Pending
Pending
Solar is the single largest source of electricity by mid-century
“solar power will be the single largest source of electricity generation by the midpoint of the century”
Did Elon deliver? Every Elon Musk prediction, tracked.
144delivered
85missed or cancelled
119waiting
349 predictions from Elon Musk's own tweets, interviews and earnings calls (466 statements: when he repeats a promise or moves its date, it stays one prediction with a timeline) — scored against reality, with receipts. 73 missed · 12 cancelled · 50 on time · 78 late · 16 partial · 134 goalposts moved.
How often does Elon Musk meet his deadlines? 22% of the time: 50 of 229 resolved claims were delivered on time, as of November 5, 2026. Claims that shipped late took a median 1.9 times as long as promised.
A robot works the list every day — hunting new promises, resolving deadlines that have passed, and re-verifying a rotating batch. Every page shows the date it was last verified.
Get one email when any answer changes:
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The score
144delivered
85missed or cancelled
119waiting
×1.9Elon-time
50 on time78 late16 partial73 missed12 cancelled119 waiting
Resolving soon
3 DEADLINES INSIDE 45 DAYSStandings
| Company | Tracked | Delivered | Missed or cancelled | Waiting | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 173 | 86 | 51 | 36 | 63% |
| SpaceX | 94 | 34 | 15 | 45 | 69% |
| xAI | 36 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 74% |
| General | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 17% |
| Neuralink | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25% |
| X | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 70% |
| Boring Company | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25% |
Changed recently
THE DAILY VERDICT →The numbers
As of November 5, 2026, twoweeks.lol tracks 349 dated claims Elon Musk made in his own words, from 466 statements (a claim he repeated or re-dated counts once). 229 claims are resolved: 50 were delivered on time (22% of resolved), 78 delivered late, 16 only partly delivered, 73 missed and 12 cancelled. 119 claims are still pending and 1 disputed. He has moved a deadline 134 times. Among claims delivered late with a promised span of more than a month, the median took 1.9 times as long as promised; promises that never shipped are not in that number. Download the data.
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Elon Musk Predictions
EVERY CLAIM CITED TO HIS OWN WORDSPending
Pending
Pending
At least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040
“If you say like 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. So on the order of 10 …”
Pending
Pending
Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
Pending
Pending
AI drives 90% of all distance driven within about 10 years (by 2036)
“probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self driving car”
Pending
Pending
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
Pending
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX valuation exceeds $100 trillion within 10 years
“Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years”
Pending
Pending
Humans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: Apr 2021 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2024 → 2028 → 2029 → 2031 → Jan 2036 · moved 8×
Pending
Pending
SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033
“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw”
Pending
Pending
Pending
AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
goalposts: 2030 → Jul 2031 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
AI will beat all fields by end of 2027 or 2028 latest
“AI will beat all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest.”
Pending
Pending
AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
goalposts: undated (Jun 16 2026 tweet) → 2028-03-01 (G20: next year / 12–18 months) · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
AI does any digital work at superhuman level by end of 2027
“AI will be able to do anything digital (that doesn’t require shaping atoms) at a superhuman level by the en…”
Pending
Pending
Working will be optional in less than 20 years
“My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby…”
Pending
Pending
Economy 10x bigger in 10 years
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfor…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
AI+robots more than double the global economy in under 10 years
“AI+robots will more than double the global economy in less than 10 years”
Pending
Pending
Global economy doubles in 5–7 years
“I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.”
Pending
Pending
Superhuman abilities via Neuralink
“If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolute…”
Pending
Pending
Restore full body functionality
“We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.”
Pending
Pending
Thousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030
“If all goes well, there will be hundreds of people with Neuralinks within a few years, maybe tens of thousa…”
Pending
Pending
Blindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026
“Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year”
Pending
Pending
Neuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon
“It won't be long before a Neuralink recipient can beat most and eventually all humans at fast reaction vide…”
Pending
Pending
X becomes the everything app
“𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)”
Missed
Missed
Security-test and open-source all of X Chat
“In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code”
Partial
Partial
Open-source the entire X codebase
“hopefully by next month, we should be able to open source literally all of the @X codebase. Nothing left ou…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
X algorithm 'purely AI' by November 2025
“The algorithm will be purely AI by November, with significant progress along the way.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
X Money launches soon
“𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.”
goalposts: Jun 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
Cancelled
Cancelled
Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than thre…”
Missed
Missed
LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Las Vegas Convention Center tunnel finished by end of 2019
“Boring Company starts digging Vegas tunnel in 2 months. Aiming to finish by end of year.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
First Boring tunnel opens Dec 10, free public rides next day
“Opens Dec 10”
goalposts: 2018-12-10 (opens Dec 10, free rides next day) → 2018-12-18 (product launch Dec 18) · moved 1×
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