Missed
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for a launch in about five years. Five years seems like a long time to me... That's our goal: to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 29, 2017 · SpaceX (official channel) — 'Making Life Multiplanetary', Elon Musk at IAC 2017, Adelaide, Sept 29 2017 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — SPACEX (OFFICIAL CHANNEL) — 'MAKING LIFE MULTIPLANETARY', ELON MUSK AT IAC 2017, ADELAIDE, SEPT 29 2017
What actually happened
The 2022 Earth-Mars window closed with Starship (the renamed BFR) never having left the ground. Its first integrated test flight on April 20, 2023 ended in an explosion under four minutes after liftoff, and as of mid-2026 no Starship has flown to Mars — Musk's own target for the first uncrewed Mars attempt has moved to the late-2026/2027 window. CNBC — SpaceX Starship launches in historic first test but explodes mid-flight (April 2023) ↗
The Progression
Sep 29, 2017
The promise: “That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for a launch in about five years. Five years seems like a long time to me... That's our goal: to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous.” · SpaceX (official channel) — 'Making Life Multiplanetary', Elon Musk at IAC 2017, Adelaide, Sept 29 2017 ↗
Dec 31, 2022
Deadline passed. The 2022 Earth-Mars window closed with Starship (the renamed BFR) never having left the ground. Its first integrated test flight on April 20, 2023 ended in an explosion under four minutes after liftoff, and as of mid-2026 no Starship has flown to Mars — Musk's own target for the first uncrewed Mars attempt has moved to the late-2026/2027 window. CNBC — SpaceX Starship launches in historic first test but explodes mid-flight (April 2023) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.
At the 2017 International Astronautical Congress in Adelaide, Musk put a slide on screen showing two BFR cargo ships landing on Mars in 2022 and joked 'that's not a typo — although it is aspirational.' The 2022 window passed before the vehicle's first test flight. A one-year-later restatement of the 2016 IAC Mars architecture (tracked separately as ids 34-35), with the dates moved out and the rocket shrunk.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12More from the feed
Missed
Cancelled
Starship to Mars late 2026
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Cancelled
50% chance Starship to Mars by late 2026
“I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.”
← First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew →
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