AI illustration: AI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
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AI smarter than any single human by end of 2025

“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
— Elon Musk · Mar 13, 2024 · Elon Musk on X, Mar 13 2024 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened

In March 2024 Musk predicted AI would be smarter than any single human by 2025. By end of 2025 no AI was credibly smarter than every individual human; reporting noted the prediction failed, and Musk pushed his AGI estimate to 2026. The end-of-2025 target was missed. Elon Musk Predicts AGI by 2026 (He Predicted AGI by 2025 Last Year) — Gizmodo ↗

The Progression

Mar 13, 2024
The promise: “My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.” · Elon Musk on X, Mar 13 2024 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. In March 2024 Musk predicted AI would be smarter than any single human by 2025. By end of 2025 no AI was credibly smarter than every individual human; reporting noted the prediction failed, and Musk pushed his AGI estimate to 2026. The end-of-2025 target was missed. Elon Musk Predicts AGI by 2026 (He Predicted AGI by 2025 Last Year) — Gizmodo ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Missed · 197 days past due. Never happened.

In an April 2024 X Spaces interview with Norges Bank's Nicolai Tangen, Musk predicted AI smarter than any individual human around the end of 2025, and smarter than all humans combined within five years. 2025 closed without any system meeting that bar by general assessment — and Musk himself reset the milestone in January 2026, predicting AGI would arrive in 2026 instead.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-06-27

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called AUG 2025197 days past due
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