All 354 predictions Elon Musk has made on the record, ordered by when he said it — not by deadline. Filter by where he said it: his own tweets, an interview or keynote, or an earnings call. Every one cited to his own words.
Every prediction counted on the day he made it, Oct 2003 to Nov 2026.
One dot per prediction, placed on the day he said it. First: Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around… (Oct 2003). Latest: Grok 4.8 soft-rolls out to Bot users later this… (Nov 10, 2026). Tap a dot to open it.
“I think actually in the limit, I mean, maybe within the same, probably two or three years, the cost of a ton to orbit will be less than the cost of air freight from California to Australia.”— Elon Musk, Nov 6, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“I'm not sure what the exact numbers will be, Q3 to Q4, but probably something like 70% Q3 to Q4. And I would say maybe it's something similar Q4 to Q1.”— Elon Musk, Nov 6, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“So I want to release a video where it is Optimus doing things that are not pre-programmed. I think that is maybe a month or 2 for that to have a demo that you can believe what you see type of thing.”— Elon Musk, Oct 21, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We have also been laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. We are, I think, aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030. I think we have got a good shot of achieving that goal.”— Elon Musk, Oct 21, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We are now approved in many countries in Europe, and we are hoping for an EU-wide approval. It is hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1.”— Elon Musk, Oct 21, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers for GrokBot.”— Elon Musk, Oct 20, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“What I expect over time is not in the distant future, probably within three years, is that we will have about 100 times the bandwidth of the current Starlink constellation.”— Elon Musk, Oct 20, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of '27 is somewhere between $500 billion and a trillion.”— Elon Musk, Oct 20, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We're also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,000 Vera Rubin computers deployed for optimal training.”— Elon Musk, Oct 20, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We're tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for every month [that remains] this year and continuing that pace next year with next year being primarily Rubin compute.”— Elon Musk, Oct 20, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That would be in addition to the roughly 3 gigawatts, maybe 2 and a half to 3 gigawatts that we'll have online by the end of this year. So, I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 20, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about right. Probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving is my guess.”— Elon Musk, Oct 10, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“we expect starship to ultimately next year, I think probably reach a weekly or twice weekly cadence”— Elon Musk, Sep 29, 2026 · 00:16:23
“Probably by middle of next year it will be operating commercially in California”— Elon Musk, Sep 25, 2026 · 00:03:18
“Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”— Elon Musk, Sep 15, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots. ... there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years and that those robots will be at least five times the output of a human meaning the billion humanoid robots will be more productive than all humans combined.”— Elon Musk, Sep 1, 2026 · 00:09:22
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month, and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter.”— Elon Musk, Aug 11, 2026 · 00:15:36
“So we need some critical mass of [V3] satellites, probably at least on the order of about 1,000, but probably that's, you know, I mean, approximately second quarter next year would be, I think, where we'd get to that point.”— Elon Musk, Aug 4, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.”— Elon Musk, Aug 4, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Aug 4, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day, possibly more.”— Elon Musk, Aug 4, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Money won't matter in 2036.”— Elon Musk, Jul 23, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“The AI robot singularity is 10 years away.”— Elon Musk, Jul 23, 2026Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi, probably around the end of this year or early next year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 22, 2026 · 55:20
“I think we'll we'll have landed our first people on the moon um in in less than 5 years. We if if things go well uh we we might be able to put the first astronauts on the moon in uh 2 to 3 years and then and then expand rapidly from there so that in say 10 years from now we there there are thousands of people on the moon”— Elon Musk, Jul 8, 2026 · 4:13
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space AI compute.”— Elon Musk, Jun 8, 2026 · 26:15
“I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.”— Elon Musk, May 19, 2026 · 0:25
“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”— Elon Musk, May 19, 2026 · 0:15
“probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self driving car”— Elon Musk, May 18, 2026 · 00:08:24
