CancelledUncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
The broken promises.
The other chart — the one people keep asking for. These are the 53 predictions with a date attached that simply never arrived: a million robotaxis, humans on Mars, full self-driving "next year," the next Roadster. Ranked by how long overdue, every one cited to his own words.
Most overdue, in years
50 DATED MISSESEvery broken promise
53 TOTALCancelled
Missed
Missed500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
MissedRobotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
MissedQuadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”
Missed1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Missed5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
MissedAI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
MissedGenuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
MissedUnsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
MissedRecover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it bac…”
MissedNew FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
MissedFSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
MissedHW3 sufficient for FSD
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do…”
MissedFour BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
Missed
MissedOptimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Missed$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
MissedTesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
Missed
MissedTwo BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
Missed'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
Missed
Missed4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
CancelledChicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than thre…”
MissedHumans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
MissedAutonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
MissedLevel 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
MissedRobotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
MissedFSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
CancelledLA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”
MissedRobotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
MissedFSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 · moved 1×
MissedClose to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Missed1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
MissedYear of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
MissedCybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
MissedAutonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Missed'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
MissedFirst full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
MissedLA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
MissedTesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Missed90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
MissedModel X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
MissedBattery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
MissedSolar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Missed'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
MissedAdd your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
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