Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
Will solar be the largest share of US power by 2033?
On February 27, 2013, Elon Musk predicted solar would be the largest share of US power by Feb 27, 2033. It hasn't happened yet, with 2,316 days left. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: still pending.
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“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.”
— Elon Musk · Feb 27, 2013 · TED 2013 — 'The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity' (Chris Anderson interview) 11:17 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 11:17 — TED 2013 — 'THE MIND BEHIND TESLA, SPACEX, SOLARCITY' (CHRIS ANDERSON INTERVIEW)
What actually happened
Fetched Oct 24 2026: EIA September STEO press release (Sep 9) puts U.S. electricity generation shares at natural gas 40% in 2025–2027, solar 7% (2025) / 8% (2026) / 9% (2027). Natural gas remains the plurality. Deadline Feb 27 2033. Status stays pending. EIA STEO press release Sep 9 2026 (fetched Oct 24): solar 8% in 2026 vs natural gas 40% ↗
The Progression
Feb 27, 2013
The promise: “I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.” · TED 2013 — 'The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity' (Chris Anderson interview) 11:17 ↗
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Status: Pending · 2,316 days left. Still waiting.
At the TED 2013 conference, while chairman of SolarCity, Musk told Chris Anderson he had bet that solar would become the single largest source of US electricity within about 18-20 years. Solar generation has grown rapidly since, but supplied roughly 7% of US electricity by the mid-2020s, while natural gas remained the largest source. The 20-year window runs to early 2033.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-24Questions and answers
What exactly did Elon Musk say, and when?
On February 27, 2013, Elon Musk said: “I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.” (source). That set the date at Feb 27, 2033.
Did it happen?
No. As of October 26, 2026, this prediction has not come true; the current target is Feb 27, 2033. Fetched Oct 24 2026: EIA September STEO press release (Sep 9) puts U.S. electricity generation shares at natural gas 40% in 2025–2027, solar 7% (2025) / 8% (2026) / 9% (2027). Natural gas remains the plurality. Deadline Feb 27 2033. Status stays pending. (EIA STEO press release Sep 9 2026 (fetched Oct 24): solar 8% in 2026 vs natural gas 40%)
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Tesla’s record
Delivered
85
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
52
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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