“we're excited to begin production of Megapack 3 later this year in our new world class factory outside Houston”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“And we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start production around summer next year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI5.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfortable prediction.”— Elon Musk, Mar 13, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”— Elon Musk, Jan 28, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.”— Elon Musk, Jan 28, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public.”— Elon Musk, Jan 22, 2026 · 24:02
“Well, we have Cortex 2 that's being built out. That'll be half a gigawatt and operational middle of next year.”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2026 · 00:18:27
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we'll hit AGI next year in 2026.”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“in 3 years or less my my guess is goods and services output will exceed the rate of inflation like money goods and services growth will exceed money money supply growth in about 3 years. Maybe after those three years you have deflation and then interest rates go to zero and then the debt is a smaller problem than it is”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2025 · 50:39
“my prediction is less than in less than 20 years working will be optional. working at all will be optional like a hobby pretty much”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2025 · 31:33
“And then we do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 22, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around 2 years.”— Elon Musk, Sep 10, 2025 · 17:08
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”— Elon Musk, Jul 23, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I would expect Grock to yeah literally discover new new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year”— Elon Musk, Jul 9, 2025 · 00:12:48
“it would probably be at a thousand within a few months”— Elon Musk, May 20, 2025 · 00:01:04
“But my prediction is that probably by the end of next year we will have probably hundreds of thousands, if not— Over a million Teslas doing self-driving in the U.S.”— Elon Musk, May 20, 2025Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolutely provide superhuman abilities via Neuralink in the future.”— Elon Musk, Apr 3, 2025 · 00:40:43
“we're hoping later this year to do our first device implant for human enabling someone who is completely blind to see”— Elon Musk, Mar 30, 2025 · 02:37:22
“we will actually have made over 10 million vehicles next year. So we'll pass the 10 million vehicle cumulative.”— Elon Musk, Mar 20, 2025 · 00:01:48
“In five years, probably 50% of all miles driven will be autonomous.”— Elon Musk, Mar 17, 2025 · 00:22:32
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it back intact this year. We might be able to refly one with a fair bit of work by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Feb 28, 2025Full prediction & timeline →
“we do need to move quickly if we are to achieve a trillion dollar deficit reduction in financial year 2026. It requires saving $4 billion per day, every day from now through the end of September. But we can do it, and we will do it”— Elon Musk, Feb 26, 2025 · 00:09:18
“I think it's about about four weeks to bring them back”— Elon Musk, Feb 18, 2025 · 00:15:44
“Our goal is to ramp up Optimus production faster than maybe anything has ever been ramped, meaning like aspirationally in order of magnitude, ramp per year. If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.”— Elon Musk, Jan 29, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If you say like 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. So on the order of 10 billion”— Elon Musk, Oct 29, 2024Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think 20 to 30% vehicle growth next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames' — 'before 2027, let me put it that way', at a price below $30,000.”— Elon Musk, Oct 10, 2024 · 12:06
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.”— Elon Musk, Oct 10, 2024 · 11:50
“I would say major iterations are less than two years. It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 1, 2024 · 49:43
“Tesla this year we'll do over 100 billion in revenue”— Elon Musk, Aug 3, 2024 · 01:18:31
“It depends somewhat on the regulatory approval, the rate at which we get regulatory approvals. So, we’re hoping to do 10 by the end of this year, total of 10. So, eight more.”— Elon Musk, Aug 2, 2024 · 2:28
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”— Elon Musk, Jul 1, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside customers. That will be a production Version 2 of Optimus.”— Elon Musk, Jul 1, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“it's going to be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year. Over 7 million vehicles.”— Elon Musk, Jun 13, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Optimus I think is a $25… literally a $25 trillion market cap situation.”— Elon Musk, Jun 13, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”— Elon Musk, Jun 13, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 23, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“So my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship.”— Elon Musk, Apr 4, 2024 · 00:23:02
“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which is insane.”— Elon Musk, Apr 4, 2024 · 00:11:30
“I'd be surprised if it's, if it's longer than about three years to be landing starships on the moon”— Elon Musk, Mar 25, 2024 · 00:26:41
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”— Elon Musk, Mar 25, 2024 · 00:26:41
“we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year”— Elon Musk, Mar 18, 2024 · 00:00:12
