Pending
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New Tesla Roadster demo postponed to October 15, 2026
“New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01”
goalposts: 2026-10-01 (New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01) → 2026-10-15 (postponed by 2 weeks / QT Tesla Oct 15) · moved 1×
Tesla predictions, scored.
Robotaxis, FSD, Cybertruck, Roadster, Optimus — the densest prediction portfolio on record. Scorecard so far: 84 delivered · 98 missed · 46 still open.
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The Feed
228 CLAIMS
228 shown
Pending
Pending
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Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
Pending
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Optimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
Pending
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Optimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start tow…”
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Robotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United …”
Pending
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Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
Pending
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FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
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Millions of Teslas fully autonomous in the second half of 2026
“I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year.”
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Hundreds of thousands of self-driving Teslas in the US by end of 2026
“But my prediction is that probably by the end of next year we will have probably hundreds of thousands, if …”
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Tesla passes 10 million cumulative vehicles in 2026
“we will actually have made over 10 million vehicles next year. So we'll pass the 10 million vehicle cumulat…”
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Megapack 3 production starts in Houston later in 2026
“we're excited to begin production of Megapack 3 later this year in our new world class factory outside Houston”
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Self-driving working on the Tesla Semi by end of 2026 or early 2027
“We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi, probably around the end of this year or early next…”
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Tesla AI5 chip into production by ~Q2 2027
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'l…”
Pending
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Cybercab operating commercially in California by mid-2027
“Probably by middle of next year it will be operating commercially in California”
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More than half of new US vehicle production electric within 10 years (by 2027)
“Probably in 10 years, more than a half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States.”
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Almost all new cars autonomous within 10 years (by 2027)
“I think almost all cars produced will be autonomous in 10 years. Almost all. It will be rare to find one th…”
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Second Optimus factory at Giga Texas starts production around summer 2027
“And we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start pr…”
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AI5 chip production 2026-2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible…”
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Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
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Selling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to th…”
Pending
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TeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 2027
“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”
Pending
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Tesla Roadster enters production
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 → 2028 · moved 7×
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Over 30k high-paying Tesla jobs in Austin by 2028
“Probably over 30k people working in high-paying jobs at Tesla HQ & manufacturing in Austin by 2028!”
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Half of all miles driven are autonomous in five years (by 2030)
“In five years, probably 50% of all miles driven will be autonomous.”
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~100,000 Optimus robots a month within 60 months (by mid-2030)
“I'll be surprised if at the end of 5 years you know 60 months from now if we are not roughly making 100,000…”
Pending
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20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
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Optimus $20-30k price point
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”
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Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
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Optimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
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Optimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
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Tesla makes 3 TWh of batteries a year by 2030
“Long term, we're expecting to make on the order of 3,000 GWh per year. I think we've got a good chance of a…”
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At least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years
“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”
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Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
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Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
Pending
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AI drives 90% of all distance driven within about 10 years (by 2036)
“probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self driving car”
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Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
Pending
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At least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040
“If you say like 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. So on the order of 10 …”
Pending
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Solar is the single largest source of electricity by mid-century
“solar power will be the single largest source of electricity generation by the midpoint of the century”
Pending
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Fremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Opt…”
Pending
Pending
A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
Missed
Missed
Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
Missed
Missed
Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
Missed
Missed
Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
Missed
Missed
500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
Missed
Missed
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
Missed
Missed
1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Missed
Missed
5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
Missed
Missed
Genuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
Missed
Missed
Austin robotaxi fleet roughly doubles
“The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month”
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi in 8–10 metro areas by end of 2025
“And then we do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.”
Missed
Missed
Sleep in your car, wake at your destination, in many US cities by end of 2025
“The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination and I'm confident that wi…”
Missed
Missed
Unsupervised FSD for personal use by end of 2025 in certain areas
“I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.”
Missed
Missed
'Most epic demo ever' by end of 2025
“Just left the @Tesla design studio. Most epic demo ever by end of year. Ever.”
Missed
Missed
Next-gen low-cost Tesla in production in 2H 2025 at Giga Texas
“But our current schedule says that we will start production towards the end of 2025, so sometime in the sec…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla making a few million cars a year within 10 years (by 2025)
“I think we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years a year”
Missed
Missed
New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Missed
Missed
Around 1,000 Tesla robotaxis in Austin within a few months of launch
“it would probably be at a thousand within a few months”
Missed
Missed
FSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
Missed
Missed
HW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla sells more cars in 2024 than in 2023
“No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla does over $100 billion in revenue in 2024
“Tesla this year we'll do over 100 billion in revenue”
Missed
Missed
Optimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Missed
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FSD better than human by end of 2023
“I know I am the boy who cried FSD, but I think we will be better than human by the end of this year.”
