Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
— Elon Musk · Jul 1, 2024 · Elon Musk on X, July 1 2024, replying to @beffjezos (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
What actually happened
Grok 3 did not ship by the end of 2024 — TechCrunch flagged the miss on January 2, 2025, noting it added to a trend of delayed frontier models. xAI ultimately released Grok 3 on February 17, 2025, about a month and a half late. TechCrunch — xAI's next-gen Grok model didn't arrive on time ↗
The Progression
Jul 1, 2024
The promise: “Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special” · Elon Musk on X, July 1 2024, replying to @beffjezos (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
Feb 17, 2025
Delivered · Late — 48 days late. Grok 3 did not ship by the end of 2024 — TechCrunch flagged the miss on January 2, 2025, noting it added to a trend of delayed frontier models. xAI ultimately released Grok 3 on February 17, 2025, about a month and a half late. TechCrunch — xAI's next-gen Grok model didn't arrive on time ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 48 days late. It happened — eventually.
The 'Grok 3 end of year' post of July 1, 2024 tied xAI's next frontier model to the new 100,000-H100 Colossus supercluster in Memphis. The model slipped past New Year's and launched February 17, 2025, alongside Musk's claim it was the 'smartest AI on Earth' — a modest delay by Musk standards, but a clean dated miss.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, July 1 2024, replying to @beffjezos (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed)
More from the feed
Pending
Missed
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
/// The Daily Verdict
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