MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.”
The Progression
Oct 23, 2016
The promise: “First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.” · Elon Musk's own Reddit AMA answer (u/ElonMuskOfficial), r/spacex 'I am Elon Musk, AMA about becoming a spacefaring civ!', Oct 23 2016 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,264 days left. Still waiting.
In an October 2016 Reddit AMA, Musk said the first crewed Mars mission would carry about a dozen people, tasked with building out and troubleshooting the propellant plant and the Mars Base Alpha power system. The crew-size detail makes this one of his more specific Mars architecture claims. It is tracked against a 2029 deadline and remains pending.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [HIS BLOG] Elon Musk's own Reddit AMA answer (u/ElonMuskOfficial), r/spacex 'I am Elon Musk, AMA about becoming a spacefaring civ!', Oct 23 2016
- [REPORT] en.wikipedia.org
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Missed
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
Pending1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
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