Pending1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
/// THE ELON MUSK PREDICTION TRACKER
Everything is "two weeks" away. We started counting.
223 predictions from Elon Musk's own tweets, interviews and earnings calls — scored against reality, with receipts. 42 missed · 8 cancelled · 20 on time · 32 late · 20 partial · 28 goalposts moved. A robot works the list every day — hunting new promises, resolving deadlines that have passed, and re-verifying a rotating batch. Every page shows the date it was last verified.
100
Still Waiting
50
Missed
72
Delivered
28
Goalposts Moved
×2.1
Elon-Time Multiplier
Resolving soon
3 DEADLINES INSIDE 45 DAYS1 daySpaceX
Next Starship flight on September 22, 2026
DUE SEP 2026
7 daysSpaceX
Starship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days
DUE SEP 2026
9 daysTesla
Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
DUE SEP 2026
Changed recently
THE DAILY VERDICT →GoalpostNext Starship flight on September 22, 20262026-09-18UpdatedGrok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026)2026-09-17GoalpostSpaceX catches the Ship with the tower on the next Starship flight2026-09-15
Browse the board
Self-DrivingRobotsSpaceAINeuralink & HealthCars & EnergyBusiness & MoneyTunnels & TransportFuture of HumanityPolitics & Economy
Owner tools
FREE · NO ACCOUNT FOR MOSTStarlink Mini
Mini vs Standard vs Roam, hardware and bill as one number. Compare kits →
Tesla home charger
Wall Connector vs Mobile vs third-party, hardware plus install. Price a charger →
Battery health
What your pack is actually holding, from the car. Run the test →
Battery replacement
Reported pack quotes by model, plus whether your 8-year warranty still covers you. Check cost →
Elon Musk Predictions
EVERY CLAIM CITED TO HIS OWN WORDS
223 shown
Pending
PendingSelf-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
PendingWorking will be optional in less than 20 years
“My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby…”
PendingEconomy 10x bigger in 10 years
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfor…”
Pending
PendingAI+robots more than double the global economy in under 10 years
“AI+robots will more than double the global economy in less than 10 years”
PendingWell over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
Pending
Pending
PendingSuperhuman abilities via Neuralink
“If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolute…”
PendingTesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
PendingSpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033
“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw”
PendingGlobal economy doubles in 5–7 years
“I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.”
PendingSolar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
Pending5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years
“Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world”
Pending1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
PendingFirst people on the Moon in less than 5 years
“I think we'll have landed our first people on the moon in less than 5 years. We might be able to put the fi…”
PendingAI exceeds the sum of all human intelligence in ~5 years
“I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about, in around five years.”
PendingAt least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years
“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”
Pending20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
PendingOptimus $20-30k price point
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”
PendingOptimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
PendingRestore full body functionality
“We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.”
PendingOptimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
PendingOptimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
PendingThousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030
“If all goes well, there will be hundreds of people with Neuralinks within a few years, maybe tens of thousa…”
PendingAI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
PendingSpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030
“I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030”
Pending30+ Starship launches per day in 2030
“We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.”
PendingStarbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day
“Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights …”
PendingUS double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth,…”
PendingFirst crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
PendingOrbital compute is the only way to scale AI by 2029
“Orbital compute will be the only way to scale AI probably sometime in 2029 due to power availability& permi…”
PendingSpace becomes the most economically compelling place for AI within ~30 months
“Mark my words: in 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to pu…”
Pending
PendingTesla Roadster enters production
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 → 2028 · moved 7×
PendingOrbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
PendingUS output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation
“In 3 years or less, my guess is goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth in about 3 years.…”
PendingOver 30k high-paying Tesla jobs in Austin by 2028
“Probably over 30k people working in high-paying jobs at Tesla HQ & manufacturing in Austin by 2028!”
PendingAI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
goalposts: undated (Jun 16 2026 tweet) → 2028-03-01 (G20: next year / 12–18 months) · moved 1×
PendingIn-house SpaceX turbine casting pulls nat-gas turbines forward by up to 18 months
“By doing in-house casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate nat gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, w…”
PendingStarship fully reusable
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 · moved 3×
PendingAI5 chip production 2026-2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible…”
PendingRoadster 0-60 in under 1 second
“0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part”
PendingRoadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
PendingRoadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Pending
PendingTerafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
PendingStarlink comes to American Airlines by 2027
“Starlink coming to @AmericanAir next year!”
PendingSelling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to th…”
Pending1 gigawatt/year of space-based AI compute by end of 2027
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space A…”
PendingStarship safe enough to fly people by end of 2027
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on …”
PendingSpace-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 launches to orbit in Q4 2027
“SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to or…”
PendingAI does any digital work at superhuman level by end of 2027
“AI will be able to do anything digital (that doesn’t require shaping atoms) at a superhuman level by the en…”
Pending~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027
“Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder…”
PendingStarship full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027
“I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027. …”
PendingTeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 2027
“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”
PendingAI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year to ~4%
“My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.”
PendingPhones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 years
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the ph…”
PendingStarship flies at least once a day within a year
“We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing a…”
PendingTesla AI5 chip into production by ~Q2 2027
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'l…”
PendingSelf-driving working on the Tesla Semi by end of 2026 or early 2027
“We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi, probably around the end of this year or early next…”
PendingFirst reflight of a Starship by early 2027
“First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next.”
PendingOwner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
PendingOptimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
CancelledUncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
PendingOptimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start tow…”
PendingGrok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
PendingGreat AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
PendingX becomes the everything app
“𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)”
PendingBlindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026
“Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year”
PendingNeuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon
“It won't be long before a Neuralink recipient can beat most and eventually all humans at fast reaction vide…”
PendingNeuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026
“Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, …”
Pending
Pending
PendingRobotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United …”
PendingRobotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
PendingFSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
DeliveredCybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
Pending
PendingA new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026
“Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.”
PendingxAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026
“We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.”
PendingSpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
PendingxAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026
“xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need …”
PendingNext-gen Neuralink implant (3X capability) ready by end of 2026
“The next generation Neuralink cybernetic augment with 3X capability will be ready later this year.”
PendingGrokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026
“Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.”
PendingStarlink V3 (20kW) launched at scale by Q4 2026
“Starlink V3 will be 20kW and launched at scale around Q4 next year.”
PendingSpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026
“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of …”
DeliveredNew Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026
“This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.”
PendingSpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026
“@SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.”
PendingGrok Imagine makes a full-length Odyssey movie by end of 2026
“Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accur…”
PendingSpaceX catches the Ship with the tower on the next Starship flight
“Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower…”
goalposts: 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) → 2026-11 (a few months) → 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) · moved 2×
PendingSpaceX reaches $100 billion-plus ARR in December 2026
“As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.”
Pending
PendingTalk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
PendingMassive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++…”
PendingStarlink V3 constellation starts deploying this month (by Sep 30, 2026)
“Starlink V3 constellation starts being deployed this month.
Ultimately, it will deliver more than 100 tim…”
PendingStarship to orbit with operational Starlink V3 sats in 7 days
“In 7 days, the first Starship launch to orbit will be carrying Starlink V3 satellites intended for operatio…”
Pending
MissedGrok 4.8 finishes training this week (by Sep 20, 2026)
“Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and…”
Delivered · LateGrok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026)
“Grok 4.7 comes out in 10 days”
goalposts: 2026-09-11 (in 10 days) → 2026-09-16 (a few more days) · moved 1×
MissedOptimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
Delivered · Late
MissedOptimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
DeliveredGrok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 2026
“@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more …”
PartialCybercab mass production Q2 2026
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”
DeliveredModel S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
MissedSecurity-test and open-source all of X Chat
“In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code”
Delivered
Delivered · LateStarship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
Missed
Delivered · LateStarship's next flight (V3 debut)
“Starship flies again next month”
goalposts: Mar 2026 → May 2026 · moved 1×
PartialGrok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4
“Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes …”
Delivered · LateSupervised FSD approval in Europe by Feb 2026
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a simi…”
PartialMajor Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks
“Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.”
PartialOpen-source the entire X codebase
“hopefully by next month, we should be able to open source literally all of the @X codebase. Nothing left ou…”
Missed500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
MissedRobotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
MissedQuadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”
Missed1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Missed5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
DisputedFSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
PartialBanish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
Delivered · LateDriverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateX Money launches soon
“𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
MissedAI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
MissedGenuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
PartialUnsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
MissedRecover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
PartialGrok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
MissedAustin robotaxi fleet roughly doubles
“The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month”
Delivered · LateStarship V3 built & tested by end of 2025
“V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.”
Delivered · LateGrok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025
“Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!”
Cancelled
MissedStarship ship caught by the tower in 2025
“Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster”
MissedA 'legion' of Optimus robots in 2025
“There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year.”
Delivered · LateX algorithm 'purely AI' by November 2025
“The algorithm will be purely AI by November, with significant progress along the way.”
MissedNew FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Delivered · LateFSD update: step-change for rare conditions
“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions”
DeliveredFirst autonomous factory-to-customer delivery
“Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.”
DeliveredCars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Delivered · Late
DeliveredTesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 perce…”
MissedFSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
PartialTesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
MissedHW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
PartialOptimus performing factory tasks 2024
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”
MissedFour BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
Delivered · LateGrok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
Missed
DeliveredGrok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered
MissedOptimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Delivered · LateStarlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
MissedCybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
DeliveredCybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Delivered · Late
Missed$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Delivered · LateFirst human Neuralink implant
“We hope to have this aspirationally in a human patient before the end of next year.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → 2023 · moved 2×
Delivered · LateCreator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)
“Starting today, Twitter will share ad revenue with creators for ads that appear in their reply threads”
Delivered · LateCybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
PartialStarship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 · moved 1×
MissedTesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
DeliveredSemi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
DeliveredOptimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
Partial
MissedTwo BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
Missed'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
DeliveredFSD Beta wide release (Nov 2022)
“The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go…”
Cancelled
Delivered · LateGlobal Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered · LateGiga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Partial4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
CancelledChicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than thre…”
PartialCars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
MissedHumans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
Delivered · LateFSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
PartialAutonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
MissedLevel 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
PartialRobotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
MissedFSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
MissedLA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”
MissedRobotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
PartialFSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
MissedClose to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Missed1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Delivered · LateTesla Semi production in 2019
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”
MissedYear of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Delivered · Late500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
DeliveredShanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
MissedCybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
Delivered · LateTesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”
CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
MissedAutonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Cancelled'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
DeliveredTesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018
“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will b…”
PartialFirst full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
DeliveredModel 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
PartialLA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Delivered · LateModel 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
DeliveredTesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered · LateTesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
DeliveredAustralia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
Delivered · Late80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
Partial$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Delivered · LateModel X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Delivered · LateSpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
Delivered · LateFalcon Heavy launch 2013
“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch som…”
CancelledBattery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
Delivered · LateDrive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
DeliveredModel S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
PendingFremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Opt…”
MissedSolar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Cancelled'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
MissedAdd your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
PendingA legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
PendingTerafab will be 50× the size of the Pentagon when complete
“Terafab will be 50 times the size of the Pentagon when complete”
Nothing matches those filters.
Hall of Records
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.