Every prediction, newest first.

All 153 predictions Elon Musk has made on the record, ordered by when he said it — not by deadline. Filter by where he said it: his own tweets, an interview or keynote, or an earnings call. Every one cited to his own words.

153 predictions · newest claim first
2026
Jun 18Talk to Grok in FSD within ~3 monthsTeslaTweetPendingJun 17A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probeTeslaTweetPendingJun 17Grok makes full movies by the end of 2026xAITweetPendingJun 16AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer usexAITweetPendingJun 14SpaceX reaches ~$1 trillion annual revenue in 2030SpaceXTweetPendingJun 135× more satellites than the rest of the world within ~5 yearsSpaceXTweetPendingJun 101 million tons to orbit possible within ~5 yearsSpaceXTweetPendingApr 22Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026TeslaEarnings callPendingApr 22FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026TeslaEarnings callPendingApr 22Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026TeslaEarnings callPendingMar 21Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/yearGeneralInterviewPendingMar 13Economy 10x bigger in 10 yearsGeneralInterviewPendingMar 7Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)SpaceXTweetDelivered · LateJan 28Robotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026TeslaEarnings callPendingJan 28Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)TeslaEarnings callPendingJan 28Fremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/yearTeslaEarnings callPendingJan 28Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)TeslaEarnings callDeliveredJan 22Supervised FSD approval in Europe by Feb 2026TeslaInterviewDelivered · LateJan 6Starship orbital refueling demo by end of 2026SpaceXInterviewPendingJan 6Optimus a better surgeon than the best humans in 3 years (by 2029)TeslaInterviewPendingJan 6AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030xAIInterviewPendingJan 6Grok 5 ships in Q1 2026xAIInterviewMissedJan 6AGI will be achieved in 2026xAIInterviewPending
2025
Dec 31Neuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026NeuralinkTweetPendingDec 24US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 yearsGeneralTweetPendingDec 7Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI computeSpaceXTweetPendingNov 13X becomes the everything appXTweetPendingNov 13X Money launches soonXTweetPartialNov 4AI5 chip production 2026-2027TeslaTweetPendingOct 31Neuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soonNeuralinkTweetPendingOct 31500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025TeslaInterviewMissedOct 23Cybercab mass production Q2 2026TeslaEarnings callPartialOct 23Optimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026TeslaEarnings callPendingOct 22Driverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025TeslaEarnings callDelivered · LateOct 10Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near futureTeslaTweetPartialOct 6Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026xAITweetPendingOct 6Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026xAITweetPendingSep 10Phones supporting Starlink's new spectrum ship in ~2 yearsSpaceXInterviewPendingSep 4Blindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026NeuralinkTweetPendingSep 180% of Tesla value will be OptimusTeslaTweetPendingAug 7Grok 5 released before end of 2025xAITweetMissedAug 6New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)TeslaTweetMissedJul 23Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)TeslaEarnings callPendingJul 23Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025TeslaEarnings callMissedJun 11Cars deliver themselves from factoryTeslaTweetDeliveredJun 11Robotaxi launch in Austin June 2025TeslaTweetPartialApr 3Superhuman abilities via NeuralinkNeuralinkInterviewPendingMar 15Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)SpaceXTweetPendingFeb 28Recover the Starship upper stage intact in 2025SpaceXInterviewMissedJan 29Optimus 10x production ramp each yearTeslaEarnings callPendingJan 295,000 Optimus robots in 2025TeslaEarnings callMissed
2024
Oct 10Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)TeslaInterviewDeliveredOct 10Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)TeslaInterviewMissedOct 10Optimus $20-30k price pointTeslaInterviewPendingOct 1Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 yearsTeslaInterviewPendingSep 22Uncrewed Starships to Mars (2026 window)SpaceXTweetCancelledAug 22Thousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030NeuralinkTweetPendingJul 22Genuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025TeslaTweetMissedJul 1Grok 2 comes out in August 2024xAITweetDeliveredJul 1Grok 3 by end of 2024xAITweetDelivered · LateJul 1Optimus performing factory tasks 2024TeslaEarnings callDeliveredJul 1Optimus high-volume external production 2026TeslaEarnings callPendingJun 15Roadster can flyTeslaTweetPendingJun 13Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable companyTeslaEarnings callPendingJun 131,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025TeslaEarnings callMissedApr 5Tesla Robotaxi unveil on August 8, 2024TeslaTweetDelivered · LateMar 13AI smarter than any single human by end of 2025GeneralTweetMissedMar 11xAI will open source Grok 'this week' (March 2024)xAITweetDeliveredFeb 28Roadster 0-60 in under 1 secondTeslaTweetPending
2023
Nov 23FSD supervised safer than human driversTeslaTweetDisputedNov 12FSD v12 to customers in 'about 2 weeks' (Nov 2023)TeslaTweetDelivered · LateOct 1Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025TeslaEarnings callMissedFeb 3Creator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)XTweetDelivered · Late
2022