“We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours pad turnaround by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Mar 18, 2024 · 00:15:32
“And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.”— Elon Musk, Mar 18, 2024 · 00:34:51
“if we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year”— Elon Musk, Oct 5, 2023 · 00:04:26
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.”— Elon Musk, Oct 1, 2023Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got summer shutdowns to for a lot of factory upgrades.”— Elon Musk, Jul 19, 2023Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“So I don't know, I'm guessing probably towards the end of this year would be good timing to find someone else to run the company because I think it should be in a stable position around, you know, the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Feb 15, 2023 · 00:15:36
“As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably.”— Elon Musk, Jan 25, 2023Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we will be about, hopefully, sort of roughly cash flow break even. That's what I expect for next year”— Elon Musk, Dec 21, 2022 · 00:35:52
“We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2022 · 34:00
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2022 · 33:30
“We're hopeful to be able to, I think from a technical standpoint FSD Beta should be, should be possible to roll out FSD Beta worldwide by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Sep 30, 2022 · 02:52:29
“I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”— Elon Musk, Sep 30, 2022 · 23:57
“So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million vehicle run rate by the end of the year. ... I think we might get close to, or we'll get Approximately at the 1.5 million mark and be exiting the year at a 2 million unit run rate.”— Elon Musk, Aug 4, 2022Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If I were to guess, and I wouldn't take this with a grain of salt, I think inflation is will decline towards the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2022Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“a year from now, I think our headcount will be higher in both Salaried and obviously in hourly”— Elon Musk, Jun 21, 2022 · 00:12:46
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 7, 2022 · 53:26
“Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for doing the refilling”— Elon Musk, Feb 10, 2022 · 01:20:46
“hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the ocean platforms as well”— Elon Musk, Feb 10, 2022 · 01:34:27
“And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.”— Elon Musk, Feb 10, 2022 · 01:14:08
“we will uh through 2022 look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year I expect”— Elon Musk, Jan 26, 2022Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We think the Model Y will be the best selling vehicle of any kind globally. ... I think we've got a good chance of it being the best selling vehicle by revenue next year and then I think quite likely to be the best selling vehicle in just of any kind numerically in 23 and 2023.”— Elon Musk, Oct 7, 2021Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We should have Dojo operational next year.”— Elon Musk, Aug 19, 2021 · 2:16:21
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this”— Elon Musk, Aug 19, 2021 · 2:07:42
“I think we feel confident of, say, at least a 50% growth year over year next year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 26, 2021Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Plus if you. That's maybe a year from now, that'll be on the order of 500 miles.”— Elon Musk, Feb 11, 2021 · 01:28:26
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”— Elon Musk, Jan 27, 2021Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.”— Elon Musk, Jan 27, 2021Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible. I'm optimistic about the future on Earth, but I think it's important to have life insurance for life as a whole.”— Elon Musk, Dec 1, 2020 · 2:08
“And so we put it out there last night, and then we'll see how it goes, and then probably release it to more people this weekend or early next week, and then just gradually step it up until – We have, hopefully, a wide release by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 21, 2020Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably somewhere between 30 to 40% growth despite a lot of very difficult circumstances”— Elon Musk, Sep 22, 2020 · 00:00:06
“Long term, we're expecting to make on the order of 3,000 GWh per year. I think we've got a good chance of achieving this, actually, before 2030. But I'm highly confident that we could do it by 2030.”— Elon Musk, Sep 22, 2020 · 01:03:23
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”— Elon Musk, Sep 22, 2020 · 50:47
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.”— Elon Musk, Sep 22, 2020 · 1:31:01
“we're extremely confident that we will achieve a 400 mile or greater range with the Model S”— Elon Musk, Apr 29, 2020Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“we're going to talk about this in battery day, which is probably April”— Elon Musk, Jan 29, 2020Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't break.”— Elon Musk, Nov 21, 2019Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”— Elon Musk, Nov 21, 2019 · 5:31
“Starting price of $39,900.”— Elon Musk, Nov 21, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving feature this year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Our plan is in basically one to two months to do the 20 kilometer or 65,000 foot flight with Starship Mark 1.”— Elon Musk, Sep 28, 2019 · 00:50:02
