CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 4, 2026 · SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Investing.com), Aug 4 2026 ↗
The fine print
Said on SpaceX's first-ever earnings call (Q2 2026, Aug 4 2026), answering a shareholder question about the Starship human-landing-system. 'The end of next year' from Aug 4 2026 sets the target at end of 2027 for reaching the reliability/safety level needed to put people on Starship. This is the crewed-readiness milestone (safety level for humans), distinct from #242's separate claim about a once-a-day flight cadence; it does not itself promise a crewed flight has flown, only that the safety bar is reached. COO Gwynne Shotwell on the same call offered the more conservative 'boots on the moon in 2028' framing.
The Progression
Aug 4, 2026
The promise: “For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.” · SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Investing.com), Aug 4 2026 ↗
Today · Aug 11, 2026
Status: Pending · 507 days left. Still waiting.
On SpaceX's inaugural earnings call on August 4, 2026, Elon Musk said Starship must first be made highly reliable flying satellites, and that a very high launch rate would let SpaceX reach the safety level needed for humans 'very quickly, probably by the end of next year' — i.e. the end of 2027. Starship had flown 13 uncrewed test flights at the time, none carrying people. The claim sets a concrete, falsifiable bar: crew-rated safety readiness for Starship by the close of 2027.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-08-11- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Investing.com), Aug 4 2026
- [REPORT] TechCrunch — Musk one-upped his execs on SpaceX's first earnings call
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