Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
“5 is Q1.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 6, 2026 · Moonshots podcast #220 transcript — exchange: 'But 5 is soon, right?' / '5 is Q1.' ↗
The fine print
Second goalpost move for Grok 5 (end-2025 -> Q1 2026 -> Q2 2026). The AGI-probability tweet was verified via oembed and could be its own entry if wanted.
The Progression
Jan 6, 2026
The promise: “5 is Q1.” · Moonshots podcast #220 transcript — exchange: 'But 5 is soon, right?' / '5 is Q1.' ↗
Mar 31, 2026
Deadline passed.
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 73 days past due. Never happened.
After missing his August 2025 promise that Grok 5 would ship 'before the end of 2025' (tracker entry #107), Musk moved the goalpost to Q1 2026 on the Moonshots podcast. Q1 2026 ended with Grok 5 still training on the Colossus 2 supercluster; as of June 2026 xAI was pointing to a Q2 window. Related iconic claim: Musk's verified Oct 18, 2025 tweet 'My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising' (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979431839824777673).
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Moonshots podcast #220 transcript — exchange: 'But 5 is soon, right?' / '5 is Q1.'
- [REPORT] Grok 5 missed its Q1 deadline — recap
More from the feed
Pending
Missed
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
/// The Daily Verdict
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