Pending
Pending
Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
General predictions, scored.
The predictions too big for any one company. Scorecard so far: 1 delivered · 5 missed or cancelled · 14 still open.
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20 CLAIMS
20 shown
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~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027
“Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder…”
Pending
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AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year to ~4%
“My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.”
Pending
Pending
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Memory chip shortage lasts through 2027, may ease in 2028
“For sure in 2027, but if China ramps LP5 & LP6 as fast as they’ve ramped other manufactured products, then …”
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US output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation
“In 3 years or less, my guess is goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth in about 3 years.…”
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US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth,…”
Pending
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US economic output grows more than 50% by 2030 thanks to AI
“If this is rephrased as “useful output of US”, then >50% growth by 2030 due to SI is extremely likely, unle…”
Pending
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Global economy doubles in 5–7 years
“I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.”
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AI+robots more than double the global economy in under 10 years
“AI+robots will more than double the global economy in less than 10 years”
Pending
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Economy 10x bigger in 10 years
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfor…”
Pending
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Pending
Working will be optional in less than 20 years
“My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby…”
Missed
Missed
DOGE achieves a $1 trillion deficit reduction in fiscal year 2026
“we do need to move quickly if we are to achieve a trillion dollar deficit reduction in financial year 2026.…”
Missed
Missed
Missed
A pretty difficult recession in 2023
“As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty diffi…”
Missed
Missed
Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Missed
Missed
Oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2010-2012
“I think we'll see it sort of approach $200 and beyond by 2010, 1112, somewhere in there”
Delivered
Delivered
Inflation declines toward the end of 2022
“If I were to guess, and I wouldn't take this with a grain of salt, I think inflation is will decline toward…”
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