/// THE ELON MUSK PREDICTION TRACKER

Everything is "two weeks" away. We started counting.

151 predictions from Elon Musk's own tweets, interviews and earnings calls — scored against reality, with receipts. 53 missed · 45 delivered · 25 goalposts moved. A robot re-checks every claim daily.

AI-generated illustration of Elon Musk checking a countdown clock in a retro-futuristic spaceport
51
Still Waiting
53
Missed
45
Delivered
25
Goalposts Moved
×2.1
Elon-Time Multiplier

The Feed

EVERY CLAIM CITED TO HIS OWN WORDS
151 shown

Starship fully reusable

“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 20262027 · moved 1×
called SEP 2019556 days left

X Money launches soon

“𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.”
goalposts: 20252026 · moved 1×
called NOV 20250.2 years late

5,000 Optimus robots in 2025

“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
called JAN 2025174 days past due

HW3 sufficient for FSD

“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
called APR 2019539 days past due

Humans on Mars

“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 20242026 · moved 1×
called JUN 2016539 days past due

X becomes the everything app

“𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)”
goalposts: 202320242025 · moved 1×
called NOV 2025191 days left

Grok 5 released before end of 2025

“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 20252026 · moved 1×
called AUG 2025174 days past due

Grok 3 by end of 2024

“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
called JUL 202448 days late

Grok 2 comes out in August 2024

“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
called JUL 2024on time

Starship reaches orbit

“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 202020212022 · moved 2×
called SEP 20191.2 years late

Cybertruck volume production in 2022

“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 20222023late 2023 · moved 2×
called JAN 20210.9 years late

Semi 500 mile range

“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
called NOV 2017on time

Optimus under $20000

“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
called SEP 20221,652 days left

Optimus prototype by 2022

“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
called AUG 2021on time

FSD ‘feature complete’

“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 20192020 · moved 1×
called OCT 20192,184 days past due

Falcon Heavy launch 2013

“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch som…”
called APR 20114.1 years late

Uncrewed Mars landing 2018

“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
called APR 20162,731 days past due

Hall of Records

Most Goalposts Moved
The reigning champion of the rolling deadline.
Tesla Scorecard
32 delivered · 38 missed
28 still on the clock, counting since 2013. Full record →
Longest Outstanding
Est. 2013, still open. The math of Elon Time →
/// The Daily Verdict
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