Pending
Pending
Tesla shows Optimus doing unscripted tasks on video within a month or two
“So I want to release a video where it is Optimus doing things that are not pre-programmed. I think that is …”
Tesla predictions, scored.
Robotaxis, FSD, Cybertruck, Roadster, Optimus — the densest prediction portfolio on record. Scorecard so far: 85 delivered · 52 missed or cancelled · 36 still open.
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The Feed
173 CLAIMS
173 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
Pending
Pending
FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
Pending
Pending
Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
goalposts: no date → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
Hundreds of thousands of self-driving Teslas in the US by end of 2026
“But my prediction is that probably by the end of next year we will have probably hundreds of thousands, if …”
Pending
Pending
Self-driving working on the Tesla Semi by end of 2026 or early 2027
“We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi, probably around the end of this year or early next…”
Pending
Pending
EU-wide FSD approval by the end of Q1 2027
“We are now approved in many countries in Europe, and we are hoping for an EU-wide approval. It is hard to p…”
Pending
Pending
AI5 chip production 2026-2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible…”
goalposts: 2027 → Jun 2027 → Apr 2027 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
Cybercab operating commercially in California by mid-2027
“Probably by middle of next year it will be operating commercially in California”
Pending
Pending
Half of all new cars fully autonomous in 7-8 years (by 2022)
“Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully aut…”
goalposts: May 2022 → Jul 2027 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
More than half of new US vehicle production electric within 10 years (by 2027)
“Probably in 10 years, more than a half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States.”
Pending
Pending
Second Optimus factory at Giga Texas starts production around summer 2027
“And we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start pr…”
Pending
Pending
Optimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
goalposts: 2026 → 2027 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
goalposts: 2030 → Jul 2030 → 2026 → no date → 2027 · moved 4×
Pending
Pending
Selling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to th…”
Pending
Pending
TeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 2027
“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”
goalposts: 2027 → Sep 2028 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Tesla Roadster enters production
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 → 2028 · moved 8×
Pending
Pending
Over 30k high-paying Tesla jobs in Austin by 2028
“Probably over 30k people working in high-paying jobs at Tesla HQ & manufacturing in Austin by 2028!”
Pending
Pending
Pending
Half of all miles driven are autonomous in five years (by 2030)
“In five years, probably 50% of all miles driven will be autonomous.”
Pending
Pending
20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
Pending
Pending
Optimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
Pending
Pending
Optimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
goalposts: 2030 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
Tesla makes 3 TWh of batteries a year by 2030
“Long term, we're expecting to make on the order of 3,000 GWh per year. I think we've got a good chance of a…”
Pending
Pending
Tesla makes 5 million vehicles a year by about 2030
“We have also been laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. We are, I think, aiming for …”
Pending
Pending
At least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years
“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”
Pending
Pending
Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
Pending
Pending
AI drives 90% of all distance driven within about 10 years (by 2036)
“probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self driving car”
Pending
Pending
Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
Pending
Pending
At least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040
“If you say like 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. So on the order of 10 …”
Pending
Pending
Solar is the single largest source of electricity by mid-century
“solar power will be the single largest source of electricity generation by the midpoint of the century”
Pending
Pending
A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Roadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
Missed
Missed
Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
Missed
Missed
Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
Missed
Missed
1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
goalposts: 2025 · moved 0×
Missed
Missed
$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
goalposts: Sep 2023 → 2025 · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
goalposts: Oct 2020 → 2018 → Oct 2018 → Jun 2018 → Apr 2019 → 2019 → 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2025 · moved 12×
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi in 8–10 metro areas by end of 2025
“And then we do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla making a few million cars a year within 10 years (by 2025)
“I think we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years a year”
Missed
Missed
Around 1,000 Tesla robotaxis in Austin within a few months of launch
“it would probably be at a thousand within a few months”
goalposts: Sep 2025 → 2025 · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Missed
Missed
FSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
Missed
Missed
HW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla sells more cars in 2024 than in 2023
“No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla does over $100 billion in revenue in 2024
“Tesla this year we'll do over 100 billion in revenue”
Missed
Missed
Optimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
Missed
Missed
At least 50% Tesla growth in 2022
“I think we feel confident of, say, at least a 50% growth year over year next year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla exits 2022 at a 2-million-car annual run rate
“So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million vehicle run rate by the end of the year. ... I think we migh…”
Missed
Missed
FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 2022
“We're hopeful to be able to, I think from a technical standpoint FSD Beta should be, should be possible to …”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Model S Plaid+ with ~500 miles of range in about a year
“Plus if you. That's maybe a year from now, that'll be on the order of 500 miles.”
