PendingStarship flies at least once a day within a year
“We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly, and probably a year from now, we will be doing a…”
Elon Musk predicted a $100 billion-plus SpaceX annual run rate by the end of 2026. It hasn't happened yet, with 93 days left.
“As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 4, 2026 · SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call, Elon Musk remarks, Aug 4 2026 (Motley Fool transcript) ↗
What actually happened
Fetched Sep 25 2026: Motley Fool Sep 17 — SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen doubled down that SpaceX is 'on track' for $100 billion-plus ARR by December 2026; a new ~$1.11B/month hosting deal starts Dec 1 (~$13B ARR). That is still a December 2026 target, not a current run-rate. Q2 2026 revenue was $7.81B (~$31B annualized). Deadline has not passed. Status stays pending. Motley Fool Sep 17 2026 — $100B ARR still a year-end target; new $1.11B/mo deal starts Dec 1 (fetched Sep 25) ↗
The Progression
Aug 4, 2026
The promise: “As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year.” · SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call, Elon Musk remarks, Aug 4 2026 (Motley Fool transcript) ↗
Today · Sep 29, 2026
Status: Pending · 93 days left. Still waiting.
On SpaceX's first earnings call as a public company (August 4, 2026), Elon Musk said the company expected to reach a $100 billion-plus annualized revenue run rate in December 2026. That is a near-term checkpoint on the way to his separate $1 trillion annual-revenue target for 2030. SpaceX had just reported $7.81 billion of Q2 2026 revenue, so the December run-rate implies a steep second-half ramp, including cloud-services contracts and the pending Cursor acquisition.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-09-25- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call, Elon Musk remarks, Aug 4 2026 (Motley Fool transcript)
- [REPORT] Observer — Musk: $100B ARR by end of 2026
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
9
47% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
10
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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