Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“There will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger seat, in about three weeks.”
— Elon Musk · Dec 9, 2025 · Video clip of Musk's xAI hackathon videoconference remarks (X post by @herbertong), Dec 2025 ↗
What actually happened
Within a week of the Dec 9 claim, Tesla began testing completely empty robotaxis (no occupants at all) on Austin roads, confirmed by Musk around Dec 13-15, 2025 — satisfying the literal claim inside the 3-week window. But paying customers could not ride a monitor-free robotaxi until January 22, 2026, and even then Tesla initially mixed a few unsupervised cars into a monitored fleet and shadowed them with chase vehicles carrying safety monitors. TechCrunch — Tesla starts testing robotaxis in Austin with no safety driver ↗
The Progression
Dec 9, 2025
The promise: “There will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger seat, in about three weeks.” · Video clip of Musk's xAI hackathon videoconference remarks (X post by @herbertong), Dec 2025 ↗
Dec 15, 2025
Partial — on time. Within a week of the Dec 9 claim, Tesla began testing completely empty robotaxis (no occupants at all) on Austin roads, confirmed by Musk around Dec 13-15, 2025 — satisfying the literal claim inside the 3-week window. But paying customers could not ride a monitor-free robotaxi until January 22, 2026, and even then Tesla initially mixed a few unsupervised cars into a monitored fleet and shadowed them with chase vehicles carrying safety monitors. TechCrunch — Tesla starts testing robotaxis in Austin with no safety driver ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Partial · on time. Sort of happened.
In remarks at an xAI hackathon in December 2025, Musk said Tesla robotaxis with no one inside — not even in the passenger seat — would operate in Austin 'in about three weeks.' Tesla began testing completely empty robotaxis on Austin streets within a week, satisfying the literal claim. But paying customers could not ride a monitor-free robotaxi until January 22, 2026, so the prediction is scored as partial.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [VIDEO] Video clip of Musk's xAI hackathon videoconference remarks (X post by @herbertong), Dec 2025
- [REPORT] electrek.co
More from the feed
Missed
Missed
LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Missed
Full Self-Driving feature complete by end of 2019
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
← Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026) →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.