Missed
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Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck delivery event probably in Q3 2023
“It's a great product and we're completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga, Texas and…”
Missed
Missed
$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Missed
Missed
Tesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
Missed
Missed
'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
Missed
Missed
At least 50% Tesla growth in 2022
“I think we feel confident of, say, at least a 50% growth year over year next year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla exits 2022 at a 2-million-car annual run rate
“So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million vehicle run rate by the end of the year. ... I think we migh…”
Missed
Missed
FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 2022
“We're hopeful to be able to, I think from a technical standpoint FSD Beta should be, should be possible to …”
Missed
Missed
New Tesla factory locations announced by end of 2022
“we will uh through 2022 look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the en…”
Missed
Missed
Model Y the world's best-selling vehicle in 2022
“more likely than not that in 2022, Model Y is the best-selling car or truck of any kind in the world”
Missed
Missed
FSD Beta in Europe this summer (2022)
“FSD Beta should be available in Europe for LHD this summer, RHD a few months later. These dates depend on r…”
Missed
Missed
Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)
“Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully aut…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Model S Plaid+ with ~500 miles of range in about a year
“Plus if you. That's maybe a year from now, that'll be on the order of 500 miles.”
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
Tesla drives itself more reliably than a human in 2021
“I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year.”
Missed
Missed
$39,000 Standard Range Model Y in 2021
“And then sometime in 2021 we'll have the sort of standard version which will be have a $39,000 price point.”
Missed
Missed
European Gigafactory operational probably in 2021
“until we have European cake factory operational and that's but that that's probably a couple years before i…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla makes 1.5 million cars in 2021
“what's my guess for 2021 is one and a half million cars for Tesla”
Missed
Missed
First Giga Berlin deliveries in December 2021
“we're aiming to start production in a few months, basically November or December in terms of and hopefully …”
Missed
Missed
1,000 Solar Roofs a week by end of 2019
“Spooling up production line rapidly. Hoping to manufacture ~1000 solar roofs/week by end of this year.”
goalposts: end of 2019 → ~Apr 2021 (Q1 2020 call: 'within the next year or maybe even by end of year') · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
Level 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
Missed
Missed
FSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed
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FSD Beta wide release by end of 2020
“And so we put it out there last night, and then we'll see how it goes, and then probably release it to more…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla makes close to 1 million vehicles in 2020
“I mean, it's fair to say like probably like, you know, our 2020 target for volume is, you know, closer to, …”
Missed
Missed
Driverless FSD approved by regulators somewhere by end of 2020
“And then we start to expect to get regulatory approval, at least in some jurisdictions for that towards the…”
Missed
Missed
Human intervention makes a Tesla less safe by 2020 at the latest
“But I'd say I'd be shocked if it's not next year at the latest that having a human intervene will decrease …”
Missed
Missed
Sleep in your car and wake at your destination in 5-6 years (2014)
“Like maybe five or six years from now, I think we'll be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you c…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla Battery Day probably in April 2020
“we're going to talk about this in battery day, which is probably April”
Missed
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Missed
Missed
Year of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla finds a parking spot and reads the signs by 2019
“By next year, a Tesla should be able to drive around a parking lot, find an empty spot, read signs to confi…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla hits a 10,000-car week by end of 2018
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 un…”
goalposts: end of 2018 → end of 2019 (Q4 2018 call) · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
Self-driving covers all modes of driving by end of 2019 (SXSW 2018)
“I think probably by end of next year, self driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be a…”
Missed
Missed
Superchargers cover 100% of Europe in 2019, Ireland to Kiev
“Yes. Supercharger coverage will extend to 100% of Europe next year. From Ireland to Kiev, from Norway to Tu…”
Missed
Missed
Model Y hits the roads around 2019
“So we're aiming for that, you know, to hit the roads in 2019 approximately and probably the demand for the …”
Missed
Missed
Tesla reaches 10,000 cars a week across S, X and 3 in 2019
“So what we're going to do this year is we're going to reach combined production of 10,000 a week between SX…”
Missed
Missed
Next-generation Roadster in about five years (by 2019)
“in terms of a next generation roadster that's probably, I don't know, five years away”
Missed
Missed
Battery and powertrain investor day by end of 2019 'for sure'
“investor day that's hopefully this summer before the end of the year for sure”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla pickup truck unveiled in summer 2019
“the pickup truck which we hope to unveil hopefully this summer”
Missed
Missed
Sleep in your Tesla and wake at your destination in ~2 years (TED 2017)
“I think that's about two years.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla profitable in Q1 2019 and all quarters going forward
“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 …”
Missed
Missed
Autonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Cancelled
Cancelled
'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla builds 500,000 cars in 2018
“Well, I mean, obviously, if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production of on the order of 5…”
Missed
Missed
Three times as many Superchargers by end of 2018
“By the end of next year, there will be three times as many superchargers as there are today.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla picks a European Gigafactory site before end of 2018
“I should say we are hoping to identify a gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.”
