AI illustration: 80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
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Missed

80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)

“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the first time, but there's a lot of launches that will occur over the next year — there's at least a dozen launches that will occur over the next 12 months — and I think it's quite likely, probably 80, 90 percent likely, that one of those flights will be able to land and refly.”
— Elon Musk · Oct 24, 2014 · Elon Musk at the MIT AeroAstro Centennial Symposium, Oct 24 2014 (full session recording) ↗
Video: Elon Musk at the MIT AeroAstro Centennial Symposium, Oct 24 2014 (full session recording)
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — ELON MUSK AT THE MIT AEROASTRO CENTENNIAL SYMPOSIUM, OCT 24 2014 (FULL SESSION RECORDING)
What actually happened

No Falcon 9 landed within the 12-month window — the January and April 2015 barge attempts both ended in explosions and the June 2015 CRS-7 failure grounded the fleet. The first successful landing came on December 21, 2015, two months past the window, and the 'refly' half took far longer: the first reuse of a landed booster was the SES-10 mission on March 30, 2017, nearly two and a half years after the prediction. SpaceNews — SpaceX demonstrates rocket reusability with SES-10 launch (first re-flight, March 30 2017) ↗

The Progression

Oct 24, 2014
The promise: “It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the first time, but there's a lot of launches that will occur over the next year — there's at least a dozen launches that will occur over the next 12 months — and I think it's quite likely, probably 80, 90 percent likely, that one of those flights will be able to land and refly.” · Elon Musk at the MIT AeroAstro Centennial Symposium, Oct 24 2014 (full session recording) ↗
Oct 24, 2015
Deadline passed. No Falcon 9 landed within the 12-month window — the January and April 2015 barge attempts both ended in explosions and the June 2015 CRS-7 failure grounded the fleet. The first successful landing came on December 21, 2015, two months past the window, and the 'refly' half took far longer: the first reuse of a landed booster was the SES-10 mission on March 30, 2017, nearly two and a half years after the prediction. SpaceNews — SpaceX demonstrates rocket reusability with SES-10 launch (first re-flight, March 30 2017) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.

At MIT's AeroAstro Centennial Symposium in October 2014, before any Falcon 9 landing had ever been attempted on the new drone ship, Musk handicapped the odds: under 50% for the first barge attempt, but 80-90% that one of the next dozen launches would land AND refly within 12 months. The landing came 14 months later and the first re-flight took until March 2017 — the prediction's spirit eventually proved spectacularly right, just on a 2.5x timeline.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12

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