Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.”
— Elon Musk · Jul 23, 2025 · Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), July 23 2025 ↗
What actually happened
At the end of 2025, Tesla's only robotaxi deployment was Austin (Bay Area rides used human safety drivers), and even Austin rides still had in-car safety monitors until January 22, 2026. Service reached nowhere near half the US population; by mid-2026 it covered just three Texas metros with a few dozen cars. TechCrunch — Tesla launches robotaxi rides in Austin with no human safety driver ↗
The Progression
Jul 23, 2025
The promise: “I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.” · Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), July 23 2025 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. At the end of 2025, Tesla's only robotaxi deployment was Austin (Bay Area rides used human safety drivers), and even Austin rides still had in-car safety monitors until January 22, 2026. Service reached nowhere near half the US population; by mid-2026 it covered just three Texas metros with a few dozen cars. TechCrunch — Tesla launches robotaxi rides in Austin with no human safety driver ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.
On Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call, Musk predicted autonomous ride-hailing would reach 'probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.' That would have required expansion from a single pilot city to dozens of major metros within roughly five months. By year-end, Tesla's robotaxis operated only in Austin — with in-car safety monitors until January 2026 — while Bay Area rides still used human safety drivers.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), July 23 2025
- [REPORT] fortune.com
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