Missed
Humans on Mars by 2024
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 6, 2026 · Moonshots podcast #220 transcript (Singju Post) ↗
The fine print
He has made similar 2029/2030 claims before; this is the cleanest dated 2026 restatement.
The Progression
Jan 6, 2026
The promise: “I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.” · Moonshots podcast #220 transcript (Singju Post) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,663 days left. Still waiting.
On the January 2026 Moonshots podcast Musk repeated and sharpened his superintelligence timeline: by 2030, AI collectively smarter than all of humanity combined. It is the upper bound of his two-step AGI ladder (AGI in 2026, superintelligence by 2030) and is one of the most quoted lines from the episode.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Moonshots podcast #220 transcript (Singju Post)
More from the feed
Missed
Cancelled
Humans on Mars by 2026
“Highly confident SpaceX will land humans on Mars about six years from now. If we get lucky, maybe four years.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 → 2029 · moved 2×
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.