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SpaceX launches NASA astronauts to the ISS in 2018
“Looking forward to launching @NASA astronauts to the International Space Station next year!”
Delivered · Late
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Starship update presentation in 'two weeks or so' (July 2019)
“Now that Hopper has flown, Starship update probably in two weeks or so.”
Partial
Partial
Starship short hop flights in the first half of 2019
“And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the f…”
Delivered
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon Heavy launches at the end of June 2019
“the next thing is probably the Falcon Heavy launch at the end of this month”
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Falcon Heavy launch 2013
“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch som…”
Delivered · Late
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Falcon Heavy launches next month (January 2018)
“Falcon Heavy to launch next month from Apollo 11 pad at the Cape. Will have double thrust of next largest r…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
SpaceX unveils its new spacesuit by end of 2013
“New spacesuit almost done. Hoping to unveil by end of year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon 9 first stage lands intact within a year (said Nov 2015)
“I think within the next year we'll be able to land the rocket intact”
Delivered
Delivered
Falcon 1 reaches orbit within one to three more tries (after the third failure)
“It might take us one, two or three more tries, but we will”
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