AI illustration: Grok 5 ships in Q1 2026
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Missed

Grok 5 ships in Q1 2026

“5 is Q1.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 6, 2026 · Moonshots podcast #220 — Elon Musk: 'Grok 5 is Q1' ↗
What actually happened

Q1 2026 (ended March 31) closed with no Grok 5 release. The Information reported Nov 14, 2025 that xAI had pushed Grok 5 to the following year, and as of June 2026 it remains unreleased — missing Musk's stated 'Grok 5 is Q1' target. The Information — xAI Delays Grok 5 Release to Next Year (Nov 14 2025) ↗

The Progression

Jan 6, 2026
The promise: “5 is Q1.” · Moonshots podcast #220 — Elon Musk: 'Grok 5 is Q1' ↗
Mar 31, 2026
Deadline passed. Q1 2026 (ended March 31) closed with no Grok 5 release. The Information reported Nov 14, 2025 that xAI had pushed Grok 5 to the following year, and as of June 2026 it remains unreleased — missing Musk's stated 'Grok 5 is Q1' target. The Information — xAI Delays Grok 5 Release to Next Year (Nov 14 2025) ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Missed · 107 days past due. Never happened.

After missing his August 2025 promise that Grok 5 would ship 'before the end of 2025' (tracker entry #107), Musk moved the goalpost to Q1 2026 on the Moonshots podcast. Q1 2026 ended with Grok 5 still training on the Colossus 2 supercluster; as of June 2026 xAI was pointing to a Q2 window. Related iconic claim: Musk's verified Oct 18, 2025 tweet 'My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising' (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979431839824777673).

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LAST CHECKED 2026-07-03

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AI illustration: Grok 5 released before end of 2025Missed
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Grok 5 released before end of 2025

“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
called AUG 2025197 days past due
← AGI will be achieved in 2026 AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030 →
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