Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
“We should have Dojo operational next year.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 19, 2021 · Tesla AI Day 2021 (official Tesla YouTube channel), Aug 19 2021 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — TESLA AI DAY 2021 (OFFICIAL TESLA YOUTUBE CHANNEL), AUG 19 2021
The fine print
Famous older prediction missing from dataset; the 2025 shutdown makes the whole Dojo arc resolvable.
The Progression
Aug 19, 2021
The promise: “We should have Dojo operational next year.” · Tesla AI Day 2021 (official Tesla YouTube channel), Aug 19 2021 ↗
Dec 31, 2022
Deadline passed.
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 1,259 days past due. Never happened.
At AI Day 2021 Musk said Tesla's custom D1-chip Dojo supercomputer — pitched as the engine for FSD training — would be operational in 2022. Dojo didn't enter production use until July 2023, never displaced Nvidia hardware at scale, and Tesla shut the program down in August 2025, pivoting the team to the AI5/AI6 chips now planned for Terafab.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [VIDEO] Tesla AI Day 2021 (official Tesla YouTube channel), Aug 19 2021
- [REPORT] TechCrunch — Tesla AI Day 2021 highlights
- [REPORT] TechCrunch — Tesla's Dojo, a timeline (program shut down 2025)
More from the feed
Pending
Missed
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
← AI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013) →
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