Nov 30Restore full body functionalityNeuralinkInterviewPendingNov 30Quadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025NeuralinkInterviewMissedNov 1FSD Beta wide release (Nov 2022)TeslaInterviewDeliveredOct 19Tesla Semi volume production 2024TeslaEarnings callPartialSep 30Optimus under $20000TeslaInterviewPendingSep 29Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seasTeslaTweetDisputedAug 26Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023SpaceXTweetDelivered · LateApr 7Optimus production ready by 2023TeslaInterviewMissedJan 26'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022TeslaEarnings callMissed
2021
Aug 19Dojo supercomputer operational in 2022TeslaInterviewMissedAug 19Optimus prototype by 2022TeslaInterviewDeliveredAug 15Starship lands humans on the Moon 'probably sooner' than 2024SpaceXTweetMissedFeb 22Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021SpaceXTweetDelivered · LateJan 27Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021TeslaEarnings callDelivered · LateJan 27Cybertruck volume production in 2022TeslaEarnings callDelivered · Late
2020
Dec 20FSD subscription released early 2021TeslaTweetDelivered · LateDec 1Self-sustaining Mars city ASAPSpaceXInterviewPendingSep 224680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)TeslaInterviewMissedSep 22$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)TeslaInterviewMissedSep 2220 million cars per year by 2030TeslaTweetPendingJul 9Level 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020TeslaInterviewMissedMay 18FSD price will keep increasingTeslaTweetMissedApr 12Robotaxi functionality in 2020TeslaTweetMissedMar 19Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020GeneralTweetMissedJan 29Tesla Network car sharing before robotaxiTeslaEarnings callMissed
2019
Nov 21Cybertruck shatterproof glassTeslaInterviewMissedNov 21Cybertruck bulletproofTeslaInterviewDeliveredNov 21Cybertruck starting at $39,900TeslaInterviewMissedOct 23FSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020TeslaEarnings callMissedOct 23FSD ‘feature complete’TeslaEarnings callMissedSep 28Starship fully reusableSpaceXInterviewPendingSep 28Starship reaches orbitSpaceXInterviewPartialJul 16First human Neuralink implantNeuralinkInterviewDelivered · LateApr 24Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)TeslaEarnings callDelivered · LateApr 22Robotaxi $30k/year income for ownersTeslaInterviewMissedApr 22HW3 sufficient for FSDTeslaInterviewMissedApr 22Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)TeslaInterviewPartialApr 22Autonomous robotaxis in 2020TeslaInterviewMissedApr 221 million robotaxis on roads by 2020TeslaInterviewMissedMar 14Year of the solar roof 2019TeslaInterviewMissedFeb 20500,000 cars in 2019TeslaTweetMissedJan 7Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019TeslaTweetDelivered
2018
Jun 14Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)Boring CompanyInterviewCancelledJun 10First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)TeslaTweetMissedJun 9Roadster SpaceX package with thrustersTeslaTweetPendingApr 13Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018TeslaTweetDeliveredFeb 7Model 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018TeslaEarnings callDelivered
2017
Nov 16Roadster 620 mile rangeTeslaInterviewPendingNov 16Semi 500 mile rangeTeslaInterviewDeliveredNov 16Tesla Roadster enters productionTeslaInterviewPendingNov 16Tesla Semi production in 2019TeslaInterviewDelivered · LateSep 29Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crewSpaceXInterviewMissedSep 29Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)SpaceXInterviewMissedJul 3Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017TeslaTweetDelivered · LateMar 10Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's freeTeslaTweetDelivered
2016
Nov 17Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)TeslaInterviewMissedOct 23First crewed Mars mission ~12 peopleSpaceXOtherPendingOct 19LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017TeslaInterviewMissedSep 271 million people on MarsSpaceXInterviewPendingJul 20'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018TeslaOtherMissedJul 20Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)TeslaOtherMissedJul 20Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017TeslaOtherMissedJul 20Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)TeslaOtherDeliveredJun 2Humans on MarsSpaceXInterviewMissedApr 27Uncrewed Mars landing 2018SpaceXTweetCancelled
2015
Apr 30$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)TeslaInterviewPartialMar 17Autonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)TeslaInterviewMissedFeb 11Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025TeslaEarnings callDelivered
2014
Dec 31'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)TeslaTweetMissedOct 2480-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)SpaceXInterviewDelivered · LateOct 190% autopilot capable by 2015TeslaInterviewMissedJun 3Model X volume production in Q2 2015TeslaEarnings callMissed
2013
Aug 12LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)Boring CompanyOtherCancelledJun 20Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)TeslaInterviewMissedFeb 27Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013TeslaInterviewDelivered · LateFeb 27Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)TeslaInterviewPending
2012
Feb 9Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012TeslaInterviewDelivered
2011
Apr 22SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)SpaceXInterviewDelivered · LateApr 22Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)SpaceXInterviewMissedApr 5Falcon Heavy launch 2013SpaceXInterviewDelivered · Late
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