Cancelled
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.”
— Elon Musk · Feb 27, 2013 · TED 2013 — 'The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity' (Chris Anderson interview) 11:17 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 11:17 — TED 2013 — 'THE MIND BEHIND TESLA, SPACEX, SOLARCITY' (CHRIS ANDERSON INTERVIEW)
The fine print
Quote verified word-for-word against the official TED YouTube upload's subtitles. He also said the bet was 'roughly 18 years' out (~2031); the entry uses the explicit 'less than 20 years' phrasing.
The Progression
Feb 27, 2013
The promise: “I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.” · TED 2013 — 'The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity' (Chris Anderson interview) 11:17 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Pending · 2,418 days left. Still waiting.
At the TED 2013 conference, while chairman of SolarCity, Musk told Chris Anderson he had bet that solar would become the single largest source of US electricity within about 18-20 years. Solar generation has grown rapidly since, but supplied roughly 7% of US electricity by the mid-2020s, while natural gas remained the largest source. The 20-year window runs to early 2033.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-22More from the feed
Cancelled
Delivered · LateCybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion