Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
— Elon Musk · Mar 13, 2024 · Elon Musk on X, Mar 13 2024 ↗
The fine print
Famous older prediction missing from dataset; pairs with the new agi-achieved-in-2026 entry as a goalpost chain.
The Progression
Mar 13, 2024
The promise: “My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.” · Elon Musk on X, Mar 13 2024 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed.
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 163 days past due. Never happened.
In an April 2024 X Spaces interview with Norges Bank's Nicolai Tangen, Musk predicted AI smarter than any individual human around the end of 2025, and smarter than all humans combined within five years. 2025 closed without any system meeting that bar by general assessment — and Musk himself reset the milestone in January 2026, predicting AGI would arrive in 2026 instead.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, Mar 13 2024
- [REPORT] Reuters via US News — X Spaces interview with Nicolai Tangen (archived)
- [REPORT] Fortune coverage
More from the feed
Pending
Missed
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
/// The Daily Verdict
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