Pending
Pending
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 → Mar 2026 → 2026 · moved 3×
xAI predictions, scored.
Grok versions, AI movies, and games — the newest book of promises. Scorecard so far: 14 delivered · 5 missed or cancelled · 15 still open.
The Feed
34 CLAIMS
34 shown
Pending
Pending
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
goalposts: 2026 · moved 0×
Pending
Pending
Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
Pending
Pending
AGI will be achieved in 2026
“I think we'll hit AGI next year in 2026.”
goalposts: 2029 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
Pending
Pending
A new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026
“Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.”
Pending
Pending
xAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026
“We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.”
Pending
Pending
xAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026
“xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need …”
Pending
Pending
Grokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026
“Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.”
Pending
Pending
Grok discovers useful new technologies no later than 2026
“I would expect Grock to yeah literally discover new new technologies that are actually useful no later than…”
Pending
Pending
AI does any digital work at superhuman level by end of 2027
“AI will be able to do anything digital (that doesn’t require shaping atoms) at a superhuman level by the en…”
Pending
Pending
AI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
goalposts: undated (Jun 16 2026 tweet) → 2028-03-01 (G20: next year / 12–18 months) · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
AI will beat all fields by end of 2027 or 2028 latest
“AI will beat all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest.”
Pending
Pending
AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
goalposts: 2030 → Jul 2031 · moved 1×
Pending
Pending
Pending
Terafab will be 50× the size of the Pentagon when complete
“Terafab will be 50 times the size of the Pentagon when complete”
Missed
Missed
Colossus +220k GB300 fully operational next week
“Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet a…”
Missed
Missed
Massive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++…”
Missed
Missed
Grok 4.8 finishes training this week (by Sep 20, 2026)
“Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and…”
Missed
Missed
Grok 3 open-sourced in about 6 months
“The @xAI Grok 2.5 model, which was our best model last year, is now open source. Grok 3 will be made open s…”
Missed
Missed
Grok 3.5 early beta next week (May 2025)
“Next week, Grok 3.5 early beta release to SuperGrok subscribers only.”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026)
“Grok 4.7 comes out in 10 days”
goalposts: 2026-09-11 (in 10 days) → 2026-09-16 (a few more days) · moved 1×
Delivered · Late
Delivered
Delivered
Grok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 2026
“@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more …”
Delivered
Delivered
First half of Cortex active by April 2026
“First half of Cortex will be active next month”
Partial
Partial
Grok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4
“Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes …”
Partial
Partial
Major Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks
“Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.”
Partial
Partial
Grok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025
“Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grokipedia v0.1 published in two weeks (Oct 2025)
“Version 0.1 early beta of Grokipedia will be published in 2 weeks”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
goalposts: 2024 → Feb 2025 · moved 1×
Delivered
Delivered
Grok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok 1.5 out next month (February 2024)
“Yes, Grok 1.5 should be out next month with substantial improvements across the board”
Delivered
Delivered
xAI will open source Grok 'this week' (March 2024)
“This week, @xAI will open source Grok”
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Grok available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week (Nov 2023)
“Yeah. Grok should be available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week.”
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