Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 6, 2025 · Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025 ↗
What actually happened
Delivered a week late. Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet targeted 'end of next month' (Sept 30) for the ~10X-parameter FSD model; Tesla began rolling out FSD v14.1 (software 2025.32.8.5) — the promised 10x-parameter update — to early-access customer cars on October 7, 2025, missing the stated window by about a week. Tesla Oracle — Tesla begins rollout of FSD v14.1 software update 2025.32.8.5 (Oct 7, 2025) ↗
The Progression
Aug 6, 2025
The promise: “Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.” · Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025 ↗
Oct 7, 2025
Delivered · Late — 7 days late. Delivered a week late. Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet targeted 'end of next month' (Sept 30) for the ~10X-parameter FSD model; Tesla began rolling out FSD v14.1 (software 2025.32.8.5) — the promised 10x-parameter update — to early-access customer cars on October 7, 2025, missing the stated window by about a week. Tesla Oracle — Tesla begins rollout of FSD v14.1 software update 2025.32.8.5 (Oct 7, 2025) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 7 days late. It happened — eventually.
In August 2025 Musk said Tesla was training a new FSD model with roughly ten times the parameter count and that it would probably be ready for public release by the end of September 2025. FSD v14.1, carrying the promised 10x parameter increase, began rolling out to early-access customers on October 7, 2025. The prediction tracks how closely Tesla's flagship self-driving software releases follow Musk's stated timelines.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025
- [REPORT] teslarati.com
- [TWEET] Follow-up, Aug 10 2025: 'The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count...'
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