Pending
Pending
AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year to ~4%
“My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.”
Politics & Economy predictions, scored.
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Pending
Pending
Pending
US output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation
“In 3 years or less, my guess is goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth in about 3 years.…”
Pending
Pending
US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth,…”
Pending
Pending
US economic output grows more than 50% by 2030 thanks to AI
“If this is rephrased as “useful output of US”, then >50% growth by 2030 due to SI is extremely likely, unle…”
Pending
Pending
Global economy doubles in 5–7 years
“I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.”
Pending
Pending
AI+robots more than double the global economy in under 10 years
“AI+robots will more than double the global economy in less than 10 years”
Pending
Pending
Economy 10x bigger in 10 years
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfor…”
Pending
Missed
Missed
Missed
A pretty difficult recession in 2023
“As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty diffi…”
Delivered
Delivered
Inflation declines toward the end of 2022
“If I were to guess, and I wouldn't take this with a grain of salt, I think inflation is will decline toward…”
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