Pending
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Future of Humanity predictions, scored.
A million people on Mars. A self-sustaining city. The species-level bets.
The Feed
8 CLAIMS
8 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
goalposts: 2030 → Jul 2031 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Humans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: Apr 2021 → 2024 → 2025 → 2026 → 2024 → 2028 → 2029 → 2031 → Jan 2036 · moved 8×
Pending
Pending
Working will be optional in less than 20 years
“My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby…”
Pending
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
Pending
Pending
A legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
Missed
Missed
Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
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