Cancelled
Cancelled
Roadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
The broken promises.
The other chart — the one people keep asking for. These are the 85 predictions with a date attached that simply never arrived: a million robotaxis, humans on Mars, full self-driving "next year," the next Roadster. Ranked by how long overdue, every one cited to his own words.
Longest overdue & still no-show, in years
73 STILL OVERDUE · CANCELLED & LATER-FULFILLED EXCLUDEDAcross the whole empire: 51 Tesla · 15 SpaceX · 5 General · 5 xAI · 3 Neuralink · 3 Boring Company · 3 X. The oldest blown deadlines are the 2015–2020 self-driving promises, which is why Tesla tops the board.
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Every broken promise
85 TOTALCancelled
Cancelled
Cancelled
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 window → 2028-29 window (Moonshots Dec 2025: 'a low probability shot... 29 then') · moved 3×
Missed
Missed
Colossus +220k GB300 fully operational next week
“Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet a…”
Missed
Missed
Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
Missed
Missed
Massive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++…”
Missed
Missed
DOGE achieves a $1 trillion deficit reduction in fiscal year 2026
“we do need to move quickly if we are to achieve a trillion dollar deficit reduction in financial year 2026.…”
Missed
Missed
Grok 4.8 finishes training this week (by Sep 20, 2026)
“Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and…”
Missed
Missed
Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
Missed
Missed
Security-test and open-source all of X Chat
“In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code”
Missed
Missed
Grok 3 open-sourced in about 6 months
“The @xAI Grok 2.5 model, which was our best model last year, is now open source. Grok 3 will be made open s…”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
Missed
Missed
Quadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”
Missed
Missed
1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
goalposts: 2025 · moved 0×
Missed
Missed
$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
goalposts: Sep 2023 → 2025 · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
goalposts: Oct 2020 → 2018 → Oct 2018 → Jun 2018 → Apr 2019 → 2019 → 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2025 → 2026 → 2025 · moved 12×
Missed
Missed
Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi in 8–10 metro areas by end of 2025
“And then we do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.”
Missed
Missed
First Blindsight human implant later in 2025
“we're hoping later this year to do our first device implant for human enabling someone who is completely bl…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla making a few million cars a year within 10 years (by 2025)
“I think we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years a year”
Missed
Missed
Around 1,000 Tesla robotaxis in Austin within a few months of launch
“it would probably be at a thousand within a few months”
goalposts: Sep 2025 → 2025 · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Missed
Missed
Grok 3.5 early beta next week (May 2025)
“Next week, Grok 3.5 early beta release to SuperGrok subscribers only.”
Missed
Missed
FSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
Missed
Missed
HW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
Missed
Missed
Neuralink implants 10 people by end of 2024
“It depends somewhat on the regulatory approval, the rate at which we get regulatory approvals. So, we’re ho…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla sells more cars in 2024 than in 2023
“No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.”
Missed
Missed
Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024
“We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours p…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla does over $100 billion in revenue in 2024
“Tesla this year we'll do over 100 billion in revenue”
Missed
Missed
Five or six more Starship flights in 2024
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
Missed
Missed
Missed
Twitter tops a billion monthly users in 12–18 months
“I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months”
Missed
Missed
Optimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Missed
Missed
A pretty difficult recession in 2023
“As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty diffi…”
Missed
Missed
Twitter roughly cash-flow break-even in 2023
“I think we will be about, hopefully, sort of roughly cash flow break even. That's what I expect for next year”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
Missed
Missed
At least 50% Tesla growth in 2022
“I think we feel confident of, say, at least a 50% growth year over year next year.”
Missed
Missed
A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022
“And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla exits 2022 at a 2-million-car annual run rate
“So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million vehicle run rate by the end of the year. ... I think we migh…”
Missed
Missed
FSD Beta rolled out worldwide by end of 2022
“We're hopeful to be able to, I think from a technical standpoint FSD Beta should be, should be possible to …”
Missed
Missed
Starship launch capability at Cape 39A and an ocean platform by end of 2022
“hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Model S Plaid+ with ~500 miles of range in about a year
“Plus if you. That's maybe a year from now, that'll be on the order of 500 miles.”
