US output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation

Asked why inflation persists if AI is boosting productivity, Musk answered that AI has not yet increased goods and services output faster than the US money supply is growing. On Nikhil Kamath's 'People by WTF' podcast, published November 30, 2025, he put roughly three years on the crossover: output growth overtaking money-supply growth by about 2028, followed by deflation and interest rates falling to zero, which he argued would shrink the debt problem. The measurable test is whether real output growth exceeds money-supply growth by the end of 2028 and prices actually fall.