Pending
Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
Self-Driving predictions, scored.
Full Self-Driving has been 'next year' since 2014. The complete robotaxi saga.
The Feed
43 CLAIMSPending
Pending
Robotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United …”
Pending
Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
Pending
FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
Pending
AI5 chip production 2026-2027
“AI5 will begin sample and limited production in 2026, with high-volume manufacturing expected in 2027.”
Missed
FSD approval in Europe (and maybe China) by February 2026
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a simi…”
Missed
500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
Missed
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
Missed
Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
Missed
FSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
Missed
HW3 sufficient for FSD
“April 22nd, 2019. Elon Musk mentioned that all Tesla vehicles had the hardware necessary for Full Self Driv…”
Missed
Tesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
Missed
'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
Missed
Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
Missed
Autonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
Missed
Level 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
Missed
Robotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
Missed
FSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
Missed
Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed
FSD feature complete in a few months
“It's looking like we might be feature-complete in a few months. The feature-complete just means like it has…”
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Missed
Full Self-Driving feature complete by end of 2019
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
Missed
Autonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Missed
First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
Missed
LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
Missed
Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
Delivered · Late
Driverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
Partial
Cybercab mass production Q2 2026
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”
Delivered
Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
Partial
Driverless robotaxis in 3 weeks (from Dec 2025)
“There will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger sea…”
Partial
Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
Delivered · Late
New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Delivered
Cars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Partial
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Delivered
FSD wide release Nov 2022
“Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta is now available to anyone in North America who requests it from the car scree…”
Delivered · Late
FSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
Disputed
FSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
Disputed
Autopilot 40% safer
“Report highlight: “The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Auto…”
Disputed
Buying non-Tesla is like buying a horse
“It is financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla. If you buy a car that does not have the hardwa…”
Disputed
LiDAR is a fool's errand
“LiDAR is a fool's errand. Anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed.”
/// The Daily Verdict
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