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
$39,000 Standard Range Model Y in 2021
“And then sometime in 2021 we'll have the sort of standard version which will be have a $39,000 price point.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla makes 1.5 million cars in 2021
“what's my guess for 2021 is one and a half million cars for Tesla”
Cancelled
Cancelled
1,000 Solar Roofs a week by end of 2019
“Spooling up production line rapidly. Hoping to manufacture ~1000 solar roofs/week by end of this year.”
goalposts: end of 2019 → ~Apr 2021 (Q1 2020 call: 'within the next year or maybe even by end of year') · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla makes close to 1 million vehicles in 2020
“I mean, it's fair to say like probably like, you know, our 2020 target for volume is, you know, closer to, …”
Missed
Missed
Tesla Battery Day probably in April 2020
“we're going to talk about this in battery day, which is probably April”
goalposts: 2019 → Apr 2020 · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Missed
Missed
Year of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla hits a 10,000-car week by end of 2018
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 un…”
goalposts: end of 2018 → end of 2019 (Q4 2018 call) → 2019 · moved 2×
Missed
Missed
Superchargers cover 100% of Europe in 2019, Ireland to Kiev
“Yes. Supercharger coverage will extend to 100% of Europe next year. From Ireland to Kiev, from Norway to Tu…”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla profitable in Q1 2019 and all quarters going forward
“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 …”
Cancelled
Cancelled
'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla builds 500,000 cars in 2018
“Well, I mean, obviously, if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production of on the order of 5…”
Missed
Missed
Three times as many Superchargers by end of 2018
“By the end of next year, there will be three times as many superchargers as there are today.”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production by early 2018
“And then hopefully by early next year we'll be in production with the Spanish tile and the French slate ver…”
Missed
Missed
Summon your Tesla from across the country in ~2 years
“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and th…”
Missed
Missed
100,000-200,000 Model 3s built in the second half of 2017
“You know, as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second h…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 2017
“I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.”
Missed
Missed
A Tesla breaks 1,000 km of range by 2017
“probably we could break a thousand kilometers within a year or two”
Missed
Missed
Tesla GAAP-profitable in Q4 2016
“we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year”
Missed
Missed
Autopilot Hardware 2 reaches feature parity with Hardware 1 in December 2016
“we expect to reach feature parity following field validation of Hardware 2, probably in December”
Missed
Missed
Tesla exits 2015 making 2,000 cars a week
“We feel confident of exiting next year at 2,000 units a week of production and demand, absent some macroeco…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla delivers 55,000 cars in 2015
“I should correct, even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I'm still confident we could do the…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
Missed
Missed
Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 2013
“at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at…”
Missed
Missed
Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
Delivered
Delivered
Delivered
Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Delivered
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
'Most epic demo ever' by end of 2025
“Just left the @Tesla design studio. Most epic demo ever by end of year. Ever.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026-10-01 (New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01) → 2026-10-15 (postponed by 2 weeks / QT Tesla Oct 15) · moved 2×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Autonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
goalposts: 2020 → Jun 2025 → 2025 · moved 2×
Delivered
Delivered
Megapack 3 production starts in Houston later in 2026
“we're excited to begin production of Megapack 3 later this year in our new world class factory outside Houston”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla passes 10 million cumulative vehicles in 2026
“we will actually have made over 10 million vehicles next year. So we'll pass the 10 million vehicle cumulat…”
Partial
Partial
Tesla Cortex 2: half a gigawatt, operational by mid-2026
“Well, we have Cortex 2 that's being built out. That'll be half a gigawatt and operational middle of next year.”
Delivered
Delivered
New Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026
“This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta in Europe this summer (2022)
“FSD Beta should be available in Europe for LHD this summer, RHD a few months later. These dates depend on r…”
goalposts: Sep 2022 → Feb 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
goalposts: 2026 → Jun 2026 · moved 1×
Partial
Partial
LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Partial
Partial
Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2025 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD update: step-change for rare conditions
“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla's LA diner ready later in 2023
“Our Tesla futuristic diner (Grease meets The Jetsons with Supercharging) in LA should be ready later this y…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered
Delivered
Cars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Delivered
Delivered
First autonomous factory-to-customer delivery
“Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.”