Missed
Missed
Supercharger V3 in production around end of 2018
“the next generation Supercharger. That is it's mostly finished in design and will go into production hopefu…”
Missed
Missed
A Tesla that can do full autonomy in about three years (Oct 2015)
“I think Tesla will be able to... will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years. So maybe a…”
Missed
Missed
'Less than two years away from complete autonomy' (Code 2016)
“I think we're basically less than two years away from complete autonomy. Wow, complete. Safer than a human.…”
Missed
Missed
Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production by early 2018
“And then hopefully by early next year we'll be in production with the Spanish tile and the French slate ver…”
Missed
Missed
Summon your Tesla from across the country in ~2 years
“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and th…”
Missed
Missed
100,000-200,000 Model 3s built in the second half of 2017
“You know, as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second h…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 2017
“I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.”
Missed
Missed
A Tesla breaks 1,000 km of range by 2017
“probably we could break a thousand kilometers within a year or two”
Missed
Missed
Tesla Semi unveiled at the end of September 2017
“the semi truck we're going to unveil at the end of September”
Missed
Missed
Tesla GAAP-profitable in Q4 2016
“we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year”
Missed
Missed
Gen 3 Tesla (~$35k) market release around late 2016
“move in sync to market release in hopefully sort of the late 2016 timeframe”
Missed
Missed
Autopilot Hardware 2 reaches feature parity with Hardware 1 in December 2016
“we expect to reach feature parity following field validation of Hardware 2, probably in December”
Missed
Missed
Tesla exits 2015 making 2,000 cars a week
“We feel confident of exiting next year at 2,000 units a week of production and demand, absent some macroeco…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla delivers 55,000 cars in 2015
“I should correct, even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I'm still confident we could do the…”
Missed
Missed
Model S China deliveries start Feb 2014
“we'll start delivering cars in the the first quarter. Uh probably either we're aiming for February but it c…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
Missed
Missed
Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 2013
“at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at…”
Missed
Missed
First Supercharger between SF and LA by Jan–Feb 2012
“we're hoping to have the first one installed um between San Francisco and N La probably in the Jan or Febru…”
Missed
Missed
Model X prototype unveiled in mid-December 2011
“the plan is to have a an unveiling of the model X prototype um at the end of this year so some probably in …”
Missed
Missed
Model S available in two years (by spring 2011)
“Well, the car will be available in two years, which is. That's when we'll be finished with all the crash te…”
Missed
Missed
Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
Missed
Missed
Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Autonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Robotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
Partial
Partial
Tesla Cortex 2: half a gigawatt, operational by mid-2026
“Well, we have Cortex 2 that's being built out. That'll be half a gigawatt and operational middle of next year.”
Delivered
Delivered
New Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026
“This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
Partial
Partial
Tesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
Partial
Partial
Cybercab mass production Q2 2026
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Supervised FSD approval in Europe by Feb 2026
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a simi…”
Delivered
Delivered
Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
Partial
Partial
LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Driverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
Partial
Partial
Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
Partial
Partial
Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD update: step-change for rare conditions
“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla's LA diner ready later in 2023
“Our Tesla futuristic diner (Grease meets The Jetsons with Supercharging) in LA should be ready later this y…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered
Delivered
Cars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Delivered
Delivered
First autonomous factory-to-customer delivery
“Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.”
