Pending
Pending
Grok Bot reaches wide enterprise deployment within a few weeks
“We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment with…”
AI predictions, scored.
AGI next year, Grok 'crushingly good,' supercomputers and terafabs.
The Feed
51 CLAIMS
51 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
Pending
Pending
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 → Mar 2026 → 2026 · moved 3×
Pending
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
goalposts: 2026 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
Pending
Pending
AGI will be achieved in 2026
“I think we'll hit AGI next year in 2026.”
goalposts: 2029 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
A new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026
“Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.”
Pending
Pending
xAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026
“We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.”
Pending
Pending
xAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026
“xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need …”
Pending
Pending
Grokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026
“Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.”
Pending
Pending
Grok discovers useful new technologies no later than 2026
“I would expect Grock to yeah literally discover new new technologies that are actually useful no later than…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX brings about 200,000 GB300s online every month for the rest of 2026
“We're tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for every month [that remains] t…”
Pending
Pending
SpaceX has a 440,000 Vera Rubin training cluster online by the end of Q2 2027
“We're also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,0…”
Pending
Pending
Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
Pending
Pending
Space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 launches to orbit in Q4 2027
“SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to or…”
goalposts: 2027 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
AI does any digital work at superhuman level by end of 2027
“AI will be able to do anything digital (that doesn’t require shaping atoms) at a superhuman level by the en…”
Pending
Pending
~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027
“Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
SpaceX brings about 13 GW of AI compute online by the end of 2027
“I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That wou…”
Pending
Pending
AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
goalposts: undated (Jun 16 2026 tweet) → 2028-03-01 (G20: next year / 12–18 months) · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
TeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 2027
“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”
goalposts: 2027 → Sep 2028 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
AI will beat all fields by end of 2027 or 2028 latest
“AI will beat all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest.”
Pending
Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
goalposts: 2028 → Feb 2029 → 2029 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
Pending
At least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040
“If you say like 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. So on the order of 10 …”
Pending
Pending
Terafab will be 50× the size of the Pentagon when complete
“Terafab will be 50 times the size of the Pentagon when complete”
Missed
Missed
Colossus +220k GB300 fully operational next week
“Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet a…”
Missed
Missed
Massive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++…”
Missed
Missed
Grok 4.8 finishes training this week (by Sep 20, 2026)
“Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and…”
Missed
Missed
Security-test and open-source all of X Chat
“In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code”
Missed
Missed
Grok 3 open-sourced in about 6 months
“The @xAI Grok 2.5 model, which was our best model last year, is now open source. Grok 3 will be made open s…”
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
Grok 3.5 early beta next week (May 2025)
“Next week, Grok 3.5 early beta release to SuperGrok subscribers only.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026)
“Grok 4.7 comes out in 10 days”
goalposts: 2026-09-11 (in 10 days) → 2026-09-16 (a few more days) · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Partial
Partial
Tesla Cortex 2: half a gigawatt, operational by mid-2026
“Well, we have Cortex 2 that's being built out. That'll be half a gigawatt and operational middle of next year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Grok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 2026
“@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more …”
Delivered
Delivered
First half of Cortex active by April 2026
“First half of Cortex will be active next month”
Partial
Partial
Grok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4
“Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes …”
Partial
Partial
Major Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks
“Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.”
Partial
Partial
Grok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025
“Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!”
Partial
Partial
Open-source the entire X codebase
“hopefully by next month, we should be able to open source literally all of the @X codebase. Nothing left ou…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
X algorithm 'purely AI' by November 2025
“The algorithm will be purely AI by November, with significant progress along the way.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grokipedia v0.1 published in two weeks (Oct 2025)
“Version 0.1 early beta of Grokipedia will be published in 2 weeks”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
goalposts: 2024 → Feb 2025 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Grok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok 1.5 out next month (February 2024)
“Yes, Grok 1.5 should be out next month with substantial improvements across the board”
Delivered
Delivered
xAI will open source Grok 'this week' (March 2024)
“This week, @xAI will open source Grok”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week (Nov 2023)
“Yeah. Grok should be available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week.”
Partial/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.