Cancelled
Missed
Missed
Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 2021
“Speed will double to ~300Mb/s & latency will drop to ~20ms later this year”
Missed
Missed
$39,000 Standard Range Model Y in 2021
“And then sometime in 2021 we'll have the sort of standard version which will be have a $39,000 price point.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla makes 1.5 million cars in 2021
“what's my guess for 2021 is one and a half million cars for Tesla”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than thre…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
1,000 Solar Roofs a week by end of 2019
“Spooling up production line rapidly. Hoping to manufacture ~1000 solar roofs/week by end of this year.”
goalposts: end of 2019 → ~Apr 2021 (Q1 2020 call: 'within the next year or maybe even by end of year') · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”
Missed
Missed
Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed
Missed
2020 Hyperloop competition in a 10 km vacuum tunnel
“Next year's @Hyperloop competition will be in a 10km vacuum tunnel with a curve”
Missed
Missed
Tesla makes close to 1 million vehicles in 2020
“I mean, it's fair to say like probably like, you know, our 2020 target for volume is, you know, closer to, …”
Missed
Missed
Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Missed
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Missed
Missed
Year of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla hits a 10,000-car week by end of 2018
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 un…”
goalposts: end of 2018 → end of 2019 (Q4 2018 call) → 2019 · moved 2×
Missed
Missed
Superchargers cover 100% of Europe in 2019, Ireland to Kiev
“Yes. Supercharger coverage will extend to 100% of Europe next year. From Ireland to Kiev, from Norway to Tu…”
Missed
Missed
Starship Mk1 flies to ~20 km in one to two months (2019)
“Our plan is in basically one to two months to do the 20 kilometer or 65,000 foot flight with Starship Mark 1.”
Missed
Missed
Cybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019
“probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days”
Missed
Missed
Tesla profitable in Q1 2019 and all quarters going forward
“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 …”
Cancelled
Cancelled
'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla builds 500,000 cars in 2018
“Well, I mean, obviously, if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production of on the order of 5…”
Missed
Missed
Three times as many Superchargers by end of 2018
“By the end of next year, there will be three times as many superchargers as there are today.”
Missed
Missed
SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018
“And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.”
Missed
Missed
A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018
“probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours”
Missed
Missed
First Boring tunnel opens Dec 10, free public rides next day
“Opens Dec 10”
goalposts: 2018-12-10 (opens Dec 10, free rides next day) → 2018-12-18 (product launch Dec 18) · moved 1×
Missed
Missed
SpaceX recovers a fairing within six months (Feb 2018)
“I'm pretty sure we'll serve fairing recovery in the next six months.”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production by early 2018
“And then hopefully by early next year we'll be in production with the Spanish tile and the French slate ver…”
Missed
Missed
Summon your Tesla from across the country in ~2 years
“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and th…”
Missed
Missed
100,000-200,000 Model 3s built in the second half of 2017
“You know, as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second h…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 2017
“I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.”
Missed
Missed
A Tesla breaks 1,000 km of range by 2017
“probably we could break a thousand kilometers within a year or two”
Missed
Missed
Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016
“We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla GAAP-profitable in Q4 2016
“we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year”
Missed
Missed
Autopilot Hardware 2 reaches feature parity with Hardware 1 in December 2016
“we expect to reach feature parity following field validation of Hardware 2, probably in December”
Missed
Missed
Tesla exits 2015 making 2,000 cars a week
“We feel confident of exiting next year at 2,000 units a week of production and demand, absent some macroeco…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla delivers 55,000 cars in 2015
“I should correct, even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I'm still confident we could do the…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
Missed
Missed
Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 2013
“at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at…”
Missed
Missed
Oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2010-2012
“I think we'll see it sort of approach $200 and beyond by 2010, 1112, somewhere in there”
Missed
Missed
Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004
“Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Cancelled
Cancelled
'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
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