Pending
Pending
Tesla shows Optimus doing unscripted tasks on video within a month or two
“So I want to release a video where it is Optimus doing things that are not pre-programmed. I think that is …”
Did Tesla build Australia's big battery in 100 days?
On March 10, 2017, Elon Musk promised Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free by Dec 1, 2017. It happened on time. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: delivered.
First Tesla? Our referral includes 3 months of FSD (Supervised) for first-time buyers.Get a Tesla →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That serious enough for you?”
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
Tesla delivered. The 100 MW / 129 MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia — then the world's largest lithium-ion battery — was built in roughly 60 days from the grid-connection agreement and officially switched on December 1, 2017, comfortably inside the 100-day bet window. One of Musk's cleanest wins. BBC — Tesla mega-battery in Australia activated ↗
The Progression
Mar 10, 2017
The promise: “Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That serious enough for you?” · Elon Musk on Twitter, March 10 2017, replying to Atlassian's Mike Cannon-Brookes (verified via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
Dec 1, 2017
Delivered — on time. Tesla delivered. The 100 MW / 129 MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia — then the world's largest lithium-ion battery — was built in roughly 60 days from the grid-connection agreement and officially switched on December 1, 2017, comfortably inside the 100-day bet window. One of Musk's cleanest wins. BBC — Tesla mega-battery in Australia activated ↗
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
The famous '100 days or it is free' Twitter bet of March 2017 with Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes committed Tesla to building a 100 MW grid battery for blackout-plagued South Australia. The Hornsdale Power Reserve went live December 1, 2017, within the window, and went on to slash grid-stabilization costs — a rare unambiguous early delivery among Musk's public promises.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12Questions and answers
What exactly did Elon Musk say, and when?
On March 10, 2017, Elon Musk said: “Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That serious enough for you?” (source). That set the date at Dec 1, 2017.
Did it happen?
Yes. This prediction came true on December 1, 2017, on time. Tesla delivered. The 100 MW / 129 MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia — then the world's largest lithium-ion battery — was built in roughly 60 days from the grid-connection agreement and officially switched on December 1, 2017, comfortably inside… (BBC — Tesla mega-battery in Australia activated)
Shopping for a Tesla? See is a Tesla worth it, Tesla lease prices and the Tesla referral code.
Tesla’s record
Delivered
85
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
52
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More solar, battery and charging predictions
- Tesla 3 TWh of batteries a year by 2030 (still pending)Pending
- Solar power prediction: the top US source by Feb 27, 2033?Pending
- Solar is the single largest source of electricity byPending
- Tesla 4680 battery: 10 GWh within a year — partly deliveredPartial
- Tesla Model 2 release date: the $25,000 Tesla promisesMissed
- Tesla Battery Day probably in April 2020 (missed)Missed
- Tesla Solar Roof production: 1,000 a week by 2019? cancelledCancelled
- Tesla Solar Roof cost and every Solar Roof promiseMissed
- Supercharger V3 in production around end of 2018 (deliveredDelivered · Late
- Tesla Superchargers in 100% of Europe by 2019? missedMissed
- Three times as many Superchargers by end of 2018 (missed)Missed
- Solar Roof Spanish tile and French slate in production byCancelled
Read next
Also Tesla, resolves soonest
PendingAlso Tesla, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Also Tesla, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
← $3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux) →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion