Pending
Pending
Tesla shows Optimus doing unscripted tasks on video within a month or two
“So I want to release a video where it is Optimus doing things that are not pre-programmed. I think that is …”
Robots predictions, scored.
Optimus: from dancing human in a suit to the thing 80% of Tesla's value rides on.
The Feed
16 CLAIMS
16 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
Second Optimus factory at Giga Texas starts production around summer 2027
“And we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start pr…”
Pending
Pending
Optimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
goalposts: 2026 → 2027 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
goalposts: 2030 → Jul 2030 → 2026 → no date → 2027 · moved 4×
Pending
Pending
Selling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to th…”
Pending
Pending
Pending
Optimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
Pending
Pending
Optimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
goalposts: 2030 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
At least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years
“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”
Pending
Pending
Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
Missed
Missed
Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
Missed
Missed
1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
goalposts: 2025 · moved 0×
Missed
Missed
Optimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
Partial
Delivered
Delivered
Optimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
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