Missed
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly four ships — two of which would be crewed.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 29, 2017 · SpaceX (official channel) — 'Making Life Multiplanetary', Elon Musk at IAC 2017, Adelaide, Sept 29 2017 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — SPACEX (OFFICIAL CHANNEL) — 'MAKING LIFE MULTIPLANETARY', ELON MUSK AT IAC 2017, ADELAIDE, SEPT 29 2017
What actually happened
2024 ended with zero Mars flights, crewed or otherwise — Starship spent the year on suborbital-to-orbital test flights, achieving its first booster catch and ocean splashdowns. In September 2024 Musk formally re-baselined the plan: first uncrewed Starships to Mars in the late-2026 window, with crewed flights about four years later if those landings succeed. Space.com — Musk: first Starships to Mars in 2026, crewed flights ~4 years later (Sept 2024) ↗
The Progression
Sep 29, 2017
The promise: “The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly four ships — two of which would be crewed.” · SpaceX (official channel) — 'Making Life Multiplanetary', Elon Musk at IAC 2017, Adelaide, Sept 29 2017 ↗
Dec 31, 2024
Deadline passed. 2024 ended with zero Mars flights, crewed or otherwise — Starship spent the year on suborbital-to-orbital test flights, achieving its first booster catch and ocean splashdowns. In September 2024 Musk formally re-baselined the plan: first uncrewed Starships to Mars in the late-2026 window, with crewed flights about four years later if those landings succeed. Space.com — Musk: first Starships to Mars in 2026, crewed flights ~4 years later (Sept 2024) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.
The second half of the IAC 2017 Mars plan: after two cargo ships in 2022, four ships would fly in the 2024 window — two of them carrying the first humans to Mars, who would find the water source and build the propellant plant. By the actual 2024 window, no Starship had completed a single orbit-and-recover mission, and humans on Mars had slipped to the 2030s in SpaceX's own messaging.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12More from the feed
Missed
Cancelled
Starship to Mars late 2026
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Cancelled
50% chance Starship to Mars by late 2026
“I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.”
← Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018) →
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