Pending
Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 → 2029 · moved 2×
Future of Humanity predictions, scored.
A million people on Mars. A self-sustaining city. The species-level bets.
The Feed
8 CLAIMSPending
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Pending
AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars with one million people.”
Cancelled
Humans on Mars by 2026
“Highly confident SpaceX will land humans on Mars about six years from now. If we get lucky, maybe four years.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Missed
Humans on Mars by 2024
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
Missed
Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
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