PendingTerafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years.”
— Elon Musk · Dec 24, 2025 · Musk X post on double/triple-digit US growth, Dec 24 2025 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened
Fetched Sep 16 2026: BEA second estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP is +1.5% annualized (Q1 2026 +2.1%). That is not double-digit US growth. The 12–18 month window from the Dec 24 2025 statement runs through Jun 24 2027 (L10 generous end); the card deadline 2030-12-24 is the ~5-year triple-digit clause. Status stays pending. BEA GDP page fetched Sep 16 2026 — Q2 2026 second estimate +1.5%; Q1 +2.1%; not double-digit ↗
The Progression
Dec 24, 2025
The promise: “Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years.” · Musk X post on double/triple-digit US growth, Dec 24 2025 ↗
Today · Sep 17, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,559 days left. Still waiting.
US GDP growth projections tied to AI advancements and applied intelligence
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-09-16General’s record
Delivered
0
0% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
2
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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