All 189 predictions Elon Musk has made on the record, ordered by when he said it — not by deadline. Filter by where he said it: his own tweets, an interview or keynote, or an earnings call. Every one cited to his own words.
“I think we'll we'll have landed our first people on the moon um in in less than 5 years. We if if things go well uh we we might be able to put the first astronauts on the moon in uh 2 to 3 years and then and then expand rapidly from there so that in say 10 years from now we there there are thousands of people on the moon”— Elon Musk, Jul 8, 2026 · 4:13
“...to get to roughly an annualized rate of a gigawatt per year by the end of next year, in terms of space AI compute.”— Elon Musk, Jun 8, 2026 · 26:15
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI5.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfortable prediction.”— Elon Musk, Mar 13, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“you can mark my words. in 36 months but probably closer to 30 months the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space.”— Elon Musk, Feb 5, 2026 · 4:13
“going as fast as possible to get uh AI5 Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. that'll probably happen around the second quarterish of next year hopefully. and then AI6 would hopefully follow less than a year later.”— Elon Musk, Feb 5, 2026 · 28:55
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.”— Elon Musk, Jan 28, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”— Elon Musk, Jan 28, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory with a long-term goal of having a million units a year. I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3.”— Elon Musk, Jan 28, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.”— Elon Musk, Jan 28, 2026Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public.”— Elon Musk, Jan 22, 2026 · 24:02
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a similar timing, timing for China.”— Elon Musk, Jan 22, 2026 · 25:30
“I'd say towards the end of the year.”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2026Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2026Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we'll hit AGI next year in 2026.”— Elon Musk, Jan 6, 2026Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“in 3 years or less my my guess is goods and services output will exceed the rate of inflation like money goods and services growth will exceed money money supply growth in about 3 years. Maybe after those three years you have deflation and then interest rates go to zero and then the debt is a smaller problem than it is”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2025 · 50:39
“my prediction is less than in less than 20 years working will be optional. working at all will be optional like a hobby pretty much”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2025 · 31:33
“We're scaling up the number of cars to, what happens if you have a thousand cars? Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area”— Elon Musk, Oct 31, 2025 · 1:06:30
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start towards the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 22, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“the chipset has to be modified to add these frequencies and that probably is a 2-year time frame. So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around 2 years.”— Elon Musk, Sep 10, 2025 · 17:08
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla fleet.”— Elon Musk, Jul 23, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”— Elon Musk, Jul 23, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolutely provide superhuman abilities via Neuralink in the future.”— Elon Musk, Apr 3, 2025 · 00:40:43
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it back intact this year. We might be able to refly one with a fair bit of work by the end of this year.”— Elon Musk, Feb 28, 2025Full prediction & timeline →
“Our goal is to ramp up Optimus production faster than maybe anything has ever been ramped, meaning like aspirationally in order of magnitude, ramp per year. If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.”— Elon Musk, Jan 29, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.”— Elon Musk, Jan 29, 2025Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames' — 'before 2027, let me put it that way', at a price below $30,000.”— Elon Musk, Oct 10, 2024 · 12:06
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.”— Elon Musk, Oct 10, 2024 · 11:50
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”— Elon Musk, Oct 10, 2024 · 19:55
“I would say major iterations are less than two years. It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 1, 2024 · 49:43
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”— Elon Musk, Jul 1, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside customers. That will be a production Version 2 of Optimus.”— Elon Musk, Jul 1, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Optimus I think is a $25… literally a $25 trillion market cap situation.”— Elon Musk, Jun 13, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”— Elon Musk, Jun 13, 2024Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.”— Elon Musk, Oct 1, 2023Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2022 · 34:00
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”— Elon Musk, Nov 30, 2022 · 33:30
“The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we're able to go to wide beta for all full self-driving customers in North America this year.”— Elon Musk, Nov 1, 2022Full prediction & timeline →
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”— Elon Musk, Oct 19, 2022Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”— Elon Musk, Sep 30, 2022 · 23:57
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”— Elon Musk, Apr 7, 2022 · 53:26
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”— Elon Musk, Jan 26, 2022Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We should have Dojo operational next year.”— Elon Musk, Aug 19, 2021 · 2:16:21
