Missed
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“I'd say towards the end of the year.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 6, 2026 · Moonshots #220 — answer on when Starship orbital refueling happens in 2026 ↗
The fine print
Fragmentary quote answering a refueling-timing question; verify against episode audio before publishing.
The Progression
Jan 6, 2026
The promise: “I'd say towards the end of the year.” · Moonshots #220 — answer on when Starship orbital refueling happens in 2026 ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 202 days left. Still waiting.
Orbital propellant transfer is the gating technology for any Starship Mars mission, and Musk has called off-Earth refueling the biggest hurdle to hitting the November-December 2026 Mars window. On the Moonshots podcast he placed the first orbital refueling demonstration toward the end of 2026 — a hard, checkable milestone.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11More from the feed
Missed
Cancelled
Starship to Mars late 2026
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Cancelled
50% chance Starship to Mars by late 2026
“I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.”
← Optimus a better surgeon than the best humans in 3 years (by 2029)
FSD approval in Europe (and maybe China) by February 2026 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.