PendingFirst crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Future of Humanity predictions, scored.
A million people on Mars. A self-sustaining city. The species-level bets.
The Feed
9 CLAIMS
9 shown
Pending
PendingAI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
PendingWorking will be optional in less than 20 years
“My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby…”
PendingSelf-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
PendingA legion of Optimus robots will form the first Von Neumann probe
“A legion of Optimi combined with solar panels will constitute the first Von Neumann probe”
MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
MissedClose to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.