AI illustration: Optimus 10x production ramp each year
TeslaRobots
Pending

Optimus 10x production ramp each year

“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 29, 2025 · Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29 2025 ↗
What actually happened

Fetched Sep 8 2026: the quote is an aspiration to an order-of-magnitude (or half-order) annual ramp, with a 2030 horizon. Tesla has not published an Optimus production rate. Wikipedia still has no V3 production-start date; Q2 2026 language remained 'installing the first-generation lines' / 'later this year.' A 10x year-over-year ramp cannot be scored until a baseline production year exists. Status stays pending. Wikipedia — Optimus (robot), fetched Sep 8 2026: no published production rate to ramp 10x from ↗

The Progression

Jan 29, 2025
The promise: “If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year. But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.” · Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29 2025 ↗
Today · Sep 10, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,573 days left. Still waiting.

On Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call in January 2025, Musk said the company aspired to ramp Optimus production by an order of magnitude per year, allowing that it might achieve 'half an order of magnitude' — still roughly threefold annual growth. The prediction is tracked against a 2030 deadline and remains pending.

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