Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
— Elon Musk · Dec 20, 2020 · Elon Musk on Twitter, December 20 2020, replying to @padgeuk (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
What actually happened
The $199/month FSD subscription did not arrive in 'early' 2021 — Tesla launched it on July 17, 2021, roughly a quarter or two after the promised window, and owners with older HW2.5 computers had to pay $1,500 for a hardware upgrade to subscribe. CNBC — Tesla debuts FSD subscription at $199/month ↗
The Progression
Dec 20, 2020
The promise: “Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.” · Elon Musk on Twitter, December 20 2020, replying to @padgeuk (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
Jul 17, 2021
Delivered · Late — 0.3 years late. The $199/month FSD subscription did not arrive in 'early' 2021 — Tesla launched it on July 17, 2021, roughly a quarter or two after the promised window, and owners with older HW2.5 computers had to pay $1,500 for a hardware upgrade to subscribe. CNBC — Tesla debuts FSD subscription at $199/month ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 0.3 years late. It happened — eventually.
The FSD subscription 'early next year' promise of December 20, 2020 followed months of teasing a monthly alternative to the then-$10,000 upfront FSD package. The subscription actually launched July 17, 2021 at $199/month — late by roughly four months even on a generous reading of 'early next year'. Musk had earlier promised the subscription for 'end of 2020' too.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12More from the feed
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