Pending
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.”
The Progression
Oct 23, 2016
The promise: “First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.” · Elon Musk's own Reddit AMA answer (u/ElonMuskOfficial), r/spacex 'I am Elon Musk, AMA about becoming a spacefaring civ!', Oct 23 2016 ↗
Today · Sep 11, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,207 days left. Still waiting.
In an October 2016 Reddit AMA, Musk said the first crewed Mars mission would carry about a dozen people, tasked with building out and troubleshooting the propellant plant and the Mars Base Alpha power system. The crew-size detail makes this one of his more specific Mars architecture claims. It is tracked against a 2029 deadline and remains pending.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-09-07- [HIS BLOG] Elon Musk's own Reddit AMA answer (u/ElonMuskOfficial), r/spacex 'I am Elon Musk, AMA about becoming a spacefaring civ!', Oct 23 2016
- [REPORT] en.wikipedia.org
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
9
50% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
9
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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