AI illustration: New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
TeslaSelf-Driving
Missed

FSD v14: Elon promised 10x the parameters by Sep 2025

Elon Musk promised a new FSD model with ~10x the parameters by Sep 30, 2025. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.

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“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 6, 2025 · Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025 ↗
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What actually happened

Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet promised a new FSD model with ~10X parameters, likely public by end of September 2025. Tesla shipped FSD v14.1 on Oct 7, 2025 on the ~1-billion-parameter 'small' model. Musk later confirmed (April 9, 2026) that 'V15 will be the large model.' Fetched Sep 26 2026: Wikipedia and Not a Tesla App say Cybercab/robotaxi vehicles are running early FSD v15 builds (10-billion-parameter architecture) but v15 is not yet available for consumer cars; Elluswamy pointed to an October fleet merge and a later customer OTA. A closed/early robotaxi build is not the promised public release (L12/L13). Still missed. Not a Tesla App Sep 18 (fetched Sep 26 2026) — FSD v15 10x model still upcoming for consumer cars; robotaxi early builds only ↗

The Progression

Aug 6, 2025
The promise: “Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.” · Elon Musk on X, Aug 6 2025 ↗
Sep 30, 2025
Deadline passed. Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet promised a new FSD model with ~10X parameters, likely public by end of September 2025. Tesla shipped FSD v14.1 on Oct 7, 2025 on the ~1-billion-parameter 'small' model. Musk later confirmed (April 9, 2026) that 'V15 will be the large model.' Fetched Sep 26 2026: Wikipedia and Not a Tesla App say Cybercab/robotaxi vehicles are running early FSD v15 builds (10-billion-parameter architecture) but v15 is not yet available for consumer cars; Elluswamy pointed to an October fleet merge and a later customer OTA. A closed/early robotaxi build is not the promised public release (L12/L13). Still missed. Not a Tesla App Sep 18 (fetched Sep 26 2026) — FSD v15 10x model still upcoming for consumer cars; robotaxi early builds only ↗
Today · Oct 14, 2026
Status: Missed · 379 days past due. Never happened.

In August 2025 Musk said Tesla was training a new FSD model with roughly ten times the parameter count and that it would probably be ready for public release by the end of September 2025. FSD v14.1, carrying the promised 10x parameter increase, began rolling out to early-access customers on October 7, 2025. The prediction tracks how closely Tesla's flagship self-driving software releases follow Musk's stated timelines.

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Questions about Fsd V14

What did Elon Musk promise about Fsd V14?

On Aug 6, 2025, Elon Musk said: “Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.” (source).

Did it happen?

Musk's Aug 6, 2025 tweet promised a new FSD model with ~10X parameters, likely public by end of September 2025. Tesla shipped FSD v14.1 on Oct 7, 2025 on the ~1-billion-parameter 'small' model. Musk later confirmed (April 9, 2026) that 'V15 will be the large model.' Fetched Sep 26 2026: Wikipedia and Not a Tesla App say Cybercab/robotaxi vehicles are running early FSD v15 builds (10-billion-parameter architecture) but v15 is not yet available for consumer cars; Elluswamy pointed to an October fleet merge and a later customer OTA. A closed/early robotaxi build is not the promised public release (L12/L13). Still missed. (Not a Tesla App Sep 18 (fetched Sep 26 2026) — FSD v15 10x model still upcoming for consumer cars; robotaxi early builds only)

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84
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Deadline passed, still no-show.
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