PendingEconomy 10x bigger in 10 years
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfor…”
/// THE ELON MUSK PREDICTION TRACKER
Everything is "two weeks" away. We started counting.
151 predictions from Elon Musk's own tweets, interviews and earnings calls — scored against reality, with receipts. 53 missed · 45 delivered · 25 goalposts moved. A robot re-checks every claim daily.
51
Still Waiting
53
Missed
45
Delivered
25
Goalposts Moved
×2.1
Elon-Time Multiplier
The Feed
EVERY CLAIM CITED TO HIS OWN WORDSPending
PendingTalk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
MissedRecover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
PendingStarship fully reusable
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy…”
goalposts: 2026 → 2027 · moved 1×
PendingA legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
Pending
PendingAI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
Pending5× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 years
“Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world”
Pending1 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 years
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
MissedNew FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
MissedLA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
PartialX Money launches soon
“𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Missed500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
PartialCybercab mass production Q2 2026
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”
Delivered · LateDriverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
PartialBanish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
MissedRobotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
Missed5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
Missed1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
MissedQuadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”
MissedHW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateStarship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
DeliveredModel S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
PartialTesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 → 2022 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 3×
PartialCars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
PendingOptimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
PendingFSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
PendingRobotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
Delivered · LateSupervised FSD approval in Europe by Feb 2026
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a simi…”
PendingTerafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
DeliveredCybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
PendingRobotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United …”
PendingOptimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
PendingFremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Opt…”
Pending
Pending
PendingAI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
Missed
Pending
PendingNeuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026
“Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, …”
PendingUS double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth,…”
PendingOrbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
PendingX becomes the everything app
“𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)”
goalposts: 2023 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 1×
PendingAI5 chip production 2026-2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible…”
PendingNeuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon
“It won't be long before a Neuralink recipient can beat most and eventually all humans at fast reaction vide…”
PendingOptimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start tow…”
PendingGreat AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
PendingGrok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
PendingBlindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026
“Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year”
Pending
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
PendingOwner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
DeliveredCars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Partial
PendingSuperhuman abilities via Neuralink
“If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolute…”
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 → 2029 · moved 2×
Delivered · LateGrok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
PendingOptimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
MissedUnsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
PendingOptimus $20-30k price point
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”
Delivered · Late
PendingOptimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
DeliveredOptimus performing factory tasks 2024
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”
CancelledUncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
PendingThousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030
“If all goes well, there will be hundreds of people with Neuralinks within a few years, maybe tens of thousa…”
DeliveredGrok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
MissedGenuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
PendingOptimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
Pending
PendingTesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
Delivered
PartialStarship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 · moved 2×
MissedAI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
Delivered · Late
PendingRoadster 0-60 in under 1 second
“0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part”
Delivered · LateFirst human Neuralink implant
“We hope to have this aspirationally in a human patient before the end of next year.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2023 · moved 2×
Delivered · LateStarlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · LateCybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
DeliveredCybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
DisputedFSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
Delivered · LateCreator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)
“Starting today, Twitter will share ad revenue with creators for ads that appear in their reply threads”
Delivered · LateGlobal Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
DeliveredSemi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Delivered · LateTesla Semi production in 2019
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”
PendingRestore full body functionality
“We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.”
DeliveredFSD Beta wide release (Nov 2022)
“The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go…”
PendingOptimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
DeliveredOptimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
DisputedCybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
MissedOptimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Delivered · LateGiga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Missed'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
Missed
Missed
Delivered · LateFSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
DeliveredTesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 perce…”
PendingSelf-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Missed4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Missed$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Pending20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
MissedLevel 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
Delivered · LateSpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
MissedFSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
MissedRobotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
MissedClose to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
MissedTesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
DeliveredShanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
MissedCybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
Missed
MissedFSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
MissedFSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateTesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”
MissedRobotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
MissedAutonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
Missed1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
MissedYear of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
DeliveredTesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018
“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will b…”
Delivered · LateModel 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
DeliveredModel 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
CancelledChicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than thre…”
MissedFirst full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
PendingRoadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Delivered · LateFalcon Heavy launch 2013
“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch som…”
DeliveredAustralia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
PendingRoadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
PendingTesla Roadster enters production
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 · moved 7×
DeliveredTesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
MissedFour BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
MissedTwo BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
Delivered · Late80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
MissedSolar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
PendingFirst crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Pending1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
Missed'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
MissedAdd your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
MissedTesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
Partial$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
MissedAutonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Missed'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
Missed90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
MissedModel X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Delivered · LateDrive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
CancelledLA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”
MissedBattery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
PendingSolar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
DeliveredModel S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
MissedHumans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
Hall of Records
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
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