PendingOptimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
Robots predictions, scored.
Optimus: from dancing human in a suit to the thing 80% of Tesla's value rides on.
The Feed
20 CLAIMS
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Pending
PendingOptimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start tow…”
PendingSelling Optimus robots to the public by end of 2027
“Probably sometime next year, I'd say by the end of next year, I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to th…”
Pending
PendingOptimus $20-30k price point
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”
PendingOptimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
PendingOptimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
PendingOptimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
PendingAt least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years
“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”
PendingWell over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
PendingFremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Opt…”
MissedOptimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
MissedOptimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
Missed1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Missed5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
MissedGenuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
MissedA 'legion' of Optimus robots in 2025
“There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year.”
MissedOptimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
PartialOptimus performing factory tasks 2024
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”
DeliveredOptimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
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