Delivered
Delivered
Over 7 million Teslas by end of 2024
“it's going to be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year. Over 7 million vehicles.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered · Late
Partial
Partial
Partial
4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks (Nov 2018)
“Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars ma…”
goalposts: Dec 2018 → Sep 2023 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model Y becomes the world's best-selling vehicle in 2023
“We think the Model Y will be the best selling vehicle of any kind globally. ... I think we've got a good ch…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla delivers 1.8 million cars in 2023
“We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will …”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 → Sep 2023 → Nov 2023 · moved 4×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla Semi production in 2019
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2023 → 2024 → 2026 · moved 3×
Delivered
Delivered
Cybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Partial
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
New Tesla factory locations announced by end of 2022
“we will uh through 2022 look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the en…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla headcount higher a year after the June 2022 salaried cut
“a year from now, I think our headcount will be higher in both Salaried and obviously in hourly”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Next Tesla self-driving chip (HW4) in about two years
“We don't want to talk too much about the next-generation chip, but it'll be at least, let's say, three time…”
Delivered
Delivered
Semi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta wide release by end of 2020
“And so we put it out there last night, and then we'll see how it goes, and then probably release it to more…”
goalposts: 2020 → Nov 2022 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Optimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
goalposts: 2021 · moved 0×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD Beta V9 and the download button next month (April 2021)
“Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limite…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
FSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model S Plaid in production around Oct/Nov 2020
“It's a start. We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid varian…”
goalposts: Nov 2020 → Feb 2021 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 perce…”
Partial
Partial
Tesla makes half a million to a million cars in 2020
“We'll aim for a million in 2020, but somewhere between half a million and a million seems pretty likely.”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla makes half a million cars in 2020
“I do remain confident about half a million cars in 2020, and, you know, maybe being able to exceed that.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
goalposts: end of 2019 → Apr 2020 (Apr 14 2019: 'over 500k cars in next 12 months') · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla grows 30–40% in 2020
“Probably somewhere between 30 to 40% growth despite a lot of very difficult circumstances”
Partial
Partial
FSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
Partial
Partial
First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
Delivered
Delivered
Model S gets a 400+ mile EPA range on retest
“we're extremely confident that we will achieve a 400 mile or greater range with the Model S”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model Y hits the roads around 2019
“So we're aiming for that, you know, to hit the roads in 2019 approximately and probably the demand for the …”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla deliveries about 50% higher in 2019
“expecting deliveries just this year to be about fifty percent higher than last year”
Delivered
Delivered
Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla China factory starts production in about three years
“The China plan is sort of maybe something like ... a rough target of start of production in about three years.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla pickup truck unveiled in summer 2019
“the pickup truck which we hope to unveil hopefully this summer”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla picks a European Gigafactory site before end of 2018
“I should say we are hoping to identify a gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2019 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla back to profit in Q3 2019
“From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable nex…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Cuphead arrives in Tesla Arcade in August 2019
“Cuphead for Tesla coming out in August”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Highway on-ramp to exit without touching any controls within a year (2014)
“I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists witho…”
goalposts: Jun 2015 → Oct 2015 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Model Y unveiled approximately March 2019
“We're aiming to unveil the Model Y approximately March next year”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Supercharger V3 in production around end of 2018
“the next generation Supercharger. That is it's mostly finished in design and will go into production hopefu…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
$35,000 Model 3 ships 3–6 months after 5k/week
“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping m…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018
“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will b…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
goalposts: Dec 2017 → late Q1 2018 (Nov 1 2017 call) → end of Q2 2018 (Feb 2018 call) → Jun 2018 · moved 3×
Delivered
Delivered
Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
goalposts: 2017 → Sep 2017 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model 3 production starts in about two years (2015)
“Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafac…”
goalposts: 2016 → Sep 2017 → 2017 · moved 2×
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla grows at least 50% in 2015 and again in 2016
“We feel pretty confident with at least a 50% increase next year, and a 50% increase the year after.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Delivered
Delivered
Model 3 shown in approximately March 2016
“we are hoping to show off the model 3 in approximately March of next year”
Partial
Partial
$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Partial
Partial
Superchargers cover North America and Europe by end of 2014
“Just like Superchargers alone, we're aiming to have essentially all of North America covered in detail by t…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model S China deliveries start Feb 2014
“we'll start delivering cars in the the first quarter. Uh probably either we're aiming for February but it c…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla delivers more than 20,000 cars in 2013
“I mean, I'm quite certain that we'll deliver more than 20,000 cars this year.”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla reaches at least 25% gross margin by the end of 2013
“we would achieve at least a 25% gross margin by the end of the year”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model S European deliveries start early 2013
“We expect to start delivering in Europe early next year, and we have not yet announced final pricing for Eu…”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla cuts the repayment time on its DOE loan in half
“Tesla is going to cut the payment time in half of the loan”
Delivered
Delivered
Tesla profitable in Q1 2013
“we we we really are have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
First Supercharger between SF and LA by Jan–Feb 2012
“we're hoping to have the first one installed um between San Francisco and N La probably in the Jan or Febru…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
goalposts: Apr 2011 → Jul 2012 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Model X prototype unveiled in mid-December 2011
“the plan is to have a an unveiling of the model X prototype um at the end of this year so some probably in …”
Disputed
Disputed
FSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
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