Elon Musk promised a profitable, cash-flow-positive Tesla in Q3 and Q4 by the end of 2018. It happened, but 30 days late.
Delivered — at the time one of his most doubted calls. Tesla posted GAAP net income of $312M with $881M free cash flow in Q3 2018 and $139M net income in Q4 2018, its first back-to-back profitable quarters ever. (The 'no need to raise money' half held only briefly: Tesla raised ~$2.7 billion in May 2019.) CNBC — Tesla posts blowout Q3 2018 profit, shares surge ↗
In April 2018, mid-production-hell, with Tesla burning cash and analysts predicting a multi-billion-dollar capital raise, Musk tweeted at The Economist that Tesla would be profitable and cash-flow positive in both Q3 and Q4 2018 with no need to raise money. Wall Street openly scoffed — and Tesla delivered both quarters, the profitability call he got right when almost nobody believed it.
“I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.”
What happened: Musk was optimistic about a Q1 2019 profit and every quarter after. Tesla reported a Q1 2019 GAAP net loss of $702 million. CNBC Apr 24 2019 — Tesla Q1 2019 loss ↗
“From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around break-even this quarter and profitable next quarter.”
What happened: Musk expected Tesla to be profitable in Q3 2019. Tesla reported a surprise Q3 2019 net profit of $143 million. Ars Technica Oct 2019 — Tesla made $143 million in Q3 2019 ↗
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