Missed
Missed
Tesla delivers 55,000 cars in 2015
“I should correct, even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I'm still confident we could do the…”
Did Tesla reach Apple's $700 billion market cap, as Musk predicted?
On February 11, 2015, Elon Musk predicted Tesla would match Apple's $700B market cap by Feb 11, 2025. It happened on time. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: delivered.
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“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.”
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 15:36 — TESLA Q4 2014 EARNINGS CALL, FEB 11 2015 — FULL AUDIO RECORDING ('ELON MUSK THINKS TESLA WILL BE AS BIG AS APPLE IN 10 YEARS')
What actually happened
Delivered four years early — by the wrong route. Tesla's market cap blew past Apple's 2015 value of ~$700 billion in the first week of January 2021, passing Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company at ~$773 billion, and stayed near or above $1 trillion through the Feb 2025 deadline. The underlying model was wrong (2024 revenue was ~$98B, nowhere near the ~$345B that 50% compounding implied, with margins and P/E wildly different), but the headline market-cap call landed. CNBC — Tesla passes Facebook to become fifth most valuable US company (Jan 7, 2021) ↗
The Progression
Feb 11, 2015
The promise: “If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.” · Tesla Q4 2014 earnings call, Feb 11 2015 — full audio recording ('Elon Musk thinks Tesla will be as big as Apple in 10 years') 15:36 ↗
Jan 7, 2021
Delivered — on time. Delivered four years early — by the wrong route. Tesla's market cap blew past Apple's 2015 value of ~$700 billion in the first week of January 2021, passing Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company at ~$773 billion, and stayed near or above $1 trillion through the Feb 2025 deadline. The underlying model was wrong (2024 revenue was ~$98B, nowhere near the ~$345B that 50% compounding implied, with margins and P/E wildly different), but the headline market-cap call landed. CNBC — Tesla passes Facebook to become fifth most valuable US company (Jan 7, 2021) ↗
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
On the Q4 2014 earnings call, when Tesla was worth about $25 billion and Apple had just become the first $700 billion company, Musk sketched the math for Tesla matching Apple's value by 2025 — and added he'd 'bet that they do occur personally.' Widely mocked at the time, it resolved early: Tesla crossed $700 billion in January 2021. The mechanism he described (50% revenue growth for a decade) never happened; the multiple did.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-26Questions and answers
What exactly did Elon Musk say, and when?
On February 11, 2015, Elon Musk said: “If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap…” (source). That set the date at Feb 11, 2025.
Did it happen?
Yes. This prediction came true on January 7, 2021, on time. Delivered four years early — by the wrong route. Tesla's market cap blew past Apple's 2015 value of ~$700 billion in the first week of January 2021, passing Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company at ~$773 billion, and stayed near or above $1… (CNBC — Tesla passes Facebook to become fifth most valuable US company (Jan 7, 2021))
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Tesla’s record
Delivered
85
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
52
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Tesla production and business predictions
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- Model S discontinued? Elon said S/X production ends Q2 2026Delivered
- Tesla bus: Elon's 2016 urban transit promise, delivered lateDelivered · Late
- Model Y becomes the world's best-selling vehicle in 2023Delivered · Late
- Giga Texas, Berlin, Shanghai: every Gigafactory promiseDelivered · Late
- Tesla Plaid: promised for late 2020, delivered lateDelivered · Late
- Model S Plaid+ with ~500 miles of range in about a yearCancelled
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← 'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015) →
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