PendingRoadster 0-60 in under 1 second
“0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part”
Cars & Energy predictions, scored.
Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, solar roofs — hardware promises with price tags.
The Feed
37 CLAIMS
37 shown
Pending
PendingRoadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
PendingRoadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Pending
PendingTesla Roadster enters production
“We expected this to be available in 2020.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2027 → 2028 · moved 7×
Pending20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
PendingSolar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
MissedCybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
Missed$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Cancelled
MissedYear of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
MissedCybertruck shatterproof glass
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't…”
Missed'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
CancelledBattery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
MissedSolar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Cancelled'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
DeliveredNew Model Y variant enters US production by end of 2026
“This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.”
DeliveredModel S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
PartialTesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateTesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Partial4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Delivered · LateCybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
DeliveredCybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Delivered · LateTesla Semi production in 2019
“Production begins 2019. So if you order now, get the truck in two years.”
DeliveredSemi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Delivered · LateGiga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Delivered · Late500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
DeliveredShanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
Delivered · LateModel 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
DeliveredModel 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
DeliveredAustralia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
DeliveredTesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Delivered · LateModel X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Partial$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Delivered · LateDrive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
DeliveredModel S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
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