Delivered
Delivered
Over 7 million Teslas by end of 2024
“it's going to be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year. Over 7 million vehicles.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered · Late
Partial
Partial
Partial
4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
'Actually Smart Summon' a month or two after July 2023
“Actually smart auto wiper software releases in about 3 weeks. Our patented, “Actually Smart Summon (ASS)” i…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered
Delivered
Model Y becomes the world's best-selling vehicle in 2023
“We think the Model Y will be the best selling vehicle of any kind globally. ... I think we've got a good ch…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla delivers 1.8 million cars in 2023
“We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will …”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
Delivered
Delivered
Cybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Delivered
Delivered
Semi starts shipping in 2022, Cybertruck in 2023
“Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year”
Delivered
Delivered
Cybertruck first deliveries next month (November 2023)
“We plan to drop first deliveries next month.”
Partial
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla headcount higher a year after the June 2022 salaried cut
“a year from now, I think our headcount will be higher in both Salaried and obviously in hourly”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Next Tesla self-driving chip (HW4) in about two years
“We don't want to talk too much about the next-generation chip, but it'll be at least, let's say, three time…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla Semi production in 2019
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”
Delivered
Delivered
Semi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Partial
Partial
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
Delivered
Delivered
FSD Beta wide release (Nov 2022)
“The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go…”
Delivered
Delivered
Optimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta V9 and the download button next month (April 2021)
“Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limite…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model S Plaid deliveries start next month (Feb 2021)
“The Model S Plaid, we're actually in production now and we'll be delivering next month.”
Partial
Partial
Model S Plaid in production around Oct/Nov 2020
“It's a start. We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid varian…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 perce…”
Partial
Partial
Tesla makes half a million to a million cars in 2020
“We'll aim for a million in 2020, but somewhere between half a million and a million seems pretty likely.”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla makes half a million cars in 2020
“I do remain confident about half a million cars in 2020, and, you know, maybe being able to exceed that.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
goalposts: end of 2019 → Apr 2020 (Apr 14 2019: 'over 500k cars in next 12 months') · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla grows 30–40% in 2020
“Probably somewhere between 30 to 40% growth despite a lot of very difficult circumstances”
Partial
Partial
FSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
Partial
Partial
First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
Delivered
Delivered
Model S gets a 400+ mile EPA range on retest
“we're extremely confident that we will achieve a 400 mile or greater range with the Model S”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla deliveries about 50% higher in 2019
“expecting deliveries just this year to be about fifty percent higher than last year”
Delivered
Delivered
Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla China factory starts production in about three years
“The China plan is sort of maybe something like ... a rough target of start of production in about three years.”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla names its Europe Gigafactory site by end of 2019
“In fact, we will announce the location of that Gigafactory before the end of this year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla back to profit in Q3 2019
“From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable nex…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks (Nov 2018)
“Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars ma…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cuphead arrives in Tesla Arcade in August 2019
“Cuphead for Tesla coming out in August”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”
Partial
Partial
Highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls within a year (2014)
“I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists witho…”
Delivered
Delivered
Model Y unveiled approximately March 2019
“We're aiming to unveil the Model Y approximately March next year”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
$35,000 Model 3 ships 3–6 months after 5k/week
“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping m…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018
“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will b…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
goalposts: Dec 2017 → late Q1 2018 (Nov 1 2017 call) → end of Q2 2018 (Feb 2018 call) · moved 2×
Delivered
Delivered
Model 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
Delivered
Delivered
Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered
Delivered
Model 3 deliveries start in 2017
“when are deliveries? Well, they're next year, so. So I do feel fairly confident that it will be next year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Model 3 production starts in about two years (2015)
“Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafac…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla grows at least 50% in 2015 and again in 2016
“We feel pretty confident with at least a 50% increase next year, and a 50% increase the year after.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Delivered
Delivered
Model 3 shown in approximately March 2016
“we are hoping to show off the model 3 in approximately March of next year”
Partial
Partial
$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Partial
Partial
Superchargers cover North America and Europe by end of 2014
“Just like Superchargers alone, we're aiming to have essentially all of North America covered in detail by t…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla delivers more than 20,000 cars in 2013
“I mean, I'm quite certain that we'll deliver more than 20,000 cars this year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla reaches at least 25% gross margin by the end of 2013
“we would achieve at least a 25% gross margin by the end of the year”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model S European deliveries start early 2013
“We expect to start delivering in Europe early next year, and we have not yet announced final pricing for Eu…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla cuts the repayment time on its DOE loan in half
“Tesla is going to cut the payment time in half of the loan”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla profitable in Q1 2013
“we we we really are have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter”
Delivered
Delivered
Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
Disputed
Disputed
FSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
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