Missed
Optimus doing factory tasks by 2022
“Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, would be operational in factories by 2022.”
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 29, 2025 · Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29 2025 ↗
What actually happened
Tesla promised 'several thousand' Optimus robots in 2025 (internal plan ~10,000) but reportedly completed only a few hundred, and Musk admitted in January 2026 that none were doing useful factory work in a material way. The V3 redesign and a new Fremont production line pushed volume production into late 2026. Electrek — Tesla pushes Optimus V3 reveal later this year - again ↗
The Progression
Jan 29, 2025
The promise: “The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.” · Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29 2025 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. Tesla promised 'several thousand' Optimus robots in 2025 (internal plan ~10,000) but reportedly completed only a few hundred, and Musk admitted in January 2026 that none were doing useful factory work in a material way. The V3 redesign and a new Fremont production line pushed volume production into late 2026. Electrek — Tesla pushes Optimus V3 reveal later this year - again ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.
On Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call in January 2025, Musk said the internal plan called for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots that year, conceding the real number might be 'several thousand.' Reports put actual 2025 output at only a few hundred units, and Musk acknowledged in January 2026 that none were doing useful factory work in a material way; a V3 redesign pushed volume production into late 2026.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), Jan 29 2025
- [REPORT] mikekalil.com
More from the feed
Missed
Missed
1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Pending
Optimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.