Pending
Tesla Roadster production 2027
“The Roadster production version will be unveiled on April 1, 2026, and production would begin in 2027.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2027 · moved 6×
Cars & Energy predictions, scored.
Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, solar roofs — hardware promises with price tags.
The Feed
50 CLAIMSPending
Pending
Roadster 0-60 in under 1 second
“0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part”
Pending
Roadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
Pending
Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Pending
Pending
20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
Pending
Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
Missed
Roadster debut in a month or so (May/June 2026)
“We may be able to debut that in a month or so. It requires a lot of testing and validation before we can ac…”
Missed
Roadster production version debuts April 2026
“The next generation Roadster which we're hoping to debut in April... It's gonna be something out of this wo…”
Missed
Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2025
“With respect to Roadster, we've completed most of the engineering. And I think there's still some upgrades …”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 5×
Missed
Tesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 → 2022 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 3×
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2023
“Assuming 2022 is not mega drama, new Roadster should ship in 2023.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 · moved 3×
Missed
$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2022
“Finishing engineering this year, production starts next year. Aiming to have release candidate design driva…”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 · moved 2×
Missed
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 12-18 months (mid-late 2021)
“Tesla plans to tentatively build the Roadster in California and production would be in the next 12 to 18 mo…”
goalposts: 2020 → mid-2021 · moved 1×
Missed
4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2020
“Musk floated a starting price of $200,000, indicating that delivery would start by the year 2020.”
Missed
Tesla Semi production in 2019
“Elon Musk first unveiled the Tesla Semi in 2017 with a promised 2019 launch.”
Missed
Year of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed
500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
Missed
Missed
'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
Missed
20,000 Model 3s per month by December 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
Missed
Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Missed
Model X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Missed
Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
Missed
Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Missed
'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
Delivered
Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
Delivered
Delivered · Late
Cybertruck production late 2021
“The company anticipates that production of the lower-priced Cybertrucks should begin in late 2021 with the …”
goalposts: 2021 → 2022 → late 2022 → 2023 · moved 3×
Delivered · Late
Cybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
Delivered
Cybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Delivered
Semi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Delivered · Late
Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Delivered
Model Y production early 2020
“Tesla's Model Y would not enter production for another two years and two months.”
Delivered
Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
Partial
$25,000 Tesla by 2019
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Delivered · Late
Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
Delivered
Model 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
Delivered
Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
Delivered
Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Partial
Supercharging free for Model S buyers, forever (2013)
“At Tesla we developed something called a Supercharging technology, and we're offering that if you buy a Mod…”
Partial
$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Delivered · Late
Model X production end of 2013, bulk production in 2014
“We'll start production towards the end of next year, probably deliver a few units, and then bulk production…”
Delivered · Late
Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
Delivered
Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
Disputed
Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
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