AI illustration: Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
GeneralAI
Pending

Terafab, AI5 and Dojo: every Tesla chip promise

When will Tesla's Terafab and AI5 chip be ready?

On March 21, 2026, Elon Musk said Terafab and the AI5 chip by the end of 2027. It hasn't happened yet, with 431 days left. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: still pending. twoweeks.lol tracks 6 Musk claims about Tesla's chips, Dojo and Terafab (9 statements): 1 delivered (0 on time), 1 missed or cancelled, 4 still pending.

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“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
— Elon Musk · Mar 21, 2026 · Elon Musk on X, Mar 21 2026 — official TERAFAB announcement (a terawatt of compute/year, ~80% space / 20% ground) ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened

Fetched Oct 26 2026 from the Tesla Q3 2026 earnings-call transcript: Musk said Terafab aspires to useful chips at volume around Q3 2028 (already carded as #511 vs #267) and that AI5 'comes in, hopefully in volume, around April of next year.' #132's deadline is keyed to AI5 volume in 2027, which that line restates rather than moves. Wikipedia/construction 2028 is the building, not a new Elon date for this card. Status stays pending. Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call transcript — Terafab volume Q3 2028 is #511; AI5 volume still 2027 ↗

The Progression

Tesla's chip promises started with Dojo. At AI Day in August 2021 Musk said Dojo would be operational the next year. Tesla announced the start of Dojo production in July 2023. In June 2025 he said Dojo 2 would start coming online that year. In August 2025 he shut Dojo down and moved to the AI5 and AI6 chips.

AI5 dates have moved since. In November 2025 he said samples in 2026 and high volume only in 2027. In February 2026 he said production around Q2 2027. In October 2026 he put AI5 in Optimus around April 2027. Samsung's Texas fab is in trial production of AI5.

Terafab is the plan to make the chips in-house. In March 2026 Musk said, "We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips." In September 2026 he said its R&D line would make something useful by the end of 2027. In October 2026 he put useful chips at volume around Q3 2028. The Grimes County, Texas site is in early site work.

Mar 21, 2026
The promise: “We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.” · Elon Musk on X, Mar 21 2026 — official TERAFAB announcement (a terawatt of compute/year, ~80% space / 20% ground) ↗
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Status: Pending · 431 days left. Still waiting.

At a March 21, 2026 event at Austin's Seaholm Power Plant, Musk unveiled Terafab, a Tesla/SpaceX (later joined by Intel) chip-fab venture he says is needed because existing fabs cover only about 2% of his companies' projected chip demand. Stated targets: AI5 small-batch production in late 2026, volume production in 2027, scaling toward one terawatt of AI compute output per year — against analyst estimates that a full build-out costs trillions.

Every statement, dated

9 STATEMENTS · AS OF OCTOBER 26, 2026
Every statement Elon Musk made on Tesla's chips, Dojo and Terafab, oldest first. Outcome is how each statement was graded on its own.
Date saidWhat he saidDeadline givenSourceOutcome
“We should have Dojo operational next year.”end of 2022Tesla AI Day 2021 (official…Partial · 0.5 years late
“We start bringing Dojo 2 online later this year.”end of 2025@elonmusk on XCancelled · shelved
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible in 2027.”end of 2027Elon Musk on X, Nov 4 2025 (AI5…Pending · 431 days left
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'll probably happen around the second…”Jun 30, 2027Elon Musk on the Dwarkesh…Pending · 247 days left
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”end of 2027Elon Musk on X, Mar 21 2026…Pending · 431 days left
“Terafab will be 50 times the size of the Pentagon when complete”none givenElon Musk on X (Aug 7 2026)Pending · no deadline given
“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”end of 2027All-In Summit interview, Elon…Pending · 431 days left
“Our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028.”Sep 30, 2028Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call…Pending · 705 days left
“There is another milestone that I think important we want to get to, which is to integrate the Tesla AI 5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go…”Apr 30, 2027Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call…Pending · 186 days left

Every other Tesla chip, Dojo and Terafab promise

5 MORE CLAIMS ON THIS PAGE
Partial0.5 years late

Dojo supercomputer operational in 2022

“We should have Dojo operational next year.”
Elon Musk · said Aug 19, 2021 · due Dec 31, 2022 · Tesla AI Day 2021 (official Tesla YouTube channel), Aug 19 2021 ↗ · #141

