AI illustration: 80% of Tesla value will be Optimus
TeslaBusiness & Money
Pending

80% of Tesla value will be Optimus

“~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 1, 2025 · Elon Musk on X (reply to @WholeMarsBlog), Sept 1 2025 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened

Fetched Sep 10 2026: Wikipedia Optimus still has V3 unrevealed and no commercial robot revenue run-rate that could be ~80% of Tesla. Analysts treat Optimus as option value, not the majority of the firm. Deadline 2035. Status stays pending. Wikipedia Optimus (fetched Sep 10 2026) — robot is not 80% of Tesla value yet ↗

The Progression

Sep 1, 2025
The promise: “~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus.” · Elon Musk on X (reply to @WholeMarsBlog), Sept 1 2025 ↗
Today · Sep 10, 2026
Status: Pending · 3,399 days left. Still waiting.

In a September 2025 reply on X, Musk claimed that roughly 80 percent of Tesla's value will be Optimus. The statement stakes most of the company's long-term worth on its humanoid robot program rather than its vehicle business. The claim is tracked against a 2035 deadline and remains pending.

Win the argument. Share the receipt.
The post comes pre-loaded with his quote, the clock, and the share card — one tap and it's settled.
Post the receipt

Receipts

LAST CHECKED 2026-09-10

Tesla’s record

Delivered
47
59% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
32
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
31
On the clock now. All 110 Tesla claims →

Read next

Also Tesla, resolves soonest
Also Tesla, resolves soonest
Also Tesla, resolves soonest

Discussion

Loading…
← Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.