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy Grail of space.”— Elon Musk, Sep 28, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”— Elon Musk, Sep 28, 2019 · 53:34
“From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable next quarter.”— Elon Musk, Jul 24, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We hope to have this aspirationally in a human patient before the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 16, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“the next thing is probably the Falcon Heavy launch at the end of this month”— Elon Musk, Jun 13, 2019 · 00:42:52
“the pickup truck which we hope to unveil hopefully this summer”— Elon Musk, Jun 11, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”— Elon Musk, Apr 24, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We don't want to talk too much about the next-generation chip, but it'll be at least, let's say, three times better than the current system. About two years away.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 01:43:21
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:12:44
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do is improve the software.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:10:39
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:06:08
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:13:55
“And then sometime in 2021 we'll have the sort of standard version which will be have a $39,000 price point.”— Elon Musk, Mar 14, 2019 · 00:03:11
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”— Elon Musk, Mar 14, 2019 · 19:20
“what's my guess for 2021 is one and a half million cars for Tesla”— Elon Musk, Feb 19, 2019 · 00:06:07
“expecting deliveries just this year to be about fifty percent higher than last year”— Elon Musk, Jan 30, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.”— Elon Musk, Jan 30, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“we still anticipate doing hopper flights next year”— Elon Musk, Sep 17, 2018 · 01:01:06
“I should say we are hoping to identify a gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Aug 2, 2018Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We'll aim for a million in 2020, but somewhere between half a million and a million seems pretty likely.”— Elon Musk, Aug 1, 2018Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than three years.”— Elon Musk, Jun 14, 2018 · 18:01
“the next generation Supercharger. That is it's mostly finished in design and will go into production hopefully around the end of this year”— Elon Musk, Jun 5, 2018Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We're aiming to unveil the Model Y approximately March next year”— Elon Musk, Jun 5, 2018Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the first half of next year.”— Elon Musk, Mar 11, 2018 · 00:06:14
“I'm pretty sure we'll serve fairing recovery in the next six months.”— Elon Musk, Feb 6, 2018 · 00:31:51
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017 · 6:29
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed ... That is the worst case scenario.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017 · 6:54
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017Full prediction & timeline →
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017Full prediction & timeline →
“The China plan is sort of maybe something like ... a rough target of start of production in about three years.”— Elon Musk, Nov 1, 2017Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days”— Elon Musk, Sep 8, 2017 · 00:46:30Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.”— Elon Musk, Sep 8, 2017 · 00:45:57Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Aug 2, 2017Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“By the end of next year, there will be three times as many superchargers as there are today.”— Elon Musk, Jul 28, 2017 · 00:09:57
“probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours”— Elon Musk, Jul 19, 2017 · 00:01:19
“Probably in 10 years, more than a half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States.”— Elon Musk, Jul 15, 2017 · 00:13:40
“So we're aiming for that, you know, to hit the roads in 2019 approximately and probably the demand for the Model Y will exceed the demand for the Model 3.”— Elon Musk, Jun 6, 2017Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“And then hopefully by early next year we'll be in production with the Spanish tile and the French slate versions.”— Elon Musk, Jun 6, 2017Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 28, 2017 · 00:28:25
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account.”— Elon Musk, Nov 17, 2016 · 1:25
“Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably just pack the pressurized space with cargo. Early missions will be heavily weighted towards cargo. First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“we expect to reach feature parity following field validation of Hardware 2, probably in December”— Elon Musk, Oct 19, 2016 · 00:05:08
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 19, 2016 · 6:25
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could only go every two years.”— Elon Musk, Sep 27, 2016Full prediction & timeline →
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. ... With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.”— Elon Musk, Jun 2, 2016 · 22:00