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this”— Elon Musk, Aug 19, 2021 · 2:07:42
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”— Elon Musk, Jan 27, 2021Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.”— Elon Musk, Jan 27, 2021Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible. I'm optimistic about the future on Earth, but I think it's important to have life insurance for life as a whole.”— Elon Musk, Dec 1, 2020 · 2:08
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”— Elon Musk, Sep 22, 2020 · 50:47
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.”— Elon Musk, Sep 22, 2020 · 1:31:01
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 9, 2020 · 0:26
“Well, I think it's -- probably will make sense to have like to enable car sharing in advance of the kind of sort of drive robotaxi fleet because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators.”— Elon Musk, Jan 29, 2020Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't break.”— Elon Musk, Nov 21, 2019Watch / read the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”— Elon Musk, Nov 21, 2019 · 5:31
“Starting price of $39,900.”— Elon Musk, Nov 21, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available until the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving feature this year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The critical breakthrough that's necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital rocket. This is basically the Holy Grail of space.”— Elon Musk, Sep 28, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”— Elon Musk, Sep 28, 2019 · 53:34
“We hope to have this aspirationally in a human patient before the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 16, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”— Elon Musk, Apr 24, 2019Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:12:44
“All Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do is improve the software.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019Full prediction & timeline →
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:10:39
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:06:08
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2019 · 3:13:55
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”— Elon Musk, Mar 14, 2019 · 19:20
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than three years.”— Elon Musk, Jun 14, 2018 · 18:01
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly production rate of 2,500 vehicles by the end of March and 5,000 by the end of Q2.”— Elon Musk, Feb 7, 2018Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017 · 6:29
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed ... That is the worst case scenario.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017 · 6:54
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017Full prediction & timeline →
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”— Elon Musk, Nov 16, 2017Full prediction & timeline →
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly four ships — two of which would be crewed.”— Elon Musk, Sep 29, 2017 · 38:10
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for a launch in about five years. Five years seems like a long time to me... That's our goal: to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous.”— Elon Musk, Sep 29, 2017 · 37:31
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account.”— Elon Musk, Nov 17, 2016 · 1:25
“Probably just pack the pressurized space with cargo. Early missions will be heavily weighted towards cargo. First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.”— Elon Musk, Oct 23, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year.”— Elon Musk, Oct 19, 2016 · 6:25
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could only go every two years.”— Elon Musk, Sep 27, 2016Full prediction & timeline →
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. ... With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.”— Elon Musk, Jul 20, 2016View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.”— Elon Musk, Jun 2, 2016 · 22:00
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going to start shipping in approximately three or four months.”— Elon Musk, Apr 30, 2015 · 11:09
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”— Elon Musk, Mar 17, 2015 · 10:20
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.”— Elon Musk, Feb 11, 2015Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the first time, but there's a lot of launches that will occur over the next year — there's at least a dozen launches that will occur over the next 12 months — and I think it's quite likely, probably 80, 90 percent likely, that one of those flights will be able to land and refly.”— Elon Musk, Oct 24, 2014 · 10:55
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto.”— Elon Musk, Oct 1, 2014 · 0:06
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in the second quarter next year.”— Elon Musk, Jun 3, 2014Read the full transcript ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”— Elon Musk, Aug 12, 2013View the source ↗Full prediction & timeline →
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or free”— Elon Musk, Jun 20, 2013 · 8:17
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network, which charges at five times the rate of anything else.”— Elon Musk, Feb 27, 2013 · 6:17
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.”— Elon Musk, Feb 27, 2013 · 11:17
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”— Elon Musk, Feb 9, 2012 · 10:35
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2011 · 13:45
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”— Elon Musk, Apr 22, 2011 · 13:52
“We expect to see the vehicle on the pad in November or December of next year… Expecting to see a launch sometime in 2013.”— Elon Musk, Apr 5, 2011 · 21:00
Comment on predictions and back the project. We email you a one-tap sign-in link — no password to remember.
By signing in you agree to keep it civil and lawful. We never sell your email.