Pending
Pending
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Self-Driving predictions, scored.
Full Self-Driving has been 'next year' since 2014. The complete robotaxi saga.
Curious what FSD actually costs? Subscription vs legacy purchase as one all-in number — more owner tools.
The Feed
40 CLAIMS
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Pending
Pending
Pending
Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
Pending
Pending
FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
Pending
Pending
Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
goalposts: no date → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
Hundreds of thousands of self-driving Teslas in the US by end of 2026
“But my prediction is that probably by the end of next year we will have probably hundreds of thousands, if …”
Pending
Pending
Self-driving working on the Tesla Semi by end of 2026 or early 2027
“We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi, probably around the end of this year or early next…”
Pending
Pending
EU-wide FSD approval by the end of Q1 2027
“We are now approved in many countries in Europe, and we are hoping for an EU-wide approval. It is hard to p…”
Pending
Pending
AI5 chip production 2026-2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible…”
goalposts: 2027 → Jun 2027 → Apr 2027 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)
“Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully aut…”
goalposts: May 2022 → Jul 2027 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Half of all miles driven are autonomous in five years (by 2030)
“In five years, probably 50% of all miles driven will be autonomous.”
Missed
Missed
Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
Missed
Missed
Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
goalposts: Oct 2020 → 2018 → Oct 2018 → Jun 2018 → Apr 2019 → 2019 → 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2025 · moved 12×
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi in 8–10 metro areas by end of 2025
“And then we do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.”
Missed
Missed
New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Missed
Missed
FSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
Missed
Missed
HW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
Missed
Missed
FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 2022
“We're hopeful to be able to, I think from a technical standpoint FSD Beta should be, should be possible to …”
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Missed
Missed
Summon your Tesla from across the country in ~2 years
“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and th…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Autonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
goalposts: 2020 → Jun 2025 → 2025 · moved 2×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta in Europe this summer (2022)
“FSD Beta should be available in Europe for LHD this summer, RHD a few months later. These dates depend on r…”
goalposts: Sep 2022 → Feb 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
goalposts: 2026 → Jun 2026 · moved 1×
Partial
Partial
LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Partial
Partial
Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2025 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD update: step-change for rare conditions
“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions”
Delivered
Delivered
Cars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Delivered
Delivered
First autonomous factory-to-customer delivery
“Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks (Nov 2018)
“Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars ma…”
goalposts: Dec 2018 → Sep 2023 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Next Tesla self-driving chip (HW4) in about two years
“We don't want to talk too much about the next-generation chip, but it'll be at least, let's say, three time…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta wide release by end of 2020
“And so we put it out there last night, and then we'll see how it goes, and then probably release it to more…”
goalposts: 2020 → Nov 2022 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta V9 and the download button next month (April 2021)
“Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limite…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
Partial
Partial
FSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
Partial
Partial
First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls within a year (2014)
“I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists witho…”
goalposts: Jun 2015 → Oct 2015 · moved 1×
Disputed
Disputed
FSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
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