PendingOptimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
Tesla predictions, scored.
Robotaxis, FSD, Cybertruck, Roadster, Optimus — the densest prediction portfolio on record. Scorecard so far: 46 delivered · 31 missed · 29 still open.
The Feed
106 CLAIMS
106 shown
Pending
PendingOptimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
PendingTalk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
PendingOwner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
PendingOptimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
PendingOptimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start tow…”
PendingRobotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United …”
PendingRobotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
PendingFSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
PendingTesla AI5 chip into production by ~Q2 2027
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'l…”
PendingAI5 chip production 2026-2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible…”
PendingRoadster 0-60 in under 1 second
“0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part”
PendingRoadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
PendingRoadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Pending
PendingSelling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to th…”
PendingTesla Roadster enters production
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 → 2028 · moved 7×
Pending
Pending20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
PendingOptimus $20-30k price point
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”
PendingOptimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
PendingOptimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
PendingOptimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
PendingSolar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
Pending
PendingTesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
PendingFremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Opt…”
PendingA legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
Missed500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
MissedRobotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
Missed1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Missed5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
MissedGenuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
MissedUnsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
MissedAustin robotaxi fleet roughly doubles
“The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month”
Cancelled
MissedA 'legion' of Optimus robots in 2025
“There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year.”
MissedNew FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
MissedFSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
MissedHW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
MissedOptimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
MissedCybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
Missed$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
MissedTesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
Missed'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
Cancelled
MissedLevel 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
MissedFSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
MissedRobotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
MissedYear of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
MissedCybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
MissedAutonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Missed'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
CancelledBattery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
MissedSolar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Cancelled'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
MissedAdd your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
DeliveredNew Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026
“This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.”
DeliveredModel S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
PartialTesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
PartialCars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
PartialCybercab mass production Q2 2026
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”
Delivered · LateSupervised FSD approval in Europe by Feb 2026
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a simi…”
DeliveredCybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
PartialLA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
PartialAutonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · LateDriverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
PartialBanish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
Delivered · LateFSD update: step-change for rare conditions
“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions”
DeliveredCars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
DeliveredFirst autonomous factory-to-customer delivery
“Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.”
PartialRobotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
Delivered · LateTesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered · Late
PartialOptimus performing factory tasks 2024
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”
Partial4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · LateCybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
DeliveredCybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Partial
Delivered · LateTesla Semi production in 2019
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”
DeliveredSemi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
DeliveredFSD Beta wide release (Nov 2022)
“The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go…”
DeliveredOptimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
Delivered · LateGiga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Delivered · LateFSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
DeliveredTesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 perce…”
Delivered · Late500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
PartialFSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
PartialFirst full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
DeliveredShanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
Delivered · LateTesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”
DeliveredTesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018
“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will b…”
Delivered · LateModel 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
DeliveredModel 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
DeliveredAustralia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
DeliveredTesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered · LateModel X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Partial$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Delivered · LateDrive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
DeliveredModel S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
DisputedFSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.