Missed
Human trials by 2020
“Neuralink is looking to start trials on humans next year.”
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”
— Elon Musk · Nov 30, 2022 · Neuralink Show and Tell, Fall 2022 (official Neuralink YouTube) ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — NEURALINK SHOW AND TELL, FALL 2022 (OFFICIAL NEURALINK YOUTUBE)
What actually happened
Not achieved by the 2025 deadline. Neuralink participants set BCI records (first patient Noland Arbaugh reached 8-9+ bits per second on Webgrid, roughly double the prior brain-interface record), but the median able-bodied user scores around 10 BPS — patients approached, and did not surpass, people using their hands. Musk himself was still predicting in November 2025 that recipients would 'soon' beat humans at fast-reaction tasks. MIT Technology Review — What to expect from Neuralink in 2025 ↗
The Progression
Nov 30, 2022
The promise: “To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.” · Neuralink Show and Tell, Fall 2022 (official Neuralink YouTube) ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. Not achieved by the 2025 deadline. Neuralink participants set BCI records (first patient Noland Arbaugh reached 8-9+ bits per second on Webgrid, roughly double the prior brain-interface record), but the median able-bodied user scores around 10 BPS — patients approached, and did not surpass, people using their hands. Musk himself was still predicting in November 2025 that recipients would 'soon' beat humans at fast-reaction tasks. MIT Technology Review — What to expect from Neuralink in 2025 ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.
At Neuralink's Show and Tell event in late 2022, Musk set the goal that implant recipients with quadriplegia would operate a phone 'faster than someone who has working hands' by 2025. Patients set brain-interface records — first recipient Noland Arbaugh reached 8-9+ bits per second on Webgrid, roughly double the prior record — but median able-bodied users score about 10. The bar was approached, not cleared, and the prediction was missed.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11More from the feed
Missed
Missed
Human trials by late 2021
“Neuralink is working super hard to ensure implant safety & is in close communication with the FDA. If thing…”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Human trials in 6 months (mid-2023)
“We've submitted, I think, most of our paperwork to the FDA, and we think probably in about six months we sh…”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → mid-2023 → 2024 · moved 2×
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