Only 16% of Elon Musk's resolved predictions arrived on time

The tracker now has 185 verified predictions, and 117 of them have resolved — the deadline passed and reality rendered a verdict. Here is the split as of July 9, 2026:

• 19 delivered on time — 16% of everything resolved.
• 30 delivered late — the promise eventually shipped, a median of roughly twice the promised timeline (the Elon Time multiplier sits at ×2.1).
• 19 partial — the substance arrived with a material catch: supervised where autonomous was promised, a fraction of the promised scale, or done by customers instead of the company.
• 41 missed — never arrived, and the goal was never withdrawn. The clocks are still running on the broken promises board.
• 7 cancelled — publicly walked away from, like the $39,900 Cybertruck and the battery-swap network.
• 1 disputed — Tesla says FSD is safer than a human driver; the data is self-reported and unaudited, so it stays contested.

Two honest observations cut against the easy dunk. First, delivered-plus-late now outnumbers the misses: he ships more of these than he whiffs — just almost never on the stated date. Second, the on-time 19 skew heavily toward SpaceX hardware milestones; the perpetually late column is dominated by autonomy promises.

The pattern in one sentence: an Elon Musk deadline is not a delivery date — it is a direction with a timestamp. Multiply by two and you will be right more often than he is.

Every number above is computed from the live dataset, where each prediction is cited to his own words — tweet, video, or earnings call. Check the math yourself: the full dataset is a free download (CC BY 4.0).