“I mean, it's fair to say like probably like, you know, our 2020 target for volume is, you know, closer to, you know, maybe close to 1 million vehicles in 2020 or something like that.”— Elon Musk, May 4, 2016Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Well, I mean, obviously, if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production of on the order of 500,000 cars in 2018, can't be more than sort of two years to get there.”— Elon Musk, May 4, 2016Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“You know, as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year.”— Elon Musk, May 4, 2016Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year”— Elon Musk, Feb 10, 2016Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.”— Elon Musk, Dec 21, 2015 · 00:07:03
“I think within the next year we'll be able to land the rocket intact”— Elon Musk, Nov 6, 2015 · 00:41:38
“solar power will be the single largest source of electricity generation by the midpoint of the century”— Elon Musk, Oct 2, 2015 · 00:00:00
“probably we could break a thousand kilometers within a year or two”— Elon Musk, Sep 15, 2015 · 00:06:24
“I do remain confident about half a million cars in 2020, and, you know, maybe being able to exceed that.”— Elon Musk, Aug 5, 2015Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“we are hoping to show off the model 3 in approximately March of next year”— Elon Musk, May 6, 2015Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going to start shipping in approximately three or four months.”— Elon Musk, Apr 30, 2015 · 11:09
“I should correct, even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I'm still confident we could do the 55,000 cars.”— Elon Musk, Feb 11, 2015Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.”— Elon Musk, Feb 11, 2015Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years a year”— Elon Musk, Jan 13, 2015 · 00:09:00
“The Mars transport system will be a completely new architecture. Am hoping to present that towards the end of this year”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2015View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We feel pretty confident with at least a 50% increase next year, and a 50% increase the year after.”— Elon Musk, Nov 5, 2014Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the first time, but there's a lot of launches that will occur over the next year — there's at least a dozen launches that will occur over the next 12 months — and I think it's quite likely, probably 80, 90 percent likely, that one of those flights will be able to land and refly.”— Elon Musk, Oct 24, 2014 · 10:55
“We feel confident of exiting next year at 2,000 units a week of production and demand, absent some macroeconomic shock.”— Elon Musk, Jul 31, 2014Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exists without touching any controls.”— Elon Musk, Jun 3, 2014Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in the second quarter next year.”— Elon Musk, Jun 3, 2014Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably, I guess, I don't know, seven or eight years from now, half of all cars produced will be fully autonomous.”— Elon Musk, May 16, 2014 · 00:16:58
“completing that certification this year”— Elon Musk, Mar 5, 2014 · 00:50:16
“we'll start delivering cars in the the first quarter. Uh probably either we're aiming for February but it could be March”— Elon Musk, Nov 5, 2013Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Just like Superchargers alone, we're aiming to have essentially all of North America covered in detail by the end of next year ... we expect to be able to travel anywhere in Europe, or at least Western Europe and many parts of Eastern Europe by the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Nov 5, 2013Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”— Elon Musk, Aug 12, 2013View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or free”— Elon Musk, Jun 20, 2013 · 8:17
“we would achieve at least a 25% gross margin by the end of the year”— Elon Musk, Apr 2, 2013 · 00:05:05
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else.”— Elon Musk, Feb 27, 2013 · 6:17
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.”— Elon Musk, Feb 27, 2013 · 11:17
“Tesla is going to cut the payment time in half of the loan”— Elon Musk, Feb 26, 2013 · 00:33:01
“we we we really are have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter”— Elon Musk, Feb 20, 2013Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I mean, I'm quite certain that we'll deliver more than 20,000 cars this year.”— Elon Musk, Feb 20, 2013Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at least at the 30,000 unit”— Elon Musk, Jul 25, 2012Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We expect to start delivering in Europe early next year, and we have not yet announced final pricing for Europe.”— Elon Musk, May 9, 2012Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”— Elon Musk, Feb 9, 2012 · 10:35
“we're hoping to have the first one installed um between San Francisco and N La probably in the Jan or February time frame”— Elon Musk, Nov 2, 2011Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“the plan is to have a an unveiling of the model X prototype um at the end of this year so some probably in the mid December time frame”— Elon Musk, Aug 3, 2011Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2011 · 13:45
“I think we'll see it sort of approach $200 and beyond by 2010, 1112, somewhere in there”— Elon Musk, Aug 11, 2009 · 00:17:51
“And then later this year we'll be launching our big rocket from Cape Canaveral.”— Elon Musk, Aug 11, 2009 · 00:04:59
“And then next year we go to the space station for the first time.”— Elon Musk, Apr 7, 2009 · 00:59:19
“Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft from Falcon 9.”— Elon Musk, Apr 7, 2009 · 00:59:45
“Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March of next year, basically early next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 8, 2003 · 00:23:03
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