Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 6, 2025 · Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened
Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet promised a new FSD model with ~10X parameters, likely public by end of September 2025. Tesla shipped FSD v14.1 on Oct 7, 2025, but that release runs Tesla's 'small' (~1-billion-parameter) model, not the promised 10x model. Musk later confirmed (April 9, 2026) that 'V15 will be the large model,' deferring the ~10x-parameter model to a future version not released as of June 2026. The specific promise was therefore not met within — or for many months after — the stated window. Not a Tesla App — Elon Musk: FSD 10x Parameter Upgrade Now Coming With v15 ↗
The Progression
Aug 6, 2025
The promise: “Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.” · Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025 ↗
Sep 30, 2025
Deadline passed. Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet promised a new FSD model with ~10X parameters, likely public by end of September 2025. Tesla shipped FSD v14.1 on Oct 7, 2025, but that release runs Tesla's 'small' (~1-billion-parameter) model, not the promised 10x model. Musk later confirmed (April 9, 2026) that 'V15 will be the large model,' deferring the ~10x-parameter model to a future version not released as of June 2026. The specific promise was therefore not met within — or for many months after — the stated window. Not a Tesla App — Elon Musk: FSD 10x Parameter Upgrade Now Coming With v15 ↗
Today · Jul 27, 2026
Status: Missed · 300 days past due. Never happened.
In August 2025 Musk said Tesla was training a new FSD model with roughly ten times the parameter count and that it would probably be ready for public release by the end of September 2025. FSD v14.1, carrying the promised 10x parameter increase, began rolling out to early-access customers on October 7, 2025. The prediction tracks how closely Tesla's flagship self-driving software releases follow Musk's stated timelines.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-22- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025
- [REPORT] teslarati.com
- [TWEET] Follow-up, Aug 10 2025: 'The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count...'
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