What happened: At AI Day 2021 Musk said Tesla's Dojo supercomputer should be 'fully operational' the next year. The 2022 deadline passed unmet. Dojo then arrived late and diminished: Tesla's own Q2 2023 shareholder letter (July 19, 2023) announced the start of production of Dojo training computers, and Musk said in Jan 2024 that 'Dojo is working' and 'doing training jobs' — though the production start was contested, exaflop targets were never met, and Nvidia remained Tesla's real training backbone. In August 2025 the program was shut down outright (team disbanded, chip efforts converged on AI5/AI6). Graded partial: it operated, late and below the promise, before being killed — 'cancelled' is reserved for goals renounced without ever being achieved. Tesla Q2 2023 shareholder letter (SEC) — 'started production of Dojo training computers' ↗

Cancelledshelved

Bring Dojo 2 online in 2025

“We start bringing Dojo 2 online later this year.”
Elon Musk · said Jun 5, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2025 · @elonmusk on X ↗ · #222

What happened: Tesla never brought Dojo 2 online: Musk shut down the entire Dojo project and disbanded the team in August 2025, calling Dojo 2 'an evolutionary dead end' and pivoting to AI5/AI6.

Pending186 days left

AI5 chip production 2026-2027

“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible in 2027.”
Elon Musk · said Nov 4, 2025 · due Apr 30, 2027 · Elon Musk on X, Nov 4 2025 (AI5 production timeline) ↗ · #86

Elon Musk first made this promise on Nov 4, 2025, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2027. He has said it 3 times on the record. None of them moved the date. The latest target is Apr 30, 2027. It has not happened yet.

Nov 4, 2025
First promise · due Dec 31, 2027
“We will have samples and maybe a small number of units in 2026, but high volume production is only possible in 2027.” · Elon Musk on X, Nov 4 2025 (AI5 production timeline) ↗
Pending
Feb 5, 2026
Restated · due Jun 30, 2027
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'll probably happen around the second quarter-ish of next year, hopefully. And then AI6 would hopefully follow less than a year later.” · Elon Musk on the Dwarkesh Podcast (published Feb 5 2026), AI5 chip segment ~28:55 28:55 ↗
Pending
Oct 21, 2026
Restated · due Apr 30, 2027
“There is another milestone that I think important we want to get to, which is to integrate the Tesla AI 5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year.” · Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, Oct 21 2026 ↗
Pending
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Pending · 186 days left. 3 statements, goalpost moved 2×.
Pendingno deadline given

Terafab will be 50× the size of the Pentagon when complete

“Terafab will be 50 times the size of the Pentagon when complete”
Elon Musk · said Aug 7, 2026 · Elon Musk on X (Aug 7 2026) ↗ · #243

What happened: Fetched Oct 17 2026: Terafab is still a planned Grimes County, Texas chip campus. County/state filings describe four phases through 2036 and ~100 million sq ft at full build-out; Phase 1 is 2026–28. Site work/clearing reported, not a completed 50×-Pentagon building. No deadline. Status stays pending. ENR Oct 8 2026 (fetched Oct 17) — Terafab four-phase plan through 2036; not complete ↗

Pending705 days left

TeraFab R&D line makes something useful by end of 2027

“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale”
Elon Musk · said Sep 15, 2026 · due Sep 30, 2028 · All-In Summit interview, Elon Musk speaking (published Sep 15 2026) ↗ · #267

Elon Musk first made this promise on Sep 15, 2026, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2027. He has said it 2 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. The latest target is Sep 30, 2028. It has not happened yet.

Sep 15, 2026
First promise · due Dec 31, 2027
“And we probably will be able to. Like something useful by the end of next year. Not at scale” · All-In Summit interview, Elon Musk speaking (published Sep 15 2026) ↗
Pending
Oct 21, 2026
Goalpost moved · due Sep 30, 2028
“Our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028.” · Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, Oct 21 2026 ↗
Pending
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Pending · 705 days left. 2 statements, goalpost moved 1×.
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LAST CHECKED 2026-10-26

Questions and answers

Is Terafab built yet?

No. As of October 26, 2026, Elon Musk's promise of Terafab and the AI5 chip has not come true; the current target is end of 2027. Fetched Oct 26 2026 from the Tesla Q3 2026 earnings-call transcript: Musk said Terafab aspires to useful chips at volume around Q3 2028 (already carded as #511 vs #267) and that AI5 'comes in, hopefully in volume, around April of next year.' #132's deadline… (Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call transcript — Terafab volume Q3 2028 is #511; AI5 volume still 2027)

When did Elon Musk first announce Terafab?

On March 21, 2026, Elon Musk said: “We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.” (source). That set the date at end of 2027.

General’s record

Delivered
1
17% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
5
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
14
On the clock now. All 20 General claims →

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