Pending
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.”
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — TESLA Q4 2014 EARNINGS CALL, FEB 11 2015 — FULL AUDIO RECORDING ('ELON MUSK THINKS TESLA WILL BE AS BIG AS APPLE IN 10 YEARS')
What actually happened
Delivered four years early — by the wrong route. Tesla's market cap blew past Apple's 2015 value of ~$700 billion in the first week of January 2021, passing Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company at ~$773 billion, and stayed near or above $1 trillion through the Feb 2025 deadline. The underlying model was wrong (2024 revenue was ~$98B, nowhere near the ~$345B that 50% compounding implied, with margins and P/E wildly different), but the headline market-cap call landed. CNBC — Tesla passes Facebook to become fifth most valuable US company (Jan 7, 2021) ↗
The Progression
Feb 11, 2015
The promise: “If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 percent growth rate for 10 years and achieve a 10 percent profitability number and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple's is today — on the order of $700 billion.” · Tesla Q4 2014 earnings call, Feb 11 2015 — full audio recording ('Elon Musk thinks Tesla will be as big as Apple in 10 years') ↗
Jan 7, 2021
Delivered — on time. Delivered four years early — by the wrong route. Tesla's market cap blew past Apple's 2015 value of ~$700 billion in the first week of January 2021, passing Facebook to become the fifth most valuable US company at ~$773 billion, and stayed near or above $1 trillion through the Feb 2025 deadline. The underlying model was wrong (2024 revenue was ~$98B, nowhere near the ~$345B that 50% compounding implied, with margins and P/E wildly different), but the headline market-cap call landed. CNBC — Tesla passes Facebook to become fifth most valuable US company (Jan 7, 2021) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
On the Q4 2014 earnings call, when Tesla was worth about $25 billion and Apple had just become the first $700 billion company, Musk sketched the math for Tesla matching Apple's value by 2025 — and added he'd 'bet that they do occur personally.' Widely mocked at the time, it resolved early: Tesla crossed $700 billion in January 2021. The mechanism he described (50% revenue growth for a decade) never happened; the multiple did.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12More from the feed
Pending
Pending
Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
Delivered
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