On April 13, 2018, Elon Musk promised a profitable, cash-flow-positive Tesla in Q3 and Q4 by the end of 2018. It happened, but 30 days late. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: delivered.
Delivered — at the time one of his most doubted calls. Tesla posted GAAP net income of $312M with $881M free cash flow in Q3 2018 and $139M net income in Q4 2018, its first back-to-back profitable quarters ever. (The 'no need to raise money' half held only briefly: Tesla raised ~$2.7 billion in May 2019.) CNBC — Tesla posts blowout Q3 2018 profit, shares surge ↗
In April 2018, mid-production-hell, with Tesla burning cash and analysts predicting a multi-billion-dollar capital raise, Musk tweeted at The Economist that Tesla would be profitable and cash-flow positive in both Q3 and Q4 2018 with no need to raise money. Wall Street openly scoffed — and Tesla delivered both quarters, the profitability call he got right when almost nobody believed it.
| Date said | What he said | Deadline given | Source | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “we we we really are have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter” | Mar 31, 2013 | Tesla Q4 2012 earnings call… | Delivered · on time | |
| “we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year” | end of 2016 | Tesla Q4 2015 earnings call… | Missed · 3,586 days past due | |
| “The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so…” | end of 2018 | Elon Musk on Twitter, April 13… | Delivered · 30 days late | |
| “I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.” | Mar 31, 2019 | Tesla Q4 2018 earnings call… | Missed · 2,766 days past due | |
| “From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable next quarter.” | Sep 30, 2019 | Tesla Q2 2019 earnings call… | Delivered · 23 days late |
“we we we really are have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter”
What happened: Tesla reported its first quarterly profit for Q1 2013 on May 8, 2013: $11.2M GAAP net income, $15M non-GAAP. Wikipedia: Tesla, Inc. (first quarterly profit, Q1 2013) ↗
“we anticipate uh being profitable by Gap stands in uh Q4 of this year”
What happened: Tesla reported a Q4 2016 GAAP net loss of about $121M (Feb 22, 2017). Q3 2016 had been GAAP-profitable, but Q4 was not. Tesla Q4 2016 update (GAAP net loss) ↗
“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.”
What happened: Musk was optimistic about a Q1 2019 profit and every quarter after. Tesla reported a Q1 2019 GAAP net loss of $702 million. CNBC Apr 24 2019 — Tesla Q1 2019 loss ↗
“From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable next quarter.”
What happened: Musk expected Tesla to be profitable in Q3 2019. Tesla reported a surprise Q3 2019 net profit of $143 million. Ars Technica Oct 2019 — Tesla made $143 million in Q3 2019 ↗
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